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* How do you think the Chicago school strike will end?

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Sep 11, 12 @ 2:06 pm

Comments

There will be a period of PR and then they will finally get back to the negotiating table and meet somewhere in the middle. I make no prediction on the level of lingering animosity though.

Comment by The Captain Tuesday, Sep 11, 12 @ 2:08 pm
Badly.

Comment by Cincinnatus Tuesday, Sep 11, 12 @ 2:11 pm
It’ll be over in around 3 weeks. The parties will find some way to come together. And may I say, if they do get air conditioning in all the schools, that’ll be a major win for the students in those schools as well.

The mayor will likely find some way to try to fund more charters and the CTU will probably behind the scenes start getting partners to advocate for an elected BoE.

Comment by cermak_rd Tuesday, Sep 11, 12 @ 2:12 pm
zombie apocalypse.

oh, wait, you mean for real….. as soon as the White House can make it look like they have NOT intervened, there will be an agreement. there will be some reasoned statement that, “….for the children, cause they all can be brilliant….” and maybe AC for an actual result.

Comment by amalia Tuesday, Sep 11, 12 @ 2:18 pm
It will get overshadowed by the Cubs winning 21 in a row to steal a wildcard play-off spot. Oh sorry, I thought snark was encouraged.

But seriously, I think both sides will be reasonable and realize that they both can’t be happy, so they’ll agree that no one is happy but everyone is working (which makes everyone happy.)

Comment by What planet is he from? Tuesday, Sep 11, 12 @ 2:20 pm
Two weeks, and then the City will cave. They will pay more money, they will not have an effective way to get rid of bad teachers, and we will continue to wonder why we have miserable schools.

It always happens. They are negotiating with money that is not their own. They will feel heat and give in.

Those of us lucky to afford to do so will pay taxes to support bad teachers and will pay tuition to support good teachers.

Comment by Skeeter Tuesday, Sep 11, 12 @ 2:21 pm
I think Rahm will start picking one school a day and immediately charterize it. After two days, Karen Lewis will come to City Hall with her will broken. The teachers will accept a 4% raise over 4 years as part of the new deal.

Comment by Send in Rahmbo Tuesday, Sep 11, 12 @ 2:22 pm
Will end in 1-2 weeks with as suggested above the city moving more than the CTU. Both come out smelling bad.

FYI, Rich - Roe Conn just gave you an on-air plug for the earlier entry on the makeup and philosophy of the CTU leadership.

Comment by Ron Burgundy Tuesday, Sep 11, 12 @ 2:23 pm
Any one who is honest can tell you why we have bad schools and it isn’t because of a few “bad” teachers. Take off the rose colored glasses.

Comment by geronimo Tuesday, Sep 11, 12 @ 2:25 pm
Substantively, papered-over, at least for a year. There will be lip service for air conditioning, the 16% 4-year pay raise and a verbal promise by Rahm to lay off (pun unintended) the harsher anti-teacher attacks. On class size and evaluation, that’s where the CYA comes in. Either a commission or a multi-year investigation of class size reduction options, to be unearthed when/if the city has money again. On evaluation, status quo.

More interesting is the future of the CTU, particularly CORE. The CTU is united mostly by id right now, but that can’t last forever. If CORE can’t deliver after a big risk like this strike, we might be in for the crash and burn of Karen Lewis.

We’ll also see a statistically significant uptick in charter school lottery applications. If this goes on for too long, parents are going to flee traditional CPS in droves. The messaging from CTU has been so combative that it’s hard for plan-ahead parents to assume that this won’t happen again, especially if they only get a temporary contract.

Comment by tikkunolam Tuesday, Sep 11, 12 @ 2:27 pm
It will end like the end of Gadfather I, with Rahm taking care of all “CTU” business in one swoop.

or…

Actually, it is going to end after Rahm makes the CTU and its leadership, (especially its President) seem petty, ungrateful, and lacking a sense of the reality of what families face every day.

People are going to turn on the teachers, and Rahm is real good at moving his message and agenda forward, and the CTU got into a “Madigan” situation; the CTU is now playing a game of chackers, as Rahm will start moving this to a chess game, looking far into his moves, to check-mate CTU while they are worrying about getting “king-ed”, and Rahm will work to get them “crowned”!

Give it 10 days …

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 11, 12 @ 2:28 pm
I’m likely overly optimistic, but with the polling Rich posted showing terrible numbers for Rahm’s handling of the strike, I bet that by next week, the city caves on most of the issues, winning just enough to save face. Or, if public opinion changes in the next week, then the CTU caves on most of the issues, winning just enough to save face.

In week one, most parents can take time off work to care for their own kids. Subsequent weeks become much more difficult for Chicago parents.

Comment by Robert the Bruce Tuesday, Sep 11, 12 @ 2:34 pm
Decertification is the only logical end to this without a major concession on Principal’s ability to hire or fire. For the teachers in my family this has always been their biggest fear. They will not cave and you cannot have ‘reform’ without it.

Comment by jeff in gold Tuesday, Sep 11, 12 @ 2:35 pm
Pretty (deleted) bad. Probably all the other Families will line up against us. That’s all right. These things gotta happen every five years or so, ten years. Helps to get rid of the bad blood. Been 25 years since the last one. You know, you gotta stop them at the beginning. Like they should have stopped Hitler at Munich, they should never let him get away with that, they was just asking for trouble.

Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Sep 11, 12 @ 2:42 pm
Pat Quinn swoops in and sits down at the bargaining table proclaiming “God put me here to solve this problem”. Angels sing, all is good…

Comment by NotRMiller Tuesday, Sep 11, 12 @ 2:45 pm
The CTU will be given a casino in Chicago and all proceeds will be divided between Rahm and the teachers. There will be special tech school established to teach the gaming arts and HVAC w/ guaranteed employment by the City and CPS.

Comment by D.P. Gumby Tuesday, Sep 11, 12 @ 2:49 pm
Badly… In the courts…

Don’t see Rahm giving too much on the evaluations thing, don’t see Lewis giving in on the evaluation thing either.

Comment by OneMan Tuesday, Sep 11, 12 @ 2:51 pm
Support for the teachers will go down significantly by the beginning of next week, Rahm will not cave, and Obama will be in a PR pickle. Then of course we may have Governor goofy who will sweep in and do/say something really bizarre.

I think it ends badly for everybody, but especially for the kids and the parents who are scrambling to find a place for their kids during the day while they are at work.

Comment by Cassiopeia Tuesday, Sep 11, 12 @ 2:52 pm
Thursday or Monday.

Comment by Fed up Tuesday, Sep 11, 12 @ 2:57 pm
Well.

Comment by redrum Tuesday, Sep 11, 12 @ 2:58 pm
Unions will prevail unfortunately. I would bet Obama will get some of the credit for the resolution when it is announced.

Comment by Grandpa Tuesday, Sep 11, 12 @ 3:00 pm
Lewis is going to cave - CPS will tone down the merit/performance stuff a bit and buy some more air conditioners and CTU will declare victory.

Comment by lake county democrat Tuesday, Sep 11, 12 @ 3:01 pm
Neither side can afford to stay out to long. Rahm has badly misplayed this. It goes back to him being a bully he thinks he can force his will on others just by being the loudest meanest in the room. I’m no fan of Karen Lewis but she is the right person to stand up to Rahm. Hopefully this is rahms Waterloo not the teachers unions.

Comment by Fed up Tuesday, Sep 11, 12 @ 3:02 pm
Well, I certainly agree about Governor goofy but it doesn’t help either that Vitale keeps chirping that a settlement is imminent even after being proven wrong more than once. What’s the point of that? All he has to say is some version of we’re working hard. He doesn’t have to fib. Is Vitale up to this job?

I say, middle of next week maybe even Monday. After Monday, the union starts losing goodwill fast. And since the issues are teacher recall and evaluation, they can always agree to more discussions and committees, sort of like Congress and the budget deficit.

Comment by cassandra Tuesday, Sep 11, 12 @ 3:03 pm
Karen Lewis does not strike me as the type of person who compromises that easily. She reminds me of Henry Bayer in that respect. We will see if there is any pushback from her CORE membership to get back to the classroom.
I would set the over/under on 11 days of school missed before a compromise is met.

Comment by Jake From Elwood Tuesday, Sep 11, 12 @ 3:06 pm
If it’s not decided by the end of the week, it could drag out ’til the end of September.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Sep 11, 12 @ 3:07 pm
Hopefully all will be resolved and 6they will be back in about a week. I think the teachers would be satisfied with a timetable for some of their demands like the air conditioning. What some don’t realize is that the state has brought some of this about by some of their mandates. It used to be that distrixcts had the decretion of shorrtewning school days during extreme heat. But the new mandates that each child has to serve a set amount of seat time in a class room per day has taken that away.

One of the biggest sticking points is going to be the evaluation of a teacher based on standardized tests. As an ex-school board member of 16 years I am familiar with the problems standardized test can be. These are not tests that are the same each year nor are they from the same source. The tests come from the lowest bidder for that particular year. Sometimes the tests are good tests, sometimes not so much. They also do not take into account the special needs kids in a class or any other factor that might cause a student to not perform to their best. It is the same test given to every kid in the school no matter what their abilitites. You also have schools where the mobility rate is high I think one of the teachers mentioned that her school had a mobility rate of 75%. That means that 75 out every 100 kids in that school will leave that school and go someplace else in that year, and 75 new ones might take their place. That will have an affect on your test scores. Larger class sizes will also affect test scores. So you have all of these outside influences affecting how a kid performs on one day out of the school year and then your teacher is evaluated on that result. I don’t know of any of us that would like to base their evaluation and whether or not we keep our job on one day out of the whole year.
So you end up evaluating the teacher based on a test that might or might not be a good test.

Comment by Irish Tuesday, Sep 11, 12 @ 3:12 pm
Like Reservoir Dogs?

Comment by Ace Laredo Tuesday, Sep 11, 12 @ 3:20 pm
I think Emanuel wants a long strike, so we’ll have a long strike.

I think the aldermen are going to be in a difficult spot which is sorta the way democracy is supposed to work.

I suppose Obama will be in a tough spot if he gets dragged into it. But as far as I know, no one put a gun to Obama’s head and made him appoint Rahm Emanuel as CoS.

Comment by Carl Nyberg Tuesday, Sep 11, 12 @ 3:21 pm
There will be increased “leaks” in the media–horror stories about specific terrible teachers who could not be fired and were either kept in the same school for years or were “transferred” from location to location to get rid of the problem with the “help” of the CTU. Good teachers (and there are many) will understand they need to strive to separate themselves from these examples and Lewis’ poor image. The solidarity will begin to crumble at about the same time the public and parents start to get a better handle on what the CTU is “protecting” and people get very tired of their rush hours being delayed by protesters and having to make arrangements for care for their out of the classroom kids.

There will be some sort of face saving compromise in a couple weeks, but long term Rahm and future taxpayers and more kids in charter schools will be the winners out of this debacle.

Comment by Responsa Tuesday, Sep 11, 12 @ 3:21 pm
It will take a month or so. Emanuel will give in. Parents with any ability to get a better schooling option will start shopping around: charter schools, Catholic schools, off to the suburbs. Real estate values fall in the city, rise in the suburbs. City taxes have to go up to offset the falling assessed values and to pay for the new contract. Taxpayers are screwed, children are screwed, all the progress in the schools will be undone.

Comment by Lakeview Tuesday, Sep 11, 12 @ 3:36 pm
Not with a bang but a whimper.

Comment by Cheryl44 Tuesday, Sep 11, 12 @ 3:41 pm
Ugly. The repercussions will last a decade.

Comment by Louis G. Atsaves Tuesday, Sep 11, 12 @ 3:48 pm
A surprise mysterious ending with the city winning big, Karen Lewis resigns as CTU president for “letting down” her membership and in six months is appointed to a cushy city or county job. This is Chicago after all

Comment by Hank Tuesday, Sep 11, 12 @ 3:53 pm
Teachers ain’t Mineworkers , so as pressure builds they will weaken and be swayed by peanut cash and concede on critical other issues which will ultimately lead to an even more wet noodle Union. Labor in general lacks unity and guts now days, so District wins in more ways than one.

Comment by x ace Tuesday, Sep 11, 12 @ 3:59 pm
Rahm can’t give in because this would set a precedent for his negotiations with the police and firefighters and more importantly he would lose face with his “Morning Joe” crowd DC/NYC neoliberal media base who vote Democrat but send their kids to private schools because of those darn teachers unions.

Karen Lewis can’t give in because taking this fight to Rahm and CPS is exactly what she was elected to do.

I think this one drags on for two weeks, then goes to the courts and gets stopped at least temporarily before the November election, regardless of whether the letter of the law is on the side of CPS in stopping the strike.

Comment by hisgirlfriday Tuesday, Sep 11, 12 @ 4:02 pm
My feeling is that it will be settled by the end of this week. The teachers will feel the heat when they miss their first paycheck. The proposed compensation package seems pretty close so I think the other issues will not be enough to keep them out.

Comment by Stones Tuesday, Sep 11, 12 @ 4:29 pm
It could be ugly. Any solution is likely to be a Pyrrhic victory. When the strike ends and the new schedule is announced, having air conditioners in the schools will not be a moot point; classes will be in session until July 4th.

Few of the city’s more prosperous families have children in the public schools (except for those who used clout to place their kids in the country club schools within the system). The CPS largely serves the poorest students. Some us forget that some teachers serve in schools where metal detectors and police security details are needed everyday of the academic year. How they can teach in such hostile environments is beyond me.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Sep 11, 12 @ 4:54 pm
Quinn will promise that the State will contribute to Chicago teacher benefits, or that other school systems will take on some/all of their pension responsibilities.

Comment by KeepSmiling Tuesday, Sep 11, 12 @ 4:58 pm
If its not over by next Monday, there’s no end in sight.

Every day it drags on is worse for the Mayor. The CTU knows this, and that’s why they are striking.

At the end of the day, either the City or the CTU will run out of money first. Its absurd to me that the city is willing to spend $25 million trying to break the strike so they don’t have to spend money on air conditioning, or whatever else.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Tuesday, Sep 11, 12 @ 7:07 pm
How do you think the Chicago school strike will end?

Fire and Ice

Some say the world will end in fire,
Some say in ice.
From what I’ve tasted of desire
I hold with those who favor fire.
But if it had to perish twice,
I think I know enough of hate
To say that for destruction ice
Is also great
And would suffice.

– Robert Frost

Comment by MrJM Tuesday, Sep 11, 12 @ 8:00 pm
If the ctu is smart they would ban Karen Lewis from speaking to the media. Some of the things she says are really not bright. I am writing this after just reading updated tribune article where she is quoted as saying the negotiations are the “silly part” of her day and hoping negotiations”wouldn’t go too late” tonight. Lady, the public will turn on you in a heart beat, you have them now, don’t lose them.

Comment by dang Tuesday, Sep 11, 12 @ 8:40 pm
I think Rahm will eventually negotiate and then take credit for settling the strike. Then when the state employees strike over wages and Quinn is wetting his pants, Rahm will offer to again negotiate a settlement, paving his way to Governorship.

Comment by Jack Tuesday, Sep 11, 12 @ 9:44 pm
My spouse was a teacher for 33 years in a public rural school system; I wouldn’t have allowed her to teach in Chicago unless she had been allowed to carry a bullwhip and a gun. Don’t know how it will end, and really don’t care, it’s Chicago, after all…

Comment by downstate commissioner Tuesday, Sep 11, 12 @ 11:32 pm
No, not the football movie, Rahm will hire teacher replacements by next week. From a Dec 2011 Trib story-
As job prospects across the state and nation remain bleak for new and laid-off teachers — more than 8,800 Illinois teachers received pink slips in 2010, according to officials.
Rahm will hire all college seniors who want to be paid an avg of 76,000 for 9 months of work a year and finish their degress on-line and charter school the rest.

Comment by the Replacements Tuesday, Sep 11, 12 @ 11:56 pm
“- Skeeter - Tuesday, Sep 11, 12 @ 2:21 pm:

Two weeks, and then the City will cave. They will pay more money, they will not have an effective way to get rid of bad teachers, and we will continue to wonder why we have miserable schools.

It always happens. They are negotiating with money that is not their own. They will feel heat and give in.

Those of us lucky to afford to do so will pay taxes to support bad teachers and will pay tuition to support good teachers.”
+1

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Sep 12, 12 @ 7:56 am
“How do you think the Chicago school strike will end?”

Badly.

Comment by Sideliner Wednesday, Sep 12, 12 @ 8:59 am