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An extremely dangerous idea

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Illinois

* If this happens, all heck will break loose…

When it comes to redrawing the political lines in Illinois, Gov. Pat Quinn has his own special pen called the amendatory veto.

For the first time since the state adopted its Constitution in 1970, one party controls all the branches of government needed to create a new legislative district map based on U.S. Census population figures.

One tool created in that Constitution was the amendatory — or corrective — veto. In an age without computers, it allowed governors to correct technical problems with legislation. Over time, however, governors have wielded their amendatory veto pen with more and more power.

Could Quinn use this power to make changes to any political map that the Democratically-controlled General Assembly sent him? According to several state constitutional experts, the answer is yes.

He could use the AV power, but if he does then the Democratic majority would almost assuredly freak out. They’d have no choice but to accept his AV because that would only require a simple majority. And they would be very, very displeased. This isn’t just another bill we’re talking about here. It’s their life.

The Democrats couldn’t override with three-fifths unless the Republicans went along, and the Republicans won’t go along unless Quinn’s revisions made the map even worse for them. Not likely.

The only way Quinn would even sanely attempt such a thing is if African-American, Hispanic or other Democratic lawmakers were displeased with the map’s results. But if Quinn went ahead without allies or an extremely good reason (like a drafting error), then, man, he’d have some seriously big trouble on his hands.

Rod Blagojevich would probably veto a remap. I doubt Quinn will.

* Speaking of maps, check out this silly contraption of a congressional map produced by somebody at Swing State Project. Click on the pics for larger images.

Statewide…

Chicago-area…

The object was to create a map that has only 4 Republican districts, plus..

1.) Keep all 3 black seats intact; not easy considering hundreds of thousands of blacks have left Chicago over the last decade.

2.) Create two Hispanic seats — ones that would be guaranteed to elect Hispanic representatives.

3.) Keep all currently Democratic-held seats at very high Democratic levels (this includes the minority-majority seats, ofcourse, as well as IL-3, IL-5, IL-9, and IL-12).

4.) Create seats where the incumbent Democrat would keep as much of his or her current constituents as possible.

What this map shows is how impossibly difficult it is to draw a reasonably constitutional congressional map with that many strong Democratic districts. It just can’t be done, especially with that 200,000 population loss in Chicago. The new map is not going to easily produce solid D results.

* Related…

* Editorial: More hearings needed after map is drafted

* Redistricting forums coming

* Redistricting Roundup: Deadlines looming for many states in redistricting process: Speaker of the House Michael Madigan (D) announced the formation of the House Redistricting Committee as well as a new redistricting website. The site includes a timeline, details on the 15 public hearings that have been announced, and access to census data. Thus far only Democrats have been named to the committee.

* Springfield hearing on redistricting attracts little interest so far: As of Friday morning, only one organization — the Springfield branch of the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People — had notified Democrats who control the redistricting process that a representative wanted to testify at the hearing. One other group, the Illinois Farm Bureau, made inquiries but did not register as a witness, Democrats said.

* Illinois House Minority Leader Cross names 5 members to redistricting committee

* Suburban redistricting committee members outline priorities

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Apr 5, 11 @ 10:17 am

Comments

Unfortunately the goofier a thought is the more likely that Quinn will do it and with his new political state CIO he may give it a try at amending the map that he is sent.

It is going to be a long 44+ months.

Comment by Winfrey Tuesday, Apr 5, 11 @ 10:25 am
I love this map. I can’t stop chuckling. Reading the home web-page made my day…or should I say my “Tom Delay”!!

Comment by D.P. Gumby Tuesday, Apr 5, 11 @ 10:44 am
Quinn can be pretty goofy sometimes, but messing with a Dem-drawn map would be nutty.

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Apr 5, 11 @ 10:54 am
The Swing State Project’s proposed 10th District — stretching from Wisconsin to Indiana via the LSD bike path — borders on the morally repugnant.

– MrJM

Comment by MrJM Tuesday, Apr 5, 11 @ 10:55 am
That map kind of looks like Lego Illinois.

Comment by Aldyth Tuesday, Apr 5, 11 @ 11:01 am
My congressman is Bob Dold, but, in that map, I’d live in Jan Schakowsky’s district. If that happens, I hope that State Sen. Matt Murphy would run against her.

Comment by Conservative Veteran Tuesday, Apr 5, 11 @ 11:02 am
I don’t get some of these guys. They draw these congressional districts based on the Obama/McCain split. Obama’s vote is at best a distorted image of the true D/R split in the various precincts. I just once want to see a map with 14 Democratic Districts based on the Quinn/ Brady vote from last year. That is a whole lot closer to reality than the Obama/McCain vote.

I’ve actually played around with this a bit. Yes, it is possible to get 3 AA majority districts. It’s fairly easy (I was able to do it with no high tech software, so it is pretty easy to do) and a whole lot neater than this nonsense. I was unable to get 2 majority Hispanic Districts, but have seen at least 2 examples of where it has been done, so I believe that it can be done–however it will be much uglier than the 3 AA districts. I am also able to get the existing Democratic Districts (3,5,9) to be majority D and am also to convert 1 District 8 or 10
(make your pick )to being majority D. Outside of that, I have been unable to get any of the other D and former D districts (14,17, and 12) to be majority D based on the Quinn/Brady results. 12 is probably safe D as long as Costello wants to run. The other two you can get to a 53/47 Republican tilt and that’s probably the best one can do.
That map is nice for entertainment value, but doesn’r really reflect reality I’m afraid.

train111

Comment by train111 Tuesday, Apr 5, 11 @ 11:15 am
And now the creator of the map will discuss how the districts are “compact and contiguous”… ladies and gentlemen, Mr. Jerry Mander!

Comment by HoosierDaddy Tuesday, Apr 5, 11 @ 11:15 am
I’ve been following redistricting for a lot of years, and this one of the most, um, inventive proposals I’ve seen. I’m assuming that strand of Chicago’s Lake Michigan shoreline that connects the northern and southern parts of the 10th District is mostly beach and parks, with more coyotes in residence than people.

Comment by BobDC Tuesday, Apr 5, 11 @ 11:15 am
A 14-4 map is a pretty heavy lift, but before you call this map a “silly contraption”, maybe you should take a look at Texas’s map.

Comment by Mike Tuesday, Apr 5, 11 @ 11:17 am
I didn’t know anyone who thought that the current 4th Congressional district was “reasonably constitutional” either…

Comment by lake county democrat Tuesday, Apr 5, 11 @ 11:19 am
Springfield and Decatur appear to have been plucked out of otherwise Republican districts by giant Democrat robotic hands.

Comment by Secret Square Tuesday, Apr 5, 11 @ 11:20 am
Is that enough of a population loss to cause problems with nonregression of majority minority districts?

Comment by Ryan from Carrollton Tuesday, Apr 5, 11 @ 11:20 am
Two things, Mike.

1) That goofy map is what it is.

2) Texas is not a role model.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Apr 5, 11 @ 11:21 am
Fair enough. “Texas is not a role model”-Rich Miller. Going on my wall of quotes. My point, though, is maybe a 12-6 or 11-7 map is not so heavy of a lift. And far less Texan.

Comment by Mike Tuesday, Apr 5, 11 @ 11:23 am
–The Swing State Project’s proposed 10th District — stretching from Wisconsin to Indiana via the LSD bike path — borders on the morally repugnant.–

Which is morally repugnant, Wisconsin, Indiana, or both?

Comment by Bigtwich Tuesday, Apr 5, 11 @ 11:28 am
When Dwight and Chicago’s Englewood neighborhood are in the same district, something is funny. As long as we are making funny maps, I want to see Galena and Cairo connected.

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Tuesday, Apr 5, 11 @ 11:30 am
So if the new map angers the Black and/or Latino caucuses, and Quinn uses his A/V power, how much worse can things get for Quinn’s relationship with the Democratic majorities?

Will they ignore his budget requests and block his appointments? They’re doing that already, so really, how much worse can it get if they are “very, very displeased” with Quinn?

Yes, it’s a dangerous idea but at some point, don’t you think Quinn will fight back?

Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Apr 5, 11 @ 11:40 am
I guess I’m just naive,but don’t the feds ever challenge the maps?

Comment by gathersno Tuesday, Apr 5, 11 @ 11:41 am
Gathersno, the DOJ requires states that have a history of minority disenfranchisement to submit districting plans and other voting changes for pre-approval before implementation under the Voting Rights Act.

Outside of that, I believe most challenges come either from the parties, interest groups, or individuals. For the most party political gerrymendering has been declared nonjusticable by the courts for a number of reasons. 1) Redistricting is a political process. 2)Proof of intent is difficult for challengers to prove. 3)Courts have used the argument that just because a member of a party has difficulty getting elected in a district (or a number of districts) it still does not mean that members of the political party are incapable of being elected to other offices in the state like Governor, U.S. Senate, etc.

Comment by Ryan from Carrollton Tuesday, Apr 5, 11 @ 11:51 am
This proposed 12th District would require Costello to drive into Missouri to get to part of his district.

Just for once I would love to see a map that showed compact districts as required by the state constitution.

Comment by Downstate Illinois Tuesday, Apr 5, 11 @ 11:54 am
That is the most ridiculous map I have ever seen. It is time to modernize the Congressional map process to ensure contiguous districts and stop cutting towns in half. I normally don’t support lawsuits, but this is something that deserves the attention of the Illinois Supreme Court.

Comment by Team Sleep Tuesday, Apr 5, 11 @ 12:18 pm
1) I wouldn’t get bent out of shape about that goofy map - it is a Democrat’s wet dream but I don’t see Mike Madigan going near that far.
2) I don’t understand the political upside of Quinn doing an amendatory veto - it’s not like he can just fix one or two districts to please Hispanic or African American constituents, as that would have a domino effect and he’d pretty much be doing the redistricting of the whole state through his office, and then would take the blame.

Comment by Robert Tuesday, Apr 5, 11 @ 12:38 pm
with 118 districts an Illinois House map is a far different creature than a congressional map

Comment by steve schnorf Tuesday, Apr 5, 11 @ 12:39 pm
SDOS,
- As long as we are making funny maps, I want to see Galena and Cairo connected.-

I think the proposed 18th comes close where you have Albion in the same district as parts of Rockford. At least Galena and Cairo share a river. This proposed 18th would be the greatest district ever.

Comment by Cuban Pilot Tuesday, Apr 5, 11 @ 12:54 pm
This map is ultra-gerrymandered and court challenges about it being blanantly illegal would be flying all over the state.

Comment by Segatari Tuesday, Apr 5, 11 @ 12:59 pm
WAY too early in the process to get so riled folks, chill…

Comment by Loop Lady Tuesday, Apr 5, 11 @ 1:02 pm
Let’s see, we’ll have either Dold, Walsh, or Schakowsky as our Congresscritter! Where do I go to resign from Illinois?

Comment by formerpolitico Tuesday, Apr 5, 11 @ 1:07 pm
People, I posted that goofy map to make fun of it. Try not to take it seriously.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Apr 5, 11 @ 1:10 pm
The map is just an extreme example which I trust won’t be the real one.

I do wish that the emphasis on these maps would be the compact and contiguous instead of the political aspects. It may be a political process; but ideally this process could & should be done without any consideration to voting histories of the residents. Aren’t the voters supposed to choose the legislators instead of vice versa? Ummm… I realize that isn’t likely to happen in Illinois; but a person can dream… And yes, I wish I’d win the lotto too.

Comment by Logic not emotion Tuesday, Apr 5, 11 @ 2:09 pm
So, in the spirit of fun-ness, what would it take to make a map that split 14-5 R (without venturing into southern Indiana)?

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Tuesday, Apr 5, 11 @ 2:11 pm
This process may just lead me over the edge to promoting a change to statewide at-large congressional seats — top 18 (or however many districts we have) vote getters in a statewide congressional horse race win two year feedbags.

Comment by Kasich Walker, Jr. Tuesday, Apr 5, 11 @ 4:25 pm
In defense of the above artisan, it should be noted, the “redrawn” IL-17 really doesn’t look that much worse than the actual IL-17.

Aside from that it’s crazy, of course.

Comment by ZC Tuesday, Apr 5, 11 @ 4:46 pm
With enough recreational pharmaceuticals the maps look really neat. Same can be said for real ones. Could explain how they are drawn.

Comment by Bemused Tuesday, Apr 5, 11 @ 8:45 pm