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* Your predictions, please?…
Please try to answer all three and explain your answers. Thanks!
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 12:17 pm
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Previous Post: House Executive Committee to take up gay marriage today
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Halvorson - Black vote will be split.
Concealed carry won’t get far in Illinois.
Gays will be just as miserable as straights.
Comment by Hacks Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 12:24 pm
Kelly with a comfortable margin.
There will be a CC law passed, but nothing conclusive will come out of the House today.
Gay marriage will eventually pass the House this session.
As for an explanation: the political winds are blowing and each of these represents a continuation of recent trends. Polling shows Kelly with momentum, even with a low turnout primary in the middle of a snowstorm.
Some form of CC has to be passed by court order, so something will become law. It just won’t be what Phelps and ISRA were hoping for. There will be more restrictions than they’d prefer. That’s a continuation of the post-Sandy Hook trend of popular support for common sense gun control.
Finally, the gay marriage vote continues a global trend on this issue. There is no going back.
Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 12:27 pm
Kelly 37
Beale 31
Halvorson 19
Conceal Carry eventually passes with 67 votes
Gay Marriage passes with 60.
Comment by Chicago Cynic Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 12:31 pm
I predict wins for Kelly, Vandermyde and Harris, respectively.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 12:32 pm
Representative Robin Kelly will serve at least a full term and not be indicted for anything.
The courts will have to decide how conceal carry will work in Illinois because there are too many screamers on both sides of that debate.
Gay marriage will pass the House and be signed into law during this session. People on the fence will realize it’s good for the economy. Haters will continue to hate (and no, I don’t think everyone who is against it actually hate gays. Perhaps the non-haters who are against it will come around too, who knows).
Comment by Cheryl44 Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 12:33 pm
===Conceal Carry eventually passes with 67 votes===
That would mean no override of home rule. Takes 71.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 12:34 pm
Kelly is going to get 40-45, Halvorson 20-25, Beale will get about 10 and Anthony Williams will be the next highest vote getter.
So form of concealed carry will pass and the gun control advocates won’t get anything as part of the deal.
Gay marriage bill will pass out of committee and then it will pass the full House.
Comment by Carl Nyberg Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 12:36 pm
Kelly wins, Halvorson 3rd, Beals shows some legs to fight for something else dow the road.
Todd fights for every single thing CC proponets require, and as each amendment is discussed, the calendar is going to favor CC proponents every day they get closer to June, so I see the hearings more about, “Nice try …but we can still wait you out,” being a very strong hammer for CC.
Greg Harris has not said the status, so when Harris gives me the road map, then I will watch the bill travel down that road. That being said, right now, Harris needs to cobble 60 votes, getting his few R’s and as the Bill moves, we will get to see how much “Magic” Harris can muster, and how strong those worried Freshamn on both sides get, the closer the day arrives to vote.
This might not get done till April(?). Like I said, I think when Harris sends up the smoke signal, that is the “tell” how close.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 12:36 pm
Kelly wins comfortably
CC passes with moderate regulation
Marriage passes by a very close margin
Comment by Anon Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 12:49 pm
What 47 said.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 1:04 pm
Repubs crossover and vote for DH
CC passes
SSM comes back for another day
Comment by austinman Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 1:07 pm
1. Kelly by a decent margin. Money talks (most of the time when it’s this much), especially in a off year special election. And the results won’t be a referendum on Sandy Hook, gun control, etc. no matter what the talking heads tell us.
2. Madigan’s amendment filled option will pass, meaning Illinois will basically still have no concealed carry (except for police and the bodyguards of politicians). Gun rights advocates will be back in court the day Quinn’s signature is attached to the bill. Lather, rinse, repeat.
3. This is the tough one. I don’t think the votes are there yet in the full house. With civil unions only being in effect for two years, any rep on the fence has cover to say let’s wait. It will be the law here someday, but I will be surprised if that time is now.
Comment by Roadiepig Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 1:14 pm
Kelly wins comfortably will be a yawner of an election.
Gay marriage stalls again for this session.
CCW passes NRA gets most provisions but Home rule is not overridden. Chicago blocks carry in city and gets sued to allow.
Comment by Mason born Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 1:22 pm
Kelly 44
Beale 29
Halvorson 24
Other 3
2.) CC will go to court
3.) Gay marriage–very narrowly and after alot of arm twisting.
train111
Comment by train111 Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 1:23 pm
Kelly: 53%
Halvorson: 23%
Hutchinson: 8%
Beale: 12%
Others: 4%
Comment by The Captain Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 1:26 pm
Kelly wins and Bloomberg gets all the attention/credit.
Cc will wait until May. Today they are testing the waters.
SSM will pass and be signed and this issue can be behind us for good.
Now can we get to pensions?
Comment by Casual observer Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 1:37 pm
1. Kelly, the weather will hold down the voters.
2. CC if passed, will contain too many exceptions; Senate will amend it and send it back.
3. Will not come to a vote; will MM ever get a building at Notre Dame or Loyola named after him if he supports SSM?
Comment by Darienite Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 1:39 pm
1. Kelly wins with a healthly plurality. Her stance on guns best reflects the district.
2. Illinois will be a may issue state. Democrats have to make C&C law; however, the “reasonable restrictions” will allow them to pursue laws similiar in Democratic run states. The 7th didn’t say it had to be shall issue.
3. It’ll happen. Majority of Illinois residents support it, and it’s a Democratic government.
Comment by SirLankselot Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 1:52 pm
All logic says Kelly in a rout. I usually don’t put much stock in ED weather, but this is crazy. If Halvorson has a prayer, it is in low turnout and a Republican crossover. It happened in the 90s for Reynolds, but there was a GOP organization in the suburbs back then. No longer. Kelly is also the only candidate left actually running a full-fledged campaign.
Kelly 48, Halvorson 20, Beale 15
CC will be a mess for years.
Same sex marriage will pass.
Comment by Snucka Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 1:53 pm
“will MM ever get a building at Notre Dame or Loyola named after him if he supports SSM?”
Daley has a building named after him at DePaul, and he supported same sex marriage early and loudly. While the Cardinal and Rome are against same sex marriage, I would venture say that the majority of Catholic university employees, faculty and even priests I know are in favor.
Comment by ChicagoR Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 1:58 pm
Kelly win
DUI recipients will not carry
lst GM Bill Mitchell and GmanJim!
Comment by CircularFiringSquad Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 2:00 pm
I’ll go with Kelly since I haven’t heard how a Madigan feels and the rest of the big pols seem to like her.
conceal carry fails - terrible timing.
gay marriage passes - good timing.
Comment by lake county democrat Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 2:03 pm
Halvorson wins as the Black vote is fractured and it is cold/snowy out. It will be close, though. 20-25% for DH
CC wins and as a compromise, so does gay marriage.
Comment by Wumpus Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 2:07 pm
===conceal carry fails - terrible timing.===
It can’t really fail. The question is how restrictive it turns out to be. It will happen one way or the other.
Comment by Nick Kruse Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 2:14 pm
Gay marriage will be taken care of one way or another by the end of the session. Whether it is done in the House or by the state supreme court or by the national supreme court, it is happening. If its done in the House, I predict they will wait until after the primary so they can get any Republican lame ducks.
Comment by Nick Kruse Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 2:18 pm
Halverson takes it due to split.
CCW by 62 in the house, because Madigan will rule that HIS bill only needs simple majority, and it will be “may issue” and will go directly to court.
Gay marriage: will pass and will drag the screaming conservatives along by their toe.
Comment by John Jacob Jingleheimer Schmidt Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 2:34 pm
Kelly in a squeaker because everyone lined up behind her.
CC will go to the courts for reasons all stated above. Are they done dealing with all the amendments on that?
SSM will pass and, astoundingly, the world will not end.
Comment by Sideliner Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 2:58 pm
~Will MM ever get a building at Notre Dame or Loyola named after him if he supports SSM?~
If he can afford one, yes.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 4:08 pm
Sorry, the Anon at 4:08 is me. I’m not in my office.
Comment by Cheryl44 Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 4:09 pm
I think it comes down to the wire between Halvorson and Kelly. Turnout is going to be terrible. Republican voters who are into their guns are highly motivated to cross over. Beale is splitting the urban portion of Kelly’s base.
Comment by Angry Chicagoan Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 4:35 pm