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New SurveyUSA poll shows Gov. Blagojevich’s disapprovals are falling while his approvals are rising. Best numbers since the monthly tracker began in May of last year. He’s still -2, however.
UPDATE: A commenter just pointed something out that could mean the poll is an outlier.
I just looked through the various tracking graphs… and noticed something a little odd. The Governor is enjoying a fairly significant surge of support among Republicans (12 point jump from last month, as opposed to 0 points among Democrats and -1 point among independents) and conservatives (8 point jump, as opposed to 3 points among moderates and liberals).
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Apr 13, 06 @ 10:39 am
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He may not know what he’s doing. He may be untrustworthy. He may be a complete liar, but the one thing we do know for sure is that Rod Blagojevich and his people know how to campaign. Someone told me I have to respect him for that. Not sure I agree, but there is a point there somewhere.
Surely by August 15th he’ll have a 10 point lead on JBT and will never look back.
Comment by Goodbye Napoleon Thursday, Apr 13, 06 @ 10:59 am
I just looked through the various tracking graphs (at http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=a276fd8a-2746-4bbf-ab22-db27cf922774), and noticed something a little odd. The Governor is enjoying a fairly significant surge of support among Republicans (12 point jump from last month, as opposed to 0 points among Democrats and -1 point among independents) and conservatives (8 point jump, as opposed to 3 points among moderates and liberals).
Thoughts?
Comment by Defensor Pacis Thursday, Apr 13, 06 @ 11:22 am
The Governors’ numbers will continue to rise because his policies reflect the values of the people in Illinois. One thing Republicans do not comprehend is the fact that people do not have to like a politician personally to vote for him or her. They want people who are smart, ie. knowledgable, readers, etc. One example of this would be: Republicans attempted to make the case for President Bush in the “04″ election-he is the kind of person you would like to drink a beer with. What? The chances of a “regular-Joe drinking a beer with the President of the United States is like winning the “Mega-Millions” lottery. It just isn’t going to happen to 99.999% of the population. That is the most bizzare thinking I have ever heard of. When people vote for a person, they typically think, does this person reflect my thinking/feeling/values. In addition, people these days understand that people in general are ruthless, usually not honest, and do whatever is needed to survive. That is just a basic. To think otherwise is unwise. As was pointed out in the 2004 Presidential election in Illinois. Bush:NO; Kerry:YES. People want someone who is going to get the best deal for them. Governor Blagojevich has a basic plan for Illinois. 1. Universal Pre-School. 2. All Kids Health Care. 3. Capital works project (infrastructure, infrastructure, infrastructure), etc., etc., etc. Ideas and plans that affect people. I hope the Governor continues to run commercials pointing out the fact that he is fighting for working people in Illinois, and show that what he is fighting for is worth fighting for. In addition, point out the fact that Republicans are doing the same thing to him as they did to President Clinton (smear, smear some more, complain, and obstruct progress for working people). When was the last time anyone heard a Republican in Illinois say anything good about Illinois? I think I remember, but let me make sure. No, nothing, not off the top of my head, other than the fact that things were supposedly peachy-cheese when George Ryan was Governor. And, all I ever hear from Republicans in Illinois say is that George W. Bush is a great President. That is the difference in Illinois, Republicans view Bush as smart and Bill Clinton, Al Gore, John Kerry, and anyone who thinks like them as dumb. The Republicans do not reflect the values of the majority of people in Illinois, and they will figure it out on election day in November, once and for all. Vote for progress, vote Democrat! PS: I hope we can get the “straight ticket” vote back on the ballot’s.
Comment by TrueBlueandThankful Thursday, Apr 13, 06 @ 11:30 am
It’s a long time and many polls till election so I wouldn’t put any big money up just yet.Trueblue the only plan Blago has got for us is another 20 to 25 billion in debt that’s why Madigan and Jones shut him down they are not going to be left holding the bag when this state goes belly up because of debt.
Comment by DOWNSTATE Thursday, Apr 13, 06 @ 11:48 am
I broke a long tradition of voting for Democrats and casted a vote for George Ryan because I thought Glen Poshard did not reflect the values of the majority of people in Illinois.
Comment by Bill Baar Thursday, Apr 13, 06 @ 11:49 am
http://eastvold.blogspot.com/2006/04/blagojevichs-polling-numbers-on-way-up.html
Comment by Defensor Pacis Thursday, Apr 13, 06 @ 12:06 pm
His television ads have clearly been directed towards moving females. It appears that is working as he has finally gone positive with women 49-46% Can Judy get them back just because she is one of them? In a state that more than trends democratic–it is democratic–she better or she’s toast. My hat is off to Rod’s media guys, its working…and with $20 million more he should get just about 50% plus one!!
Comment by Political Hack Thursday, Apr 13, 06 @ 12:23 pm
Most of the sub groupings have outliers over the course of the poll, so I wouldn’t read too much into it.(In January they had Rod at 72% among Hispanics.) I’d be much more concerned with the +3 among women. That trend line don’t bode well for JBT.
Comment by HappyToaster Thursday, Apr 13, 06 @ 12:34 pm
New Survey USA Numbers
Rod at 47 Approve, 49 Disapprove That’s the highest Approval and lowest disapproval in the last year. Let’s remember that under 50 for an incumbent is a danger sign, but the track is rather consistent which is interesting. Still not…
Trackback by ArchPundit Thursday, Apr 13, 06 @ 12:55 pm
Brother Bill Baar, I agree with what you wrote about Glenn Poshard. In addtition, I love reading your blogs. Keep up the good work. As for Poshard, he did not have the same values as most Illinoisians; I knew he was going to lose when “right-wing” gun nutballs were telling me that they were going to vote for him. Nevertheless, had the election day been another week or two later, he probably would have pulled the election out of the hands of the Republicans. Two key issues killed his victory: the assault weapons ban,and his support for carrying a concealed weapon,ie. (the commercial with gang bangers running down the street with guns in their hands); that was a good comercial. I almost didn’t vote for him because of it, but I knew how the smear machine worked. The other issue that killed him was his stance on abortion, which to be honest, it is a value that most Democrats agree with. I do not know any Democrat who is pro-abortion. None, zero. However, Democrats do not believe we can tell a “woman” what she can do with her body. PS: Nonetheless, George Ryan was the best Democrat that the Republican party helped elect. Too bad for all the scandal stuff.
Comment by TrueBlueandThankful Thursday, Apr 13, 06 @ 1:53 pm
SJ-R says legislature not in overtime…
http://www.sj-r.com/sections/opinion/stories/83487.asp
Comment by Newshound Thursday, Apr 13, 06 @ 3:24 pm
I’m sorry, but I can’t seem to kick this hypocrite thing that I’ve been on lately.
If a poll comes out showing that Judy is in the lead, it’s as good as gold. “The numbers don’t lieâ€, as someone once posted. But, when a poll comes out showing that ole’ Rodney isn’t as damaged or hated as some would like, it’s wrong, or, “I wouldn’t read much into itâ€.
Again, as always, amazing!
Comment by B Hicks Thursday, Apr 13, 06 @ 3:59 pm
I have noticed that the ads GRod was running on TV during the 10:00pm news casts have stopped. The ads with the citizens saying how wonderful his pre-school, jobs program, and health care iniatives and the gov are.
Have the ads been pulled because these programs just may not exist come election time due to lack of funding and no new debt, excuse me revenue, to pay for them?
My wife and I noticed the timing was very coincidental with the Senate taking a 2 week hike and the luke warm support for $4+ Billion in new bond debt in the legislature.
Comment by Papa Legba Thursday, Apr 13, 06 @ 4:02 pm
Papa - Blago’s ads were run to coincide with primary. Now that the primary is over, it
s that unusual to stop running them.
They were damned good ads. The governor knows how to spin to appear to share their values. It’s in the delivery that he fails.
True Blue — how come Rod’s been in office 4 years and all he can brag about are programs he’s going to implement after he’s been reelected? Universal pre-school, All-Kids, infrastructure etc??? Where are the great accomplishments that he’s ACCOMPLISHED?
I’m a Democrat, and I’m fed up with his great campaigning and shoddy administration.
Comment by Chicagograssroots Thursday, Apr 13, 06 @ 5:02 pm
B Hicks…..You’ve got a good point. Look at the Cook Political Report. It has been saying that Blago is likely to be re-elected for months. It’s latest report as the of the end of March says the same thing. No one ever mentions it though.
Comment by tough guy Thursday, Apr 13, 06 @ 5:14 pm
Blago is going to get some bump in the polls while he campaigns early. There are some uninformed people who sit around and watch TV. When Blago’s numbers are down, they hate him. When Blago’s numbers are up, they like him. It won’t matter come November because they don’t vote….
Comment by Lovie's Leather Thursday, Apr 13, 06 @ 9:04 pm
Papa, if you live in Springfield, it’s very likely you’ve seen the ads disappear because the legislature is no longer in session. It’s possible the ads were really meant to influence the opinion of out-of-towners, not Springfieldians.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Friday, Apr 14, 06 @ 9:11 am
Blago starts looking great to people when compared next to Judy of Accordian.
Comment by Anonymous Friday, Apr 14, 06 @ 9:23 am
The most important trend for the governor is that his job approval rating among democrats is up 12 points from a year ago, and the percent of Illinoisans who call themselves Democrats is now 42%. If Bush continues to plummet (NYT front page today is half a dozen former generals calling for Rumsfeld’s nomination), that number could even grow a little more. I’m not sure even an indictment would put Topinka over the top at this point.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Friday, Apr 14, 06 @ 10:04 am
Writing the obituary on Topinka’s candidacy a little early, are we?
Comment by I have not yet begun to fight Friday, Apr 14, 06 @ 10:27 am
You must remember it is YDDs job to be Blago’s blog guy. How much does he pay you, YDD?
Comment by Lovie's Leather Friday, Apr 14, 06 @ 11:13 am
“I do not know any Democrat who is pro-abortion. None, zero. However, Democrats do not believe we can tell a ‘woman’ what she can do with her body.”
That is the definition of “pro-abortion.”
Comment by T.J. Saturday, Apr 15, 06 @ 5:20 am
True Blue: I’m a working person from Illinois and the governor hasn’t done a thing for me. He’s running my home state into bankruptcy and is using the taxpayers money to finance his campaign by plastering his name over everything that doesn’t move. While he is making campaign commercials and receiving accolades from people he hands contracts to, we’re busy trying to explain to healthcare providers why they can’t get their much needed forms on time. We also have to field calls from state agencies as to why they can’t get their envelopes printed. Each week it’s, “Stop the presses, we have a new program that needs printing done asap.” But then again, we’re just lazy, state employees, isn’t that right, Rod?
Comment by anonymous Sunday, Apr 16, 06 @ 9:15 pm
To TrueBlueandThankful - you’re obviously one of the Gov’s staff - hope you’re not doing this on state time. There should have never been an option on any ballot to vote straight ticket - that is voting for the party not for the candidates.
Anyone notice the recent changes to the State of Illinois’ home page (www.illinois.gov)? The links to all of the agencies have been removed and now the main focus of the center section of the page is all of Rod’s PR pieces. Every one of them starts with Gov. Rod Blag…. did something wonderful today… ad nauseum. Governor, did you take the mandatory ethics training that was required of your state workers?
Comment by bbishere2 Monday, Apr 17, 06 @ 3:06 pm
TrueBlue,
The state is behind some $39 billion in funding for the state employee’s retirement. Not only is it short, but now with the employees funding their pensions, not only is that more money for the gov to spend, now there is additional funds coming from the employees themselves. Is this part of the Gov’s plans, too? We don’t need to raise taxes to pay for all of the pork barrel projects, just rob the available pension funds and the incoming ones as well?
Comment by bbishere2 Monday, Apr 17, 06 @ 3:09 pm