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Big Chicago ward changes - Plus, what’s going on in your precinct today?

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* I told subscribers about this major demographic change in this morning’s Capitol Fax. The stuff about Madigan moving his ward Northward into some of the 23rd Ward was told to subscribers months ago…

Meanwhile, with both the 13th and 14th Wards now overwhelmingly Hispanic, the question is how long both can continue to hold on. Unlike Mr. Burke, Mr. Madigan is not an alderman. But I’m already picking up talk that Mr. Madigan would like his ward to shift into still non-Hispanic white territory in the 23rd Ward.

Whatever happens, the new mayor will have huge influence over the new map. That will give him or her a nice card to keep Messrs. Burke and Madigan in line until the new map is approved.

Good point on the map.

You can see an interactive ward map detailing the population changes by clicking here. Latinos now outnumber whites by about 3-1 in Speaker Madigan’s 13th Ward.

More…

(T)he central core of the city – around the Loop and out toward the Near Northwest Side – are population-heavy. That area could get a new ward. […]

Three of the four largest wards in town now are in or near downtown, the location for dramatic growth in the past decade. Those would be Alderman Brendan Reilly’s Near North Side/Loop 42nd Ward, with 78,742 residents, according to the Census; Alderman Bob Fioretti’s 2nd Ward to the south and west of the 42nd, with 69.367 residents, and Alderman Scott Waguespack’s greater Bucktown 32nd Ward, with 63,701.

As Greg says, that’s about a new Downtown ward right there with just those three numbers.

* More census spin…

The best news Rahm Emanuel got last week didn’t come from his pollster. It came from the United States Census Bureau, when it released the population figures for Chicago.

The city’s population declined by 200,000 — but those were mostly people who wouldn’t have voted for Emanuel. Englewood lost a quarter of its population. The black population that Carol Moseley Braun has been trying to rally accounted for nearly all of Chicago’s population loss.

“The trend is a result for the plan for transformation of the Chicago Housing Authority, and the displacement of 110,000 people,” mayoral candidate William “Dock” Walls told Ward Room. “Some of ’em have left Chicago. They’ve gone to the suburbs, or Indiana.”

On the other hand, the Loop’s population increased 76 percent. The Loop is Rahm Country. Emanuel is getting his best numbers from high-income whites who live along the Lakefront.

What’s going on in your precinct today?

* Related…

* Keys to watching today’s Chicago election

* In Chicago, Mayoral Vote Fails to Draw Big Crowds

* Voters relish having a choice

* Mayoral candidates shake plenty of hands as campaign winds down

* Braun, Chico have same Election Day breakfast spot

* Slow Going In the 50th Ward

* Will election end fake @MayorEmanuel Twitter account? He hints end is near

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Feb 22, 11 @ 12:27 pm

Comments

Less than 20% turnout in 45th so far on NW side

Comment by Anonymous on NW side Tuesday, Feb 22, 11 @ 12:48 pm
It is interesting to see the population shift back towards the central city. If you have every seen early ward maps, much of the urban population was tightly clustered around the former 1st Ward, plus Chicago River and its two branches (hence, the “River Wards”). The outlying wards were huge and included vast areas of open land.

It is as if things are going full circle.

Comment by Esquire Tuesday, Feb 22, 11 @ 12:51 pm
===Emanuel is getting his best numbers from high-income whites who live along the Lakefront.===

Is NBC doing its own internal polling now?

Comment by Obamarama Tuesday, Feb 22, 11 @ 12:54 pm
At about 7:30 this morning, I was voter number 15 in my 1st ward precinct. The Del Valle campaign had someone handing out literature, but no other mayoral campaigns had a presence. Ald. Moreno had about 6 workers there with literature.

Comment by Downstater in Chicago Tuesday, Feb 22, 11 @ 12:58 pm
The link with the maps is not working properly, does not show any ward or precinct info.

Comment by QRBNST Tuesday, Feb 22, 11 @ 1:05 pm
101 out of 654 Registered voters have voted at the 43rd Ward 43rd Precinct. It’s only 1:30.

Comment by JakeCP Tuesday, Feb 22, 11 @ 1:33 pm
Sheila Stocks-Smith is the only campaign I’ve seen active in my precinct. Low turnout in others I’ve heard about.

Oh…is there some other race for mayor today?

Comment by Will Tuesday, Feb 22, 11 @ 1:45 pm
Low turnout in the 11th Ward.

Comment by Park Tuesday, Feb 22, 11 @ 1:46 pm
All reports from those in the field is that turnout is really low. I hear run off being talked about in the 2nd ward. Oh and Reilly is winning big.

Comment by truthteller Tuesday, Feb 22, 11 @ 1:58 pm
Rich said,

“What’s going on in your precinct today?”

The turnout in my precinct is, unbelievably 0.00%. Maybe not so unbelievable considering I live in DuPage County…

Comment by Cincinnatus Tuesday, Feb 22, 11 @ 2:08 pm
Pavlik volunteers have complete polling place coverage. Pretty impressive operation. Wagspack operation basically nonexistent. This one should go to runoff.

Comment by anon Tuesday, Feb 22, 11 @ 2:09 pm
That’s too bad about Scott.

Comment by truthteller Tuesday, Feb 22, 11 @ 2:37 pm
I was 136 out of 702 eligible at 2pm in the 32rd ward. No electioneering going on at all. Scott did need to do a better job with visibility, but between him and SEIU I got eight mailers for him. Pavlik sent maybe three mailers plus a letter from his mom saying what a great son he was. I don’t think this will go to a runoff.

Comment by Burrito Bandit Tuesday, Feb 22, 11 @ 3:13 pm
I,d like to see Waugespack in a run-off as punishment for playing footsie with Kass over the last year.

Turnout very low in Chinatown area…….Medrano/Solis looks like a run-off

Comment by thomas paine Tuesday, Feb 22, 11 @ 3:17 pm
Pan-Asian door hangers are also urging Chinese voters to come out. This may be a prelude to the push for an Asian centered state house district( I belive in the works) or ward in the resdictricting?

Comment by thomas paine Tuesday, Feb 22, 11 @ 3:21 pm
Pavlik and Waugespack guys outside 32nd precinct of 32nd Ward. Pavlik has a nice little palm card featuring a big picture of Rahm.

Comment by JL Tuesday, Feb 22, 11 @ 3:22 pm
“I,d like to see Waugespack in a run-off as punishment for playing footsie with Kass over the last year”

I don’t even know what that means, but, really? That’s why you would like to see Waguespack in a run-off, because he talks to a reporter you seemingly dislike?

Comment by Just Observing Tuesday, Feb 22, 11 @ 3:30 pm
I’d like to add a perspective on what is happening now in the precincts. Non-regular organization aldermanic campaigns in Chicago tend to rely, on election day, on people who work during the day, and volunteer for getting out the vote duty after coming home from work. Around 3:30 pm is when you start having teachers who have finished their classes coming home. They will be joined over the next hour or two by others returning from work.

So, the big get out the vote drive (in addition to phone banks during the day) starts now. It will be interesting to see how turnout develops.

Comment by oakparker Tuesday, Feb 22, 11 @ 3:38 pm
QRBNST,
You need to have JavsScript enabled to see the map.
It does work.

Comment by Ill Valley Tuesday, Feb 22, 11 @ 3:39 pm
Just back from the 31st Ward (Ray Suarez’s ward). At midday, at best, about 10% of registered voters had been in to cast votes. Not sure that a substantial number of voters took advantage of early voting. It’ll be interesting to see what what happens with turn out between now and closing.

Comment by Bob Tuesday, Feb 22, 11 @ 3:42 pm
I heard that pavlik had a nice snow removal operation to demonstrate to 32nd warders what they coulees expect in the way of constituent services under alderman pavlik. People loved it and they loved him. Low turnout isn’t good for wagapack. If pavlik moves votes as good as he moved snow, this thing isn’t over!

Comment by Anon Tuesday, Feb 22, 11 @ 3:45 pm
Stuck my head in 27th ward precincts, low turnout there too. Pretty slow around the 43rd and 46th precincts too from what I’m hearing.

Would lay a very heavy wager that 2nd ward goes to Fioretti - Genita Robinson run-off, Brendan Reilly went heavy backing her this last week and I don’t think that would’ve happened unless he had some good data showing her polling well.

Poor Waguespack if he does end up in a run-off, takes a pretty bad campaign operation to not win a primary outright when you’re one of the only five guys who voted against the widely despised parking meter deal.

Comment by Seamus F Tuesday, Feb 22, 11 @ 3:46 pm
Big polling place, close to downtown Chicago, 3 precincts, early afternoon. Very quiet. Not even a single person handing out palmcards out front.

All bodes well for Rahm I think. Chico doesn’t even have the union guys out in force.

Comment by just sayin' Tuesday, Feb 22, 11 @ 3:51 pm
— “I heard that pavlik had a nice snow removal operation to demonstrate to 32nd warders what they coulees expect in the way of constituent services under alderman pavlik. People loved it and they loved him. Low turnout isn’t good for wagapack. If pavlik moves votes as good as he moved snow, this thing isn’t over!” —

I hardly have followed this race and no longer live in 32, but with a typical ward having 60,000 people, I highly doubt that Pavlik’s operation was able to reach even a fraction of those people with their snow shovelling gestures. They may have picked up a few votes here or there, but there is no way they were able to make some sort of monumental shift in the campaign with their efforts.

Comment by Just Observing Tuesday, Feb 22, 11 @ 3:56 pm
Reilly should mind his own business and keep his nose outta other people’s wards.

Comment by Bill Tuesday, Feb 22, 11 @ 4:03 pm
=Chico doesn’t even have the union guys out in force=

Well, duh. That’s because they are all in Wisconsin! In fact this whole ugly mess in Wisconsin was probably an election stunt by Rahm to get the unions out of town. That guy thinks of everything.

Comment by Jaded Tuesday, Feb 22, 11 @ 4:43 pm
West Austin fairly quiet. Is anyone reading this in the 42nd? Very curious about turnout there.

Comment by Boone Logan Square Tuesday, Feb 22, 11 @ 4:53 pm
#267 of 1000 in 2nd ward. 3 Poll workers for fioretti and no others…but the people inside shouted “here comes the crowd” when two people walked in, so not sure his people are well placed…

Comment by near west Tuesday, Feb 22, 11 @ 5:31 pm
Drove around this afternoon, passed several polling places in 38, 39 and 45. It is like a ghost town. Signs are placed. A few polling places had idle volunteers standing near the entry sidewalks with punch cards, but I never saw a single live voter. 38 and 45 surprised me because there are crowded aldermanic fields in those two.

It is like the Twilight Zone. Maybe a late rush will develop after work.

Comment by Anon Tuesday, Feb 22, 11 @ 5:32 pm
punch cards? Like the old ballots or, (showing my age here) the way we used to program computers?

Comment by cermak_rd Tuesday, Feb 22, 11 @ 5:38 pm
Reilly not only paid for at least one mailing for Genita, he has aided her with staff and volunteers working the polls. Still angry about the Fioretti switch on the Children’s museum vote?

Comment by truthteller Tuesday, Feb 22, 11 @ 5:43 pm
Voter #289 in my 41st ward precinct about an hour ago. That pace would take us over 50%.

Comment by Original Rambler Tuesday, Feb 22, 11 @ 5:47 pm
Look at the changes in the 2nd ward and they favor Fioretti. Blacks went from majority to 41%. White population more than doubled and now equals blacks where ten years ago Blacks outnumbered whites 3 to 1.

Comment by truthteller Tuesday, Feb 22, 11 @ 5:53 pm
12th ward. Low turn out. Cardenas is done. Jose Guereca takes over. Finally some leadership1

Comment by Castle8 Tuesday, Feb 22, 11 @ 5:55 pm
Did we ever see early voting numbers? I think Election Day turnout maybe hard to gauge until we have some hard “historical” data on how many people are choosing to vote early.

Comment by And I Approved This Message Tuesday, Feb 22, 11 @ 5:55 pm
Husband and I voters #129 & 130 in 1st ward out of 574 registered in the precinct, but workers there said the turnout was much better than they expected…

Comment by 1st ward observer Tuesday, Feb 22, 11 @ 6:09 pm
Party addresses as seen on TV….Del Valle somewhere on E. 35th St., Chico at 333 Wacker the Westin, Rahm at 33 S. State which looks to be the Carson Pirie Scott Building cause if it was 333 S. State it would be the Water Dept.! can’t recall where Braunfest is.

Comment by amalia Tuesday, Feb 22, 11 @ 6:09 pm
Things are very sleepy in Champaign County. The only race is one Democratic primary for one Alderman ward in Urbana, and even there one of the candidates wound up endorsing the other about a week ago. Does that mean we all get along really well, or that we don’t care? I hope more the former than the latter.

Comment by jake Tuesday, Feb 22, 11 @ 6:21 pm
Silly season in full effect in 50. You’re going to hear a lot later this week about the nasty Stone tactics up here.

Comment by P. Tuesday, Feb 22, 11 @ 6:23 pm
On Saturday, each voter in my house received a letter from a Pavlik supporter implying that because Wags did not support Gov. Quinn in the recent election and Pavlik did, ipso facto Wags was anti-democrat, anti-abortion, etc., yeah, right.

Comment by 32nd Ward Roscoe Village Tuesday, Feb 22, 11 @ 6:41 pm
So Englewood loses 25% of its population but the Loop increases by 75%.

Have you been to Englewood? Have you been to the Loop? Not the sign of the city in decline.

Speaking of Englewood, catch Derrick Rose in action as soon as you can. Solid citizen, straight outta the West Side, the dude takes the ball up the court, scores and plays defense, too. And he ain’t got his man-strength yet.

–The trend is a result for the plan for transformation of the Chicago Housing Authority, and the displacement of 110,000 people,” mayoral candidate William “Dock” Walls told Ward Room. “Some of ’em have left Chicago. They’ve gone to the suburbs, or Indiana.”–

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Feb 22, 11 @ 7:50 pm
Haven’t seen anyone mention it yet, but the story in the 47th is pretty big. Machine-appointed candidate is losing to a young reform-oriented new to politics candidate. He showed his stuff in the debates, newspapers paid attention and endorsed him. And even though signage was 2-1 against him, it looks like Pawar is winning.

Comment by Daria Tuesday, Feb 22, 11 @ 8:09 pm
Rich,
Can you explain how the mayor’s race garnered only a 37% turnout in cook county, while the 2010 election had a 70% plus turnout? This downstate skeptic smells ballot stuffing in November. Or are my numbers wrong?

Comment by Downstate Tuesday, Feb 22, 11 @ 8:59 pm
===garnered only a 37% turnout in cook county===

Um, Chicago. Not Cook.

And I think it was because people figured it was over before it began. Plus, the alternatives were what? Not much.

Again, if you stay home, you vote for the winner. And that’s what they did.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Feb 22, 11 @ 9:01 pm
Was a poll watcher for Waguespack today, who had every precinct covered all day. So, “@anon” was quite mistaken. Mell spent $180,000 on Pavlik and got 17% of the vote. His utterly absurd letters cost him support. Fritchey’s candidate, Brian Gorman, was humiliated with

Comment by Roscoe Villager Wednesday, Feb 23, 11 @ 12:13 am