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First, check out some of these stories and columns about Cook County Board President John Stroger’s stroke here, here, here and here.
Now, let’s hear your predictions for how this impacts the campaign.
UPDATE: The Beachwood Reporter has a very good take on the situation, especially concerning Neil Stenberg’s hugely controversial column and his subsequent interview on WVON.
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 8:19 am
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Previous Post: Gidwitz: “The voters don’t read.”
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em>Durbin straddles both camps.
Should be all camps.
Claypool wins, and that’s best for Stroger. The issue of who gets appointed if he was elected and resigns moot.
No science here, just a bet, but prompted by this which puts some to sleep but makes me think the city can’t do what its done before.
Comment by Bill Baar Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 8:35 am
no Economist story?
Comment by loyalmtgreenwood Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 10:23 am
This knocks Stroger out. We are not talking about a symbolic political office at a level where voters see a need to reaffirm loyalty. Also this is a primary, so there isn’t a level of party affiliation that plays into it. Mr. Stroger is out.
I keep going back to Lane Evans here, which is a similar situation. However, Evans has not yet had to face an real opponent in a primary. So his illness and it’s issues play against a General Election, where party affiliation has saved him.
There are many cases where an incumbant gets a free ride through a primary, (Blagojevich is definately getting one), where they could have been knocked out if challenged. Once annointed, they use partisanship to stay in office.
Like the old USSR, Detroit and Cuba, Chicago still clings to a one party political system. As a result, once a weak incumbant fends off primary challenges, the General Election is merely a facade. Failing to have a two party political system is one of the major factors in Chicago’s continued fall as a economic superpower. Please note today’s Tribune story on how far Cook County’s population is declining. Parties are like underwear; if you don’t change them now and then, you start to stink and are no longer seen as attractive. Chicago has been due for a political party change since 1979.
Chicago has reached a tipping point. Voters who are the catalyst for change within a political system have moved out of Cook County, leaving behind an even more die-hard Democratic voter base. This will make it even more difficult for Chicago to pull out of it’s death spiral demographics. Since it refuses to change, it will go the way of Detroit and continue to decline in population and economics, dragging the entire state down with it.
Regardless of what Blagojevich and his flying monkeys believe, you can’t establish a socialist welfare state where there is no tax base, no economic growth and no future. His welfare plans are exactly what Illinois should avoid, regardless of how his promises of happy dancing children in a rainbow world of delight. Dream on!
Comment by VanillaMan Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 10:24 am
The news of Stroger’s health has been daunting. This really doesn’t help his bid. The way I see it though he didn’t seem to be working hard campaigning anyway. I get the feeling without his recent health dilemma that he’s going to lose anyway.
Comment by Levois Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 11:23 am
I wouldn’t be so hasty in counting John Stroger out.
How many voters even know or understand that he had a stroke, or the severity of it? This stroke came very late, so no one is sure of the extent of his disability, or whether it is mental, or whether it is permanent. No one will before Tuesday. Instead, his doctor has issued some very hopeful assessments for public consumption, while carefully qualifying his statements on the back end.
If it happened a month ago, and he was obviously suffering some sort of cognitive reduction, or was in a wheelchair forever, then it might matter a lot. But now Claypool pulled his ads, and there is a lot of sympaythy running around town. Stroger still has the Daley endorsement.
Comment by Bubs Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 11:40 am
I suspect a lot of people are wondering if they can work with Claypool or want to take their chances with the Cook County Democratic Central Committee — that’ll determine which organizations pull in which directions. And Vanilla Man — that was some of the funniest, most ignorant stuff I’ve read in a long time. Lose the rhetoric if you want to make a real point.
Comment by regular reader Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 12:26 pm
Vanilla man:
When was the last time you were in downtown Chicago? How do you explain all those construction cranes and million dollar condos if it’s a dyeing city?
Comment by Sammy Esposito Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 1:54 pm
How many cook county employees do we have on here that SHOULD be working!! TSK TSK…as I said yesterday Stroger’s leadership or lack there of has left the county government useless, a money pig, and run by inept people…I hope Stroger enjoys his legacy as probably one of the worst politicians ever…
Comment by ISU REP Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 2:07 pm
Vanilla, your hyperbole-laden partisan fantasy would be funny if your believing it weren’t so sad.
First of all, read the article (or at least Baar’s short) - the “tipping point” referenced in the article is just movement into suburban Cook.
And to say Chicago is in a “death spiral” going the way of Detroit flies completely in opposition with the reality (your -ahem- analysis comes right when an article in The Economist says exactly the opposite of what you’ve said).
I’d go on - but that train-wreck of a post defies response.
Comment by SenorAnon. Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 2:18 pm
Correcting myself here - meant to say that the movement was to the suburbs in general - not just Cook. The point being - Chicago is still the region’s economic engine. The Detroit comparison is not apt because Chicago never relied on one single industry - and has adapted well.
No doubt the suburbs (and exurbs) will gain political power. But if you’re thinking this automatically benefits Republicans, you’ve got to stop smoking whatever you’re smoking.
Comment by SenorAnon. Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 2:41 pm
I have no idea what way this election will swing. I just wish we knew more about Stroger’s health, because if he’s too sick to take over, I would rather have Claypool than someone Mike Madigan, the 8th ward, Mayor Daley hand pick.
The devil you know is better than the devil you don’t. Not that Claypool is some devil, he seems like a genuine guy who has a lot of class and dignity. I respect the way he has handled Stroger’s medical problems. I ultimately think Claypool will win this election. But this is Chicago, so we have to wait till Tuesday night.
Comment by Political Prognosticator Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 3:09 pm
What if Claypool wins and a black candidate like Meeks jumps in as a third party candidate? All he would need is 33.4% over Claypool and Perica. Meeks was talking about running as a third party candidate against Blago. Maybe he cuts a deal with Blago and runs for Stroger’s seat.
Comment by Hizzoner Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 3:57 pm
I definitely favor Claypool but will predict he won’t win.
Stroger is a really nice guy who has built up tremendous personal loyalty through the years. He is also a smart political hack who has built support with politicos by giving out jobs and contracts. We need Claypool to reign in the excesses, but that is the primary reason the political machines don’t want to see him to win. The turnout will be low and there will not be enough independents to put Claypool in.
The average voter probably doesn’t realize Stroger had a stroke or realize his age and poor health. Many of those who know are aligned with an organization who know would rather see Stroger win, so he can be replaced by another politico who will give out jobs and contracts.
The other issue is a number of candidates don’t want Stroger out and the African American community apathetic, at best, and pissed off at worst.
One thing I find sad is the limited leadership from independents and business leaders. The reality is a dem is going to win the Cook County Board Presidency. The choice is Claypool or Stroger. Claypool isn’t perfect but he is extremely capable of turning around Cook County government, keeping taxes down and improving services. So where are the businessmen and civic leaders coming forward to help Claypool? They don’t benefit from the jobs and contracts so why are they sitting on the sidelines? They always complain about high taxes but now when they have a chance to do something about it, where are they?
Comment by objective dem Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 10:37 pm
No doubt the suburbs (and exurbs) will gain political power. But if you’re thinking this automatically benefits Republicans, you’ve got to stop smoking whatever you’re smoking.
However, it does not benefit Chicago. And the suburban Dems will not walk in lockstep with a Chicago party boss, once the balance of power tips in their favor. They will defend their parochial interests, much like the suburban Repubs do now. It’s about the constituency, as it should be.
Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 11:31 pm
I found it hard to believe but after seeing the people in Claypools district he is not really doing very well. The voters do not trust him either. I predict he barley wins his own district and possible loses it. As one canvasses a precinct people will sometimes tell you lies but my info comes from a wide geographic area and I keep hearing the same thing. This will give us all something to watch.
Comment by the ole precinct captain Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 11:35 pm
Claypool will win his district at least 3-1, bank on it.
Comment by My backyard Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 11:56 pm
Stroger was seen jogging along the lakefront in the wee hours of the morning with a leprechaun searching for their pot of gold.
Comment by Doogie Howser, MD Friday, Mar 17, 06 @ 7:16 am
Prediction: the County Board President race will be a nail-biter. We’ll see what the Machine can muster-up on a chilly Tuesday…I’m thinking it won’t be as much as previous years.
Comment by Tom DeLay's Mom Friday, Mar 17, 06 @ 9:16 am
I’m going with Stroger in this race, because as you all must know, I spent time in Cook County Hospital when I played the dashing Dr. Doug Ross in the Emmy award winning show, “ER”.
And let me tell you, that place is run like a well oiled machine. In fact, it’s such a well run hospital that I’m sure the only reason Stroger isn’t there is because he doesn’t want to take up the doctors’ and nurses’ time on himself. He wants them to take care of all the other people who are stuck in the waiting room, reading his campaign lit.
I mean, I really got to know John during my years at County General, aka Cook County Hospital. In fact, I was the guy who told him to name the place after himself. It was only in jest, but he ran with it, and more power to him. Hopefully, he can name some other buildings after him if he wins this election.
That’s my 2 cents, take it for what it’s worth. But I am an Academy Award winner now, and some might say that I am better looking than most people, including Claypool. I’m out Chicago, thanks for listening.
Comment by George Clooney Friday, Mar 17, 06 @ 9:49 am