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Do you think Gov. Blagojevich’s TV ads are working yet? I’m told his own polling now shows him ahead of Judy Baar Topinka. James Meeks’ poll also showed Blagojevich leading.
Also, should Topinka respond now if she has the money or wait until the election is closer?
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 5:15 am
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The Governor’s ads are working, and they are working just right. I hope the Topinka campaign listens to all of her handlers and the right-wingers on this blog (don’t do anything and let the Gov. spend his money). She’ll figure it out! This is great.
Comment by TrueBlueandThankful Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 6:05 am
Are they polling downstate or just Chicago?
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 6:09 am
Bye Bye Judy. You can’t let negative advertising on television go unanswered weeks on end. Rod is running a textbook campaign and running it well. IF she goes up, she is going to have to go up and play defense instead of using the money to build her positives or take Rod on. She’s melting and melting fast. No doubt about it!
Comment by Poltical Hack Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 6:14 am
Think she should wait. Keep her cash intact and on hand, build, build her organization & watch Bladgo self-destruct. He’s spending millions on ads ! Back to back in some markets during the news breaks & prime time some shows…that’s costing a bundle. Hear or read 6–7 million since the first of the year. Going negative early on say’s Bladgo senses trouble but he’ll only get to beat the “Geo. Ryan drum” association thing for a while till that’s old too, public is tired of hearing it. With his own pending problems and investigations … he ought to be careful what he’s professing. Bet you can find a picture of Bladgo with George also if they look hard enough . IF JBT sits and waits, wait till this session is over & this so called “budget” approved then go after that, inconsistencies in the fiscal, his message & his dismal record !! Don’t think that the $$ won’t come for JBT … they will ! It’s only May and you’ll be surprised come July when the semi-annual reports to ISBE are filed. RNC could kick in 5-6 million easily with minimal troubles as they are a 50 state operation. Where I think she’ll pull ahead is when the message is carefully crafted & Bladgo record comes out in a way most folks can understand. TV, radio & literature + the internet will be how she delivers …all in good time !!
Comment by anon Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 6:21 am
His own polls shows he’s leading and the people running these are the same people telling him to keep up the good work.I would rather see an independent poll.
Comment by DOWNSTATE Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 6:35 am
Rod made at least 4 million at the Field Museum fundraiser a few weeks ago. I hope her strategy isn’t to sit around and wait for him to run out of money.
She’s a dandy!
Just sit back and relax, the best has yet to come.
P.S. the numbers don’t lie, remember?
Comment by B Hicks Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 6:40 am
She should wait until her commitments from Karl Rove are in the bank. I strongly suspect the national GOP is stringing her along. If she starts spending her own money now, they will continue to string her along. And once she goes up, she needs to stay up. She doesn’t have the money for that now. Karl Rove, where are you?!
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 6:53 am
Anon 6:21 mentioned big Rod’s pending investigations. I wonder: just how long will they be “pending,” and will that status ever change?
My gut feeling is that JBT will ultimately put up a more respectable fight and, if she does not win in November, voters will soon thereafter experience something akin to new-car depression — where the excitement of buying the new car quickly evolves into “OMG, what have I done?”
Comment by Jack Blades Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 6:55 am
At my health club there are walls of multiple televisions. During the 6:00 news programs, those ads were lighting up the screens like fireworks.
The groans were audible. One person said “Enough already. Tomorrow we’ll find out it’s all lies anyway.”
It is possible to ride a horse right into the ground. With B’s credibility level near zero, having people constantly hearing nothing but more lies from him cannot possibly be a good thing.
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 7:01 am
The ads are working — to run up the negatives on Rod’s own character and on Illinois state government. What else does he need to do to keep me at home on election day or to get so repulsed by this guy that I vote for Topinka just so I don’t have to see him anymore?
Comment by vole Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 7:07 am
The budget is one of the reasons that Rod will win. Great strides have been made in the health care, education, universal pre-school, public safety. These are democratic programs initiated by a democratic governor, passed (I hope) by a democratic legislature in a democratic state…and all without raising income or sales taxes.
This budget sends a message to the voters that the state is finally, after almost 30 years, starting to work for them rather than them working for the state.
The histrionics of the repub Reps over the last couple of days would make a great campaign ad on why this state needs to re-elect the governor
We are still waiting for Judy and the repubs to
Bring it on!
Oh and thanks for all the expert advice on how to run a camapign. Just sit back and watch the professionals at work.
Comment by The original Bill Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 7:13 am
Funny I don’t hear or see where the Conservatives are working for JBT. Hmmm The Liberals and Rino’s must have things well in hand.
Comment by The Conservative Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 7:24 am
Bill - please explain to us how our illustrious leadership (and I’m speaking tongue-in-cheek) is going to pay for this Santa’s bag of gifts to everyone, everywhere. What’s next, an All Pimps program? THE STATE OF ILLINOIS IS BROKE! What part of that don’t you understand? You cannot be all things to all people, no matter how much money you spend on ads that are basically identical. And just so you know, I’m an independent. I think before I vote.
Judy should sit tight, let him spew his crap and then pick his charges apart, one by one, and point out all the BS he’s foisted on the taxpayers of this state. He is the original in the pot and kettle rhubarb.
Comment by Disgusted Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 7:25 am
Topinka’s alienated the White House and most of the GOP base here. She’ll keep dropping. No one with more than a pea brain wants anything to do with her.
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 7:34 am
I think it’s reasonable for someone who doesn’t have a lot of money not to blow most of it early in the cmapaign. And JBT definitely lacks money.
One hopes this is not just an end of career vanity campaign, although it is starting to look like it, even if you disregard various polls looking good for Blago.
I signed up to work on the Jack Ryan campaign although I never actually got down there before he withdrew. But I got e-mails nearly every day about what the campaign was doing, where they needed help, asking for money, etc etc. They were relentless.
I have signed up for both JBT’s and Radogno’s campaigns and received nothing back for Radogno but a confirmation e-mail and one e-mail from
the JBT campaign. Neither has asked for money.
There is almost nothing on Radogno’s website, not that much on JBT’s.
Both of these ladies’ campaigns seem to suffer from serious incompetence. I can see why the Republican national party, which has a lot on its plate right now, would not want to spend
a lot of money on Judy and Christine yet.
Will I vote for them both. Yes. But if I were an uninterested or uncommitted voter, I would likely barely know who they are and what they stand for, other than that they are not-Blago and not-Alex. And that’s not enough to win an election.
Comment by Cassandra Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 7:42 am
Disgusted’
THE STATE IS NOT BROKE!
Since you asked:
The governor’s initiatives will be paid for by the natural revenue growth that has taken place in Illinois due to the governor’s leadership. In addition to that he has and will continue to streamline gov’t and use those savings to pays for his initiatives.
In the short term he will continue to sweep special interest funds so that that revenue can be used to benefit ALL of the citizens of Illinois.
He will also unload some stagnant assets for one time revenue boosts.
…and if he runs short there is always the pension funds.
See, we now have a balanced budget just like the constitution mandates.
Comment by The original Bill Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 7:44 am
Here is an idea for a JBT campaign ad “How many more people have to die in Illinois state parks before sufficient numbers people are hired to properly staff the parks?” (Another kid died at Starved Rock in the past few weeks.)
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 7:45 am
We gotta unload those state parks!
Comment by The original Bill Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 7:47 am
The month of May just started. Are you kidding, the only people that are paying attention now are the people who’s minds are already made up.
Unless JBT has unlimited resources, which do not exist, keep the money in the bank and spend the money only when the undecided voters will be paying attention (likely no sooner than September).
Comment by yougotta-be-kidding-me Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 7:56 am
Bill, the 07 Budget story I read in our paper this morning shows $1.1 Billion deferred from the pension fund to cover $1.4 Billion added spending and $0 added revenue. If I recall, “deferred” means you are simply putting off the payment because you do not have the resources to cover your costs. Usually that means added debt, but in the bureaucratic world it simply becomes a payment that is put off to someone else’s responsibility.
I’m not a Repub, but great strides in what? More Medicaid programs that physicians are already losing money to provide and turning down patients? Universal preschool for 3-4 year olds? Love the $500 million in Demo pork projects. Glad to see the Gov has changed how government is run. It seems the Gov has just laid out JBT’s entire campaign: How are we going to pay for all this?
Comment by zatoichi Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 8:02 am
Bill- I always laugh at your postings- but you are truly goofy if you believe all the drivel that you are spewing.
Comment by roy slade Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 8:04 am
We know blago will poll Chicago harder, because he doesn’t know the rest of the state exists. He is spending a lot of money and hasn’t really come up with any big news that surprises anyone.
The polls will be off significantly in this race. Anyone tied to state government will likely not participate in a poll or say they are voting for Rod. None of them will. If he has a lead it isn’t by much. Judy doesn’t need to win the race in June, just stay in it until October. Which she can do by using free press and fundraising.
Comment by the Patriot Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 8:07 am
Obviously the AccordiOnGal is shell shocked.
She has whacked by the ads for a weeks. Her reaction is to say they are “dumb” (which is not a challenge to the ads being true) and the ultra bright “7 Days of Sunshine” effort (which got zero free media attention)
I think the Judy Bore Topinka label is catching on.
She should have been on the House floor with TomCross&theSockPuppets during the 4 hour death march on the budget. Instead she is in Shorewood.
Hmmm.
Waiting for Rove is a great idea too. Maybe she could zip out to DC for a photo op after a grand jury appearence.
Comment by Reddbyrd Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 8:21 am
TomCross and the SockPuppets……
I love it!
My favorite was Bill Black talking about taking a pig to his prom.
Comment by The original Bill Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 8:28 am
Rod is running a textbook campaign and running it well
Specifically, the Clinton campaign book. Just like he’s ran his term as Clinton did his. And yes, GB rod is running the campaign a lot better than he is the state.
He’s put JBT in a no win situation. She either runs dry NOW, replying to his ads, OR gets put in a hole so deep when she runs ads all they do is make a blow out a somewhat close election.
where’s Rove
She should ask her buddy Kjellander. After all, that is why we need KJ as committeeman, he can bring in Rove when we need him.
NOT.
She is reaping what she has sown.
Comment by Pat Collins Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 8:35 am
Topinka is not using earned media well, this is not always a problem but it certainly is when you are hugely out funded. Now the question is can you hold close enough without responding to save limited resources or are you going to be so far behind by the time you are able to go up with a significant buy that you cant make up the difference.
Comment by THE HANKSTER Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 8:50 am
Here’s another question to ponder. Legislators get projects put into the budget in exchange for their votes, sure that’s part of the legislative and official governmental process.
However, when a candidate, such as Reve. Meeks may decide whether or not to run for Governor based on projects being funded by the state seems more political than governmental to me. Couldn’t his decision not to run in return for state funded projects be considered using state resources for campaign purposes by Blagojevich?
I’m not saying anyone has crossed a legal or ethical line here, but based on some things you have written Rich - I think these questions are relevant.
Comment by Goodbye Napoleon Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 8:52 am
I think it’s way too early to tell if the ads are working. I’m not necessarily saying that Blago’s internal is wrong, but let’s face it…..he knows that he needs to create the illusion that JBT has lost momentum and is crashing so that he can suppress her fundraising efforts and preserve his most valuable advantage. The fact that Meeks’s poll shows the same things is a little more disconcerting, but I’ll wait to see an independent poll before I start to get really nervous.
That being said, I think JBT is doing the right thing by not responding right now. Only the hacks (myself included) who have already made up their mind are paying attention now….everyone else you talk to is too irritated by the mere presence of political ads on their tv right now to actually care what the ads say.
Comment by grand old partisan Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 8:58 am
At my health club there are walls of multiple televisions. During the 6:00 news programs, those ads were lighting up the screens like fireworks.
The groans were audible. One person said “Enough already. Tomorrow we’ll find out it’s all lies anyway.â€
I’ve seen the same thing at my health club. These are going to back fire.
There sour ads thrown at a sour electorate. It won’t work.
Comment by Bill Baar Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 9:28 am
It’s early in the campaign. Most people do not want to hear about politics now.
I agree with Disgusted on the governor:
http://backyardconservative.blogspot.com/2006/05/running-on-empty-ii.html
Comment by Backyard Conservative Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 9:36 am
The ads are not working. They are dumb. Those polls are not credible, he paid for them. Bloggers who think these ads are working are as delusional as the media flakes creating these dreadfully stupid ads.
Comment by VanillaMan Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 9:38 am
Original Bill, what in the world are you talking about?! You talk about how great Blagojevich has been financially, yet we are way behind on state medical payments. If he has been so good for the budget, read this… http://www.heartland.org/Article.cfm?artId=17487&CFID=4647348&CFTOKEN=23902684
That will tell you how good the gov has been. And the budget is still exploding over with pork. This years budget will be no different. But if I could get a hold of info that wasn’t coming directly out of the gov’s office, I might believe he was doing something substancial….
http://www.illinoispolicyinstitute.org/budget/IL_Piglet05.pdf
Comment by Lovie's Leather Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 9:45 am
Should Judy buy time to respond to the ads? Its a moot issue, she doesn’t have the money.
Comment by Never Judy Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 9:54 am
You guys are right. Rod will implode. Peter Hart’s polls are rubbish. Topinka should not spend a dime.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 10:27 am
Did Topinka really say that Blagojevich “..shoves it to you and sneaks it in and its wrong?” What exactly is she talking about? This is a Daily Show skit waiting to happen! Seriously, this is the kind of thing that will undermine her credibility with voters. Her crazy, off the cuff responses like this are going to make people in November ask, “what’s she thinking?”
Comment by anon Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 10:28 am
She is obviously thinking about Rod. Shame on you Judy, he’s a happily married man.
Comment by The original Bill Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 10:32 am
Oh my. He only polls Chicago (yes, because he’s actively trying to lose, genius). The focus group at my health club doesn’t like them.
The expert analysis here is stunning.
Comment by SenorAnon Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 10:34 am
For those of us in Illinois who cannot afford to join a health club because we are trying to pay for pre-school and health insurance and send our older kids to college and who want our streets to be safe, Rod’s commercials are relevant to our lives and we appreciate the governor’s efforts on our behalf.
Comment by The original Bill Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 10:41 am
They seen that negitive wasn’t getting the job done maybe this is a positive attempt to see if it will work.Org Bill you really know how to spread it there’s more bull manure here than at a 4H meeting.
Comment by DOWNSTATE Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 10:49 am
grand old partisan: Don’t you have to have momentum in order to lose it? JBT ever having momentum? Please!
Comment by JIMBO Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 10:50 am
Original Bill: well said my friend.
Comment by UPSTATE Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 10:56 am
The guys in my gym class love the ads. Pickelball rules!
Comment by Gittles Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 11:06 am
What are the poll numbers?
Comment by Tim Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 11:09 am
Remember one thing all that this gov. is going to give us has to be paid for some day.That day, with our bond rating so low and all the special funds almost broke, is close at hand.Our revenue growth isn’t strong enough to pay many bills so where will the money come from and what will his poll numbers be then.
Comment by DOWNSTATE Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 11:22 am
The ads are working. The strategy is smart: define Judy before the dialogue shifts completely to whatever indictments come down, suppress her fundraising; make people think JBT isn’t just like your kooky but lovable aunt, but instead is really nuts and a right wing stooge. It’s very smart and should work.
Frankly, she has no choice but to hold off on ads at this point. She won’t be able to compete dollar for dollar so she’s adopted the Edwin Eisendrath strategy - keep your nose clean and pray for indictments. But if they don’t come down, she’s toast.
And for those that are doing health club polls, people almost always hate negative ads and say nasty things about them. But they consistently work which is why they keep getting used.
Comment by ChicagoCynic Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 11:29 am
I have a revelation. Blago cannot win in November unless he does one thing. If he doesn’t do it his campaign will be undercut by back room deals and double crossing till his head is spinning and he won’t know where his support is coming from.
Can anyone guess what that one thing is he needs to do?
I’ll post the answer at the end of the day.
Comment by Merlin Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 11:31 am
Merlin, we’ll all be waiting with baited breath…
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 11:34 am
The adds make good fodder for blogers, nothing more. There is nothing Rod can do to win. 30% of democrats voted against him. To put that in perspective. Downstate, he lost 30% of his own party to a guy who has NEVER been to most down state counties, and NEVER spent a penny here. that is a guaranteed 30% of D’s not voting for him and 0% of R’s voting for him. The rest makes for good coversation. The only issue of real interest is whether Lisa has the moxy to indict Rod before Fitz and ensure her legacy for the next 10 years in the state.
Comment by the Patriot Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 11:40 am
The Edwin Eisendrath strategy???
Oh my God, please.
Comment by B Hicks Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 11:40 am
You’re right Patriot.
Governor Netch rode Jack Roeser’s 25% showing in the 1994 GOP Primary all the way to denying St. Jim Edgar a second term, didn’t she…
Comment by SenorAnon Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 12:09 pm
There is a significant difference between Jim Edgar and Rod. First, Jim Edgar actually balanced the budget and was loved by conservative democrats. Blago has put us in more debt then all the previous governors of the state combined and is hated by the conservative democrats. Big, Big, Big difference. Oh yea, one more-Jim Edgar never served a day in prison, which is more then Rod will be able to say 7 years from now.
You can laugh it off all you want, but even if he wins, he kills the party. This electioon is a Win Win for the GOP. Just a question of whether the Dems will cut ties and save their party.
Comment by the Patriot Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 1:06 pm
I love how the Topinka supporters boast of their lead in the polls when she’s ahead, but denounce them when she’s down. The fact is that Blagojevich’s ads have led to a 10 point turnaround in the numbers. Wait until the summer when he hits the trail signing feel good bills all over the state. In addition to being unable to match Blagojevich in paid media, the free media he gets will be difficult for her to match as well. What great news does the Treasurer have to bring to the state?
By the way, if she doesn’t respond to the negative ads, this race is over. Just like Edgar did to Netsch in 1994.
Comment by Lodaboy Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 1:07 pm
Perhaps, just maybe, running ads constantly with TOPINKA this, TOPINKA that….it just elevates her and her name recognition. If she doesn’t yet have the funds to run commericials, Blago is doing her a favor by running them for her. What folks will remember is that there IS an alternative to the current governor. That being said, I’m waiting on Judy to respond and respond forcefully and with a clear sense of direction on where this State should be headed.
Comment by Dem Voting R Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 1:18 pm
LODOBOY what are you smoking to see a poll like that the only poll that says Blago is leading is his own and he won’t admit to anyone that he’s losing.
Comment by DOWNSTATE Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 1:19 pm
This is just a tangent here, but it’s something that’s really been getting on my nerves lately. And that is this whole blame/credit game for Blago/Ryan/Topinka and state finances.
Blagojevich loves to take credit for the state’s improved finances and blame either George Ryan or Judy Baar Topinka for its crummy fiscal condition when he took over after Sept. 11.
But Illinois’ financial situation has been pretty similar to all of the states at large.
When Rod Blagojevich talks about the $5 billion deficit (that really wasn’t), he was facing the same types of staggering shortfalls that governors across the country were facing. And only one of them had previously been run by George Ryan. Now that the state is taking in more money, he’s patting himself on the back. But again that’s par for the course.
This is pretty well-documented, but check out some stories from Stateline.org (where I work) if you don’t believe it: No red ink showing on state ledgers and 42 states foresee a surplus this fiscal year
So given that situation, the question is how the governor managed the ups and downs. That’s a legitimate debate. So is anything that makes Illinois stand out from the rest of the crowd. But this “Who’s to blame for the effects of a national economy going up and down?” line of argument is just bogus.
Comment by Dan Vock Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 1:36 pm
The sense I am getting from talking to people who are not very political is that the ads are backfiring, both because people think it’s way too early to see these constant attacks on television and because people are dubious about the claims made in the ads.
I am also hearing from conservative folks who had been very lukewarm about Judy that the attack are making them want to rally around her, both because they think she is being unfairly attacked by a sleazy liberal politician and because they have now found out that she might not look fondly on assault weapon bans and that she was supportive of tax cuts.
As frustrating as it must be for her campaign and for her supporters to sit back and watch this happen, the smart thing is probably to do the whole political rope-a-dope and let Blago spend his money while the backlash continues.
Every public poll since the primary has had her ahead. I don’t know what the validity of these Blago and Meeks polls would be but at this point in 2002, Blagojevich was leading Jim Ryan in public polls by 18 points and wound up winning by 7, before he had all the baggage that he currently has. A big part of how Jim Ryan was able to narrow the gap was the backlash against Blagojevich who in a debate somehow managed to try to tie the death of the Willis children to Jim Ryan. The more people see of the Desperate Blago in campaign mode, the less they like him.
Considering that he does not wear well throughout a lengthy campaign, I think he might be just where we want him.
Comment by Establishment Republican Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 1:39 pm
I think the complaint here is yes our revenue is up but it is being mismanaged by people who don’t know or only has one idea of state funded programs for re-election chances.
Comment by DOWNSTATE Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 1:44 pm
“Topinka is in trouble. The Meeks poll shows that Blagojevich has gained about 10% points since the last poll. With little else going on, the ads are absolutely having an effect. They are pretty good at pointing out where she and blagojevich differ on important policy issues like the assault weapons ban and the minimum wage. Furthermore, according to Tom Roeser’s blog, she was the one who made the comment bashing bush and his administration and saying that she would only allow him to fundraise for her from an undisclosed location. She tried to pin that on a staffer and now the angry President has cancelled a planned fundraiser for her.
With support from national republicans waning, unresponded to negative ads which are dragging her numbers down, and a generally lethargic campaign in general, she is in serious trouble. If she doesn’t get her act together quickly, the money won’t come in and she will be unable to undo the harm from the ads.
The wheels are coming off.”
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 1:48 pm
Patriot,
His holiness Jim Edgar balanced the budget by, guess what?….”raiding” the pension funds causing the problems that you routinely blame the governor for. After he was sure he wasn’t going to be in office anymore, he supported the time bomb 1995 legislation with the bomb set to go off in 2005.
Boom, it went off, which caused the financial problems of 2006. Fortunately we had a strong leader in Rod Blagojevich who could deal with the mess. So, go ahead, wait for the mythical indictments.That is always your comment of last resort. As far as integrity goes ask former Kemper share holders what they think of his holiness.
Gooooooo Seabiscuit!
Comment by The original Bill Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 1:53 pm
ANON 1:48 is this the same Meeks that is blackmailing Blago for 6 billion and Blago is still rolling around in the floor laughing.The poll he took is part of a blackmail scam which is starting to unravel.So I wouldn’t put to much into this Preacher/Blackmailers poll.
Comment by DOWNSTATE Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 2:06 pm
So many different points…hard…to…follow.
Let me get this straight, according to Patriot (and others);
The ads are too early to work (Judy doesn’t even need to work until October), but “There is nothing Rod can do to win.”
So which is it? Is it too early, or is the election already over.
And then, the same Patriot, after schooling us about Rod’s inability to win, says that, “even if he wins, he kills the party.”
So now it is too early even though it is over but he can win, but that’s bad for the party.
I see.
Oh, and Edgar never served time, and even though Blagojevich hasn’t either, Patriot’s contention that he will in seven years is the same as him having done so.
And let’s not forget, Blagojevich only polls Chicago (pssst…don’t tell everyone that one poll was Meeks’ - a potential RIVAL to Blagojevich). And he doesn’t poll state workers.
Because that’t how polls work.
Well, sounds like you’ve got it all figured out. Or something.
Comment by SenorAnon Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 2:13 pm
And Downstate, if I were blackmailing you, why would I use my numbers to strengthen your position?
Seriously, put about three seconds of semi-conscious thought into that one.
Comment by SenorAnon Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 2:30 pm
I love the ads. Especially the tag line, “Whats she thinking?” Its so true.
Topinka deserves to be called out on her whacky positions and flip-flopping stances.
I find it most amusing that she slams the Governor for slashing state payroll/waste and then holds a press conference saying she wants to hire 13,000 more employess. When asked how are you going to pay for it, she always says, I’ll have to wait and see what the books say. Excuse me, but as Treasurer shouldnt you KNOW what the books say? Your office gets a copy of all the fiscal reports just like everyone else.
Her campaign WANTS to respond to the ads, but they cant. Their numbers are tanking hence all the flashy, but light on substance press conferences that arent working. She cant afford commercials so she is trying the free route to little success.
Comment by Roomie Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 2:39 pm
You have combined some of my points with others but yes, the ads are way early and joe voter is not paying attention.
The point on state workers is there is about 100,000 in IL. Plus spouses. They will not show up accuratly on poll data because they will not take the poll. None of them will vote for Blago.
If he loses, the D party can rally behind Lisa, and Mike, and be ok. The GOP gets a win by the mansion comming back. If Rod wins, he will be indicted in office which will sink the Democrat party. Especially when Lisa Madigan sat by and did nothing which she will continue to do.
Someone above tried to analogize this race to Edgar’s the point is, Edgar was a much more popluar Governor with not nearly as much controversy. It has been about 7+ years Since Edgar left office. You will see Blago in jail 7 years after he leaves office.
You act like I am making it up but I did not raid the IDOT building. I did not draft audits saying his CMS was a scam, I did not put police line tape over the office doors of his cronies. Too bad we will have long lost this issue before Rod sings he jailhouse rock, but he will.
The ads will not overcome all of this.
Comment by the Patriot Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 2:40 pm
Dan Vock -
In a sane world, you and Steve Schnorf would be the Budget Czars.
You are correct. The Federal Reserve influences the economy. The President of the U.S. can, sometimes, but just barely, and usually only through trade policy or multi-billion expenditures.
Governors have almost no short-term influence on the economy whatsoever. They ride out a wave that someone else created. To the degree they can influence the economy, it is 5-10 years down the road, through long-term investments, not short-term gimmicks.
Unfortunately Dan, I blame the media, which senselessly perpetuates this myth every time someone issues a press release blaming someone for job losses or taking credit for job gains.
To get back on track though, Topinka should definitely, definitely, definitely not run any ads until September.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 2:42 pm
YDD, thanks, but anyone who’s seen my credit card bills would never put me in charge of a state budget.
Comment by Dan Vock Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 2:46 pm
Original Bill & YDD: One can always blame the economy, just as one can believe any poll they wish to. If the world economy and the U.S. economy is and has been growing, why is it stagnant and shrinking in Illinois? GRod is killing Illinois with his *policies*. It is a fact. If you don’t believe me and before you rail at me, read some business sections in newspapers and you will see the numbers in black and white.
Less revenue + more spending = more debt. A Blago trademark for his accomplishments these past few years.
Comment by Papa Legba Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 3:15 pm
YDD: My comment is describing how a Governor can have a short-term influence on the economy. Its called fiscal irresponsibility.
Comment by Papa Legba Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 3:17 pm
Ok, as promised, here is the only way Mod Rod can win reelection.
He must publicly acknowledge and thank his father in law for supporting his career. He must apologize for showing him disrespect and he must put him in charge of his political operations.
I don’t have the time or the inclination to list all the ways this would change the dynamic of this election but suffice it to say while Rod and his yuppie handlers are busy stroking themselves for these dumb commercials they are getting torched.
He has no political enforcer and there is no discipline among the committeemen who can and are cutting whatever deals they want.
Argue over all polls all you wish but if he does not make amends he will wake up one Wednesday morning in November wondering what truck hit him.
Comment by Merlin Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 4:17 pm
OK, JBT does not need to start running ads yet due to the following:
Rock Solid Backing from all factions of her party.
Long track record of being a reformer and a GOP outsider with no ties to other GOP “players”.
A huge lead in the polls.
Money pouring in from all directions.
Solid ideas and solutions for the state’s problems which she talks about to the media.
Beloved by everyone with no “baggage” or investigations having gone on in her office.
Solid support from the poplular US President.
Her GOP in Illinois is in great shape and ready to win on every level.
I suppose she is right, nothing to worry about.
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 6:00 pm
Public Official A, specifially Blago, is running a different campaign most definitely; however, let’s not forget that one of his employees wore a wire for the Feds. Nuff said about that. But there is an old phrase, Too Big Too Soon. That’s what’s going on with Blago. Plus, if you are really sick and tired of his two slam ads with 2-3 other non-political ads being sandwiched between, do what I’m doing. First of all, mute your TV. Then write down the names of the companies whose ads are running between the slam ads, then call those advertisers and let them know where their ad is placed and what an INEFFECTIVE use this is of their advertising money. Without a single doubt, each and every person I have called is not happy with the TV stations doing this to their ads. There’s more than one way to beat Blogo and his kids at their game. Sometimes no matter how much money you have, you just can’t buy an election.
Comment by Little Egypt Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 7:38 pm
So Original Bill, what state office are you setting in talking about this GREAT Gov, we have…I’m still waiting for him to “ROCK THE SYSTEM” and clean up this pay to play politics…Sounds like once again the Gov started talking before he thought..His staffers had to come tell him, you can’t change that, we will not be able to raise any money. If anyone out there thinks that what Hot Rod is doing is legit, I got some land I want to sell them. I see whats going on inside state gov. as well as outside, keep living in your dream world, Original Bill, I can see in what you have typed and expressed, your a die hard “D” and will go down with the sinking ship. It’s going down brother, don’t be so blind that you cannot see it, this administration will end up like George Ryan. Another messy trial……….. JBT needs to set and watch before responding, remember she has hired an excellent campaign manager in McFadden, seasoned and smart. Don’t count this campaign out yet, should be interesting. Let the Gov continue to make his empty promises, he has credibility problems already, it will just get worse.
Comment by dumb ol' country boy Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 7:43 pm
TOB - Those special funds, in many instances, do benefit many Illinois residents. Funds to remove leaking underground storage tanks, funds (gathered from licensure fees for architects and engineers) are to enforce the legitimate practice of those professions. By their licensure, architects are pledged to safeguard the health, safety and welfare of the citizens of the state. However, real estate agents, contractors, draftsmen, lumber yards, and developers have made no such pledge, and are typically not knowledgeable of code requirements. Because of the sweep of special funds that were intended for enforcement of the architecture act, there is only one (1!) inspector for all of the state - only to respond to complaints. That inspector is, of course, in Chicago. There is nothing south of I-80.
Is that good government?
Comment by Ethel Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 9:23 pm
The saddest part of this whole discussion is the steady underlying stream through the governor’s supporters responses that it doesn’t matter how the game is played and who gets hurt, it’s more important that he win This is in spite of his untrustworthyness, his turning on many of his supporters, his inability to keep peace in his own family, his spending the citizen’s money “like a drunken sailor,” his tempting fate by arrogantly dismissing the Fitzgerald threat and his treating the people doing the taxpayers’ business with utmost contempt. He’s our very own Gordon Gecko
(remember the movie “Wall Street.”) Most of the citizens of this country are offended by such behavior.
Comment by Disgusted Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 10:43 pm
First, Dan, great and insightful comments, as usual. To Papa Legba, please re-read Dan’s comments and then look to the stats on how Illinois is doing relative to other states in a nationally improving economy, post 911 and the dotcom bubble burst of 4/01 (state’s became too dependent on the capital gains that disappeared that year and thereafter). The improvements in jobs, revenue growth, etc relative to other state’s may actually confirm some of the short term and fiscal management issues you raise.
As to the campaign ads, it is never good politics to leave attacks unanswered. If JBT has some money, she should be spending it to avoid getting pushed into a whole too deep to recover from come Fall. Spending some money now also may help fundraising in demonstrating that she is viable and capable of engaging in a sustained campaign. Clearly she can not match dollar for dollar, but as the Governor’s team has proven, there is a lot of free “earned” media resulting from the placement of paid advertisements.
Comment by Been There Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 11:17 pm
hole not “whole” sorry
Comment by Been There Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 11:22 pm
Forgot to add on the ads, I agree with the various points of ChicagoCynic 11:29, SenorAnon 12:09, Lodaboy 1:07, and YDD 2:42 (sacrastic goading not to run ads), that the ads are hurting JBT and will show in polls soon. People may say they don’t like negative ads and that it is too early because people are not yet focused, but they ultimately leave impressions that (if unanswered early) can, and do, influence decisions when it really does become fish or cut bait time come November.
Comment by Been There Thursday, May 4, 06 @ 11:42 pm
Been There: Could you please point me to a link that may have HARD data to back up what Dan said? His comments and links don’t provide much data, just words. I thought Lovie’s Leather’s comments + links in his 9:45 post spoke a bit louder than Dan’s did. I think they do confirm what I was stating. Why even go into the dot-com boom? Any state that was relying on gains made during the boom to balance their budgets, well that was just plain stupid. The portfolio manager for Illinois at the time should have been hung if Illinois was over invested in the Tech Sector. Any financial advisor could see that run-up was an aberration. In 2000 when the bubble burst GRyan was in office. So I guess you can blame him for our states financial problems now. The market took a dump when under his watch. Bottom line is this state is in trouble financially and Blago’s policies do not help. End of story.
Dan, please no offense intended. Been There steered us down this street.
Comment by Papa Legba Friday, May 5, 06 @ 12:44 am
As staff you try to encourage elected officials not to take credit for good things that are happening that are beyond their control, because you know that if they do, they are going to own the blame when the good things start going bad, even though they’re still beyond their control. It rarely works.
Comment by steve schnorf Friday, May 5, 06 @ 1:14 am
Judy should be doing some ads even though they are limited in numbers. If she doesn’t reach the hearts and minds of the voters until just before the election, all will be lost. People are burnt out by political ads a month or two before elections and they just mentally tune them out.
Comment by Beowulf Monday, May 8, 06 @ 6:37 am
Unfortunately, we didn’t get the 300,000 signatures needed to put the Illinois Healthcare Referendum on the ballot. Why do we have to go through that anyways. How about putting together a viable plan and just putting it on the ballot instead of volunteers standing on every streetcorner beggingfor signatures.
Comment by What's Left Tuesday, May 9, 06 @ 6:52 am