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Poll: Lisa Madigan has biggest leads, Quinn in huge primary trouble

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* We successfully “freeped” Public Policy Polling’s website a couple weeks ago and convinced them to do an Illinois poll. I’m not sure how valuable the numbers are because it’s so very early in the gubernatorial process, but let’s get to it.

The poll was taken November 26-28 of 500 Illinois voters.

* Gov. Pat Quinn’s job approval rating continues to be super dismal…

Quinn disagrees with voters, however…

“I think I’m doing a good job under the circumstances and want to continue.”

* Except for Lisa Madigan, most people really don’t know much about the other candidates tested here…

* Quinn only does well against Aaron Schock, who is a Downstate congressman and not yet very well known statewide…

Keep in mind that Quinn was trailing Bill Brady for months before he finally won. Party love generally kicks in late.

* Same goes for Bill Daley…

* Lisa Madigan is a different story, but she’s not killing it like I thought she would…

Madigan is barely outperforming the generic party ID test…

I’ve been saying for a while that I didn’t think Attorney General Madigan would run for governor in 2014. But I had a long off the record talk with her on election night (she attended my Google party), and let’s just say I’m no longer 100 percent sure about anything. She probably won’t, but I can’t say that for sure right now.

* PPP also polled for the primaries, but the sample sizes were so small that they have to be taken with a grain of salt. Of just 303 GOP primary voters…

And…

* But check out the Democratic poll of 319 primary voters. Quinn is in a world of trouble…

If Lisa runs, she could crush Quinn. But we already knew that.

* Links…

* 2014 Governor Toplines

* 2014 Republican Primary Toplines

* 2014 Democratic Primary Toplines

* Crosstabs

posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 1:56 pm

Comments

Who are these 25% who approve of Pat Quinn’s job performance?

Comment by ArchPundit Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 2:00 pm
I hope the next time Lisa runs for anything, her support for wrongdoing by state operatives is exposed.

Comment by Crime Fighter Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 2:03 pm
I keep hearing Tom Dart’s name as the likely Quinn alternative.

Interesting that Schock is doing poorly in a very early poll.

I think we need a moratorium on any discussion of either Bill Daley or Danny Davis seeking any office until they are actually on a ballot. You see those two names so often, and they never run. They both remind of the relief pitcher who gets warmed up just to hear the announcer say “and it looks like [deleted] is up throwing in the bullpen.” Hearing your name is one thing. Getting called to the mound is another.

Comment by Skeeter Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 2:10 pm
Oh gosh, Skeeter — my dyslexia is kicking in. I thought you said “and it looks like (deleted) is throwing up in the bullpen.” I had never heard an announcer say that, so I was puzzled.

Comment by soccermom Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 2:15 pm
Surprising both Daley and Quinn beat Schock.

Again, it’s an early poll, but not sure where that comes from.

Comment by Formerly Known As... Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 2:20 pm
Up throwing?
Throwing up?

I also haven’t heard the second, but it probably would get a mention.

Comment by Skeeter Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 2:26 pm
Given the GOP’s smear of Speaker Madigan in the recent election I can understand the relatively weak showing by Lisa.

I do not think she will make the run for Governor. The Speaker is not ready to retire; he eats, drinks and sleeps politics and government.
Lisa as a candidate would require the Speaker to step aside.

As I have said before, given the poor condition of Illinois and the rest of the country, anybody seeking the Governors seat is crazy.

Look for Lisa to run for the State Supreme Cort if a seat opens.

Comment by MOON Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 2:27 pm
That should be “court”

Comment by MOON Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 2:28 pm
Skeeter if you keep hearing that you must be standing very close to the sheriff.

Comment by siriusly Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 2:33 pm
Who are the 8% of GOP voters who support Joe Walsh for Governor? If the GOP couldn’t win with Sen. Brady as the standard-bearer in 2010, which now looks like a high-water mark for the Illinois GOP, how could they possibly succeed with someone farther to the right? And that’s before you subtract multiple percentage points for Rep. Walsh’s, well, brash personality. Maybe that 8% likes the GOP’s position of having absolutely zero power in the General Assembly, it’s easier to engage in rhetorical bomb-throwing if you have no actual role in governing.

Comment by cover Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 2:35 pm
Oh gosh, Skeeter — my dyslexia is kicking in. I thought you said “and it looks like (deleted) is throwing up in the bullpen.”

That would be Kyle Farnsworth. He never quite figured out you couldn’t close down the Division Street bars when you had a 1:20 game that day.

The 30% GOP generic is pretty shocking. And there’s nothing in the GOP laundry list to scare anyone out of the race.

Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 2:35 pm
===Look for Lisa to run for the State Supreme Cort if a seat opens. ===

Not gonna happen.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 2:39 pm
I’d put my money on Lisa running. Father is working hard on addressing vexing issues that would face Lisa. He’s helped make the GOP a moot caucus. I expect his priorities for the next two years to focus on pension/health insurance reductions (no such thing as reform here), targeted budget cuts and revenue enhancements. This will make things easier - not easy - to govern when she’s elected.

Comment by Norseman Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 2:40 pm
ArchPundit - Who are these 25% who approve of Pat Quinn’s job performance? That would be all of the new State employees Quinn has given jobs to.

Comment by Sgtstu Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 2:42 pm
Bye Bye Quinnster!

Comment by Sinister Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 2:44 pm
I’m surprised by Dan Rutherford’s strong showing relative to other Republicans. Although I guess that’s the upshot to being anywhere and everywhere all the time.

Comment by Johnny Q. Suburban Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 2:46 pm
Pongee is raring to go!

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 2:46 pm
I don’t expect Walsh to run, but interesting that he’s polling so low.

I thought there was still a core of tea partiers that loved him. 8% among Republicans is pretty bad.

Comment by Skeeter Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 2:53 pm
Eh, just means there’s a lot of work to be done in the next 474 days.

Comment by Small Town Liberal Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 2:57 pm
How is Squeezey polling?

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 2:57 pm
If Speaker Madigan backs a primary challenge to a Democrat after having co-chaired Rod Blagojevich’s reelection campaign in 2006, he’ll have a lot of explaining to do.

Comment by Uptown Sinclair Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 2:58 pm
I don’t see how anyone would think Schock shouldn’t be pleased with these poll results. Both Kirk, Brady and Rutherford have ran statewide, yet in a primary Schock is leading 2 of the 3 and statistically tied with the other. Schock would have more money to make his case in the general and I have no doubt would receive the same level of support, if not more than a Dillard or a Brady. Rutherford should be encouraged by these results also.

Comment by downstateyp Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 2:58 pm
I got this call. They also asked the names in a Dirbin race as well as what your favorite football team was and if you have a favorable oppinion of Jay Cutler.

It also mispronounced Bill Daley the first time they mention his name.

Comment by Spliff Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 2:59 pm
Results only show what we all already knew. The Governor’s in trouble, Rutherford set himself up to be the moderate choice. Schock is way too young.

I wouldn’t bet against Lisa Madigan running, however if she doesn’t, who is on the list of people floating their names for a primary against a sitting Governor from their own party would surprise a lot of people.

Comment by Kyle Hillman Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 2:59 pm
Not being smart here, legit question. How did the We Ask America polls you commisioned do? I know they were off on Schilling Bustos, but what about others?

Comment by UISer Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 3:03 pm
There is no mention of the name “Mike Madigan” in this entire poll. Just noting that related to Lisa’s numbers.

Also, how can Bill Daley still stay in the race if he has a small lead over Quinn and no name ID. Defining him won’t be hard and will cut his lead tremendously.

Comment by Empty Chair Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 3:05 pm
===Also, how can Bill Daley still stay in the race if he has a small lead over Quinn and no name ID===

Um, huh? If he has no name ID and is still leading, that would be a reason to stay in the race.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 3:06 pm
I’m hearing Tom Dart’s name mentioned a lot, too. Chris Kennedy’s name has been floated along with Bill Daley. Quinn is toast.

Comment by NW Illinois Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 3:21 pm
Maybe my memory is bad, but Lisa’s favorables seem a little lower than we’ve seen in previous polls. So MOON might be on to something…maybe her father’s lack of popularity is rubbing off on her more than it did in the past.

Daley’s favorables are poor. Proof that it ain’t 1996 anymore. That name has lost its magic.

Comment by Frank Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 3:23 pm
Quinn’s poll numbers are bound to skyrocket when his new found kindred spirits from the Trib,IPI, and State Chamber step in to support him. -snark

Comment by Crime Fighter Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 3:28 pm
Name recognition appears to be the most critical factor in this early poll. “Not sure” is just another way of saying “huh?”.

Comment by Keyser Soze Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 3:32 pm
Chris Kennedy would have about as good a chance as Aunt Ethel. Actually, she might do better.
Heckuva job running that U of I Board, dude.
Hired/Fired any $600k East Coast doofuses this week?

Comment by Arthur Andersen Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 3:42 pm
The poll shows Gov. Quinn is potentially beatable in a primary but if Bill Daley only has a small lead on him then I’m guessing the number of people who are capable of besting Quinn in a primary is quite small and possibly no bigger than Lisa Madigan and maybe Bill Daley.

Comment by The Captain Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 3:45 pm
I’m still putting my money on Dillard - again he is the only Republican candidate that can govern when sworn in and more importantly is able to win over the much sought after Independents and the Democrat crossovers. Chicago folks just aren’t going to go for a downstater and the downstaters aren’t going to go for a Daley state wide - so winning those Dem votes will be the prize. I want to say Dillard even got 75% in his new portion of Democratic Cook County and Republicans in this State need to understand you need a Nominee to win not only the Primary but the General!

Comment by unreal Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 3:47 pm
RM, my point is that there is a significant amount of room for definition. I don’t think Bill Daley has the easiest name to sell, especially with the opposition research that will likely be done on him. I’d argue that most of that unknowns are going to be negative once he gets into the race….if he get’s into the race.

Comment by Empty Chair Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 3:51 pm
Lisa is likely to be our Illinois governor in 2014 or 2018, unless she runs for the next vacant Illinois US Senate seat.

A better Republican candidate for governor might be Christine Radogno, the newly reelected minority leader of the Illinois senate. She has name recognition and a loyal following of voters.

Comment by Ruby Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 3:55 pm
Umm, I think Daley would have the resources to define himself fairly well as a job-creator (commerce sec under bill clinton who created 22 million jobs) … my question is whether he would actually leave cook county to campaign

Comment by NW Illinois Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 4:12 pm
We cannot underestimate the advantages a sitting Governor has against any primary challenger.
The Governor will probably have a fundraising advantage over such a challenger. He also has the advantage of having added people to the state payroll who will likely lose their jobs if they do not adequately support him in the primary (assuming they are not in union-protected positions.) Such employees will not be sitting on the sidelines during a primary.
In a two-person race, Quinn has many advantages in a primary despite his low poll numbers unless the second person is Lisa then it is more questionable.
Personally, I don’t see Lisa running for Governor–at least not now. Her father is the DPI Chairman AND Speaker of the House with a veto-proof majority. I think her godfather (or her siblings’ godfather) is the President of the Senate with a veto-proof majority. If she ran, she would probably be beaten (in the general if not in the primary) by an argument that “the Madigans and the Democrats are too powerful as it is and they’ve run Illinois over the fiscal cliff so why give them even more power by making Lisa Governor.”

Comment by Oh Yeah Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 4:25 pm
MOON underscores a great point, that Lisa Madigan really won’t run until Mike Madigan is ready to retire. And I honestly think that her performance in these head-to-heads reflects that fact. This isn’t necessarily a backlash against Madigan (we know how that idea turned out for the ILGOP), but a concern over having a father-daughter team controlling the legislature and the executive branch. I bet her numbers would firm up if the Speaker retired.

Comment by the Other Anonymous Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 4:26 pm
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/29/1165571/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Live-Digest-11-29
The Quinn post is at 12:29 in this long post. I find it interesting that the liberal DailyKos thinks its the tax increase that makes him so hated in a Democratic Primary!

Comment by western illinois Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 4:32 pm
POLITICO is up with this story now, adding the factoid (which may have been obvious to others) that Papa Squeezy Quinn “is the least popular governor” among the states In which PPP has polled.
Over to you, Willy.

Comment by Arthur Andersen Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 4:38 pm
I wonder about all these people who think Ms Madigan is doing such a good job–what she’s doing is making sure Dad’s not investigated.

And no more Daleys, please.

Comment by Cheryl44 Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 4:43 pm
Quinn may choose not to run in 2014 if the polls show that he is very unlikely to win reelection.

Michael Madigan is 70 years old! He may decide to retire in the next two to four years.

This could be cue for Lisa to run for governor.

Comment by Ruby Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 5:13 pm
I meant to say:
This could be the cue for Lisa to run for governor.

Comment by Ruby Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 5:15 pm
How does she answer this debate question:

“General Madigan, in the past year, two members of the House of Representatives have been indicted. You are the chief law enforcement officer of the state of IL. But it has been the FBI investigating and the US Attorneys prosecuting the cases. What have you been doing to undermine political corruption in this state? Given that both legislators indicted were members of your fathers’ caucus, is there reason to believe he should be investigated? Is there a conflict of interest there for you?”

Comment by Captain Obvious Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 5:23 pm
Rutherford was 21/18 … What about Pongee????

Dillard, Schock, & Rutherford all the same, statistically, against Lisa. So much for, today, “I have the best chance against Lisa”, argument.

64% unfavorable for Quinn. “Squeezy” numbers for sure.

Factoid: It’s early. It might be “late”, too late, for Quinn.

“Fire”…. “Madigan”?….anyone?

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 5:28 pm
Being an exceptionally cautious Atty General who refuses to address any controversial issue unless absolutely forced to is apparently enough for Illinois voters. I prefer someone who leads by taking up unpopular but worthy causes.

Comment by Independent Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 5:40 pm
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/29/1165776/-PPP-finds-Quinn-in-precarious-shape-for-reelection-as-Illinois-governor-but-Madigan-looks-strong?showAll=yes

Sorry I posted teh earlier DKos thread because they went front page with it. I will issue a veiwer warning this is a very liberal partisan dem site BUT their political data is really good. PPP is their pollster. They are alos going to publish Pres vote by CD illinois is not sone yet

Comment by western illinois Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 5:56 pm
How can we promote LM who has turned the AG Office into a Consumer Protection Agency and nothing more.

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 6:18 pm
If complaints regarding illegal acts are brought to the attention of the FBI they are taken to the USAGO, not the IlAGO. If these same acts were brought to the ISP or local police they would be referred to FBI. Not sure why people keep thinking Lisa Madigan should be the color bearer for investigating corruption in Illinois. And anyone who thinks all they do is consumer protection has no idea what really goes on there.

Comment by Anon Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 6:42 pm
And exactly how many state level corruption cases did Jim Ryan prosecute?

Comment by Anon Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 6:43 pm
- Anon - Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 6:42 pm:
I see some of what the AG’s office has done. It fights to protect ethics act violators, procurement act violators, and others in top positions who break the law. So unfortunately, the AG’s job is to protect wrongdoing at the state official level, not fight it.

Comment by Crime Fighter Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 7:17 pm
I would vote for either Dan Rutherford or Lisa Madigan if they were not running against each other. If they were running against each other it would be a tough vote for me.

Comment by Honest Abe Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 7:23 pm
Agree with the posts above about the Daley name. Not what it used to be. I bet Quinn would beat Daley.

No doubt, Quinn looks incredibly weak. But he looked like a sure loser in both the primary and general two years ago and somehow won. And don’t forget his career was declared dead several times long before 2010. I’m no fan of the guy, but you gotta admire his ability to survive.

My guess is Lisa, Dart, and everyone else of substance takes a pass and Quinn’s primary opposition comes from a G.A. member. (Jack Franks or maybe a Senator with a 4 year term?) Quinn will win the primary and lose the general if he runs against a “moderate” Republican.

Comment by Tony Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 8:17 pm
It hasn’t even begun yet, and I’m already burnt out on the Pongee and Squeezy posts.

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 8:24 pm
Polling this far ahead of an election is kinda like a 30-day weather forecast — it’s completely meaningless.

What happens if the economy actually turns around as expected? Sheparding this state through arguably its darkest hour (Blago, the Great Recession) will make for some compelling ads.

If Quinn loses in the primary, which will be monumentally tougher during a good economy, then my guess is that people want a clean break from the same old same old. In other words, this could be the GOP’s best chance at a gubenatorial victory in other a decade.

Comment by Soxfan Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 9:36 pm
Polling this far ahead of an election is kinda like a 30-day weather forecast — it’s completely meaningless.

What happens if the economy actually turns around as expected? Sheparding this state through arguably its darkest hour (Blago, the Great Recession) will make for some compelling ads.

If Quinn loses in the primary, which will be monumentally tougher during a good economy, then my guess is that people want a clean break from the same old same old. In other words, this could be the GOP’s best chance at a gubenatorial victory in other a decade.

Comment by Soxfan Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 9:36 pm
Any chance Dan Hynes makes a comeback?

Comment by Paul Powell's Shoes Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 9:59 pm
I have a favorable opinion of Lisa Madigan - her father, not so much. Is it really wise to have that much power in the hands of one family? If I had my choice I would like to see Toni Preckwinkle run for Governor.

Comment by Waldi Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 10:03 pm
Pat’s running
Dan’s running
Kirk’s running
Bill’s running
Add in a Right Wing Crazy and a Billionaire white guy.
This is going to be fun!

Comment by Belden Ave. Thursday, Nov 29, 12 @ 10:27 pm
–I’m still putting my money on Dillard - again he is the only Republican candidate that can govern when sworn in and more importantly is able to win over the much sought after Independents and the Democrat crossovers.–

He got 20% in an open GOP primary. The fact of the matter is, four of five GOP voters went for someone else.

Comment by wordslinger Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 6:28 am
Who would want to be governor of this dysfunctional state? Baring a huge shift in the legislature, if you are a Republican you can’t get things through and can be overridden. If you are a Democrat, the things you have to do to fix the state make you an enemy of your own base.

Comment by MidwayGarden Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 7:48 am
re: Captain Obvious

Last time I checked wire fraud and violating federal campaign finance rules wasn’t the jurisdiction of state authorities. As for the bribery, the feds initiated that investigation and the briber was their plant. Jeez dude. This ain’t rocket science.

Comment by Jimbo Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 8:24 am