Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar

Johnson predicts GOP remap lawsuit will fail

Posted in:

Illinois

* Congressman Tim Johnson just rented an apartment in Litchfield, which is in the middle of his new congressional district. He talked about the move and his pending run for reelection with the Champaign News Gazette…

“I’ve said before that the (redistricting) process was flawed, that it wasn’t transparent and, frankly, it’s kind of an embarrassment to the Legislature and to good government. But nonetheless I’m not going to go to somebody in Bond County and say, ‘I think this is a flawed process and I hate it but I want you to vote for me.’ The reality is this is the district. We’re going to file a lawsuit but it’s not going to succeed, so you’ve just got to go forward with the way it is.” [Emphasis added.]

That won’t make him too popular with the powers that be, I’m sure.

* Johnson, by the way, has picked up a new Republican primary opponent. Samuel Thomas Spradlin, a Springfield truck driver, has a website, but no plans to raise much money…

“His campaign war chest is approximately $200,000,” Spradlin said. “I’m sure he can make that $2 million overnight. And I’d be lucky to raise $2,000. That’s the truth.”

* Related…

* Let’s Talk About Redistricting

* Redistricting’s Bottom Line Might Surprise You: Democratic gains in just two states, Illinois and California, will almost completely offset the party’s losses elsewhere. On the GOP side, gains in North Carolina, Texas and Georgia almost offset Republican losses in Illinois and California.

* Some Lake County Board Members Cry Foul Over Redistricting

* Mike Boland considers congressional run

* Congressman Shimkus Fears Loss of Ethanol Credits

* Schock pushes bill to end ethanol support

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Jun 21, 11 @ 12:54 pm

Comments

Johnson will cruise to the nomination. Johnson’s politics can sometimes be bizarre over the issues he chooses to be a maverick on, but at least he seems somewhat thoughtful on things. One look at that opponents website and it’s clear he’s not thought out things on a lot of issues.

Comment by Precinct Captain Tuesday, Jun 21, 11 @ 1:08 pm
–That won’t make him too popular with the powers that be, I’m sure.–

I don’t think that’s ever bothered Johnson too much. He used to give Lee Daniels and Chris Freveletti fits in Springfield.

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Jun 21, 11 @ 1:16 pm
The party much sue. They will lose. These aren’t the droids you’re looking for…

Comment by Cincinnatus Tuesday, Jun 21, 11 @ 1:44 pm
Frerichs would have been a great candidate for that district.

I know Hoffman is weighing a run.

Have we heard from Kelleher?

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Tuesday, Jun 21, 11 @ 1:48 pm
He speaks the truth. That money could be better used defending Bobby Schilling or helping Bob Dold in his new area. Those two races - plus the thought of Randy Hultgren & Judy Biggert attracting tough opponents in an Obama year - will require a lot of the GOP’s time and money. This is akin to throwing money in the trash can and then complaining you don’t have money for dinner.

Comment by Team Sleep Tuesday, Jun 21, 11 @ 1:55 pm
“That won’t make him too popular with the powers that be, I’m sure.”

If the Illinois Rep Party had much power to begin with . . . Johnson wouldn’t be popular with them.

Comment by K3_Spfld_Chi Tuesday, Jun 21, 11 @ 2:05 pm
“… an Obama year…”

Meaning in a year Obama is running, right? Certainly you don’t think Obama will have coat tails.

Comment by Cincinnatus Tuesday, Jun 21, 11 @ 2:22 pm
Yes, Cincy, and he will have coattails in Illinois in 2012. Sorry. If that map survives, the Illinois GOP Congressional delegation would be lucky to have 7 members (Roskam, Biggert, Johnson, Hultgren, Shimkus, Manzullo/Kinzinger & Schock). If there’s a brutal Dem primary in the 17th CD, Bobby Schilling might have a chance. That’s going to be a tough district in which to repeat his strong performance from 2010.

Comment by Team Sleep Tuesday, Jun 21, 11 @ 2:30 pm
You really think that the map changes will be swamped by Obama’s coattails in Illinois? I think that the remap would have the same effect on the election whether or not Obama was on the ticket. In fact, given Obama’s approvals, I think it would be more likely to suppress the support of Democrats in general. Can you make a prediction on what would be a bad year for Democrats in Illinois, by that I mean what result would you expect in the three cases of Obama positive, Obama neutral, and Obama negative? Actually, that would be a good QOTD.

Comment by Cincinnatus Tuesday, Jun 21, 11 @ 2:45 pm
==lucky to raise $2,000==

Spradlin was working the crowd at the Sangamon County Fair and came up to our table after the chili cook-off. He gave each of us his card, each of which had whiteout on the district number and handwritten “13″….dang those late maps!

Comment by Vote Quimby! Tuesday, Jun 21, 11 @ 3:01 pm
Where are you guys assuming Biggert runs? 11?

Comment by Whistler Tuesday, Jun 21, 11 @ 3:33 pm
Cincy, if Obama’s numbers lag next November, we can hope for 9 seats out of the 18. That’s about as good as it would get. In that scenario, Bobby Schilling and Bob Dold would win or Bobby Schilling wins and we find a good candidate who can win the new “open” 8th CD. But even that would be a tough road to hoe. My conservative estimate would even be 8 - Bobby Schilling survives and we lose the new 8th & 9th CDs.

Comment by Team Sleep Tuesday, Jun 21, 11 @ 3:34 pm
Whistler - yes, that is my assumption. I don’t think she would run against Mike Quigley.

Comment by Team Sleep Tuesday, Jun 21, 11 @ 3:35 pm
Judy will run in CD11.

Thanks for the analysis, Team Sleep. That scenario sure seems like the Dems didn’t really do what they wanted to do. Anyone else care to chime in?

Comment by Cincinnatus Tuesday, Jun 21, 11 @ 3:53 pm
Well I have heard the old elephants crying and acting all morose, but I don’t agree with their black mood.

2008 was an aberration that will not be repeated. Drawing lines influenced with those numbers gives a portrait that is probably off.

I don’t care though. This is Illinois. You want a future in the GOP? Don’t bother here. No one is going to listen.

Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Jun 21, 11 @ 8:28 pm
Biggert won’t have a chance in CD11. Might be better off going up against Roskam.

Comment by Dan Tuesday, Jun 21, 11 @ 8:35 pm
Boland is still “considering”? He’s been “considering” for well over a year.

Comment by Dirty Red Tuesday, Jun 21, 11 @ 9:22 pm
He’s been “considering” for over a year all over the district though. At least it implies he’s talking to people and not just nose diving into it. I’ve heard many say Koehler just nose dived and his announcement was very sloppy. Will Lee’s announcement was a huge nose dive. Announcing at Koehler’s event? If I were Koehler I’d be annoyed.

Comment by franny Tuesday, Jun 21, 11 @ 10:29 pm
@ Vman: “2008 was an aberration that will not be repeated. Drawing lines influenced with those numbers gives a portrait that is probably off.”

Rich reported some time back that they looked more at 2010 since it was such a conservative year. Tea partiers like Dold and Schilling are going to have to hope for another low Dem turnout.

Comment by G. Willickers Tuesday, Jun 21, 11 @ 11:17 pm
@ Team: “Cincy, if Obama’s numbers lag next November, we can hope for 9 seats out of the 18. That’s about as good as it would get. In that scenario, Bobby Schilling and Bob Dold would win or Bobby Schilling wins and we find a good candidate who can win the new “open” 8th CD.”

Raja’s been working the general area of the 8th for about half a year already but no one’s heard a peep out of any Republican considering a run in the new 8th. Duckworth will also be a force to be reckoned with having almost ousted Roskam in the ruby red old 6th CD (it was still Henry Hyde’s district at that point).

The winner of that high-powered primary will come out looking like a dragon slayer/ rising star/ insert accolade here.

The GOP? Still crickets in the new 8th as Raja and Duckworth suck all the oxygen out of the room (and Duckworth’s not even “in” officially).

It’d be interesting if the GOP comes up with another minority to go against the winner between Raja and Duckworth, but a Dem will take the new 8th in 2012 and might’ve even done so in 2010 had it been a district then.

Comment by G. Willickers Tuesday, Jun 21, 11 @ 11:23 pm
Cinci
Let’s check back after the general election next year to see whether Obama has coattails. Can we agree that if Democrats pick up 3 or 4 congressional seats, that Obama probably helped?

Comment by reform Wednesday, Jun 22, 11 @ 8:20 am
Rich Evans is running for Congress, in the 8th District. He’s a conservative activist who worked for Eric Wallace, Jim Oberweis, and Kathy Salvi.

Based on the 2010 election, I think that a Republican will be elected president, next year, although Democrats will gain 5-10 seats, in the U.S. House.

Comment by Conservative Veteran Wednesday, Jun 22, 11 @ 8:42 am