Latest Post | Last 10 Posts | Archives
Previous Post: Federal Reserve report projects Illinois economy will outperform Wisconsin and Indiana
Next Post: *** UPDATED x3 - Quinn defends self - Quinn signs bill *** Sneed: Quinn to sign speed cam bill into law
Posted in:
* Carol Marin reports on a rumor that I hadn’t heard…
It has always been assumed that the speaker is preparing a path by which his daughter, Attorney General Lisa Madigan, might one day become governor. And yet a rumor has been gaining steam that Madigan and Senate President John Cullerton are quietly pushing the idea that County Board President Toni Preckwinkle should jump in the 2014 primary. And run against fellow Democrat and incumbent Pat Quinn, whom they disdain.
Preckwinkle’s approval numbers, after all, are a lot better than the sorry state of Quinn’s most recent polls.
Nobody from Preckwinkle, Cullerton, Madigan or Quinn’s camps offers any credence to this rumor. Which could mean it’s true. But also problematic.
Thoughts on this?
*** UPDATE 1 *** Senate President Cullerton’s office just called to say that Cullerton adamantly denies the story. Cullerton, according to the spokesperson, was “shocked” to hear this rumor for the first time when Marin brought it up and is said to be worried that the story could harm his relationship with the governor during the spring session. The spokesperson called the story “irresponsible” several times during the conversation.
*** UPDATE 2 *** From President Preckwinkle’s staff…
The President will be a guest of Governor Quinn at his speech to the City Club
That’ll be fun.
Quinn is speaking at noon tomorrow at Maggiano’s.
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 6:10 am
Sorry, comments are closed at this time.
Previous Post: Federal Reserve report projects Illinois economy will outperform Wisconsin and Indiana
Next Post: *** UPDATED x3 - Quinn defends self - Quinn signs bill *** Sneed: Quinn to sign speed cam bill into law
WordPress Mobile Edition available at alexking.org.
powered by WordPress.
I’d heard that one a few weeks ago from fairly well placed sources. I wouldn’t leave Rahm’s fingerprints off of this one, either. Could be why Quinn ultimately signed the speeding camera law. Preckwinkle would obliterate Quinn in a primary.
Comment by phocion Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 7:00 am
I hope it’s true. I have been very impressed with her.
Comment by Way Way Down Here Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 7:29 am
Thanks for sharing this.
Preckwinkle is a woman with a longer political background without a lot of problems. She could be paving the way for another woman (Lisa Madigan) and breaking a lot of ice for her so it will be easier for Lisa Madigan to win, when her Dad decides the time is right.
Comment by South of the Loop Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 7:49 am
Not real sure about that. Could she win, yeah. Would it get ugly, yeah. Would it leave the nominee damaged goods enough that it might be a problem in the general (depends on the states fiscal condition).
Would be fun to watch
Comment by OneMan Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 7:53 am
I wouldn’t be surprised if this is true. I’m not sure Lisa’s interested in running for governor; she seems to be happy staying with her current position. If she does decide to run, it will be after her father retires.
Comment by Wensicia Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 7:56 am
The deification of Preckwinckle is evolving before our eyes….
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 8:17 am
Toni Preckwinkle has established herself as a budget-cutting reformer. That could play very well in a statewide race. I sense she would give Quinn far more trouble in a primary than Dan Hynes did — if she decides to run.
Her campaign in 2010 was the most impressive one I saw that cycle. This rumor has a logic to it.
Comment by Boone Logan Square Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 8:22 am
If she did run, IL GOP should endorse her too. Admit she’s better for Republican voters than any of the pointless GOP candidates who have run in recent years.
Comment by too obvious Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 8:26 am
Regardless of the truth to it, when I read the column I cringed; it will make an already challenged session that much tougher to get anything done.
Comment by John Danks Fan Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 8:29 am
The problem is she has been in office long enough that things like the morgue can stick to her. Also not sure how ‘fixing Cook County’ plays anyplace besides Cook County.
Yes you can get elected governor via Cook County see Quinn, Pat.
Also I think her support of Berrios could cause her some issues.
Remember the rest of the state thinks it supports Cook County. It isn’t true, but don’t kid yourself. Outside of Cook County it is considered kind of a fact.
Comment by OneMan Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 8:33 am
Quinn has been a weak governor, at best. A strong leader who has demonstrated problem solving abilities would have a very good shot at beating him in a primary.
Comment by Aldyth Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 8:34 am
gak.
Comment by amalia Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 8:35 am
Is she satirizing a Sneed column? If so, bravo.
Comment by The Captain Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 9:00 am
Seems premature. At this point, what benefit would Preckwinkle be to Madigan and Cullterton?
How many election cycles constitute the alleged Grand Plot to run Lisa for governor, anyway? You can’t plot that far out in politics with any certainty.
Comment by wordslinger Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 9:01 am
She is refreshing. Speaks her mind and is knowledgeable on most issues. Would likely smash Quinn in a primary.
Comment by Objective Dem Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 9:03 am
probably the only way madigan et al could get preckwinkle out of the county board presidency. they know where the jobs are (and what they have to protect)!
Comment by bored now Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 9:14 am
Her (Preckwinkle) so-called independence status would soon become lost. Madigan runs Springfield. Governors are simply a fulfillment of the Constitution. And why would Lisa want to be Governor of a state in such dire straits? Pat want to be Guv and while he has his issue, should be able to pull through another election.
Comment by Springfield watcher Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 9:34 am
the candidate they need is arne duncan whose education and obama credentials maybe able to win over suburban voters. I think preckwinkle is going to have a lot of trouble in the suburbs and much more than they think. She has a nasty radogno type scowl on tv, has taken positions on things like immigration and drugs that will play badly and “cook county reformer” these days is a term worth as much as “jamaican bobsled team”.
Comment by Shore Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 9:34 am
The only thing that can make this idea seem remotely plausable in this conspiracy of politcs is that of the Speaker does not want Lisa to be the “bad guy” in tough budget decisions that Quinn is not making 3 years from now.
Having Toni as the “guy”, Toni gets to be the Guv who does all the dirty work, and Lisa is the Guv who can get new ideas, (and new, expensive, Speaker-friendly progams) done without monetary issues of a bad Fiscal Illinois.
Quinn is not their “guy”, and the state’s fiscal outlook ain’t gettin’ better in 3 years, the Prez and the Speaker … “need a buffer”.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 9:39 am
Saying that Quinn has been a weak governor is being kind. The one thing that most will agree on is that Quinn will not be Governor beyond his term of office, no matter whether he is defeated in the primary, or taken out in the general.
Comment by Cassiopeia Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 9:42 am
Actually, I have another thought … both the Prez and the Speaker got their maps, they are going to be far more closer to Veto-Proofing their chambers than anything else, so why not just dump Quinn any way you can.
After the map, I don’t see much that Quinn can do for either leader at this point, and floating possible primary challengers that the Prez and Speaker like over Quinn is a pretty good thing to have over Quinn.
Unless Quinn decides not to run next time …
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 9:51 am
That isn’t much of a denial. I am guessing if “when he heard it the first time” the Senate President had shot it down instead of being “shocked” the column wouldn’t have been written. Whatever you think of her, Carol Marin wouldn’t go that far out there with no credible sources….she isn’t Sneed, she doesn’t have a gossip column. If the principles denied the premise, she probably wouldn’t have written the story.
Comment by Raising Kane Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 10:02 am
All I know is MJM’s foray into Gubernotorial politics has failed many times. The best he could do for her is stay behind the curtain send her boat loads of $ and stay quiet.
Comment by Obamas Puppy Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 10:02 am
Isn’t it time to put away the “Mike Madigan controls Lisa Madigan” meme? I believe that they are closely allied, but after all this time let’s recognize that Lisa Madigan is a political force in her own right.
Having said that, it’s my belief that both Madigans know that Lisa Madigan should not be Governor as long as Mike Madigan remains Speaker. If — and it bears repeating, IF — there is any truth to the rumor, I think it says more about the Speaker’s plans to remain Speaker than about Lisa Madigan.
Comment by The Other Anonymous Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 10:03 am
Of COURSE they do - not officially, mind you. Pushing President Preckwinkle to Springfield takes her off the board in the Chicago metro area, making it easier for Speaker Madigan, and to a lesser extent President Cullerton, to put someone friendlier to them in her chair and leaving more cover for his extended shenanigans here. Toni is a true reformer, socially progressive and fiscally conservative, and as such she is a threat to a Speaker whose law practice has been enriched for decades by conflicted real estate and property tax clients. All that Governor Quinn really needs is an NFL-caliber Chief of Staff and their inside baseball skullduggery has no legs.
Comment by ericd1112 Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 10:07 am
===Toni is a true reformer, socially progressive and fiscally conservative, and as such she is a threat to a Speaker whose law practice has been enriched for decades by conflicted real estate and property tax clients. ===
Yeah, and she’d have no power whatsoever as governor to do anything about that. Sheesh, man, think about what you’re saying there.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 10:10 am
Toni would be 67 as she embarked upon her first-ever state-wide race, attempting to knock off a sitting governor … and after three more years of county government scandals (like the morgue) … just sayin …
Comment by Anon Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 10:10 am
i don’t think the speaker controls his daughter, and i note that she has political skills that are all her own. i can’t believe that i am the only one who has told her that i would love to support her future race for governor, but there is no way in hades that i would support her as long as her father is speaker (or, for that matter, party chair).
the speaker has to know that there are other SDs who could not support lisa under those circumstances. personally, i’m thrilled that we have an independent gadfly in the governor’s office to make these difficult, terrible choices right now…
Comment by bored now Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 10:12 am
I’ve long thought that governors/county executives/mayors/businesspersons make for better higher-up elected officials should they attempt a step-up in politics. Running a town, city, county, state or large firm (or even your own successful small business) gives you the insight into what needs to be done from micromanagement and big-picture perspectives. If Ms. Preckwinkle can keep the Cook County budget in check and shows an aptitude towards or promise of turning around our fair state, she would be an ideal candidate for the Dems to back against Quinn. I actually liked Bob Schillerstrom in the 2010 GOP Primary (before he dropped out, of course). He actually ran a large county and did what was necessary to bring a budget in check. That’s not easy.
Comment by Team Sleep Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 10:15 am
“And run against fellow Democrat and incumbent Pat Quinn, whom they disdain.”
Disdain?! No punches pulled there. Perhaps we need a springtime equivalent of Festivus to get those grievances aired. We already seem to be seeing some flexing in preparation for the feats of strength.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 10:16 am
Illinois needs a mandatory retirement age for elected politicians.
Comment by Bill Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 10:19 am
Rich, I do indeed think about such things. Do you honestly think that a bill addressing the conflict I’m referencing ever - ever - makes it to the floor, much less to a Gov. Preckwinkle’s desk, so long as Mike Madigan is both Speaker and DPI Chair? In Cook County she has far more ability to bring it up as an issue and far more direct leverage. And, as I am led to believe by folks here that I trust, such an effort may be in the offing. It will be remarkably indirect but it’s the difference between one person playing chess and the other playing go.
Comment by ericd1112 Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 10:22 am
apologies for the dumb question -why is it assumed that Lisa Madigan’s future is governor rather than senator?
I’d think that senator would be better for her since it would do more to remove her from real or imagined conflicts of interest with her father, or from cleaning up budget mess that her father was partially responsible for.
Comment by Robert Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 10:24 am
I suppose “Toni Preckwinkle is a conservative budget cutter” is somewhat more believable than “Toni Preckwinkle is a political, reformist outsider”
Kudos to the marketing people.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 10:26 am
Robert - why would Lisa want to spend five days a week in D.C. for session and then have to spend at least one day every two weeks touring downstate? If you take a look at what Senator Kirk did before he suffered his stroke, he routinely spent at least two days per month traveling south of I-80 - and that was the minimum. The in-state travel during non-session weeks is even more brutal.
Comment by Team Sleep Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 10:27 am
===apologies for the dumb question -why is it assumed that Lisa Madigan’s future is governor rather than senator?===
Lisa’s young family is the usual response to a DC position. You can’t be all over the state, (like statewides do as well), then throw in the constant travel to DC, and let’s not forget the national stage.
If we believe Lisa, and she has given no one the opportunity NOT to believe her, than Lisa isn’t looking to be in DC for 4 days, Peoria for the day, than Carbondale for a day, fly north, get a new “suitcase” overnight in Chicago, and start the week all over again.
The time away from the her young family makes the Senate job a “non-starter”
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 10:33 am
On a related note, I’ve heard rumors too that I can’t find any factual substantiation for, which is evidence that they are true.
Moreover I was sitting in Mike Madigan’s seat while I mulled them over and I know Rich Miller very well, which makes me a well-placed authority.
Did I forget to mention that there was alcohol involved?
The only reason to float rumors of Preckwinkle running for Governor is to nix the idea of her running for Mayor.
Just as the idea of Lisa Madigan running for Governor was floated to distract from her potential to run for Mayor.
If Lisa had announced, I doubt Rahm would have gotten off the ground.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 10:33 am
President Preckwinkle is having a better term so far than Gov. Quinn, and is improving the reputation of Chicago Democrats.
She’s the most competent elected official in the state right now, keeping her pledge to repeal the notorious Stroger sales tax hike while cutting headcount, streamlining the county bureaucracy and balancing the budget.
If she can clean out the Augean Stables in the county of Cook, she may be just what our State needs to deal with its challenges.
Comment by reformer Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 10:37 am
Shore
You doubt Toni would play well in the suburbs. That wasn’t true when she landslided Republican Roger Keats in the suburbs. Keats even had the Daily Herald endorsement.
Toni carried the townships of Hanover, Leyden, Lyons, Maine, New Trier, Northfield, River Forest, Riverside, Schaumburg and Worth, all of which were one-time GOP strongholds.
Comment by reformer Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 10:49 am
@reformer -
See my post above.
The only goal of floating rumors that Preckwinkle is running for governor in 2014 is to stifle the idea of her running for mayor in 2015.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 10:51 am
-reformer-
Are you calling the Keats/Preckwinkle race … a “race”?
Ya had me, then you lost me.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 10:52 am
YDD: great comment.
The first thing I want to know: who is floating this rumor? Marin is more careful and professional than many of her peers, so it’s not just some bar talk — someone’s pushing it.
This could even be about someone wanting Toni’s job.
Toni’s flying high right now, deservedly so, but she’s not Superwoman. Cook Co. has ways of dragging good people down to earth over time.
Comment by mark walker Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 10:54 am
The key thing is those townships ONCE were Republican strongholds, just like W. Ky. or S.E. Mo. once were Dem. strongholds, but they have been changed by racial/ethnic/yuppie in migrations.
Comment by Elmira Eddie Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 10:57 am
If it is– “only a rumor”, than it is a “great rumor” which may become a self-fulfilling prophesy. Preckwinkle may actually be the one who said something to Ms. Marin and started it “only because none of those other spineless characters” would have the backbone to state a fact to the voters. If Carol Marin says something (or “anything” as far as that goes) then “I, for one, will believe it”. Carol Marin has big-time credibility with the voters, but as for Cullerton, Quinn, and Madigan’s credibility—erhhh, “Not so much.”
Comment by Wilson Pickett Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 11:11 am
So we face a challenging budget, complicated pension issues and serious medicaid reforms and Carol Marin decides to focus on rumors about who might be running in 2014.
What’s next, a water-skiing squirrel?
Comment by Michelle Flaherty Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 11:20 am
Rumors can be effective without being true.
Comment by Wensicia Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 11:20 am
===What’s next, a water-skiing squirrel?===
Now that would be a great story … compelling and rich.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 11:30 am
YDD
Who would you rather take on in an election: Quinn or Rahm?
I think it’s only natural to consider a Preckwinkle bid for governor, given Quinn’s fecklessness. Besides, if Democrats want to keep the governor’s office, they’d be better off with a stronger nominee. We can’t count on the GOP to nominate Brady again.
Comment by reformer Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 11:31 am
I can’t seem to remember the last Cook County Board President to win statewide. Hmm, wonder why that is?
Also, Brandmeier was quoting off this blog on today’s show, reading the posts to the Cinnamon story. Soy boy was mentioned…
Comment by Not Carol M Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 11:56 am
===Nobody from Preckwinkle, Cullerton, Madigan or Quinn’s camps offers any credence to this rumor. Which could mean it’s true. But also problematic.===
So none of the players involved think this is credible. Yep, I’d say that’s problematic alright. Sheesh. When you write that everyone mentioned around the rumor won’t lend any credibity to it, you probably shouldn’t write that column. Whoever is whispering in her ear is using her and she’s smart enough to know better than to let that happen.
Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 11:57 am
47th Ward, you really think anyone around this would have confirmed if true.
Speaker Madigan: Yeah we want Quinn out….
That would set of a great session and election season with everyone in changed districts…
Comment by OneMan Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 12:00 pm
I don’t believe in conspiracies. I believe in agendas. Someone has an agenda here to stir the pot, and Carol Marin is their spoon. Mike Sneed? Sure. Carol Marin? That’s disappointing.
Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 12:13 pm
This report is a joke, right? Rahm’s running for Gov.
Then he’s running for Pres.
Or has not everyone accepted that yet?
Comment by Shock & Awww(e) Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 12:26 pm
With RESPECT …
This is when I miss Steve Neal!
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 12:33 pm
Oswego Willy
I Concur about Steve Neal!
Comment by 3rd Generation Chicago Native Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 1:04 pm
She would be a formidable candidate, but that immigration stuff will make for some ugly commercials and her days of coasting in the suburbs might be done.
Comment by LincolnLounger Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 1:24 pm
Actually, Oswego Willy, as much as I miss him, too (I have an autographed copy of his Truman book), this is really why we all - those who can afford it - need to get a paid subscription to CapitolFax. Otherwise Rich will someday need to make real money with his Sun-Times gig and will therefore have to answer to others. Consider it an investment in independence.
And also consider that, absent this Neal-esque forum, open conversation from all sides on this issue (and so many others), from an informed and sometimes directly involved audience, probably never happens. Sunlight is, after all, the best disinfectant.
Comment by ericd1112 Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 1:25 pm
A Democratic leader calling someone else irresponsible? That is rich. Try passing a balanced budget and then lecture me about the difference between responsible and irresponsible.
Comment by Its Just Me Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 1:32 pm
I agree with Robert. Ms Madigan isn’t ever going to run for Governor as long as Dad is SotH. She’s far more likely to run for a national office, like the Senate or the House.
Comment by Cheryl44 Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 1:35 pm
Who’s going to run Cook County if she becomes governor? I like what she’s doing there, and want to keep doing what she’s doing there, so I hope the rumor is false.
Comment by PublicServant Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 1:50 pm
I have a hard time buying this rumor. Preckwinkle has done a nice job. She’s smart and hard working, but among her former mates in the City Council and her current colleagues on the County Board she seen as aloof, independent, and dictatorial…not the personal quailities Madigan and Cullerton are looking for in a partner.
Besides, now that they have their map, do Cullerton and Madigan really care if a Republican knocks out Quinn?
Comment by Frank Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 1:51 pm
It makes absolutely zero sense. They held back Lisa Madigan from what should have been a sure-fire Senate seat win in 2010, only so that Mark Kirk can gain the seat for the Republicans and a popular Hyde Park goo-goo liberal can vault from the County Board to the governor’s mansion in 2014? I don’t think so.
It makes more sense that someone would try to float the rumor to harm Preckwinkle. Still, coupling her of all people to Speaker Madigan really stretches credibility. I wonder what made the columnist bite on the story?
Comment by Angry Chicagoan Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 1:52 pm
===They held back Lisa Madigan from ===
Who is this mysterious “they” who you claim has control over Lisa Madigan? lol
C’mon, man.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 2:13 pm
Capt fax
Not only who is da “they”
but what is there to “win”
Comment by CircularFiringSquad Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 2:51 pm
@Reformer -
That kind of depends on how both Quinn and Rahm manage things with organized labor over the next two years.
All other things being equal, it is hard to beat an incumbent Mayor, but its even harder to beat an incumbent governor in a primary.
I have a great deal of respect for Preckwinkle, but I’m not sure how well she fairs outside of the city in an election where she’s not running against Todd Stroger.
And really, you’re forgetting the most important question.
IF Quinn can’t manage to turn Illinois around in the next two to three years, what Democrat in their right mind would want the job?
If, on the other hand, he manages to do it, what’s your case against him?
To that point, let’s not lose sight of the fact that Cook County Board President is equivalent to being Governor of the eighth largest state. Being governor of Illinois ain’t exactly a promotion.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 3:21 pm
Not, that would be Dick Ogilvie
Comment by steve schnorf Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 3:31 pm
Lisa wants nothing to do with any of the aforementioned political positions. Lisa is quietly waiting for her appointment to the Federal bench where she will retire from. Think about her style. Why wouldn’t she stay away from the mess her father made. She disdains the political backstabbing and rough and tumble.
Comment by padraig Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 3:51 pm
It is obvious that Quinn will be vulnerable to a primary challenge in 2014 But it would be stupid for Cullerton and Madigan to be grooming somebody already for doing that, because they would be alienating not only the Governor but also other people who may be eying the seat, and they have hard enough jobs now holding their caucuses together for tough votes. They are not stupid people, so I am pretty sure the rumor is not true.
Comment by jake Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 4:14 pm
===It is obvious that Quinn will be vulnerable to a primary challenge in 2014===
Hynes was a pretty strong challenger. Preckwinkle would be strong (at least from this vantage point in time) because she’s a popular woman and African-American. That could be tough to overcome in a Dem primary. But like somebody said before, PQ ain’t Todd Stroger. He may look weak to some, but he has had the two strongest finishes (primary and general, 2010) of any candidate I’ve ever seen in Illinois.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 4:29 pm
Plus, the economy is almost certainly going to get better, if slowly, and if Quinn can make a dent in the budget problems, he’ll get credit for that. Making the income tax increase permanent could be a hurdle, but it’s probably easier than implementing the increase the first time because people will be used to paying it. If the econnomy really roars, he may not have to extend it. If he’s looking pretty good in 2014, I find it hard to believe the Dems would tear themselves up in a primary fight with one candidate a sitting governor. Who would have ever believed it 20 years ago-Pat Quinn ends up being governor for almost 10 years.
Comment by Cassandra Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 4:50 pm
To Rich’s point, there’s not a lot of upside for Madigan to support a Democratic challenger, especially openly, in a Democratic primary.
Historically, when has he done it? Not since Walker v. Howlett in 1976, I’d bet.
And keep these numbers in mind:
Quinn got 54% of the vote in Chicago in 2010 Democratic primary, including 46% in Madigan’s Ward.
The only wards where Quinn scored less than 40% were Hynes’ home ward and Mayor Daley’s 11th.
Preckwinkle, by contrast, scored 46% citywide…pretty darn good in a four-way race.
But there were 25 wards where she scored less than 40%, including nine where she scored less than 35%.
And Hynes had the benefit of a strong network of downstate volunteers and decent name recognition. Preckwinkle would be starting from scratch introducing herself to 1/3 of Dem primary voters who live downstate, most of whom have voted for Quinn not just once or twice, but several times.
If Hynes couldn’t beat Quinn when he was really running against Rod Blagojevich’s ghost, how easy do you think Quinn will be to beat in 2014?
And as I said before, if Pat Quinn can’t manage to turn Illinois around by 2014, who in their right mind would want the job?
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 4:54 pm
I don’t think Madigan really cares who the governor of Illinois is. He’ll just ignore, bully, or impeach him.
Comment by Bill Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 4:57 pm
==But there were 25 wards where she (Toni) scored less than 40%, including nine where she scored less than 35%.==
I bet most of these were African American wards and she was running against two African American and one Caucasian challenger?
Yes, she’d be far behind Hynes’ numbers downstate, but she could do much better than Hynes in the city of Chicago as well as the collars.
Comment by Robert Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 5:04 pm
@Robert -
You’d lose that bet. The wards where Preckwinkle did worst in the city, by-and-large, were the white working class, union-heavy wards.
Yes, she did well in the suburbs. Better than Hynes by about 15,000 votes. But she also had most of the suburban Democratic organizations behind her. She won’t have that luxury running against a sitting governor.
Look, I’m all for shaking things up, and I know a lot of folks are for shaking things up. Maybe even the majority of Illinoisans are for “shaking things up.”
But the basic rules of the game, unlike football, favor incumbents.
If football were like politics, the team with the better record last season would get five downs instead of four, and the team with the lesser record would need 15 yards to get a first down.
That’s why, despite all of the talk about primary challenges in the 2010 Congressional midterms, only two incumbents lost. That’s why guys like Pat Botterman that run insurgent campaigns and occasionally win are icons.
I only recall two statewide incumbents that have lost Illinois primaries in the last 45 years — Alan Dixon and Dan Walker. Dixon was in a three-way race with another white candidate and Carol Braun, and Dan Walker was opposed by the entire Democratic Machine back when that meant something.
Maybe there’s more? Schnorf?? Miller???
Yes, maybe, MAYBE she could beat Quinn. But she’s got a great job now, its not a great move up (unlike Mayor), and she can only win if Illinois state government is tanking.
It’d be like quitting your job as a VP of Goldman Sachs to apply for a job as senior VP at Enron.
Seriously…who does that??
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 8:14 pm
=== Who would you rather take on in an election: Quinn or Rahm? ===
@Reformer:
Frankly, considering the direction our country and our economy are headed in, I’d rather not run against either one of them.
If I were a betting man, I’d bet the GOP gets trounced in Illinois for the next few cycles, at least until 2016.
But Rahm has to be much more worried about being outflanked by the unions than Quinn.
Unions make up about 1/3 of the vote in a Chicago municipal election, but less than 20% of the Democratic primary vote statewide.
My bet is that Preckwinkle is and always was intent on staying put. And those floating rumors have ulterior motives for floating them.
Who knows…maybe they just want to drive a wedge between Quinn and Preckwinkle, who should be allies.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Monday, Feb 6, 12 @ 8:45 pm
Regardless of what you may think about President Cullerton, he is a man of high integrity. He tells the truth, whether some of his opposition likes it, or not.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Feb 7, 12 @ 2:49 am
Yellow Dog,
You are right on with the Pat Botterman reference. I only knew him a little and shortly before he died but he was clearly a great guy and several folks I know and respect thought the world of him and were clearly all broken up about it. There ought to be a scholarship someplace (SIU maybe?) named after him to support young people who want to jump in and fight for what they believe in a principled - and successful - way.
Comment by ericd1112 Tuesday, Feb 7, 12 @ 10:21 am