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* My weekly syndicated newspaper column is kind of an extension of my Sun-Times column last Friday. Have a look…
Illinois Democrats can be excused for feeling more than a little spooked these days.
And there’s probably no greater example about why they are so worried than the stunning announcement earlier this month that longtime Democratic Congressman Jerry Costello won’t run for reelection.
Shock combined with fear was in almost every Democratic voice the day of Costello’s announcement. If Costello was bailing on them, then things must be even worse than they thought. It didn’t help that there appeared to be no “reason” for his decision. His son, state Rep. Jerry Costello, II, immediately defied all expectations by saying he wasn’t interested in the seat, so Costello wasn’t stepping aside for the kid. The congressman wasn’t ill. He didn’t have a job offer. He isn’t under investigation. The widespread conclusion was that it must be the worsening political environment.
And just to drive the point home even further, the national Republicans wildly cheered Costello’s exit and all but taunted him for cowardice for refusing to stand and fight. They confidently predicted victory, and convinced most of the D.C. media to go along with their theory.
Costello’s new district is fractionally less Democratic than his current one, so the Republican bluster carried some weight out East. The Republicans also pointed with pride to a TV attack ad against Costello they aired last summer as evidence that they pushed him out of the race, without mentioning they’d only spent $20,500 on the miniscule buy.
Costello laughed at all the theories and speculation during a long phone conversation the night of his announcement. No, he said, he hadn’t polled recently, as some had claimed. He wasn’t getting out of the race because he thought he’d lose. And he surely wasn’t dropping out because he thought he might be a drag on his son’s first election next year. In fact, he said, the last poll he took before the 2010 election showed he was the most popular Democrat at all levels in his district. He ended up winning that race with just shy of 60 percent during the worst Democratic year since 1946.
As to why he’s leaving, Costello said he was just tired of the whole thing, particularly the commute and the time spent away from home. He said he doesn’t want to cash in by lobbying or consulting in D.C. He wants to stay close to the Metro East area and teach and explore other opportunities.
Costello was constantly on the phone with legislative mapmakers during the General Assembly’s spring session, sometimes calling several times a day to check on his new district map. A couple of those mapmakers were frustrated that they’d drawn a district Costello himself could win. If they’d known he was leaving, they said, they would’ve made some different choices.
The Congressman scoffed at this notion, claiming he’d done his best with the new map to make sure a conservative Democrat could win the district. He said he’d been discussing retirement with his wife since February or March, so crafting a favorable map for his successor had been a high priority.
Costello also said he had talked to two people about running, but wouldn’t say who they were.
As I write this, however, no Democrat has stepped forward to run except a retired self-employed carpenter who has already campaigned against Costello four times. He’s not exactly an A-Lister.
Instead, the most prominent Democrats in St. Clair County have said they have no interest whatsoever in running. St. Clair is Costello’s home base and is one of the most formidable Democratic Party bastions outside Cook County.
The problem appears to be that the same discouragement Costello has about Washington, D.C., is also felt by the people Costello wants to replace him. Frankly, I don’t blame them. Congress is a completely screwed up mess. And the campaign to get there will be fraught with nasty attacks and uncertainty.
The same thing is happening with Democratic candidate recruiters for the state Legislature. They’re having a difficult time finding top notch candidates because Springfield is about as messed up as Washington, DC. The state’s economy is in the tank and despite a January income tax hike the ruling party cannot get a proper handle on the budget. To the average voter, they all look like nincompoops.
A lot can happen in a year, but at this moment in time the Democrats have good reason to be worried.
* Related…
* Retired carpenter plans run for Costello’s seat in Congress
* Field still unsettled: Former state Rep. Jay Hoffman, D-Collinsville, who announced last month that he would run in the 13h District, now is looking into running in the 12th District, currently represented by retiring Rep. Jerry Costello, D-Belleville. Hoffman actually lives in the 12th District and it is considered to be slightly more favorable to a Democratic candidate. Hoffman and his supporters continue to pass nominating petitions in the 13th District, said Scott Kennedy, Hoffman’s campaign manager. But he offered no promises that Hoffman would remain a candidate in the district. “There’s nothing new to report,” Kennedy said Thursday, “and I can’t tell you when there will be.”
* Kane Dems can’t find candidate for chairman
* Jerry Costello due for nice federal pension
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Oct 17, 11 @ 5:43 am
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I don’t think even D.C. screwed up compares to Springfield screwed up.
But dangle the gov’t salary and pension and perks, and they will come.
Comment by just sayin' Monday, Oct 17, 11 @ 7:55 am
I think you can file this as the job is no fun when you are in the minority. If you don’t see that changing anytime soon, why would you stay?
Comment by jeff Monday, Oct 17, 11 @ 8:23 am
Hoffman lives in the 13th district, unless he moved yesterday.
Comment by Louie Monday, Oct 17, 11 @ 8:59 am
The trouble for the Dems starts at the top of the ticket in 2012 and runs down the ballot…nothing new, and not surprising at all given the economy and general state of malcontent in the electorate…
Comment by Loop Lady Monday, Oct 17, 11 @ 10:01 am
Being in the minority in the House of Representatives is a practically useless exercise. Rules are much different than the Senate. The majority can and does ride roughshod.
Comment by wordslinger Monday, Oct 17, 11 @ 10:15 am
I collected sigs for Ilya Sheyman in Highland Park on Saturday and in the 30th Ward for Will Guzzardi on Sunday.
Democrats would have trouble convincing 100% of their base to bother to vote if the election were held today.
Democratic voters are discouraged. They question whether voting makes a difference.
Comment by Carl Nyberg Monday, Oct 17, 11 @ 10:18 am
The cover of new york magazine this morning-not a conservative publication says all you need to know about where the young person vote and democratic base vote is in 2012. It is a picture of a 24 year old man in nyc with “Sucks To Be Us” as the headline. These people won’t vote for republicans but they might not come out for obama and vote democrats down ballot or certainly not do the field grunt work they did last time as college students.
http://nymag.com/nymag/toc/20111024/
Comment by shore Monday, Oct 17, 11 @ 1:51 pm
Have you seen the latest downstate generic polling numbers, especially Downstate? It sure looks like Costello has.
There are demonstrable reasons for Democratic fear.
Comment by Bubs Monday, Oct 17, 11 @ 1:57 pm
Are the Republicon prospects any better? I’m not trying to be snark or anything. I truly don’t know, given the approval ratings for Republicons being lower than the Pres.
@Carl- I’m sympathetic, but tell those signing the petitions to just imagine medicare gone and social security turned into a massive 401-K. Its that simple.
Comment by game over4me Monday, Oct 17, 11 @ 5:25 pm
Shore and I are in agreement for once…but let’s be honest about the reasons we are in this hole…it started with the Bush administrations tax cuts, two wars, and lack of regulation in the investment bank communities…Obama did a great job of getting out the vote with his mantra for change, but can’t govern, is cowering from Wall St. power brokers, and has generally let the country fall further into the abyss by placating Congressional Republicans thinking it may help him in the long run…I’ve been involved with politics for 3o years and I can actually say I am fed up and about to give up on our so called leadership in this country…I have two kids in their twenties and this is not the world I wished they would live in when I was raising them…the guy is right, it sucks to be in his position…
Comment by Loop Lady Monday, Oct 17, 11 @ 9:01 pm