Latest Post | Last 10 Posts | Archives
Previous Post: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
Next Post: Gordon bows out, Blagojevich pounces
Posted in:
* It’s really getting difficult to take the Senate Republicans seriously…
An effort to repeal the 66 percent Illinois income tax increase approved earlier this failed in a Senate subcommittee Wednesday.
Sen. Matt Murphy, R-Palatine, sponsored the measure, which was defeated 2-1 in a subcommittee where Democrats had the majority. […]
The brief committee debate pitted Senate President John Cullerton, D-Chicago, who contended that repeal would mean legislators would have to cut an additional $7.2 billion from the budget, versus Murphy, who called the tax increase “a job-killer.”
“You would not need to cut $11 billion. The number would not be that high,” said Murphy, who later suggested that undoing the tax increase would require $8 billion to $9 billion in budget cuts next year.
OK, let’s do some math. Last week, the SGOPs said this…
“We have determined after careful review that in order to reverse the course, we’re going to have to make additional cuts of between 4 and 6 billion dollars to what the governor has proposed,” said Senate Minority Leader Christine Radogno (R-Lemont).
So, replace the approximately $7 billion in expected revenues from the tax hike with budget cuts. Then, add the $4-6 billion in additional cuts that Murphy and his colleagues said are absolutely needed to balance next fiscal year’s budget and you get $11-13 billion. That’s a bit different than the “$8 billion to $9 billion” in cuts that Murphy said yesterday would be needed to balance the budget. Also, without that income tax revenue, more bills won’t be paid this fiscal year, which will make the hole next year even bigger. Maybe $2-3 billion bigger. So now we’re talking up to $16 billion in cuts.
Matt Murphy is one of my favorite legislators, but he needs to get his numbers straight.
* Meanwhile, I told subscribers about this the other day…
The Illinois Senate’s revenue estimate is $1 billion more than the number the Illinois House approved as the ceiling for state spending in the next fiscal year.
The Senate arrived at its projection of almost $34.3 billion by taking the nearly $34.9 billion estimate from the legislature’s Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability (COGFA) and trimming away about $600 million in revenues that would require a break from the federal tax code. The General Assembly has not approved the change needed for those revenues to be realized.
The House has opted for a more conservative estimate of almost $33.2 billion. Gov. Pat Quinn estimates the state will have almost $34 billion to spend on next year’s budget. Quinn’s projection also includes money from the proposed change to the tax code.
COGFA Director Dan Long said the commission’s estimate is more than Quinn’s because of a timing issue with revenues from the recent income tax increase. Long said that some of the money from the increase expected in the current fiscal year will not actually come in until FY 2012. He said the shift is not reflected in Quinn’s numbers.
* Other numbers stuff…
* College Illinois managers say prepaid tuition fund is stable - Plan projected to have 31 percent shortfall, according to news report
* School district finances rebound - Annual state report says fewer districts are in trouble
* House committee decides where state money will go: The general revenue fund is estimated by the House to have $33.2 billion available for fiscal year 2012. Of that, 28.742 percent would go to elementary and secondary education, 5.158 percent is for general services, 8.761 percent for higher education, 50.361 percent for human services and 9.978 percent for public safety.
* GOP senator: Cigarette tax not needed for capital project: Gov. Pat Quinn’s office also does not appear worried about a work stoppage this summer. Spokeswoman Kelly Kraft said building new roads and buildings is helping to bring in money by putting people to work.
* State should fold on video gambling, Cullerton says - Illinois should end controversial plan even before it gets off the ground, Senate president says
* Out with video gambling and in with higher cigarette taxes: State Sen. Kyle McCarter, R-Lebanon, said it would be wrong to reverse course on video gambling because people have already began to make investments in the business.
* Cigarette tax hike advances in Illinois Senate: “People have relied on our representations that we did a deal [on video gaming], the governor signed it and they invested money in this state,” said Senate Minority Leader Christine Radogno, R-Lemont. “Here we are again, yanking the rug out from under people.”
* Cigarette tax increase is a ‘no go‘ for now
* Schools or Jails
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Mar 17, 11 @ 6:22 am
Sorry, comments are closed at this time.
Previous Post: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
Next Post: Gordon bows out, Blagojevich pounces
WordPress Mobile Edition available at alexking.org.
powered by WordPress.
“Mutt Murphy is one of my favorite legislators, but he needs to get his numbers straight.”
Huh? Capt Fax must have become a verrrrrrrry lonely guy
Comment by CircularFiringSquad Thursday, Mar 17, 11 @ 8:21 am
We are in the situation we are in fiscally due to the fact that our legislators cannot think on their feet, and will not think on their own without the okay of the leadership puppetmasters.
The video gaming issue looks like it is a non-starter because certain areas don’t want it and other groups are clamoring for their share or claiming it will create a whole new group of gambling addicts. So it sits there.
Okay so let’s get a little creative, let’s put our thinking caps on, and think real hard…. Ohhhh! (light bulb!!) What if they amended the bill to legalize payouts from all of the machines that are currently sitting in bars and other establishments. Then tax those. This is no small number we are talking about. I do not frequent a lot of bars but I would bet that at least 75% of the bars/establishments I have been in have at least one of these machines if not several. If you are not a trusted regular you play the machines for fun. If you are a trusted regular you get a pay out if you win. I have seen it happen.
This isn’t difficult. The machines are already there. People are already pumping a lot of money into them. Let’s make it legal and tax it. For those who say it wouldn’t be very much money at this point in time I would answer that there are a lot of other things they are passing or cutting that don’t amount to anything compared to this.
If it expands later, then amend the bill to allow it. Like I said, this isn’t difficult.
Comment by Irish Thursday, Mar 17, 11 @ 8:27 am
“It’s really getting difficult to take the Senate Republicans seriously…”
Truer words were never spoken. Although I think that ship sailed quite awhile ago.
Comment by just sayin' Thursday, Mar 17, 11 @ 8:43 am
Yet another drive by from “just sayin”.
Comment by Old Milwaukee Thursday, Mar 17, 11 @ 8:47 am
Senate Minority Leader Christine Radogno, R-Lemont. “Here we are again, yanking the rug out from under people.”—Please, act like an adult. Stop playing politics and pay your bills.
Comment by Watchin & Laughin Thursday, Mar 17, 11 @ 8:58 am
Shouldn’t the Senate GOP unveil their cuts first? Did they forget the Senate GOP pencil, again?
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Mar 17, 11 @ 9:23 am
COGFA has the most reliable numbers, and have been right on revenues for more than any other group. We need to base our numbers on its projections.
Comment by anon Thursday, Mar 17, 11 @ 9:30 am
And no one bothers to ask Matt Murphy where was his “plan” prior to the tax increase in January? Seriously? Never thought about putting another plan on the table when it could have done some good? Really?
The least these Republicans could do is admit they are glad the Democrats raised taxes. We’ve all given up on the GOP acting like adults in this state, but at least stop insulting our intelligence.
Comment by just sayin' Thursday, Mar 17, 11 @ 9:55 am
I’d rather listen to Matt “Guitar” Murphy…
Comment by chiatty Thursday, Mar 17, 11 @ 9:59 am
–The least these Republicans could do is admit they are glad{for pratical and political reasons} the Democrats raised taxes. We’ve all given up on the GOP acting like adults in this state, but at least stop insulting our intelligence.– Here, here.
Comment by better late than.... Thursday, Mar 17, 11 @ 10:45 am
It appears that the Dems are in a hard place. Their constinuencies– public employees, public employee unions, social service providers, and social service recpients are battling for resources that are not available as of yet. R’s, as long as they limit revenue opportunities, will compel the D’s to make the difficult choices that will anger some segment of their political base.
Comment by Truth Seeker Thursday, Mar 17, 11 @ 10:54 am
OK the big cut plan is “out”
Never mind the numbers don’t add up
Let’s focus on the January session. The 4 caucuses did a Madicaid refroms bill. The GOP ran away from tougher reforms….Now they want headlines becuase the will put 15 votes on a bill.
Yikes
Q:Do they really IL voters are that dumb?
N: Nope
Comment by CircularFiringSquad Thursday, Mar 17, 11 @ 10:55 am
You know, Rich, if we just raised the tax rate to 10%, we could probably balance the budget.
Comment by Templar Thursday, Mar 17, 11 @ 11:25 am
Rich,
Your understanding of the Senate Republican budget plan is completely wrong. Thanks for the effort though.
Comment by Jim F Thursday, Mar 17, 11 @ 11:26 am
–Your understanding of the Senate Republican budget plan is completely wrong. Thanks for the effort though.–
There’s a plan? Lay it on us, cousin.
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Mar 17, 11 @ 11:28 am
- wordslinger - Thursday, Mar 17, 11 @ 9:23 am:
“Shouldn’t the Senate GOP unveil their cuts first?”
Did the GOP assume leadership of Illinois government yesterday? I thought leadership implied leading implied being in front. Right now, the “leaders” of state government are Democrats. The GOP plays the part of the loyal opposition. It is the job of Quinn/Madigan/Cullerton to lead.
Comment by Cincinnatus Thursday, Mar 17, 11 @ 11:34 am
- It is the job of Quinn/Madigan/Cullerton to lead. -
You’re right Cinci, the IL GOP should continue to do nothing and propose nothing. It’s worked out so well for them thus far.
Comment by Small Town Liberal Thursday, Mar 17, 11 @ 11:38 am
wordslinger, from the comments you make, you are clearly very informed. As such you would be aware that the Senate Republicans just provided a menu of $6.7 billion in budget cuts. $5 billion of which are needed to balance the budget without borrowing. If you have not seen the plan, I would suggest you do some surfing because it’s now out there for you and the world to see. Thanks for the effort.
Comment by Jim F Thursday, Mar 17, 11 @ 11:42 am
Cincy, the Senate GOP had a dog-and-pony show last week to announce they were going to come back soon with a big brimming bowl of real budget cuts.
So my assumption was that the cuts would come before the brave proposal to cut taxes.
I’ll concede, though, that the Illinois GOP in the GA is a stoutly loyal opposition. They steadfastly refuse to give voters any reason to turn the Dems out, even in the perfect storm 2010 election that saw the GOP nationwide make historic gains in statehouses.
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Mar 17, 11 @ 11:45 am
STL,
There is no reason to believe that any Republican effort will be embraced by The Triumvirate, who will only use Republican to try to provide cover for their lack of discipline.
As Jim F points out, there is a Republican plan. We have never seen a plan from the Democrats that, even with Quinn’s tax increases, balances the budgets without borrowing.
While not true at the state government levels, Republicans handed Democrats a drubbing in the November election of Congressional seats. I am willing to take a wait and see attitude, let the Democrats incompetently rule. Let them gerrymander. See you in 2012.
Comment by Cincinnatus Thursday, Mar 17, 11 @ 11:50 am
(I may get deleted for this comment, so here goes….) Rich, it is getting difficult to take anyone at the State House seriously these days. With only a few minor exceptions nobody is doing anything “real.” Every press release is fake and designed just to get media attention to help people “position” themselves. Really is getting old. And I don’t think singling out the minority party whose only responsibility is to make the majority party do their job right is fair.
Comment by It's Just Me Thursday, Mar 17, 11 @ 11:54 am
Jim F, my surfing gets me stories from last week stating that a menu of $6 billion in cuts would be coming this week. Can you help me out?
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Mar 17, 11 @ 11:59 am
wordslinger,
I am happy to help you out. Please visit www.illinoisrealitycheck.com.
There is a two minute video I hope people watch but the plan it linked at the top of the page. The cuts are there. They are tough/painful but they are real. There is no other way except more borrowing and even higher taxes. That’s the way it is.
Comment by Jim F Thursday, Mar 17, 11 @ 12:07 pm
Jim F., thanks. Anything put down on paper deserves a respectful and thorough read. Hats off to the Senate GOP for finally putting something down.
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Mar 17, 11 @ 12:19 pm
Just briefly read the plan, thanks for the link. Finally something other than obstacles to real debate. I think it is a fair starting point and a much needed counter balance. However, the backlog of bills needs to be paid sooner than 18 months. No one in legsilator seems to understand this impact on Universities, Hospitals, Local Schools, Prisons, Police, Real Human Services, and the Illinois economy in general. They never acknowledge the prompt payment act in the true cost of the unpaid bills. In this case the term “borrowing” is simply a political point that does nothing to address the issue. All in all interesting…now get to the table and quit the stunts.
Comment by better late than.... Thursday, Mar 17, 11 @ 12:40 pm
Better late than never,
I understand we need to pay our bills but the fact is the running debt has been building since Ryan was governor (yes, a Republican). Paying down the backlog without more borrowing can be done but it will take some time. I understand the pain the payment delays are causing but this plan addresses that in as quickly a manner as possible. We will get there. We just need a little time. Keep in mind that as the backlog shrinks, the payment delays shrink as well. In eighteen months, we can and will be back to even.
Comment by Jim F Thursday, Mar 17, 11 @ 12:51 pm
@Cinci:
Your tired old mantra of “the Republicans aren’t in control” is getting old. Why should I or anybody else take them seriously if all they are going to do is crow from the sidelines about how bad things are without offering any real solutions. Whether you believe so or not, it IS THEIR JOB to be involved in the process. If you can’t see that you are just a partisan hack who has no interest in seeing government work.
Comment by Demoralized Thursday, Mar 17, 11 @ 1:00 pm
I see on page 18 it does briefly address the prompt payment act. What will those costs be over 18 months? 18% (1% a month)? Why not speed up the process and restructure a smaller portion of the debt at a lesser interest expense? Saving money, preserving services and jobs. The “borrowing” tag line for this item is not honest. Albeit, long-term debt at a cost of 3.5 billion is not wise, either. As it seems to be suggested that some small portion of this new revenue will cover other gaps…Quinn should be more clear here. June is a long time away. January 2012 is even further….
Comment by better late than.... Thursday, Mar 17, 11 @ 1:04 pm
Demoralized,
Please visit www.illinoisrealitycheck.com
Comment by Jim F Thursday, Mar 17, 11 @ 1:04 pm
better late than . . .
Remember, this is a plan. The Senate Republicans have stated publically that they want to hear other ways to get there. However, I think most people are risk averse to more borrowing.
Also, keep in mind that a portion of the prompt-pay interest would be offset by the borrowing interest - if they borrowed, so the net cost in interest would be less than the 18% you mention. Further, the backlog will be steadily shrinking, so the interest payments will as well. Either way, you are correct to say we need to pay the backlog down - and fast.
Finally, if the revenues and/or cuts come in higher than the proposal assumes, the backlog will decline that much faster.
Comment by Jim F Thursday, Mar 17, 11 @ 1:28 pm
One last point, by not paying bills to Hospitals/medicaid providers the state will leave a lot of FMP matching on the table….that just goes away if not paid in the FY. Is that cost addressed in the plan? Bottom line pay those bills. Thanks for the start of plan…something to discuss.
Comment by better late than.... Thursday, Mar 17, 11 @ 1:37 pm
Shortly before the election, Quinn ran around giving away millions in “grants” and other attempts to buy votes.
One example is in Aurora, where his allegedly corrupt buddy Tom Weisner is mayor. There’s a foolish park being planned by the city that was supposed to be privately funded by donors.
Quinn waltzes in with a $8 million grant at the same time school districts weren’t getting their funds.
My reason for mentioning this is that anyone who thinks there’s no way to cut $7,8 or yes $13 billion is mistaken.
This is a wild and out of control government that needs emergency and dramatic change.
The tax increase only enables the problems to continue instead of hitting the cause head on from pensions to fiscal foolishness.
Republicans SHOULD aggressively seek a repeal and let the Democrat legislators try to defend flawed stance. For the Democrats that truly care about the state and taxpayers, even they will say we need to change.
Comment by Rob Thursday, Mar 17, 11 @ 1:43 pm
Congrats to the Senate Rs. Much of what they propose could be done. I sure didn’t see any publicity on the release of this plan.
Comment by steve schnorf Thursday, Mar 17, 11 @ 1:53 pm
Wow, Radogno is saying that at least half of her GOP caucus supports the plan. So a bare majority of the minority.
Seriously, if the GOP can’t even convince all of its own members in its rather small club, why should the rest of us listen?
Comment by just sayin' Thursday, Mar 17, 11 @ 1:57 pm
just sayin’,
Excellent contribution, however your statement is incorrect. Senator Radogno did not say half her caucus. Thanks for the effort. Now go drink another glass of kool aid.
Comment by Jim F Thursday, Mar 17, 11 @ 2:06 pm
We have a SGOP budget post up now. Go there and comment on it, please.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Mar 17, 11 @ 2:09 pm
- Demoralized - Thursday, Mar 17, 11 @ 1:00 pm:
@Cinci:
“Your tired old mantra of “the Republicans aren’t in control” is getting old. Why should I or anybody else take them seriously if all they are going to do is crow from the sidelines about how bad things are without offering any real solutions.”
I believe my tired old partisan hack comments have been proven true based on the Governor’s most recent statement.
Comment by Cincinnatus Thursday, Mar 17, 11 @ 2:56 pm