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* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…
You probably won’t be surprised to learn that a poll taken Jan. 30 of 1,255 likely Illinois Democratic primary voters shows Attorney General Lisa Madigan leading Gov. Pat Quinn by a very large margin.
Madigan also leads Quinn and former White House chief of staff Bill Daley in a three-way contest, according to the poll, but Quinn leads Daley in a one-on-one race.
And a large plurality of Democrats disapprove of the governor’s job performance. The We Ask America Poll has a margin of error of +/- 3 percent. About 18 percent of the results came from non-landline users.
In the poll, Madigan leads Quinn by 25 points, 51 percent to 26 percent. Among women, who almost always comprise a majority of Democratic primary election voters, Madigan’s lead is 53-22, while she leads among men 46-30.
Madigan’s lead over Quinn in Chicago is 46 percent to 30 percent and it’s 51-28 in suburban Cook County, while she leads Quinn 53-23 in the suburban collar counties and by a massive 53-21 downstate, according to the poll.
Madigan has not yet decided whether she’s going to run for governor. People close to her are divided over what they think she will do. She reportedly plans to take her time with her decision.
A Public Policy Polling survey taken in November had Madigan leading Quinn 64-20, but that poll was of just 319 “usual” Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 5.5 percent.
Still, PPP does excellent work, so if you average the two polls you get a 57 percent to 23 percent lead for Madigan over the governor. If Madigan’s decision is heavily weighted toward whether she can win the primary, she will give it a go.
Quinn has a better shot against Daley — a white, Irish Democrat from Chicago who may not bring much more to the table than Dan Hynes did in the 2010 primary.
According to the We Ask America poll, Quinn leads Daley by five points, 38 percent to 33 percent. November’s PPP survey had Daley leading Quinn 37-34, so average those two results and you get an essential tie at 36 for Quinn and 35 for Daley.
We Ask America found that Quinn leads Daley in the city 45-30, but Daley leads in suburban Cook 40-36. Quinn has a narrow half-point lead in the collar counties and leads by less than two percentage points downstate. The Daley name ain’t what it used to be.
Could Daley be a spoiler who helps Quinn in a three-way race? Not according to the We Ask America poll. It says Madigan leads a three-way contest with 37 percent to Quinn’s 20 percent and Daley’s 15. Public Policy Polling did not test a three-way race in November.
Madigan’s lead among women in a three-way contest is pretty big. She gets 38 percent to 17 for Quinn and 13 for Daley. Among men, her lead is a bit smaller at 34 percent to Quinn’s 24 and Daley’s 18.
Madigan leads Quinn and Daley in Chicago by 35 percent to 22 to 17. Her lead in suburban Cook is 35-18-18. She leads 36-17-16 in the collars and is ahead by a very big 40-19-11 downstate.
Public Policy Polling had Quinn’s job approval rating among Democrats at 40 percent, with a 43 percent disapproval. Last week’s We Ask America poll had Quinn’s approval among Dems at 37 percent, with a 42 percent disapproval.
Women give the governor a slightly lower disapproval rating than men — 41 percent of women disapprove, 46 percent of men. But just 36 percent of Democratic women and 37 percent of Democratic men approve of the way Quinn is handling his job.
Quinn won the 2010 primary and general elections despite low approval ratings. So, he’s been here before.
What he didn’t have to do back then, however, was take on one of the most popular politicians in Illinois. PPP’s November poll pegged Lisa Madigan’s favorable rating at 68 percent among Democrats, while just 16 percent had an unfavorable view of her.
If Madigan runs, she likely wins the primary election. Daley is another story. Like 2010, a Daley-Quinn race will be a hard-fought and bloody battle that could end up being pretty close.
If Quinn has to get a single primary opponent, Daley is the one he wants.
Subscribers have crosstabs.
* Related…
* Illinois attorney general collected $1.1B in 2012: Of that amount, more than half came from collections litigation, including funds from child support, damage to state property, unpaid educational loans, fines and penalties. The rest was split between tobacco litigation and estate tax revenues.
* Furniture tip-over safety campaign launched by Attorney Gen. Lisa Madigan
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Feb 4, 13 @ 11:41 am
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===Illinois attorney general collected $1.1B in 2012: Of that amount, more than half came from collections litigation, including funds from child support, damage to state property, unpaid educational loans, fines and penalties.===
“Look, I could think about Lisa Madigan being Illinois’ governor, but really, what has she done, I mean, like last year.”
“I just wish there was a way to measure Lisa Madigan’s office. I am sure the AG Office is costing the state tons, getting nothing in return.”
“Lisa Madigan is not THAT popular. You get any decent candidate, Lisa’s numbers are soft.”
“You just hook Lisa up as Michael Madigan’s daughter, and you beat her.”
Yep, those are my favorites.
If Lisa runs, and wins, twice… it ain’t no Princess Lisa, or “Speaker’s Daughter” winning, this is going to be won by her, on her merits, and on her skill in government and poilitcs. If you can hang MJM on her and win, go for it, but Lisa is “scary-scary” and not somebody to be taken lightly.
I just hope the ILGOP understands that, and doesn’t start talking from my favorite crutches above.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Feb 4, 13 @ 11:55 am
Well, until she runs, she doesn’t have to weigh in on pesky issues like pension reform and the plight of the state’s finances. We could try and guess what she might do, but based on what. The answer is not necessarily what would her dad do. But still, it would be nice to know. And we may not get much more than vague platitudes until after the primary.
So much for an informed electorate in our one-party state.
Comment by cassandra Monday, Feb 4, 13 @ 12:05 pm
Wow - more women in the more liberal of the two major parties would vote for a liberal woman. I am shocked! Truly shocked!
Comment by johhnypizza Monday, Feb 4, 13 @ 12:09 pm
Yes, let’s elect some more democrats since they have done such a good job here in Illinois. Living in this state is so frustrating. When I can, I am leaving this state and taking my money with me. Only a few more years now.
Comment by Wood Worker 2001 Monday, Feb 4, 13 @ 12:33 pm
Hard to believe that she would pass, with those numbers.
But she could. And if she does, you’d think at least one Dem (and I don’t mean Bill Daley) would probably be able to raise money to challenge Quinn.
Or is there a self-funder out there?
Comment by wordslinger Monday, Feb 4, 13 @ 12:34 pm
=== Yes, let’s elect some more democrats since they have done such a good job here in Illinois. Living in this state is so frustrating. When I can, I am leaving this state and taking my money with me. Only a few more years now. ===
Can’t wait. Don’t let the door hit you in the rear on the way out.
Comment by Fred's Mustache Monday, Feb 4, 13 @ 12:42 pm
I would love to see a Lisa Madigan vs. Bill Brady or Dan Rutherford poll ! She will mop the floor with them I suspect.
Comment by ElmwoodFunkmaster Monday, Feb 4, 13 @ 12:47 pm
–Living in this state is so frustrating. When I can, I am leaving this state and taking my money with me. Only a few more years now.–
Why wait? It’s quite a mobile society.
Or, perhaps you can’t you make better money somewhere else? My, that is frustrating, and contradictory.
Comment by wordslinger Monday, Feb 4, 13 @ 12:48 pm
With such great polling numbers I would think Lisa’s only concern would be the public perception concerning both her and her father occupying two powerful positions in state government. i.e. would this cause dad any problems?
Comment by one of the 35 Monday, Feb 4, 13 @ 12:54 pm
===Living in this state is so frustrating. When I can, I am leaving this state and taking my money with me.===
I bet your money works in … Texas … or Florida … or anyplace. If you leave Illinois, you might find, when you use your money, heck, they might even take it for things.
You can always leave. This ain’t the “Hotel California”, honest.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Feb 4, 13 @ 12:54 pm
I’ll be nice, but it would be enlightening to me for someone to explain why the people in this state love the democrats. They have given us a huge state debt, high income taxes, high property taxes, expensive toll roads, a public pension system that is on life support, and high degrees of currpution to name a few. What is it about these things do you people like? I’d really appreciate a thoughtful and meaningful response. I am really not seeking a snotty response.
Thank you in advance, and be nice.
Comment by Wood Worker 2001 Monday, Feb 4, 13 @ 1:02 pm
Like Kush-lash in Jerry McGuire, I think voters finally have Daley-lash.
Comment by James the Intolerant Monday, Feb 4, 13 @ 1:02 pm
Woody, you’re also not asking a terribly informed question.
Republicans held the governor’s mansion for all but four years from 1969 to 2003. And the Dem for those four years could do nothing.
Pate was a powerful guy for a long time, to boot.
Big problems don’t happen or go away overnight. If you could single out one person or one group for all the problems, one would think voters would toss them.
Comment by wordslinger Monday, Feb 4, 13 @ 1:08 pm
- and high degrees of currpution to name a few. -
Well, our last republican governor just got out of prison, maybe he could explain this conundrum to you.
Aside from that, Illinois has lower taxes than most of our neighbors, a well educated workforce, and one of the largest economies in all 50 states.
I’m pretty happy with the transportation system, and in general I think the apparatus of state government functions pretty well despite having less state employees per capita than any other state.
As to the pensions, if you think that’s a one party issue then you really need to get a clue.
I could keep going, but I won’t.
Comment by Small Town Liberal Monday, Feb 4, 13 @ 1:09 pm
===…explain why the people in this state love the democrats.===
Have you seen the candidates and the campaigns run by the ILGOP, the HGOP and SGOP?
It isn’t as much as people are in LOVE with one party or the other, it has everything to do with a factios of the GOP here, a lack of understanding the electorate at the General Assembly level, and then further, the poor campaign execution by some statewide GOP nominees.
By many reasons, without opening the “Bill Brady campaign” can of worms too far, losing the race for governor 2 years ago caused a great deal of this continued downward spiral.
Further, losing the Map (that everybody whines about!), and then running the most pathetic General Assembly cycle by the EXISTING (not former) H&S GOP politcal aparati, you get veto-proofed IL House and IL Senate, and a Dem governor.
Whew!
Now …
===Thank you in advance, and be nice.===
Sometimes when people post, playing the “victim/”Oh woe is ONLY me” card, that also gets tired. Just so you know why there is the Blowback at you.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Feb 4, 13 @ 1:13 pm
Hey, I appreciate the feedback, honestly. I have been looking for a web site with a small forum to bounce ideas/thoughts off of periodically. Not sure that is the purpose of this web site, but the exchange of a few ideas is never a bad thing. Thanks for responding!!! If the opportunity presents it self again, I will re-engage! Thank you! And I do agree with some of the feebdack. I am open minded but a little irriated at the dems these days.
Comment by Wood Worker 2001 Monday, Feb 4, 13 @ 1:15 pm
- Wood Worker 2001 -,
Rich’s site (We are all just guests) requires you to be thoughtful, insofar, if you want to post something, you better be ready, because more times than not, you may be asked to defend.
Stick around, above is the “Click here” about Rich runs things if you have any questions.
Like Illinois politics, this place “ain’t beanbag”.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Feb 4, 13 @ 1:22 pm
So….in 2006, Rod had poor approval numbers. His path to re-election was destroying JBT with a barrage of negative ads.
Quinn might try the same, only Lisa Madigan is already well known, popular, and shares a party with the governor. Can a 25-point deficit to this more popular candidate in your own party be erased in just over a year?
That’s a question Quinn has to mull now, because he’ll need to choose a path (retirement or total warfare) soon. Can’t imagine Lisa Madigan passing this race up given her polling, her fundraising, and her recent comments.
Comment by Boone Logan Square Monday, Feb 4, 13 @ 1:39 pm
One more thing. Those giant suburban leads Lisa Madigan has in the Democratic primary? Those are warning signs to the GOP that she’d annihilate a Bill Brady type among the general electorate. If I am one of the leaders of the Illinois Republican Party, I hope and pray Pat Quinn survives to a general election. Beating him would not be easy (if it was, he’d have lost in 2010), but Madigan’s appeal in Lake and DuPage counties could imperil downballot officeholders who weren’t already booted in 2012.
Comment by Boone Logan Square Monday, Feb 4, 13 @ 1:43 pm
- Boone Logan Square -,
Well said.
To your 1st Post, I dunno if Pat Quinn, given his Union issues to start, can raise the necessary monies needed to muddy-up Lisa at the Rod muddied-up Topinka. Quinn’s path has to include a very honest and serious look at funding.
To the 2nd Post, that is going to be the “elephant in the room”, no pun intended, by which the ILGOP, the GOP nominee, and the nominees political operation needs to look at as negatives, not as, “well, those voters will come home to us over Lisa.”
That, too, is a huge fear I have, being in the GOP, especially if there is a nominee that can win against Lisa, if they have a ground game.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Feb 4, 13 @ 1:50 pm
PQ make take the LBJ route and choose to not run again.
The GOP will need help from a brutal Dem primary if they stand any chance.
If PQ decides this is his last term, Daly will probably stay on the sideline.
The Dems will be unified behind their most popular candidate.
The GOP may be finished before they ever got started.
Comment by Endangered Moderate Species Monday, Feb 4, 13 @ 1:50 pm
I couldn’t agree more, Endangered.
Comment by Cheryl44 Monday, Feb 4, 13 @ 2:11 pm
It is so early that such polls are relatively meaningless. Yes, Lisa Madigan is popular, but it is easy to tally high poll numbers until you actually have to start answering questions and taking positions on issues. Things will level off down the line when the primary field shapes up.
Comment by Esquire Monday, Feb 4, 13 @ 2:13 pm
===PQ make take the LBJ route and choose to not run again.===
Pat Quinn went against Geo. H. Ryan, knowing he had a real good chance to lose for SOS, Dan Hynes didn’t scare him away, and although Lisa is not Dan Hynes, if YOU were Pat Quinn and you knew that its more than possible, with a few breaks here and there, you may get a GOP Nominee that is beatable again, so why not roll the dice?
The Power of the Office is a great politcal equalizer too, depending how others may try and paint him, or how he may try to campaign.
Lastly, Quinn walks away to what? Quinn could be the governor example of Jimmy Carter - “Glad he is gone, please stay gone.” Not saying that IS what will happen, but it surely CAN happen, given the climate out there against him.
Too early to agree or disagree with you, but leaning to Quinn rolling the dice, “Just one more time …”
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Feb 4, 13 @ 2:17 pm
OW- Those are good points to consider.
PQ is in a trick box.
He could look bad in most all scenarios; except for the scenario of Lisa not running, PQ winning the Dem primary, GOP candidates eating themselves up in a primary, PQ again squeaking by a GOP candidate that appeals to the GOP base and not the majority of the electorate.
Comment by Endangered Moderate Species Monday, Feb 4, 13 @ 2:25 pm
You guys are making this too complicated. Quinn is running, no matter who else runs, and no matter what the polls say.
If you look at his career and think he’s afraid to lose, you’re not looking very carefully.
Comment by Small Town Liberal Monday, Feb 4, 13 @ 2:29 pm
===Things will level off down the line ===
Yes, some, but barring a hydrogen bomb attack, not enough for Quinn.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Feb 4, 13 @ 2:30 pm
- Small Town Liberal -,
Sorry.
You are right, that is the bottom line, isn’t it?
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Feb 4, 13 @ 2:32 pm
FWIW, I’ve noticed there are a few people who comment here that immediately jump down people’s throats if they dare to suggest they are considering leaving Illinois or will be leaving IL as of a date certain. Often the reason for leaving is hinted at but sometimes it is unstated. Of course it might possibly be the last kid graduating, retiring after a long career here, family member they need to be nearer to, etc. –or prompted by high property taxes, crime, can’t find a job, concern about the state’s direction and finances, one party dominance, etc). Bah-bye–don’t let the door hit you– good riddance” are frequent types of responses. Frankly, I don’t get this hostility. I truly do not. It seems shortsighted and counterproductive in light of our state’s woes to dare people to move. Outflows of property owners, renters, consumers and taxpayers from our state should be discouraged rather than cheered, it seems to me. Granted, the weather isn’t great and a number of states don’t have income tax, but if we could get some of our looming problems under control and people felt less pessimistic about the future of our state I do believe fewer would entertain, even consider leaving the state they grew up in and love.
Putting our heads in the sand and pretending that there is not an outflow going on–and that there are not some valid causes– is crazy.
Comment by Responsa Monday, Feb 4, 13 @ 2:33 pm
===Outflows of property owners, renters, consumers and taxpayers from our state should be discouraged rather than cheered, it seems to me.===
I think what you are missing about this is the fact these are mostly drive-by posting, stating….
“I do not like it here, I am moving, everything stinks!”
How is that productive to anything being discussed? That is why they get the reception they get.
Do you like having a discussion, then someone in the middle of the discussion blurts, “It’s awful, I hate it, I am leaving”? At some point, you would say to them, “Well, then just go and stop talking about it!”
If all the feedback is a whine, call them on it, its not like the post is adding to the discussion.
Just my thought on it. Hope that helps.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Feb 4, 13 @ 2:51 pm
Lisa just shouldn’t run unless both the pension and permanent tax issues are relatively settled. The Gov will suffer big time next term, if they are not.
I hope that happens this year, but wouldn’t bet on it.
Comment by walkinfool Monday, Feb 4, 13 @ 3:28 pm
You were not alone, OW, but I take it your own pushback, then, is related more to your concern that the “I’m leaving” comment was off-topic or drive-by rather than that you disagree it might indeed represent/indicate a nacent dangerous demographic trend that we all should be examining more closely. Fair enough. Perhaps there will be an opportunity to discuss this population outflow issue on another proper thread here someday, and that you will, as you always do, enthusiastically join in that debate. I hope so. Losing population and the considerable repurcussions of that is a worthy subject to examine further. It worries many of us from various fields and endeavors a whole lot.
Comment by Responsa Monday, Feb 4, 13 @ 3:28 pm
mR/ms Oswego:
Perhaps WS remains IL because he/she is locked into some no show, light work, big check spot that is not portable.
Please don’t feign an out of state retreat.
We must also credit the braintrusters for serving up plate after plate of high quality candidates.
Looking forward it appears the IL GOPs are racing to repeat the 2010 porimary in 2014
Fire, Aim,Ready.
Comment by CircularFiringSquad Monday, Feb 4, 13 @ 3:36 pm
Reponsa,
Out-migration from the midwest has been occurring for several decades. There are many variables to consider and the solutions are not simple. Thomas Friedman’s book “The World is Flat”, is a good resource that studies a number of the variables.
Many of us enjoy coming to this blog for a good healthy debate. Having a debate with the kid who wants to quit and take the ball home with him is not much fun.
Comment by Endangered Moderate Species Monday, Feb 4, 13 @ 3:44 pm
-Responsa -,
- E.M.S. - is On Point. If I want to discuss with drive-by posts, I would respond to the moving “Bit”, but these drive-by posts add very little & Rich’s Blog is better for calling out the goofiness. Don’t miss the forest thru the trees.
Again, your close, well said, - E.M.S. -.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Feb 4, 13 @ 4:14 pm
Responsa,
The post in question was this:
===Yes, let’s elect some more democrats since they have done such a good job here in Illinois. Living in this state is so frustrating. When I can, I am leaving this state and taking my money with me. Only a few more years now.===
What issues is this kind of post supposed to address? What kind of problems does this type of comment bring to the debate? The fact that the democrats are in power!?!?!
In recent years, I have heard a LOT of complaining about Illinois. I honestly would’nt want to live anywhere else. From Zion to Cairo, Illinois is one of the most diverse states in the country. It has a world class city that has nearly anything you could ever ask for. Illinois as a whole has a whole lot to offer. I really don’t like when people prefer to badmouth the State that I love and grew up in - especially when they prefer to make blanket negative comments rather than proposing solutions to the issues that face us.
Combine this with the fact that Im a South Sider with a chip on his shoulder, my response should come as no surprise. I stand by my “don’t let the door hit you on the way out” response. Seriously though, if you don’t like it here, its a free country man. The world is your oyster.
Comment by Fred's Mustache Monday, Feb 4, 13 @ 4:15 pm
==Out-migration from the midwest has been occurring for several decades==
You are correct. And that, along with an aging population has already decimated small and medium towns in more rural areas of IL, and has literally closed down already financially troubled cities in other states (Detroit for example). But in IL the increase in serious population outflow from suburbs and Chicago to other states is more recent, as is shown on the last census, and is therefore more troubling. The impact of that on the tax base of the whole state, on retail receipts, and on the housing market are undeniable and will only get worse. We can talk about it or not talk about it. But when we don’t talk about it honestly, neither are we looking at any solutions.
Comment by Responsa Monday, Feb 4, 13 @ 4:17 pm
- CFS -,
Just imagine, at times, all this Dopiness has been part of a plan. A plan for what? I dunno.
We should ask “Two Putt” & “Jo Galloway” about the GA game plan sometime (?)
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Feb 4, 13 @ 4:17 pm
We can always ask Lisa about the migration, but I digress.. Or DID … I?
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Feb 4, 13 @ 4:22 pm
To all interested parties whether in the forest or the trees–You don’t have to discuss it with Wood Worker and you don’t have to discuss it today on this blog. You don’t have to discuss it with me, ever. Maybe a good and savvy and serious candidate, though, like Lisa, will want to address it in a no blame manner as a demographic issue that must be discussed for sake of the future of our state.
Comment by Responsa Monday, Feb 4, 13 @ 4:32 pm
Nobody, but nobody, understands statewide politics like Speaker Madigan. He’s run legislative campaigns statewide for thirty years. I suspect that secretly, Madigan would have liked to run statewide as a young man. If Lisa runs, he’ll pull out all the stops.
Comment by Louis Howe Monday, Feb 4, 13 @ 4:41 pm
I am a lifelong Democrat, but it is disturbing that we can’t do any better than Lisa Madigan. Her dad has pretty much run e state into the ground while getting rich through his law firm, little people be damned. This state wold actually benefit from a Republican or independent , or an outsider Democrat who isn’t beholden to the machine.
Comment by Gunnery Sgt Hartman Monday, Feb 4, 13 @ 6:25 pm
Wonder if LM’s anti-union position with her AG employees could have any impact if push comes to shove. She really doesn’t treat her people well at all. Makes Quinn’s moves against ASCFME look weak and ineffective.
Re: Daley v. Quinn….I guess I’m not surprised that D’s would favor a pompous boob over the only D candidate with actual managerial experience in the real world. But then, I’m not a D.
Comment by park Monday, Feb 4, 13 @ 8:16 pm
RE: Migration
Here is a fun fact that came out of the hearing to correct the bankrupt medical licensing. Since the doc licensing fee was last hiked to $300 for 3 years ( now worth over $610 in 2013 dollars) the number of Docs has grown from 20,000 to 46-50,000. And that was in the era when all the sleazy ambulance chasers were forcing the quacks to flee IL
Perhaps the place ain’t so bad.
BTW IL Med Society is offering to support boosting the three year fee to $500 which not even keep pace with the inflation #.
Comment by circularfiringsquad Tuesday, Feb 5, 13 @ 5:28 am
===Her dad has pretty much run e state into the ground while getting rich through his law firm, little people be damned.===
Yep. MJM’s fault. I say,…we “Fire Madigan”.
That will show him but good.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Feb 5, 13 @ 8:23 am
- CFS -,
===Perhaps WS remains IL because he/she is locked into some no show, light work, big check spot that is not portable.
Please don’t feign an out of state retreat.===
I laughed out loud reading that. Good stuff.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Feb 5, 13 @ 8:27 am
-D’s would favor a pompous boob-
Park, It is these types of comments made by members of the minority party that does not appeal to the majority of the electorate. Raise yourself to a higher level and help positively influence the debate.
Chris Christie was on Letterman last night. I like that guy, he can laugh at himself and has the ability to connect with the mainstream citizen. I thought his weight would be a negative in a national race, but he may have the ability to turn the table and use his weight to a political advantage. He certainly is a different kind of GOP candidate than we are use to.
Comment by Endangered Moderate Species Tuesday, Feb 5, 13 @ 9:29 am