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More poll numbers from Crain’s

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Illinois
Polls

* Crain’s has some new poll numbers out about Gov. Pat Quinn’s job approval and disapproval ratings. But deciphering the results is a bit difficult…

Only 23 percent say they approve (including 5 percent who strongly approve), versus 46 percent who are dissatisfied with the governor. But 24 percent have mixed feelings and 7 percent say they’re not sure.

That “mixed feelings” category basically lets respondents cop out of taking a stand. Plus, they already have categories like “lean toward disapprove” and “lean toward approve” that are, by definition, mixed feelings.

* Some of you pointed out yesterday that these are Internet polls. I asked Greg Hinz about the topic…

The sample is randomly selected from Ipsos’ data base, weighted to Illinois’ current population of adults by gender, age, education, ethnicity and region.

* Back to the poll. While 28 percent say the corruption problem is “getting a little better” and 38 percent said it was staying the same, 17 percent said it was “getting much worse”…

* Check out the wrong track numbers…

* Also, according to the poll, 53 percent either strongly or somewhat disapprove of the way Gov. Quinn is handling gas prices. Not sure what that means.

Go check out all the poll questions and get back to us with your thoughts.

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Jun 27, 12 @ 12:43 pm

Comments

I have some thoughts that specifically are grounded in how a few in the GOP have ruined it for the many, but if I shared them, I’m afraid I’d get a letter asking for the return of my laminated ILGOP card. (Assuming Mr. Brady, et al. haven’t already figured out another way to “deactivate” it. lol)

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jun 27, 12 @ 12:48 pm
It’s a long way to 2014. As for the corruption bit people elected quinn in the heat of the blago ordeal, until the republicans put forth a competent alternative, democrats can whether the berrios/smith whatever comes next.

Comment by Shore Wednesday, Jun 27, 12 @ 12:56 pm
I’d like to see crosstabs compared to a generic ballot question on the approve/disapprove, corruption and right track/wrong track questions. Are people just expressing frustration or are they changing their voting behavior?

Comment by The Captain Wednesday, Jun 27, 12 @ 1:01 pm
Gas prices? Why didn’t they ask whether people approved/disapproved of his handling of the European Financial Crisis or the Arab Spring?

And I for one disapprove of how Quinn is handling the weather this year. Way too warm and dry. We need leadership but all Quinn is doing to is solving our fiscal and corruption problems.

Given the drought, I think it’s safe to say we’ve never had a more anti-farmer Governor than Pat Quinn.

Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Jun 27, 12 @ 1:03 pm
===”…but if I shared them, I’m afraid I’d get a letter asking for the return of my laminated ILGOP card. (Assuming Mr. Brady, et al. haven’t already figured out another way to “deactivate” it. lol)” ===

I may not be too fasr behind you, so when that happens, lemme know what to expect.

To the Post,

Let’s see how the new General Assembly works, or doesn’t work with Quinn, then give me some numbers, internet or traditional.

This new General Assembly that will sit in 2013, with these new districts will dictate Quinn’s next 2 years. If Cullerton and Madigan pummel the House and Senate GOP, (and I dunno if there is a way to stop it, as of this very moment, given where both caucuses sit and are going…) It could be a two-headed monster of Madigan and Cullerton making policy and Quinn fighting them off. If Quinn works with them in this new General Assembly, gets something done, and looks Governor-like, Quinn will be far better off than any internet or traditional poll snapshot look like today.

Yeah, this map, and this election, IS that important, and I guess this lil’ poll reinforces that thought for me.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jun 27, 12 @ 1:07 pm
My only significant complaints about the methodology are:

1) its weighted based on a number of demographic factors, but partisanship isn’t one of them;

2) Its of RESIDENTS, not registered voters.

That said, Quinn’s press office is struggling in three ways:

1) Trumpeting policies he’s enacted that create jobs;

2) Trumpeting OVERALL job creation numbers;

3) Identifying and utilizing surrogates from the business community to do 1 & 2.

Instead, he’s focused on one-off stories about individual job creation projects, which are great if you happen to work for that company or they are your client, but leave everybody else asking “Where’s mine?” Sears and CME are prime examples.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Wednesday, Jun 27, 12 @ 1:19 pm
“Between June 8 and 13, 545 Illinois residents were polled on the following topics. The credibility interval is +/-4.9%.”

This poll is inaccurate and untrustworthy in it’s validity , IMO, and not worth intelligent speculation on it’s results.

Comment by Mouthy Wednesday, Jun 27, 12 @ 1:26 pm
Rich, do you have a copy of the toplines or cross-tabs? Link?

Comment by PDF Fan Wednesday, Jun 27, 12 @ 1:32 pm
–* Also, according to the poll, 53 percent either strongly or somewhat disapprove of the way Gov. Quinn is handling gas prices. Not sure what that means. –

In addition, 70% disapprove of Quinn’s handling of the fat dude across the street who spends all summer in the front yard with his shirt off.

Gas prices? Why did Crain’s even ask that question? As a business publication, they must have some sort of understanding of a governor’s role in gas prices — none.

I have no doubt lots of folks are honked off about just about everything, but let’s get real.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Jun 27, 12 @ 1:32 pm
In addition, 100% of Republicans are honked that following the Blago scandals and in the midst of a national GOP landslide, the Brady Bunch still managed to lose to a guy that apparently no one likes.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Jun 27, 12 @ 1:44 pm
@Mouthy -

I wouldn’t completely throw the poll out, we just need to be clear about what it is and what it ain’t.

It isn’t a poll of likely voters in an upcoming election, and as such tells us nothing about how candidates are likely to fair in 2012 and certainly not 2014.

At the same time, the opinion of RESIDENTS is somewhat useful for those who care what non-voters think.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Wednesday, Jun 27, 12 @ 1:46 pm
Word — Actually, there is something that the Governor can do about gas prices. http://www.illinois.gov/pressreleases/ShowPressRelease.cfm?SubjectID=3&RecNum=871

I don’t think he should — in the long run, I think drivers save money when the gas tax is used for road maintenance. But Ryan’s action is within the memories of lots of Illinoisans.

Comment by soccermom Wednesday, Jun 27, 12 @ 1:46 pm
===In addition, 100% of Republicans are honked that following the Blago scandals and in the midst of a national GOP landslide, the Brady Bunch still managed to lose to a guy that apparently no one likes.===

While 50% of the party blames the Far Right, and coincidently, 50% of the party blames the Moderates …

100% of the ILGOP blames someone other than “Republicans like me.”

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jun 27, 12 @ 1:55 pm
IPSOS is competent. It might have been clever of them to ask about gas prices, as a measure of how feelings about this economy in general are skewing the other ratings. I wonder if they did the analytics that way.

How Crain’s and others report the findings is another matter altogether.

Comment by mark walker Wednesday, Jun 27, 12 @ 1:56 pm
Actually, the state makes more money off retail gas taxes than the oil companies make profits.

In Illinois, for example, there’s a flat 19 cent/gal tax (21.5 for diesel) and an additional 30-40 cents per gallon in sales and “environmental recovery” taxes. Include the Federal motor fuel and state excise taxes and you find that the real “profiteers” in the oil industry are the governments.

What can Quinn and the GA do to affect gas prices? They could change the tax structure to avoid state “windfall profiteering” by capping sales taxes to no more than 15 cents per gallon, and stop raiding the motor fuel revenues for other purposes so that we can have safe roads and reduce state fuel taxes to national averages.

THAT’s what Quinn can do about fuel prices.

On the other hand, about that fat guy across the street……

Comment by Palos Park Bob Wednesday, Jun 27, 12 @ 2:24 pm
With numbers this bad, arguing about the statistical precision is just the first stage of denial. (Quickly followed by assuming sample bias.)

The current picture is not good, but what this might mean about 2014 is very unclear.

Comment by mark walker Wednesday, Jun 27, 12 @ 2:39 pm
===On the other hand, about that fat guy across the street……===

I know nuttin about da fat guy across the street, and ‘ifs’ I was yoouse, you’d know nuttin bout da fat guy across the street. Don’t worry about it.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jun 27, 12 @ 3:00 pm
I can see why Republicans will be lining up to run against Quinn n 2014. Of course Democrats may realize he’s too weak to be re-elected and nominate a stronger candidate.

Comment by reformer Wednesday, Jun 27, 12 @ 3:11 pm
Reformer, the Republicans were lining up to face Quinn in 2010. How did that work out for them?

Comment by soccermom Wednesday, Jun 27, 12 @ 3:29 pm
A recent poll showed 38% independent, 32% Democrat, and 24% Republicans as far as how people defined their political associations. The fewest Ds and Rs since they started polling, perhaps since the Civil War. I’d be fascinated to know what those numbers are in Illinois right about now. People are fed up with failure.

Comment by Jeff Trigg Wednesday, Jun 27, 12 @ 3:50 pm
We are most certianly going on the wrong track,all this bobbing and weaving sends the wrong
message. The leadership just does not want to lead,we need action not words.It’s worse than being a Cub fan,we are always waitng for the next session.Our State need help now.

Comment by mokenavince Wednesday, Jun 27, 12 @ 4:10 pm
How about a Capital Fax poll minus the mixed feelings option?

Comment by Concerned Voter Wednesday, Jun 27, 12 @ 4:13 pm
I saw a poll today that said 1 in 10 Americans believe they have seen a UFO.

I was amazed that 90% of the population has been able to identify every single object they’ve ever seen in the sky — it should have been closer to 100%.

I remember working on my thesis, too… My advisor and I went to talk to the statistician who asked what our goal was. Apparently we could make the same data prove or disprove our initial hypothesis depending on what statistical model we used.

My point? I don’t trust polls, and I rarely view them as anything more than entertainment, like reality TV.

Comment by Stuff happens Wednesday, Jun 27, 12 @ 4:20 pm
Last time I checked, there’s seldom been a shortage of Republicans lining up–no matter what. Unless of course, there’s some clever little beast running who manages to tee off and otherwise “neutralize” in the press his best buddy, former best buddy, ex-wife, ex-girlfriend, current girlfriend, the conservatives, the moderates, the majority of his current volunteers, the majority of those who would ever consider volunteering to help, just about every Citizen of the US, those with jobs, those without jobs, his dog….

THAT’s when WE usually win! (Yeah, baby!)

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jun 27, 12 @ 4:59 pm
Getting much worse - after Blago? What would that even look like? Is it possible?

Comment by Excessively Rabid Wednesday, Jun 27, 12 @ 6:16 pm
I find it sad that the populace would base their vote upon something like gas prices. Then again, what percentage of people vote?

Comment by Sueann Wednesday, Jun 27, 12 @ 11:12 pm
==Getting much worse - after Blago? What would that even look like? Is it possible?==

This is what it looks like.

Comment by Bill Thursday, Jun 28, 12 @ 8:14 am