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The perception of corruption

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Illinois

I forgot to post my syndicated newspaper column. Here it is.

Is Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s administration just as corrupt or even more corrupt than former Gov. George Ryan’s crew? A new poll finds a plurality of Illinoisans would answer “yes” to that question.

A poll by the Glengariff Group found that 43 percent of Illinoisans believe the Blagojevich administration is as corrupt or more corrupt than George Ryan’s government, while 41 percent said there is less corruption. The findings are surprising because Ryan was recently convicted of all charges in a federal criminal trial, while no officials of Blagojevich’s administration have even been indicted […]

Blagojevich leads Topinka by seven points in the poll, 41 to 34. That represents a 10-point drop for Topinka from an early April poll, when Glengariff had the Republican challenger leading the Democratic incumbent 44 to 41. Since then, the governor let loose with a barrage of negative TV ads that have done what they were intended to do â€” drive Topinka’s numbers down.

However, Topinka is ahead 53 to 25 among voters who believe Blagojevich’s administration is as corrupt or more corrupt than Ryan’s. Those who think there has been less corruption prefer Blagojevich over Topinka 60 to 23. “The corruption factor appears to be the great divide in this race,” claims Glengariff president Richard Czuba. […]

The survey also shows big trouble for Topinka with Republicans since the last Glengariff Group poll was taken in April, when 81 percent of Republican voters supported her candidacy. Now just 65 percent back their party’s standard-bearer, a likely result of the governor’s TV ads, which appear to be a lot better done than most of the ads run by her primary opponents. The good news for Topinka is that her support among independents is still the same â€” 39 percent.

The entire poll can be found here. The press release is here. (pdf files)

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Jun 12, 06 @ 4:29 pm

Comments

The Baby Boomers who no doubt will cast the majority of votes in this election are not too concerned with corruption, or the debt that is amassing under recent political watch, IMHO.

As long as taxes are kept low and some semblance of function is kept at state agencies, things are OK enough. When the bill becomes due, they can always retire to a low tax sun belt state, and their kids can follow them if they wish.

I’d say the two most influential people in determining the winner of this election are Patrick Fitzgerald, who could wave the corruption flag high enough that the voters couldn’t ignore it, and Mike Madigan, who has the power to booby trap the Gov if he sees fit. If JBT wins, it will be because one or both of the aforementioned gents tossed it into her lap.

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Monday, Jun 12, 06 @ 5:57 pm
I don’t think there are term limits for Illinois govenors, correct?

So if the White House doesn’t beckon in 2010, and it’s highly unlikely that it will, couldn’t Blago try to hang on and on as Illinois guv. How long can Lisa wait. She’s young, but the farther out you go the less predictable the outcome. JBT really is a better bet for Lisa.

Comment by Cassandra Monday, Jun 12, 06 @ 7:29 pm
There is a strong anti-incumbent mood among the electorate right now. Ask all of the former mayors who lost re-election in 2005. Half the board of the Municipal League got tossed out on their keister.

The challenge for Topinka is to present herself to voters as an agent of change when she’s been a fixture in Springfield for so long. The fact that she is a woman will insulate her from many of the good-old-boy charges. So will her style. No one knows for sure whether it will be enough.

The one thing Blagojevich has working for him is partisanship. Well over 40% of Illinois voters identify themselves as democrats, according to every poll. If Blagojvich can capitalize on partisanship, he might consolidate his Democratic base just enough to pull out a victory. Of course, that will be tough to do if labor unions like AFSCME and IFT are out there working hard against him. I expect some of the trade unions will also be working hard for Topinka as well.

Blagojevich’s support among Democrats has actually fallen since the last poll, despite the partisan attacks on Topinka, which is not a good sign for him. The fact that Democrats aren’t rallying around Blagojevich as he attacks Republicans on issues like gun safety is not a good sign for him.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Monday, Jun 12, 06 @ 7:40 pm
Yeah, you’re right. This is more good news for Topinka. She’s got this thing in the bag. It’s all going to backfire on Rod. He’s on the ropes. Indictments, corruption, jogging on state time, Bradley Tusk, 15-million in the bank.

Blah, blah, blah.

Comment by B Hicks Monday, Jun 12, 06 @ 8:14 pm
The main thing the poll seems to show me is that this issue of corruption or the appearance of same is a strong, perhaps the strongest, dividing issue between the two choices.

To me it shows everyone that’s for Judy accepts Rod’s guilt as an article of faith, and those polling hard for Rod believe strongly he is righteous… (threw up in my mouth a litle just then, sorry).

This split could stay locked like this right to the end, which leaves a small swing vote in play consisting of the ill-informed and uninterested.

What grabs those sorts of people? Bright shiny things, mostly, and explosions. Free giveaways. Promises about refunds or some kind of cash kickback or similar benefit. They don’t care they are eating seed corn, it’s “keep popping that stuff and bring on the butter.” Rod’s folks must be counting on this sector, but they are extremely fickle and possesed of a short memory. Ergo the manic media spending and PR grandstanding, praying the name recognition and some perception of something good stick at the same time, long enough to punch the card.

Comment by Gregor Monday, Jun 12, 06 @ 9:58 pm
He may be a b*stard, but he’s our b*stard.

And yep, Cassandra, there are no term limits. Big Jim was the longest serving gov in IL history.

From Wikipedia: “In the 1976 election, he won 65 percent of the vote over Democratic Secretary of State Michael Howlett. Thompson was re-elected in 1978 with 60 percent of the vote, defeating State Superintendent Michael Bakalis. Thompson was very narrowly re-elected in 1982 over former U.S. Senator Adlai E. Stevenson III; Thompson decisively defeated him in their re-match four years later.”

A half term and 3 full terms. Coulda run in 1990 and prolly won. An IL version of FDR.

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Monday, Jun 12, 06 @ 10:03 pm
Rich - I forgot to ask — the Glengariff was previously mentioned on Capitolfax regarding a poll they did on behalf of Equality Illinois. Was this tracking poll for Equality Illinois?

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Monday, Jun 12, 06 @ 10:47 pm
B Hicks - I don’t think anyone in there right mind would argue that Topinka has this in the bag. I don’t think that anyone in their right mind would argue either candidate has this in the bag. Rod’s got all the money in the world to get his message out, and no credibility, and Topinka’s got alot of credibility and no money.

It’s going to be a very interesting race for the media guys on both teams because the old partisan messages used by both sides a decade ago just don’t resonate with the public.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Monday, Jun 12, 06 @ 10:55 pm
I think it is unlikely that Blago will be indicted before the election because the Feds don’t want to appear political. Even if they have the goods on Blago, they will wait.

If Blago is indicted while Governor, can he pardon himself?

Comment by Schiznitz Monday, Jun 12, 06 @ 11:33 pm
Joke of the day: I’m not sure who has it in the bag, but I do know who’ll be left holding the bag.

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Tuesday, Jun 13, 06 @ 12:38 am