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* Lots of Downstaters have been furious since last November when Gov. Pat Quinn won just three Downstate counties yet managed to hold on to his job. Here’s why…

Discuss.

posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Apr 29, 11 @ 6:56 am

Comments

No big surprise here. The continuing failure of the Illinois State GOP to provide any argument at all to the voters of Cook County as to why they should vote for a Republican is why GOP gov candidates continue to do poorly statewide. Additionally, the failure of the IL State GOP to build a cohesive, comprehensive downstate grassroots organization that registers more GOP voters illustrates why Bill Brady lost in November.

Yes, the IL GOP Victory Centers made more phone calls than any other state in the union in November. Phone calls don’t vote! The State GOP has always had a love/hate relationship with downstate in that it loves the GOP voters downstate but hates to work hard for more voters because the precious powers that be who hail from the NE corner of the state might get their cufflinks dirty.

Look at who won for the GOP in Nov - Rutherford who worked his butt off across Illinois for 4+ years building his own network and not needing the State GOP and Topinka who has made inroads into important voting blocks in the Cook and the Collars. Again, no need for the state GOP or their phone calls.

Sorry. Too much honesty this early in the am?

Comment by SangamoGOP Friday, Apr 29, 11 @ 7:06 am
Quinn’s margin of winning was not that big. Is it too much to ask the downstaters to have a little bit better of a voter turnout for a change? They did it to themselves; maybe they will leqarn something for next election but I doubt it

Comment by Bond_Player Friday, Apr 29, 11 @ 7:14 am
Funny, I don’t recall Chicagoland being furious when downstate voters in a handful of key areas delivered the Democratic nomination for Rod Blagojevich in 2002. Thanks downstate for saving us from Paul Vallas.

Comment by Michelle Flaherty Friday, Apr 29, 11 @ 7:15 am
the numbers are what the numbers are. the lack of jobs, or even a future, in the downstate counties is why their children are fleeing. i’m not sure that they are coming to cook, but they are going somewhere…

Comment by bored now Friday, Apr 29, 11 @ 7:23 am
Perhaps if the GOP would nominate someone towards the center, it would allow the independents a choice. Recent nominees don’t seem to reflect the mood of the State.

Comment by bourbonrich Friday, Apr 29, 11 @ 8:04 am
Er, shouldn’t the cartographer have shown Cook County as blue rather than red?

Seriously, no big surprise here. Our system elects a governor based on “one person, one vote.” More people voted for Quinn. End of story.

Comment by phocion Friday, Apr 29, 11 @ 8:07 am
==Er, shouldn’t the cartographer have shown Cook County as blue rather than red?==
I believe the point of the colors is to differentiate county from counties; not show voting patterns.

I think the primary process kind of messes up the Republicans. Conservatives are voting for who will represent them best if they were elected governor. But who they vote for have almost no chance of getting elected; and instead they wind up with a Democrat who won’t represent their views as well as a Moderate Republican. There’s only so much that campaigning can do.

Comment by Timmeh Friday, Apr 29, 11 @ 8:24 am
Timmeh is right about the primary process in Illinois. But there is also a flip side, the liberals in Chicago can pretty much nominate any loon and get him elected.

Comment by Cincinnatus Friday, Apr 29, 11 @ 8:37 am
#

–the liberals in Chicago can pretty much nominate any loon and get him elected.–

How do they do that when Chicago voters are less than 25% of the electorate? Brady just got outhustled last time. He had a perfect storm of factors in his favor and he couldn’t close the deal.

Comment by wordslinger Friday, Apr 29, 11 @ 8:45 am
word,

Was thinking the loons the Chicago Democrats have nominated (c.f. Blago, Quinn).

Comment by Cincinnatus Friday, Apr 29, 11 @ 8:51 am
Wordslinger has it right…If Dillard had been at the top of the GOP Ticket, or if Brady hadn’t spent his time measuring drapes for the Governor’s Office, Quinn wouldn’t have come close.

Comment by Louis Howe Friday, Apr 29, 11 @ 9:01 am
Cincinnatus….Actually, Chicago dems voted for Vallas in 2002, it was the downstate dems and labor that put Blago over the top.

Comment by Louis Howe Friday, Apr 29, 11 @ 9:03 am
I wouldn’t hate on Barton, because this is excellent and he does a great job, but if this isn’t post census it’s not really that helpful.

Comment by Shore Friday, Apr 29, 11 @ 9:14 am
Shore
It’s based on the number of registered voters in Feb of 2010. What the census says means nothing to the map. The census is in no way tied to registered voters except to say that some 14 counties downstate have more registered voters than they have actual residents of voting age.

train111

Comment by train111 Friday, Apr 29, 11 @ 9:22 am
Those downstate Republicans complaining need to stop whining and get a clue. It’s not like Bill Brady and the GOP couldn’t have pulled more votes out of downstate if they had worked harder. And not like Quinn got no votes in downstate counties. He got healthy percentages in most, and in many counties it was close. The idea that no one downstate wanted Quinn is hogwash. Also, given how low voter turnout was everywhere, not like there weren’t more votes out there for the taking. Downstate Rs need to look in the mirror to see failure.

The stuff about the IL GOP having the “best ground game” or “making the most phone calls” is also hogwash.

In reality there really is no IL GOP. And absent the unique environment of 2010, it’s back to bloodbath time for the IL GOP in 2012. To prepare, most Rs are whining about the loss to Quinn.

Comment by just sayin' Friday, Apr 29, 11 @ 9:39 am
The unions ramped up turnout in Chicago, and downstate turnout wasn’t as high. Combined with Brady not responding to the attacks from AFSCME, IEA and Personal PAC, it was just enough for Quinn to squeak by even though Brady won 16 out of 30 Cook Townships and got more votes than sitting Secretary of State Jim Edgar did in his first run for Governor. The Dillard drivel on hear is ridiculous. If Dillard was a good enough candidate to win the general, he should have been able to win a crowded primary. He wasn’t.

Comment by Amuzing Myself Friday, Apr 29, 11 @ 9:52 am
Amuzing Myself,

Have you forgotten that Dillard faced; one candidate from his home town(Adam A);two more from the County of his home base (Ryan, Shillerstrom), and the former state Chairman who poached his campaign plan and spent a fortune smearing him(McKenna). Dillard was the best candidate and he would have beaten Quinn.

Comment by overcooked Friday, Apr 29, 11 @ 10:11 am
Civics Reminder: Dirt Don’t Vote.

– MrJM

Comment by MrJM Friday, Apr 29, 11 @ 10:14 am
overcooked - woulda, coulda, shoulda. That’s politics.

But I do agree with you Dillard would have beaten Quinn. By a healthy margin I imagine.

Dillard spent too much time name dropping Jim Edgar and not enough time working to demonstrate he could be a leader.

Comment by just sayin' Friday, Apr 29, 11 @ 10:52 am
This whole argument that Dillard was done in by too many candidates from his area is just sour grapes. His “area” is where most of the right wing, rich Repubs live, so why wouldn’t there be more candidates from there. Quinn ran against a candidate from his county and won, and probably beat a tougher candidate than the ones that Dillard faced. The idea that poor Dillard was done in by too many candidates who should not have run can be argued in most elections. Look at how many times Roland Burris screwed up Democrat elections!

Comment by Tom Joad Friday, Apr 29, 11 @ 11:30 am
==Look at who won for the GOP in Nov - Rutherford who worked his butt off across Illinois for 4+ years building his own network and not needing the State GOP and Topinka who has made inroads into important voting blocks in the Cook and the Collars. Again, no need for the state GOP or their phone calls.==

You conveniently left off Kirk, whom the State GOP campaign worked with a lot. Brady’s problem was treating Chicago like a red headed step child, and depending almost solely on others to do the groundwork for him there. It doesn’t work like that.

Comment by ANON Friday, Apr 29, 11 @ 11:42 am
==the precious powers that be who hail from the NE corner of the state might get their cufflinks dirty.==

Also, I wouldn’t exactly consider Rodney Davis from the “NE corner of the state”, unless you’re from metro-east area I guess.

Comment by ANON Friday, Apr 29, 11 @ 11:46 am
That map may be accurate, but it does not reflect the Republican Leadership View. To portray the Republican Leadership View, change the following:

1. Decrease Cook to one-fifth it’s current size, since only a few suburbs matter.

2. Increase DuPage by a factor of five.

3. Increase Lake and Will by a factor of three.

Comment by 42nd Ward Friday, Apr 29, 11 @ 11:51 am
I recall being told that the last time ILGOP Chairman Pat Brady met with the Chicago GOP Chairman was Fall of 2008. Such a leader!

Comment by 42nd Ward Friday, Apr 29, 11 @ 11:58 am
There’s a Chicago gop chairman?

Comment by just sayin' Friday, Apr 29, 11 @ 12:26 pm
Yes, they did a lot for Brady in Chicago. Unfortunately, the Brady Campaign did not.

Comment by 42nd Ward Friday, Apr 29, 11 @ 12:34 pm
I have one answer for Cook County Republicans. James Caporusso. He is the type of person that can win as a Cook County Republican. Strong on budget, moderate on social issues and can work with both sides of the aisle. Without guys like him, the GOP will never win in Cook.

Comment by Cook GOP Friday, Apr 29, 11 @ 12:41 pm
Re: “Gov. Pat Quinn won just three Downstate counties yet managed to hold on to his job. Here’s why…”

Umm, no, not really. There’s plenty of variables under GOP control, like whether or not there was a strong GOP candidate and a strong statewide (not just downstate) campaign. Wasn’t Cook County big and Democratic when Republican Govs Thompson and Ryan were elected?

It appeared to me that when candidate Brady was in Chicagoland (and not too often at that) he was anxious to get back on Southbound I-55 asap.

And then there’s always one’s own GOTV effort. Remember this nugget written in this blog on Tuesday, Nov 9, 2010:

“* I had heard this, but wasn’t able to confirm it last week, but Michael Sneed ran it…

“Contrasting styles: Dem Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan spent the afternoon fielding the phones on Election Day in his 13th ward office . . . while Illinois House GOP leader Tom Cross played golf at Medinah Country Club in the northwest suburbs.”

PS - When you wrote that “Lots of Downstaters have been furious since last November…” you did not note whether or not they were mostly furious at each other, rather than just furious at Cook County for existing within the state boundaries.

Comment by Statewide Friday, Apr 29, 11 @ 12:43 pm
I suppose some anger is inevitable when elections don’t go your way. But this issue just boils down to numbers. cook county is overwhelmingly dominated by Democrats who vote for Democrats, to the point that it controls state politics. All this talk about who carried the most counties is interesting, but mostly unpersuasive because stats don’t matter and final vote totals do. republicans are basically screwed for the foreseeable future on a statewide basis, unless Democrats screw up and nominate a bad (giannoulias) candidate when the Rs have a good one. lousy R against a lousy D results in a D win.

Comment by Jim Friday, Apr 29, 11 @ 12:46 pm
Statewide, you make a great point. Mike Madigan leads his troops by example. I was surprised that no one’s head rolled within the House Minority Leader’s office after the dismal House GOP showing in a huge GOP year.

Comment by Cook GOP Friday, Apr 29, 11 @ 12:47 pm
–All this talk about who carried the most counties is interesting, but mostly unpersuasive because stats don’t matter and final vote totals do. republicans are basically screwed for the foreseeable future on a statewide basis, unless Democrats screw up and nominate a bad (giannoulias) candidate when the Rs have a good one. lousy R against a lousy D results in a D win.–

Republicans need to work a lot harder in Cook County. There are areas in the county where they have no presence at all. That’s crazy. There are GOP votes to be had with some hustle.

Comment by wordslinger Friday, Apr 29, 11 @ 12:50 pm
Yes, we need help getting outreach in the GOP. Too many people just give up on us in Cook County. Just having a candidate on the ballot takes resources away from the machine. That’s what they do by putting token candidates up in Republican strong holds, we need to return the favor and in some areas we might actually be able to pick up a few.

Comment by Cook GOP Friday, Apr 29, 11 @ 12:54 pm
Meh. As much as this election talk is fun; the consequences of Brady winning wouldn’t have been all that great. How much would he have been able to get done as Governor with Madigan and Cullerton?

The issue with Republican candidates isn’t just that they have a low chance of winning; it’s that they might not be able to get very much done once they do get in. They’re going to have to play ball in the Democrats’ court.

Comment by Timmeh Friday, Apr 29, 11 @ 1:30 pm
@ Timmeh

Brady could’ve been the backstop to a completely Democratic map…the subject of this item…that would have been the value of his victory.

Comment by Conservative Republican Friday, Apr 29, 11 @ 1:55 pm
@Conservative Republican

And how much of a victory would that have been? I’m saying that a moderate Republican would be able to compromise with a fully democratic legislature where a conservative Republican would not. Stopping the Democrats from doing whatever they want is nice; but the Governor needs to do something more than prevent one party control.

Comment by Timmeh Friday, Apr 29, 11 @ 2:18 pm
I’d think the share of the electorate in Cook County now is smaller than it was 20 years ago? While downstate certainly lost population (and voters), I’d think much of the growth in voters would have been in the suburbs outside of Cook?

Comment by Robert Friday, Apr 29, 11 @ 2:41 pm