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Congressional Quarterly finds an interesting pattern out there.
The ranks of Democratic governors who have the highest job approval ratings in polls — and who are strongly favored to win re-election this November — includes several who lead states that are among the “reddest,†meaning they favored President Bush for re-election in 2004 and often by wide margins.Paradoxically, the incumbent Democratic governors with the most lackluster approval ratings, including some who face serious challenges in their re-election contests, govern “blue†states that favored Democratic challenger John Kerry over Bush.
Every incumbent Democratic governor seeking re-election in a Bush-voting state has an approval rating above 50 percent. […]
With the exception of highly popular freshman New Hampshire Gov. John Lynch, every blue-state incumbent Democrat seeking another term is just breaking even or has fallen into negative territory in job approval polls.
These chief executives include Oregon’s Theodore R. Kulongoski, Illinois’ Rod R. Blagojevich, Wisconsin’s James E. Doyle, Maine’s John Baldacci, Michigan’s Jennifer M. Granholm and Pennsylvania’s Edward G. Rendell.
The National Journal has this:
Their ‘02 victories crushed the GOP’s grip on midwest GOVs. Four years later, those Dem GOVs (MI’s Granholm , IL’s Blagojevich and WI’s Doyle) are fighting for their lives. Why??
– First, the economy. The midwest is struggling to evolve from its manufacturing past. IN’s Daniels and MO’s Blunt, both GOPers, aren’t up in ‘06, but they also aren’t popular.
– None of the three Dem GOVs has had friendly legislatures. It reminds us of how poorly cong Dems received a Dem president in ‘93 and ‘94.
– These GOVs are also suffering from labor pains. Unlike in red states where Dem GOVs are safer, these three have a heavy union presence. All are struggling to balance labor and centrist policies.
– Expectations? All three replaced GOPers who’d held power for more than a decade. Did they spend too much time re-populating state bureaucracies? Or, perhaps, not enough time?
– In truth, it’s all four factors, and they’re turning the midwest into an unexpected ground zero for GOV races this fall.
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Apr 13, 06 @ 6:52 am
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“None of the three Dem GOVs has had friendly legislatures.”
That wasn’t true for the first three years. The IL Dem legislature gave Blah-Blah everything he wanted, including M-A-S-S-I-V-E debt. If that is now true in Illinois, then it is all Blah-Blah’s fault.
Ra Blah-Blah = divder.
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Apr 13, 06 @ 7:12 am
“None of the three Dem GOVs has had friendly legislatures.”
And whose fault was that???
Comment by Anon Thursday, Apr 13, 06 @ 7:22 am
Someone at the National Journal is smoking something funny. The reasons Blagojevich are in trouble in Illinois have nothing to do with their pre-conceived notions.
A few much more accurate reasons why Blagojevich is in trouble:
1) He is all style and no substance. When people elect a Governor they expect him or her to eventually start actually governing. That’s something Blagojevich seems genetically incapable of doing;
2) His promise of a “New Way of Doing Business” turned out to be “give the no-bid contracts to my campaign contributors and lobbyist buddies, instead of somebody else’s campaign contributors and lobbyist buddies”;
3) His insatiable desire to spend money the state doesn’t have will impoverish Illinois for generations to come and most voters in their hearts know there is a price to be paid for all the press-release initiatives;
4) In both politics and love, it might be amusing and entertaining at first for someone to try to buy your affection, but ultimately people want someone who will earn that affection. Blagojevich treats the voters like he is a rich “john” just out looking to see how much he can get for the taxpayers’ money; and
5) Finally, while it’s unclear if they are corrupt or just incompetent, it is becoming painfully clear to the public that they can’t manage the state.
Comment by Old Elephant Thursday, Apr 13, 06 @ 7:27 am
Old Elephant, you’re right when you say National Journal is missing the mark. But you’re wrong with all your reasons. Those five factors are reasons for only about 5% of us highly-knowledgeable voters. I think, strangely so, the real reason that Blago tanked in the polls and remains there was the public nasty feud with his father in law.
Ask people who don’t follow politics or government, and they can tell you about that feud if nothing else.
Comment by Goodbye Napoleon Thursday, Apr 13, 06 @ 9:29 am
Democratic governors in Red states are more savvy than their counterparts in Blue states. Blue state Democratic governors made huge assumptions that have turned out completely incorrect. Coupled with blue legislatures, these Democratic governors have attempted to turn back the political changes that were evolving during Republican rule, and put into it’s place a blue/socialist agenda, assuming that is what voters wanted in electing them.
Their economies tanked in part due to these anti-business government policies. Another challenge is voters who see the re-enactment of these obsolete policies creating more difficulties than blessings.
In the case of Granholm and Blagojevich, these Democrats were not prepared to be governors. After years of Republican rule, these governors were elected due to their savvy campaigning abilities, and they tried using these same strengths as governors, and failed. In both cases, Granholm and Blagojevich would have been average caretaker governors, following dynamic Democratic ones. However, they are poor choices to govern after decades of opposition party rule.
In both cases, these Democrats needed to do a better job building a talent pool, listening to experienced professionals, and recognizing the requirements their new jobs dictated. Instead, being charming people, they didn’t buckle down and work. In both cases, I find it incredible that the state Democratic party leadership allowed these freshmen to screw up so completely.
I don’t care about party labels, I just care about good governorship. It is a shame when our state has to become a bunny slope for toddling governor-wannabes. It is maddening when these newbies’ bloated egos prevent them from learning on the job. Granholm and Blagojevich need to be replaced by experienced professionals in times like these.
Comment by VanillaMan Monday, Apr 17, 06 @ 10:21 am