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* Your election day predictions.
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 1:33 pm
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Saviano wins the White House.
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 1:39 pm
Dems. keep control of the Ill. House and Senate. Romney wins the Presidential Election.
Foster wins.
Dold wins.
Duckworth wins.
Enyart wins.
Comment by MOON Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 1:41 pm
POTUS re-elected with at least 300 EVs.
Comment by Reality Check Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 1:42 pm
Google subscribes.
Comment by Dirty Red Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 1:46 pm
Pres. Obama wins 290-300 EV’s and Illinois with a Double Quinn (about six counties).
IL House and Senate remain with the Dems. Many more suburbanites wake up to find themselves represented by city residents.
Most of the GOP incumbent congressional folks near Chicago hold on to their seats. Not so fast Joe Walsh.
Downstate, Davis and Enyart win.
Jesse Jr. wins in the mid-60’s but will not complete the term.
Comment by Ron Burgundy Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 1:46 pm
More of the same.
Comment by DuPage Moderate Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 1:47 pm
All Ads will end!
Comment by Spliff Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 1:47 pm
Obama wins.
Foster, Duckworth, Enyart, Schilling and Davis win.
Senate:
All downstate Dems incumbents win. Including Jacobs.
Kotowski, Pankau, J. Morrison, Stadelman, Manar, Peck win.
House: Derrick Smith, Kordik over Conroy, Willis over Saviano, McSweeney over Beaubein but it’s really close, Moylan over Sweeney, Mussman by double digits, Nekritz, Drury big, Sente, Vershoore, Nixon, Kifowit, Sherer.
As you’ll notice. That’s a lot of Dems.
Comment by LilLebowskiUrbanAchiever Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 1:47 pm
I predict it’ll be Tuesday, November 6. Count on it.
Comment by 47th Ward Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 1:48 pm
Biggert wins (but it is real close).
Dold wins.
Duckworth wins but it is much closer than expected.
Enyart wins.
Comment by OneMan Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 1:49 pm
Biggert
Dold
Duckwort
Enyert
Davis
Schilling
Romney hits 300+
Comment by One of Three Puppets Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 1:51 pm
Instead of an election Pinky & the Brain will take over the WORLD!!! LOL
Comment by Levois Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 1:53 pm
White House and Congress go Republican
IL Senate and House stay Dem, but Repubs pick up one to two seats (net) in both chambers
Saviano wins reelection; so does Derrek Smith
(Speaker’s two big loses of the night)
Comment by unclesam Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 1:56 pm
Tom Cross shoots +12 over par.
Saviano, Dold, Biggert, Davis win.
Duckworth and Enyart win.
Comment by Ravenswood Right Winger Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 2:00 pm
Rahmbo wins! Obama wins sidelining his current biggest threat Hillary, as she continues in the Obama administration. Obama loses, she wears part of the blame due to her SOS missteps. Logical choice to take on Romney in general election as he becomes gridlocked due to his attempting to run the govt like a business.
Duckworth, Dold, Biggert, and Bustos are victorious.
Saviano loses as voters blame his connection to Gutierrez.
Comment by friend of a friend Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 2:00 pm
Same as when this was asked 2 months ago:
Romney - 53%
Obama - 47%
Electoral College - 303
Comment by Cincinnatus Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 2:01 pm
Obama 300+ EV
Duckworth wins
Enyart wins
Davis wins
Dems hold Senate, gain 6-8 House
Is it even a prediction to say the IL H/S stays Dem? Is anyone saying otherwise?
Comment by Colossus Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 2:01 pm
Duckworth over Walsh
Biggert over Foster
And for me, probably a pizza, followed by disillusionment.
Comment by MKA1985 Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 2:05 pm
President:
Romney with between 270-280 EVs
Congress (IL):
8. Duckworth
10. Dold
11. Biggert
12. Enyart
13. Davis
17. Schilling
Comment by Whatever Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 2:12 pm
Obama wins 281-257
Dold (it hurts to type that), Duckworth, Foster, Schilling, Davis and Enyart win.
Sente over Mathias, Nekritz over Greenberg, Noland, Oberweis, Morrison, Drury win.
Derrick Smith wins big over Lance Tyson.
And I predict retirement surprises from some Congresscritters.
Comment by Rahm's Parking Meter Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 2:13 pm
===Tom Cross shoots +12 over par.===
Beat me to it!
I will have cannoli and a cappuccino at some point during the day …
Saviano wins
Derrick Smith wins at a 60% clip
ILHouse - 2 from Veto-Proof for Dems
ILSenate - Veto-Proof for Dems
Dold, Duckworth, Biggert, and Davis win.
Enyart wins, and it will be so close that Plummer will take it to court.
When Rich askes this questions the night before, as he has, I recall, I will be a bit more specific on ILHouse and ILSenate.
Feds:
House stays Repubs, Senate stays Dem, but with 51 with the (I)s that Caucus with them.
POTUS …
Romney will win the Popular vote …Have not one clue on who wins the Electoral …Not even close to figuring that out right now.
Big Losers will be Radogno, losing her leadership of the SGOP, and Cross who will be threatened for Leadership, but will retain his status but will have many detractors for the entire GA Session.
Did I say I was going to have Cannoli?
***Final stretch “Volunteers”, I send my best to all 4 Caucus “Volunteers”, you all are doing Yeomen’s work. I salute every one of you, get your rest when you can.
Oswego Willy
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 2:17 pm
Romney will get about 310 electoral votes. In the U.S. Senate, Republicans will gain four seats. In the U.S. House, Democrats will gain 10 seats. In Illinois, all U.S. reps., who run for re-election, will win. Plummer and Davis will also win.
Comment by Conservative Veteran Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 2:24 pm
Obama in the neighborhood of 300 EVs, 51.5% PV
Dold, Duckworth, Foster, Schilling, Enyart, Davis
House stays GOP, Dems gain two seats in the Senate and remain in control.
IL Senate: 37-39 D’s, regain super majority.
IL House: 68-70 Ds , closing in on the super majority.
Comment by Mittuns Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 2:28 pm
Taxpayers will get bamboozled, again.
Comment by As Usual Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 2:36 pm
On Wednesday morning I will be disappointed that the Democrats have even more power and control in a State that they have been controlling and mismanaging for the past decade, and it won’t because they had better candidates. It will instead be because they used sophisticated computer software to gerrymander the election map, were financed incredibly well, as well as the fact they successfully distracted the voters from the real issues that face the State. (ie: social security in a legislative race)
Nonetheless, Oswego Willy will say it is “all Tom Cross’ fault.”
Comment by Just Me Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 2:37 pm
IL Review keeps describing Schaumburg Twp as Republican territory, but they’re living in the past. I predict Dems will sweep the Twp: Obama , Duckwprth, Kotowski, Noland, Mussman, Crespo plus all countywide Dems will win.
.
Comment by reformer Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 2:38 pm
47th, I got a call that told me that voters with N to Z last names vote on Wednesday.
I predict it’ll be Tuesday, November 6. Count on it.
Comment by Robo Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 2:42 pm
For POTUS. Nobody wins 11/6. Florida 2000 like scenario in about 5 states simultaneously.
Things get even more divided and divisive. Victory will be determined by who has the best lawyers and the SCOTUS.
No matter how bad things are, they can always get worse.
Comment by bongofurry Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 2:42 pm
Madigan wins!
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 2:44 pm
269-269 electoral college tie, nation plunges into Constitutional crisis. Thin I’m crazy? Look at the state level polls, then this map, and tell me I’m crazy.
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bczo&referring_service=google#.UJLSsDOmBCx.google
Comment by Empty Chair Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 2:51 pm
Obama wins popular vote and EC, holding all states with the exception of Indiana (and the NE-2 vote)
Dems run the table in US Congress races in IL, but fall short of retaking the House. Dems make gains in the Senate however.
IL House and Senate Dems see some losses, but maintain control of both chambers.
Comment by Ben S. Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 2:52 pm
POTUS wins
Duckworth wins
Enyart wins (please let us be rid of Plummer jg)
Saviano wins
Comment by mongo Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 2:56 pm
Obama wins in a nailbiter..perhaps months to be declared official winner..Duckworth wins, Shilling wins, Dold wins, Enyart wins, Davis wins, Biggert wins, Jackson wins
Comment by abNormal Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 2:59 pm
Just ran across this story. We won’t know the result of POTUS for days…
http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/ohio-provisional-ballots-delay/2012/11/01/id/462413
Comment by Cincinnatus Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 3:05 pm
Obama in 270’s, with at least one state recount
Dold, Biggert, Duckworth, Enyart
Agree with LilLebowski on all state GA races except that Sid squeeks by Sente.
Cross is seriously challenged. Radogno sticks.
Comment by walkinfool Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 3:13 pm
Madigan once again schools Cross. Cross was too lazy to even slate candidates in 41 of 118 House races, and he left many hanging out to dry while he blew hundreds of thousand of dollars on few candidates.
Ya can’t win if ya don’t play, Tom.
I’m looking at a 68-50 Dem contol of the state house after 11/6, and GOP House members will become even more irrelevant.
There will be no consequences to Cross after this monumental failure because there’s no one who’s got a pair in the house more capable of stepping up to a leadership roll.
GOP Chair Pat Brady will be out there whining about Dem voter fraud and how the world is unfair instead of manning up and admitting how the state GOP blew this opportunity like they did with the Governor’s race in 2010, and saying what they did wrong and they’ll do better the next time.
In short, I predict Illinois GOP PAIN…while Romney wins and the Dems take over the Illinois Congressional delegation, but don’t take control of the House.
Comment by Palos Park Bob Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 3:14 pm
President–
Obama wins Illinois of course but by far less than in 2008.
Romney wins national popular vote and I think EC too, but barely. EC could be a mess as others have suggested.
U.S. Congress– Republicans hold.
IL congressional races–
8. Duckworth (but the Walsh-Bean outcome was the only one of the suburban congressional races I blew last time. It might happen again)
10. Dold
11. Biggert
12. Enyart
13. Davis
17. Schilling
U.S. Senate– Dems hold
In shock to many, Scott Brown retains his seat in MA over Elizabeth Warren.
Comment by Responsa Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 3:18 pm
Obama wins big.
Comment by Cheryl44 Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 3:22 pm
Obama just under 300EV,Duckworth big,Enyart in a close one.Dems big in Senate, Gop just barely
in house. Norquist exiled to Haiti.And at least one Republican has enough courage not to sign his pledge.
And no more of these rotten adds.
Comment by mokenavince Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 3:29 pm
Obama wins with 281.
Duckworth
Dold
Foster
Bustos
Plummer
Davis
FED-Dems pick up 7 House seats and 1 Senate seat
STATE-Skip and Sid win. Dee loses. Dems pick up 3 House and 1 Senate seat.
Comment by Bill Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 3:31 pm
Obama wins 290 (I think he pulls off Colorado)
Duckworth
Dold
Foster
Bustos
Enyart
Davis
Comment by UISer Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 3:34 pm
The constitutional amendment on pensions is defeated.
Comment by Vote NO Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 3:40 pm
Abigeal Evans finally stops crying (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/31/abigael-evans-video-npr-apologizes-bronco-bamma-mitt-romney_n_2051097.html), and Crafty Girl finally stops getting calls from David Gill and Rodney Davis.
Comment by Crafty Girl Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 3:40 pm
President: Obama
Congress: Duckworth
Dold
Enyart
Davis
Bustos
Foster
House: Moylan, Drury, Mathias, Saviano, McSweeney
Senate: Kotowski, Manar, Morrison, Bush, Albracht, Pankau
Comment by Lakewood-Balmoral Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 3:44 pm
Dold, Duckworth, Davis
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 3:52 pm
Duckworth, Dold, Foster, Plummer, Davis, and Schilling win. Romney-Ryan wins with Wisconsin, but Democrats hold onto the Senate.
Illinois Republicans do all right except in Champaign and Cook Counties.
Comment by T.J. Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 3:55 pm
Obama 300 EV 50.5% PV
In the end, the son of a car maker born in Michigan gets hammered by major car makers’ CEOs in last 6 days. Key note speaker hugs opponent 6 days before election. Done.
House majority moves to 69 seats, Il Senate to 38 seats
Dold, Enyart Davis Bustos Foster
US House majority held by Republicans yet narrower margin.
US senate held by Democrats with 51, maybe 52 seats including the independents
Comment by nothin's easy Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 4:12 pm
Romney wins swing states of Nevada, Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida
Obama wins Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Colorado and New Hampshire
Romney wins E College 274-264
Comment by Lewis & Clark Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 4:13 pm
Obama by a nose.
Saw Walsh dining last night for 1 1/2 hours at NEAR in Barrington with 2 people. Not campaigning. Even he must know it’s over.
Comment by DE Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 4:15 pm
Colorado ends cannabis prohibition and Johnson gets his best turnout for POTUS there.
Comment by danlinn Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 4:16 pm
Empty Chair; I’m going to say, “crazy” because your map involves Obama losing Nevada. Basically, he’s not going to lose Nevada, and it’s as simple as that; the Dems are ripping the GOP a new one in early voting and it looks like another 2008 blowout there so far, and besides Democratically-inclined Hispanics in Nevada don’t seem to answer pollsters’ phone calls. I even think Shelley Berkley could pick off the NV-Senate seat for the Dems, despite her ethics inquiry and her persistent narrow deficit in the polls. She’s doing slightly better than Harry Reid at this point two years ago with Sharron Angle, and look at what happened then.
Overall prediction. Obama, with some possible surprising states, the big one being Florida. A big question for me, can Ohio run a non-bent election with its current hyper-partisan secretary of state, oversight from Bush-appointed federal appeals court judges, and Romney-affiliated voting machine contractors? I would not be surprised to see Obama do better in Florida than Ohio, simply because I feel Ohio Republicans are so aggressively trying to game the system.
Locally: Dold by at least five percent, Foster narrowly, toss a coin on Schilling-Bustos, Davis narrowly, Enyart comfortably, Duckworth very comfortably (boy has that race changed quickly). Dems hold the legislature, but it would be an interesting and possibly insightful exercise to add up the popular vote on the Lege — at least in those seats where the Republicans bothered to put up candidates.
Comment by Angry Chicagoan Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 4:18 pm
Swank takes the Nevada Assembly District 16 seat in a landslide. Go, Heidi!
Comment by Ivory-billed Woodpecker Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 4:44 pm
Obama wins Virginia, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Iowa, allowing for an early victory party for Democrats, who don’t need to wait it out for results from Colorado or Nevada.
Like everyone else, I’ll pick Duckworth, Dold, and Davis.
Biggert, Enyart, Bustos.
Comment by Robert the Bruce Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 4:46 pm
Bears 646 Electoral Votes.
Romney -Sandy votes.
DA BEARS
Comment by Irishpirate Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 4:57 pm
I will drink to celebrate or kill the pain.
Bank on it.
– MrJM
Comment by MrJM Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 5:15 pm
Obama
Dold
Duckworth
Foster
Democrats gain 5 seats in the House of Representatives.
Comment by Wensicia Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 5:18 pm
Obama
Dold Duckworth Foster
Not Lance Tyson Not Skip Saviano
Elizabeth Warren…. and the continued return of Lacey Davenport!!!
Comment by amalia Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 5:25 pm
Sandy blows away Obama.
Axe loses the cookie duster.
Dold, Duckworth, Foster, Davis, Schilling, and in a squeaker, The Oswego Willy Full Blogging Act of 2012, aka Congressman Jason Plummer.
Comment by Arthur Andersen Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 5:36 pm
Burgundy, a “Double Quinn” would be eight counties.
Comment by Precinct Captain Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 6:13 pm
Wednesday the political ad producers and advisors will spin the results. Thursday they will start looking for another job.
Comment by RNUG Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 6:49 pm
Oh yeah, the election prediction … we have to wait four days to find out who the next President is …
Comment by RNUG Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 6:51 pm
Obama wins Nevada, Wisconsin, Ohio, Colorado, New Hampshire, and Iowa. Romney wins Virginia, Florida, and North Carolina. Obama wins 290-248. Popular vote by 0.5-1.0%. (Last week I would have had Obama winning 277 EVs and losing the popular vote.)
CD 8 - Duckworth +12
CD 10 - Dold +5
CD 11 - Foster +2
CD 12 - Enyart +3
CD 13 - Davis +3
CD 17 - Bustos in the nail biter of the evening, wins by fewer than 1000 votes
Comment by nrebreg Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 7:40 pm
whoever wins, we’re all screwed.
Comment by ah HA Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 7:51 pm
Obama loses the popular vote, but wins the Electoral College
Dold, Duckworth, Biggert, Enyart, Schilling, Davis
Dems +3 in the IL House, +1 in the IL Senate
Comment by Anon Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 7:53 pm
Obama gets somewhere between 280 and 300 EV. Dold, Foster, Duckworth, Schilling in the closest race of the night, Davis and Enyart. Gill starts his 2014 campaign, and Plummer is sent back to the lumbar yard knowing he will never get big Bob’s love and approval.
Comment by Hail 4B Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 9:00 pm
“Sandy blows away Obama.”
To quote George Costanza, the opposite.
Comment by wishbone Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 9:32 pm
Obama wins by an ear.
Comment by ChicagoDem Thursday, Nov 1, 12 @ 10:56 pm
Obama is re-elected president of the United States of America.
Romney is elected president of the Confederate States of America (doesn’t really count, in most circles; see Lincoln, Grant, Sherman).
Obama: 294
Romney: 244
Cincy, I remain fascinated that you think Romney will get 53% of the popular vote, but only 303 in the electoral college. Dude, 53% puts any candidate in 350-plus range.
And where does the 53% come from, anyway?
Winners, winners, chicken dinners:
Schneider
Duckworth
Biggert
Davis
Bustos
Enyart
Meanwhile, regarding our crazy next-door neighbors: Akin loses, Mourdock wins.
Indiana replaces Lugar with Mourdock. Clearly, Darwin needs to work a little harder on that theory of his.
Comment by wordslinger Friday, Nov 2, 12 @ 8:36 am
The major news outlets (even Meet the Press) are shamed into reporting on the Benghazi fiasco and Romney rakes in 300+ electoral votes.
Comment by Holdingontomywallet Friday, Nov 2, 12 @ 8:37 am
…and all of the “R” keys are removed from the keyboards by employees in the Obama administration.
Comment by Holdingontomywallet Friday, Nov 2, 12 @ 8:49 am