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Rasmussen: Romney up by 9

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Illinois

* Rasmussen has published its first presidential poll of Illinois…

41% Romney
32% Santorum
14% Gingrich
7% Paul
2% Some other candidate
4% Not sure

* More from the pollster…

Given that 32% of voters could still change their mind before Tuesday, this represents a potential opportunity for Santorum. Most Gingrich supporters (55%) say they could still change their mind, and they overwhelmingly prefer Santorum over Romney in a two-man race.

But…

Fifty percent (50%) of Illinois primary voters see Romney as the strongest general election candidate, while 24% say the same of Santorum. Perceived electability remains Romney’s strong suit.

Seventy-eight percent (78%) believe Romney is at least somewhat likely to defeat President Obama and 54% say the same of Santorum. Most (53%) think Gingrich is unlikely to win in November and 79% believe it is unlikely Paul could defeat the president.

* And in case you’re wondering, here’s how likely Republican primary voters rate Gov. Pat Quinn’s job performance…

2% Strongly approve
10% Somewhat approve
18% Somewhat disapprove
66% Strongly disapprove
3% Not sure

* Meanwhile, I started getting e-mails like this on February 13th…

Pat Brady, Chairman of the Illinois Republican Party, endorsed Tom Smithburg for 42nd Ward Republican Committeeman today.

“I fully agree with Tom’s message of bringing a new day to the city of Chicago,” said Brady of his endorsement. “He will bring a fresh perspective and new ideas, which we desperately need in a city where we could only manage 17% of the vote in 2010. If that number was 20%, Bill Brady would be Governor and in that position he would’ve vetoed the Democrats’ job-killing tax hike, the over-spending budgets, and the gerrymandered redistricting map.”

This is from Feb. 16th…

State Senator Bill Brady today announced his endorsement of Tom Smithburg for 42nd Ward Republican Committeeman.

“Tom Smithburg is right, we must do better in the city of Chicago,” said Brady. “We need a newly energized Republican Party in Chicago. We need to unify around our common ideals and work together to grow the Party. If we can accomplish that, Republicans can once again win statewide elections in Illinois. That is why I’m excited about the fresh ideas Tom brings to the table and am proud to endorse him for 42nd Ward Republican Committeeman.”

March 1st…

Former Illinois Governor Jim Edgar today announced that he has endorsed Tom Smithburg for 42nd Ward Republican Committeeman.

“I have known Tom and his family for many years, and they have always been stalwart Republicans and passionate civic leaders,” said Edgar, who was Governor of Illinois from 1991-1999. “If there is anyone I would trust to bring leadership, unity, and energy to the Republican Party in Chicago, it’s Tom Smithburg. I am pleased to endorse him, and will provide my assistance in his election as well as his efforts to once again make Republicans competitive in the City of Chicago.”

* Since then, Jim Thompson, House GOP Leader Tom Cross, Comptroller Judy Baar Topinka, Congressman Aaron Schock, Dan Proft and others have announced their endorsements for a ward committeeman’s race.

The ward is growing in importance to Republicans…

And lest anyone think this is a meaningless little race, consider that the 42nd Ward has, all by itself, more Republicans than many entire counties downstate. In the 2008 November election for example, McCain-Palin received 10,125 votes in the ward. Yes, like all of Chicago’s 50 wards, the 42nd is predominantly Democratic. But the sheer concentration of people still means a lot of Republicans. If Chicago had a functioning Republican Party, the numbers would obviously be better.

A lot of very prominent Republicans live and work in the 42nd and many of those Repubs just don’t like incumbent committeeman Eloise Gerson. She’s made plenty of enemies over the years, while not building much of an organization.

* Smithburg didn’t just come out of the blue. His father is William Smithburg, a very wealthy Chicagoan who has given $300K to candidates over the years. The elder Smithburg is a former CEO of Quaker Oats.

Despite rumors to the contrary, his campaign insists that they’re getting all these endorsements without the father’s direct involvement. David Walsh, for instance, raised money for Sen. Bill Brady’s gubernatorial race and is running the Smithburg race, so that’s how that endorsement was secured.

Whatever the case, I do not believe I have ever seen so many major political figures endorse in a ward committeeman’s race before.

posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Mar 16, 12 @ 3:07 pm

Comments

Good for Willard. This is like a head-on collision at the Crossroads of the Conservative Community.

What was your favorite part of the Tea Party era in Illinois?

Comment by 47th Ward Friday, Mar 16, 12 @ 3:24 pm
–“He will bring a fresh perspective and new ideas, which we desperately need in a city where we could only manage 17% of the vote in 2010. If that number was 20%, Bill Brady would be Governor…–

–And lest anyone think this is a meaningless little race, consider that the 42nd Ward has, all by itself, more Republicans than many entire counties downstate. In the 2008 November election for example, McCain-Palin received 10,125 votes in the ward.–

I once was blind, but now I see.

Some of the “fresh ideas and new perspective” might include educating GOP officials that chronic Chicago and Cook County bashing might not be the best way to get the fish in the boat. If that’s the goal.

Comment by wordslinger Friday, Mar 16, 12 @ 3:27 pm
24 years old and a graduate of phillips exeter.

nice

Comment by Shore Friday, Mar 16, 12 @ 3:46 pm
Bill Kelly is also in that 42nd Ward race. Apparently, he believes the Chicago GOP is not quite goofy enough.
Kelly is also threatening to sue Smithburg for defamation, which is funny considering that the GOP allegedly hates frivolous lawsuits.

Comment by Skeeter Friday, Mar 16, 12 @ 3:49 pm
- If that number was 20%, Bill Brady would be Governor and in that position he would’ve vetoed the Democrats’ job-killing tax hike, the over-spending budgets, and the gerrymandered redistricting map. -

The sore losers just don’t stop whining. Also, where’s the evidence of the job killing? And will Mr. Chairman please tell his downstate GOP buddies to stop whining about facility closures? After all, according to him we’re still overspending, no room for less cuts.

Comment by Small Town Liberal Friday, Mar 16, 12 @ 3:54 pm
Re endorsements for Smithburg, sounds like same old IL GOP pay-to-play. This time on behalf of a 23 yr old kid.

Comment by just sayin' Friday, Mar 16, 12 @ 4:04 pm
here’s the resume for mr. smithburg. Goldman Sachs internship, frat president, student body vice-president, scuba diver and sailor.

Comment by Shore Friday, Mar 16, 12 @ 4:05 pm
–24 years old and a graduate of phillips exeter.

nice –

That’s nothing, when I was 18 I advanced from a career in retail petroleum products dispensation at Phillips 76 to Standard Oil, where I matriculated from the lube bay to the digital tire balancing machine.

Way nice.

Comment by wordslinger Friday, Mar 16, 12 @ 4:13 pm
My wife and I are both around 60 years years old….and we vote in every election. But we can never, ever remember taking a Republican ballot in a primary election. Yesterday, we got a robo-call from the Romney campaign. Dude must have money to burn.

Comment by Deep South Monday, Mar 19, 12 @ 9:17 am
We live in a particularly Republican area of Springfield (if that’s not a redundancy) and have been getting virtually 2 Romney robo-calls for the past week. It would be funny if it wasn’t so annoying.

Comment by D.P. Gumby Monday, Mar 19, 12 @ 10:33 am