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Is Gill losing ground?

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Illinois

A brand new poll in Illinois’ newly redrawn 13th District shows Democrat David Gill continues to lead in the race for Congress. In a poll conducted August 4-7 for Gill’s campaign by Victoria Research and Consulting among 400 registered likely 2012 general election voters, the Bloomington emergency physician holds the lead in the initial trial heat with 36% for Gill to 30% for Republican Rodney Davis and 9% for Independent John Hartman with the remainder undecided. The poll’s margin of error is +/- 4.9%.

The poll’s results indicate that Davis has made no progress since an earlier April poll, in which the Republican got 31% of the vote against Dr. Gill. Gill’s lead continues to grow in additional ballot tests throughout the course of the poll. The poll reflected that Gill has a solid base of supporters in the Champaign/Bloomington area, whereas Davis is an unknown quantity, with 4 out of 5 voters in the district not recognizing his name at all.

The poll’s results also indicate, however, that Gill is losing ground and that the independent candidate may be taking away votes from the perennial Democratic candidate. That April poll taken by the Democrats had Gill leading Davis 41-31, before Davis was even a candidate.

* Also from the press release…

“The last thing voters in central or southwest Illinois want is a career political insider who has been on taxpayer payrolls or bankrolled by politicians since he was 23 years old,” commented campaign manager Mike Richards. “People in the new 13th District know they can’t trust Rodney Davis to clean things up. He was handpicked by Washington insiders who want to keep controlling Congress.”

In recent days, Gill’s campaign received the endorsement of US Senator Richard Durbin on Sunday

Um, I think Sen. Durbin also qualifies as a “career political insider.” Also, doesn’t running for Congress every two years for the past eight kinda make Gill a career wannabe insider?

* The DCCC is using this poll as a reason to elevate Gill’s status…

U.S. Rep. Steve Israel of New York, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, had a conference call Wednesday to announce the addition of 13 races nationally to what it calls “red-to-blue” status. There are now 51 races nationally they put in that category, and the two Illinois candidates newly named to the list are David GillL of Bloomington in the 13th, who is running against Republican Rodney Davis of Taylorville; and William Enyart, former adjutant general of the Illinois National Guard, who is taking on Republican Jason Plummer in the new 12th District in southwestern Illinois.

“It’s a district that gave President (Barack) Obama nearly 56 percent of the vote,” Israel said of the new 13th, which includes part of Springfield. He said Gill has “put together a … very impressive grass-roots campaign.”

* But…

U.S. Rep. Steve Isreal of New York is committee chairman. The (Champaign) News-Gazette reports that Israel says the committee will provide technical expertise to Gill in the 13th District race and what he called other support.

It isn’t clear what that other support is, and Gill spokesman Michael Richards says Gill isn’t yet sure.

* And let’s get back to the independent candidate for a moment…

Hartman said this morning that he wasn’t surprised by his showing.

“I think I’ve met about 8,000 people, when I was petitioning (to get on the election ballot) and I got very good feedback because I was an indepenedent. I was in Carrollton and I asked 20 people to sign my petition and 19 signed. In Litchfield I asked 26 people on the last day of my petition drive and all 26 signed it and wished me well. I know that this is a viable campaign.”

In the feedback he has received, Hartman said, “They just said ‘I’m going to vote for anybody who’s not in there.’

“In this case we don’t have an incumbent, but that’s the mood. I heard that over and over again. ‘We need fresh blood. You can’t be as bad as they are.’ That kind of stuff.”

* Related…

* Durbin calls Gill best choice for 13th District seat

* Candidate Rodney Davis meets with Sen. Kirk

* Congressional candidate Rodney Davis: More gun laws unneeded

* Rutherford says Davis can be bipartisan

* Davis endorsed by Farm Bureau

posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Aug 9, 12 @ 12:05 pm

Comments

–“Rodney will help bring civility back to Washington,” Rutherford said.

Davis said he hoped to emulate Rutherford in working alongside Democrats.

“Rutherford works in bipartisan ways, and that is the sort of thing I hope to bring to Washington,” Davis said.–

That’s an interesting spin. I’m not sure those two have gotten the memos from the Tea Partiers who run the GOP.

Lugar got tossed in the Indy GOP primary by a nobody who promised not to work across the aisle.

Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Aug 9, 12 @ 12:16 pm
=== Um, I think Sen. Durbin also qualifies as a “career political insider.” Also, doesn’t running for Congress every two years for the past eight kinda make Gill a career wannabe insider? ===

Exactly. And if Gill is elected, he’s gonna go around and endorse/tout how great other “career politicians” in his party are.

Comment by Just Observing Thursday, Aug 9, 12 @ 12:24 pm
Rodney Davis = Pat’s Brady’s money launderer in chief (okay fine, alledged money launderer)

If the IL GOP wasn’t so dumb and dirty, and had slated Erika Harold instead of Davis, this race would be over. She would be coasting to victory and lifting GOP candidates up and down the ballot across the state. Instead, it’s a huge chore now trying to drag a party hack who no one is excited about over the finish line.

Comment by too obvious Thursday, Aug 9, 12 @ 12:35 pm
YDD,

I am not going to count my Cannoli until they are filled …

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Aug 9, 12 @ 1:00 pm
There’s a big difference between being an elected official like Durbin and a political hack like Davis, who bounced from a taxpayer-funded salary to Shimkus’ campaign and back. Hell, he’s already lost two races, in his hometown areas!

Comment by Former Downstater Thursday, Aug 9, 12 @ 2:01 pm
If Republicans had nominated Clarke or Erica Harold and not Pat Brady’s money launderer who is tying himself to the unpopular Ryan Budget that guts Medicare, this should have been an easy hold.

Republicans shoot themselves in the foot again.

Comment by Medicare Champion Thursday, Aug 9, 12 @ 2:10 pm
===If Republicans had nominated Clarke…===

If you think Clarke would have been better than Davis after all the shenanigans with the domain being saved and the “heartfelt” form letters, then you are just blind to all that went down.

If you don’t like Davis, fair enough, but to say Jerry Clarke would have been better with all the baggage he had with the appearance of knowledge beforehand, then you are just wrong about who would or would not be better.

How about rallying around Davis so it stays in Republican hands? If Gill wins, is that going to make you “feel” better?

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Aug 9, 12 @ 2:15 pm
“If Gill wins, is that going to make you “feel” better?”

Yes.

Comment by too obvious Thursday, Aug 9, 12 @ 2:36 pm
Yes, Durbin is a political insider, but he is a political insider who endorsed Gill’s opponent in the Democratic primary. So Gill had to buck his party’s establishment to get the nomination. Davis, on the other hand, was handpicked by his party’s establishment. Perhaps more to the point, anybody who has talked to David for more than a few minutes realizes that David is a very independent thinker. He will do what he feels he must do to get elected, but he really wants to help good things to happen for the people he wants to represent.

Comment by jake Thursday, Aug 9, 12 @ 2:52 pm
===“If Gill wins, is that going to make you “feel” better?”

Yes.===

And this is why we are in the Minority here in IL. If you can’t make the case for Davis over Gill in the precincts with how different they seeem to be, then that is also on you. If you decide to “dump” Davis for better races, then that is up to you too. To say that Davis is a drag, considering the political differences between the two is a clear sign that the ILGOP is no better off than it was the last few cycles.

Cut off that nose to save our face … and be in that Minority … but do not complain about the Dems, because … well, … you think Gill is better than Davis because of the “perceived” drag on the ticket, considering 4 of 5, according to that poll, still don’t even KNOW Davis.

“Yea! We lost the seat … that will show MY party!”

Sad …

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Aug 9, 12 @ 2:55 pm
“If you can’t make the case for Davis over Gill in the precincts with how different they seeem to be, then that is also on you.”

No it’s not.

I can’t make the case for a money launderer who only got the ballot slot thanks to a rigged processs run by his insider pals.

The GOP will remain in the minority in IL as long as lickspittles keep enabling bad actors and their bad behavior.

Comment by too obvious Thursday, Aug 9, 12 @ 3:17 pm
By my count, the last eight years dates back to 2004, when Gill first ran. However, he didn’t run in the 2008 cycle. Only ‘04, ‘06, ‘10, and now.

And would it not be unusual for Gill to be “losing ground” once people know who his actual opponent is and learn about that person? It doesn’t mean Gill is losing ground so much as Davis has gained some.

Comment by Aaron Thursday, Aug 9, 12 @ 3:21 pm
–”Yea! We lost the seat … that will show MY party!”

Sad …–

And that’s why Willie has agreed to let Jason Plummer claim Willie’s tax returns are his own.

Got you, Willie!

Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Aug 9, 12 @ 3:23 pm
I would let Jason claim my tax returns, but mine are not done in Crayon, and I have no doodles in the margins, so it’s tough.

My worry for Jason is that the SEC and the FEC are goiung to put 2 and 2 together with his self-funding and Jason is going to blow it!

Jason being one of 435 is alright by me. The comedy will write itself!

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Aug 9, 12 @ 3:30 pm
Willie, the SEC has been fumbling around in the dark for its dentures since before Lehman went down.

Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Aug 9, 12 @ 3:37 pm
===Jason being one of 435 is alright by me. The comedy will write itself!

*&#&@ There goes my productivity. But you did tell me you were okay with losing him as a target.

Comment by ArchPundit Thursday, Aug 9, 12 @ 3:37 pm
===It doesn’t mean Gill is losing ground so much as Davis has gained some.===

Um, look at the numbers from Gill’s two polls. He’s losing real ground. Davis gained a point.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Aug 9, 12 @ 3:38 pm
===But you did tell me you were okay with losing him as a target. ===

If he has to go to Congress … or as Jason says “Space Camp”, I might as well enjoy it, he ain’t my congressman, and congress is where he will do the least damage so far.

- wordslinger -

Remember, the SEC got Bud Fox, and as much as Bud Fox would like to be Gordon Gecco, He was still only Bud Fox … think about that!

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Aug 9, 12 @ 3:44 pm
=The GOP will remain in the minority in IL as long as lickspittles keep enabling bad actors and their bad behavior.=

lol Is that a spin on DC is Hollywood for ugly people and their paparazzi, too obvious? Obviously doesn’t apply to everyone, but there are a few now who have certainly raised “crass and brash” to a whole new level in their clownish pursuits to become the new “class” of elites.

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Aug 9, 12 @ 3:44 pm
How sad. Republicans were once known for their self-confidence, strength, and honor v. moneygrubbing.

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Aug 9, 12 @ 3:49 pm
I don’t even know what passes for an “elite” in IL politics.

Comment by too obvious Thursday, Aug 9, 12 @ 4:07 pm
===- too obvious - Thursday, Aug 9, 12 @ 4:07 pm:

I don’t even know what passes for an “elite” in IL politics.===

GREAT statement … I dunno either …what does pass as “elite”?

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Aug 9, 12 @ 4:13 pm
=I don’t even know what passes for an “elite” in IL politics.=

Exactly. Those days are long gone. Thank goodness for increasing numbers of lickspittles with special interests. Otherwise, the actors would no longer have an audience.

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Aug 9, 12 @ 4:17 pm
=GREAT statement … I dunno either …what does pass as “elite”?=

Ethical public servants, maybe? Those who were respected for their strength and honor and were committed to serving their State and Country. Those who were more confident about getting re-elected for their accomplishments v. media saavy and campaign strategies. It was always a “smallish” group.

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Aug 9, 12 @ 4:24 pm
Got a list?

There are many great ones … but who is on your list?

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Aug 9, 12 @ 4:26 pm
===There are many great ones … but who is on your list? ===

Meaning … who is an “elite”… not just great

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Aug 9, 12 @ 4:27 pm
I’m not taking the bait, Willy. No one’s perfect. I’m just continuing the discussion too obvious started regarding “lickspittles” and comparing today’s practices to those of a time you probably didn’t even live through. Do you have an issue with that?

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Aug 9, 12 @ 4:29 pm
Nope … just continuing it as well …

And although it is safe to say I was not around during the Bill Thompson / Bathhoust Coughlin “era” … you may be suprised what ANY of us have lived through … just a thought.

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Aug 9, 12 @ 4:34 pm
=Meaning … who is an “elite”… not just great=

Have I perhaps offended, Willy, by using the term “elite?” Is it too exclusive? Perhaps only appropriate for e.g., military contexts (e.g., Navy Seals)?

If so, please consider forgiving me. I believe the term “elite” can apply to those who are good at doing “bad” things, as well.

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Aug 9, 12 @ 4:47 pm
===Have I perhaps offended, Willy,…===

Not in the slightest! Nope. If you thought you did, I apologize.

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Aug 9, 12 @ 4:54 pm
No apology necessary, Willy. I apologize for misunderstanding your questions/comments and therefore jumping to an inaccurate assumption.

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Aug 9, 12 @ 4:57 pm
=I don’t even know what passes for an “elite” in IL politics.=

I’d imagine there’s a guy who lives in a house in which Southwest Airlines wheels scrape the roof every one in a while might make the list.

You don’t land at Midway, you live through a controlled crash. Wave to the folks at the Baby Doll Polka Club on takeoff/landing.

Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Aug 9, 12 @ 6:58 pm
I would say the 13th Ward Committeeman is an Elite, - Wordslinger -, but I guess is “That’s the list” closing on MJM tell the story of IL & IL politics?

Guess that’s rhetorical?

- anonymous -, you & I are All Good on my end, no doubt. I enjoy the back & forth with much respect for you on my side, for sure

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Aug 9, 12 @ 7:15 pm
Hey, - ArchPundit -, was this what you were talking about?

===- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Mar 21, 12 @ 4:47 pm:

===So Willy, is it better for you for him to win and have so much material or lose and have so much material the next time he runs? ===

That is like asking which REAL Plummer quote is the most priceless …

Win - I get all the Freshman jokes, all the “fit-in” jokes …

Lose - I get the family/Dad/money jokes, the akward HS or College rejection jokes …

Hopefully we all win till November and take it from there … don’t make me choose.===

I will indeed see how it shakes out, but I stand by the post I made in response to ya on March 21st.

Fair?

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Aug 9, 12 @ 9:18 pm