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Walsh vs. Duckworth race more competitive than most predicted

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* I agree that the Joe Walsh vs. Tammy Duckworth race is closer than pretty much anybody thought it would be. And the $810,000 just put into the race by a Super PAC for Walsh ain’t gonna be a bad thing for him.

But just to be clear, I’m told Walsh is trailing by five points in the We Ask America poll. The article below kinda makes it seem like he’s ahead.

Anyway, check it out…

The survey reportedly was taken in late August by the Tarrance Group, an Alexandria, Va.-based firm that usually works for Republicans. According to a source who has seen it, it shows Ms. Duckworth up just 47 percent to 45 percent.

Tarrance hasn’t called me back, and I’d sure like to have more details.

But the Tarrance survey is not inconsistent with a We Ask America survey — the group is closely affiliated with the Illinois Manufacturers’ Association — that showed a five-point Walsh margin, I’m told.

Team Duckworth isn’t releasing its numbers. A source there tells me that she’s up more than five points and that Mr. Walsh has yet to crack the 40 percent mark — a critical shortfall, if true. But that source also terms the race “competitive” and says it’s “not going to be a blowout.”

Discuss.

posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Sep 21, 12 @ 11:33 am

Comments

If Walsh wins, it could be as big an embarrassment to Illinois as Blago being elected twice.

Comment by levivotedforjudy Friday, Sep 21, 12 @ 11:43 am
Tammy Duckworth still has to be the prohibitive favorite, but, outside inner councils of the Democratic Party, she is not that popular with regular Illinois voters. It would help if she would decide upon a place of residence and stay in the same place for a few election cycles. The biggest knock that I have ever heard about her relates to her carpetbagging. This is the second time that she has moved in two Congressional races. Duckworth’s primary win over Ceglis was not overly impressive considering the resources placed at her disposal.

Truthfully, with the new election map, this one ought not even be close.

Comment by Esquire Friday, Sep 21, 12 @ 11:49 am
Given Walsh’s personal issues, style and the current trends in the state and nationwide, Duckworth should win. These numbers don’t seem to show a lot of enthusiasm for her though. Wouldn’t be surprised if there isn’t some “Duckworth fatigue” out there. Still think she will win, though.

Comment by Ron Burgundy Friday, Sep 21, 12 @ 11:51 am
I agree that it would be similar to the Blago situation if he is re-elected. It may be a toss up as to whether Blago or Walsh is stranger.
As a Dem, I never voted for Blago so I am stunned that a GOP-voter could rationalize voting for Walsh.

Comment by Belle Friday, Sep 21, 12 @ 11:59 am
Tammy Duckworth is endanger of becoming the democratic version of Jim Oberweiss

Comment by Lefty Friday, Sep 21, 12 @ 12:02 pm
I don’t live in the district but I from my view,I just don’t see Duckworth as being all that strong of a candidate. In this instance, I think Raja Krishnamoorthi might have been the better candidate to take on Joe Walsh.
Walsh is a total embarrassment!

Comment by Anonymous Friday, Sep 21, 12 @ 12:11 pm
Can someone explain to me how Blago got re-elected with like 35 percent approval ratings? That has to be the most unprecedented thing in the history of politics. I was in Missouri at the time and I’m guessing the GOP was still very weak from the abject disaster that was the George Ryan administration.

Comment by Mowatcher Friday, Sep 21, 12 @ 12:12 pm
RB - “These numbers don’t seem to show a lot of enthusiasm for her though. ”

You don’t live in the 8th do you?

At the Schaumburg parade she had maybe two dozen supporters and chose not to attend. She was in Charlotte instead. Joe had 200 volunteers and the crowd was very friendly.

The carpetbagger comment hits the nail on the head. She might own two homes in IL, but her private plane is parked in VA (http://www.city-data.com/aircraft/air-Arlington-Virginia.html).

I don’t think she identifies with the middle class families here in the district.

Comment by Allen Skillicorn Friday, Sep 21, 12 @ 12:15 pm
duckworth will probably win, but for someone that’s been groomed for this for 6 years she’s been horribly unimpressive.

at the bottom of the page is the hour long session she did with the tribune. You tell me if she’s worth the hype she’s been getting.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/localelections/#&lid=Elections&lpos=Sub

Comment by Shore Friday, Sep 21, 12 @ 12:16 pm
Hey, Allen, how are those moving plans coming along?

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Sep 21, 12 @ 12:19 pm
Another note, there is no circumstance where I see Walsh winning this race. How he won in 2010 is an absolutely mystery to me.

Comment by Mowatcher Friday, Sep 21, 12 @ 12:20 pm
===How he won in 2010 is an absolutely mystery to me.===

Well, then you weren’t paying attention.

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Sep 21, 12 @ 12:24 pm
Walsh is flat out one of the best campaigners I have ever seen. His town hall meetings, coffees, door-to-door, hand shaking abilities are outstanding.

Some politicians can connect with voters in such a fashion, others cannot. Dold also connects, but not in the typical boisterous Walsh manner.

After severely gerrymandering the district for Tammy, Democrats should be getting extremely nervous.

Comment by Louis G. Atsaves Friday, Sep 21, 12 @ 12:36 pm
==You tell me if she’s worth the hype she’s been getting.==

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/localelections/#&lid=Elections&lpos=Sub ==

I watched this with interest and I didn’t think Duckworth was bad - yes, she stuck to her talking points and played it safe, but she didn’t come across to me as incompetent.

I strongly dislike deadbeat dad Walsh. His personal style and occasional offensive statements rub me the wrong way. But here, after a rambling answer to Q1, Walsh was very impressive in my view. He offered several specifics on how he disagreed with republican leadership and sounded quite knowledgeable, reasonable, willing to compromise and take on closing the bigger tax loopholes that benefit higher income earners while tackling entitlements - even advocating “means testing,” something I hear more from democrats.

Comment by Robert the Bruce Friday, Sep 21, 12 @ 12:40 pm
I saw one of Walsh’s commercials last might and it was pretty lame.

On the other hand, I’m admire Duckworth, but feel like she’s not ready for primetime. Her speech at DNC was in a word, MEH, and she looked extremely nervous.

The constituents may be the ultimate losers in this race.

Comment by Loop Lady Friday, Sep 21, 12 @ 12:44 pm
is the DCCC essentially running Tammy’s campaign? Does she have any local people involved in the higher echelon of her campaign?

Comment by Ravenswood Right Winger Friday, Sep 21, 12 @ 12:52 pm
All particulars aside, so long as Pat Quinn is on tv/headlines saying things I highly doubt any arguably swing districts will have D blowouts.

Comment by Will Caskey Friday, Sep 21, 12 @ 12:59 pm
Months ago I first saw Walsh at a South Elgin Town Hall. There were three or four Occupy Sympathizers there. Walsh handled them perfectly. First Walsh shut down his own supporters who started to heckle. Next he responded to the hostile questions (after first letting them be voiced) saying here’s where we agree, here’s where we don’t. Then Walsh ends with I know you want vote for me, but we’ll just agree to not agree.

I followed the Occupy folks out afterwords and talked about what had just happened and the said sure they wouldn’t be voting for him, but they were impressed and liked the guy.

Way too many folks dismiss Walsh as crazy, but you watch him in action in these Town Halls and it’s very impressive. I’ve never seen a Politican as effective as Walsh is with people not inclined towards him.

He’s also working the Asian vote heavily, and that’s gone totally unreported safe for a piece by Kerry Lester in the DH I think. I’m betting the non-Muslim Asians in the 8th give Walsh his victory there. Maybe the Shia vote too. I have a feeling Democrats totally at a loss on the complexities of the Asian community and just view them as donors, and a constituency that will automatically vote Democratic.

Comment by Bill Baar Friday, Sep 21, 12 @ 1:22 pm
I don’t know how it is up north, but in southern and central Illinois, many voter, volunteer and interest groups don’t “take kindly” to outside influences who are brought in to run a campaign or grassroots effort. Perhaps the way that voters in the new 8th CD view Ms. Duckworth is in a similar manner: people have been brought in to help run her campaign and that may cause voters so sour on her message and candidacy. Perhaps I am wrong. But she used Axelrod as a mouthpiece in the primary and is likely utilizing a largesse of D.C. advisors/operatives who don’t have a connection to the area.

Don’t forget, too: Joe Walsh may be loud and abrasive, but that can also translate into people taking notice and wanting to learn more. Not every “inflammatory” statement he makes irks voters to the point of disenchantment.

Comment by Team Sleep Friday, Sep 21, 12 @ 1:23 pm
I hate Walsh, but I at least respect his campaigning effort. As I said a day or two here in another comment on this site, he works his butt off on the campaign trail, so there’s zero doubt in my mind that he’s going to keep eating into Duckworth’s lead, even though I still consider her a prohibitive favorite still to win.

Comment by TJ Friday, Sep 21, 12 @ 1:29 pm
Never seen so many posts “confident” of a win for a candidate stated so nervously.

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Friday, Sep 21, 12 @ 1:39 pm
If you’re referring to walsh as a deadbeat dad you probably didn’t think much of him in the first place. There are hard edges to him, he takes a shot at randy hultgren that I am sure won’t be forgotten, but you watch duckworth and it reminds me a lot of debbie halvorson’s tribune ed board with jackson where she sits there mostly observing and then fumbling and mumbling through consultant written talking points while the opponent speaks confidently in specifics. I’m not on team walsh, and there’s a lot I don’t like about him, but when you’ve been hyped for 7 years, run this race before, it’s just a really bad performance.

To answer your question about duckworth staff, my understanding of the blog is that the protocol is to not go after the staff by name.

Comment by Shore Friday, Sep 21, 12 @ 1:40 pm
That race won’t be close. Rep. Walsh will easily win. All of those voters have a republican congressman, Walsh, Dold, Hultgren, or Roskam. The majority of those voters have a republican state senator, Murphy, Pancau, or Dillard.

Comment by Conservative Veteran Friday, Sep 21, 12 @ 1:43 pm
Not a huge Walsh fan, but all things considered I am surprised it is this close. She should have put this away by now and the fact she hasn’t kind of shows me that Walsh has a real chance (better than I would have thought 2 months ago)..

Like him or not (again, not the top of my GOP list) the dude has true believers and never underestimate the value of true believers.

Comment by OneMan Friday, Sep 21, 12 @ 1:44 pm
Walsh is on the air with warm puppy spots. They’re very good. I get warm and fuzzy just thinking about them.

At some point soon, you’d think Duckworth will unload with negative spots. There’s a lot of material there, supplied by Rep. Walsh himself.

I can’t imagine there will be a lack of Dem money on this one. It should be a gimme.

Comment by wordslinger Friday, Sep 21, 12 @ 2:04 pm
Walsh and Class of 2010 Congressman may be the worst group ever elected. They did not a damn thing to move this country foward. And he was the worst of a bad lot. Good riddance.

Let’s hope the next Congress can learn to get along and get his country moving.It’s time to ship
out the clowns.

Comment by mokenavince Friday, Sep 21, 12 @ 2:38 pm
Two other candidates who share Walsh’s district boundaries are leading in the polls, Pankau and Kordik. Also, Saviano. Furthermore, Walsh is being helped by Reboletti’s strength in the area This district also includes areas friendly to Roskam. The remap, and the selection of Cullerton’s nephew might be blowing up in the Democrats’ faces.

Comment by Cincinnatus Friday, Sep 21, 12 @ 3:00 pm
Word, no kidding. I’m surprised they haven’t started running some bombs against him already. It’s easy pickings. The only thing I would guess is that either a) the DCCC and some side groups are not as enthusiastic after that recent, massive pro-Walsh buy or, more likely, b) the DCCC and Duckworth camps are going to blow Walsh out of the water with negative ads starting October 23rd.

Comment by Team Sleep Friday, Sep 21, 12 @ 3:05 pm
How did Rod Blagojevich win in 2006? Well, all of the money that he amassed from selling off Illinois government one piece at a time funded one of the most expensive gubernatorial campaigns in Illinois history with tons of negative advertising. JBT could not keep pace with Blago’s television ads.

All of the connected unions backed Blago, warts and all, as did most of the Regular Democrats, who disowned him a year or so later.

Tammy Duckworth was recruited as a candidate by Durbin and Emanuel. She narrowly pushed aside a Du Page County Democrat (Cegelis), who some voters liked in the primary. Duckworth’s Illinois roots aren’t that deep. Like the President, she is a native of Hawaii. I am not sure how well Duckworth plays before district audiences. She relies heavily upon talking points.

Joe Walsh has considerable political baggage, too long to list here, but to give the devil his due, he comes home every weekend and accepts almost any speaking engagement invitation that he receives. He is constantly rallying his Tea Party base and never misses an opportunity to shake hands and meet and greet voters.

By all rights, Melissa Bean should have buried Walsh in 2010, but she ran an incredibly lackluster campaign for an incumbent (not unlike Phil Crane’s last campaign in which Bean took him out).

Comment by Esquire Friday, Sep 21, 12 @ 3:31 pm
I have heard Bean didn’t campaign hard against Walsh, but it seems like she was in a difficult position.

A Google search on Walsh revealed so many negatives it was hard to persuade anyone in politics that sending Bean money or ground troops was a good use of resources.

And Bean was one of the top Democrats in the U.S. House for carrying the water of the financial services industry.

So, progressives who were critical of banks weren’t inclined to lift a finger to help Bean.

I find it hard to believe that Walsh has enough goodwill to get over 50%. But that’s why people pay pollsters.

But the media hypes certain races for its own reasons. And the campaigns both have an incentive to make it seem close.

I suspect when the votes are counted Duckworth prevails by a healthy margin, 8-15%.

Joe Walsh has gotten his chance. And he’s made the most of it. He’s almost assuredly got a sweet gig in talk radio or cable TV waiting for him. But what he’s done to help his constituents? He feeds them a bunch of excuses and people to blame. Walsh has used the power of the office to promote himself, but not so much to get stuff done.

Comment by Carl Nyberg Friday, Sep 21, 12 @ 3:52 pm
To reiterate Louis Atsaves point, Walsh is not only an relentless and tireless campaigner, he wins hearts and minds of his constituents. Love him or hate him, there’s much to be learned from his style of campaigning…

Comment by Javorica Friday, Sep 21, 12 @ 3:55 pm
Ms Duckworth is struggling in the 8th largely because she really does not have the instincts or skills or innate gregarious warmth of a natural politician and (no matter what you think of him)her opponent clearly does. All Tammy’s multi-year grooming and party positioning, her obvious intelligence, and an admirable life story can not overshadow the fact that for someone running for national office she really isn’t very personally engaging or much of a politician. She does not seem to be very invested in or managing her own campaign which makes some wonder if she would even have run at all had she known it wasn’t going to be the slam dunk she was promised by re-map makers. This seems to be a fair question because in fact, much in her demeanor and campaign decision making suggests that she probably does not enjoy the down and dirty hurly burly of the political process, or get a kick out of meeting and mixing it up with constituents and other pols.

She may win, but if she does I predict it will be very very close. If Tammy does not win I hope she will tell her party to please hang up their lofty political ambitions for her. There are plenty of ways for her to serve and influence policy and make a difference in society without being a congressperson.

Comment by Responsa Friday, Sep 21, 12 @ 4:01 pm
Responsa - that’s a good point. If Ms. Duckworth wins, she will most assuredly be propped up as a possible Senate candidate in 2014 (assuming Senator Durbin retires) or 2016. She needs to tell party leaders to tap the breaks. She would be great at working with the other side of the aisle on veterans and defense issues.

Comment by Team Sleep Friday, Sep 21, 12 @ 4:48 pm