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Poll: Quinn job disapproval at 62 percent

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Illinois
Polls

* The latest poll from We Ask America…

* From the pollster…

We’ve profiled Gov. Quinn before (Tenacious Gadfly), and not much has changed since then. Illinois continues to struggle under oppressive ($100 billion) public pension debt and multi-billion dollar budget deficits despite a sizable “temporary” state income tax now pumping more into state coffers. Quinn is often portrayed in press and the political blogosphere in terms of being hapless–not a great portrait for someone seeking re-election in tough times. Indeed, rumors continue to swirl of the possibility of fellow Democrats trying to take him out in next year’s Primary. But political coroners have tagged Quinn’s toe a number of times in the past only to be confounded. Will that be the case in 2014? Perhaps, but these approval numbers simply cannot be dismissed easily.

It’s problematic for Gov. Quinn that support among Independent voters continues to erode for him. Again, let’s be clear that these approval numbers can’t be viewed as a predictor of doom. Quinn’s dismal approval rating didn’t stop him from winning in 2010.

But we’re sure that some will look at these results and assume that Quinn can best be described as the Walking Dead.

The poll of 1,057 Likely Voters was taken yesterday and has a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent.

posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, May 9, 13 @ 10:21 am

Comments

Isn’t this why they have Lisa Madigan waiting in the wings? Democrats want to keep the office. If PQ’s numbers do not improve, they would need her to run.

Comment by east central Thursday, May 9, 13 @ 11:02 am
The suburban Cook numbers should be of concern to PQ. He only won Cook (+Chicago) and one other county in 2010.

Wonder what the Hispanic vote is thinking?

Comment by Darienite Thursday, May 9, 13 @ 11:10 am
Quinn’s great advantage remains the extreme weakness of the Republicans, who, so far, seem to have made little progress in updating their platform.

If Lisa decides not to challenge him this time, Quinn gets another term. Another four years then he retires and she moves in without a nasty intra-party primary fight. Madigan Sr. retires too, done his bit to reduce the net wealth of middle class Illinoisians via the cost shift and the pension “reform.” Labor continues to support the Democratic candidate.

Comment by cassandra Thursday, May 9, 13 @ 11:18 am
Isn’t the real story here (in the context of all the “Lisa is Running” talk) the fact Quinn still holds a +14 in approval among self-identified Democrats?

Lisa is a strong candidate, and she benefits from a well organized operation. But it seems to me that beating Quinn in a primary is not a slam dunk.

And even if Quinn is beaten? It will take a big toll on the party, and leave an angry, populist, Quinn on the sidelines tossing loads of sand into the gears.

Comment by ILPundit Thursday, May 9, 13 @ 11:26 am
Ironically, I was actually surveyed in this last night. To the results its not a done deal for Governor McSqueezy. I mean he still has a majority of Dems approving of him and still has majority approval in Chicago. With the Madigan brand being front and center in the pension fight it might help Quinn gain some “at least he didn’t do that” voters. Regardless of what he’s said in the past about pensions. So, overall I think it could be worse for him. Downstate is not as important in a Democratic Primary. In the general it looks bad with the suburbs, but the GOP field is shall we say challenged…so anything could happen.

Comment by Greatplainser Thursday, May 9, 13 @ 11:27 am
And yet, if Quinn is the nominee and the ILGOP puts up Rauner or another Bradyesque candidate, I’ll vote for Governor Quinn again. I’m sure I’m not the only one who will.

Comment by Chavez-respecting Obamist Thursday, May 9, 13 @ 12:20 pm
If you fail at the plate 62% of the time, you get elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame.

Focus on the postive. After all of this floundering and flailing about, all of it, 28% of the people are still with him.

Comment by 47th Ward Thursday, May 9, 13 @ 12:21 pm
Not to get all mathy on you, but he doesn’t have a majority of Democrats — he has a plurality. This tells us nothing about how the Governor would fare in a primary, as the poll is about the Governor alone and a primary is about the Governor vs. someone that the voters like more, or like less.

Comment by soccermom Thursday, May 9, 13 @ 12:22 pm
If Lisa runs, she’s the next governor.
If she doesn’t and Quinn is the nominee, then it would be the Republicans’ race to lose. Of course that was true in 2010, too!

Comment by reformer Thursday, May 9, 13 @ 12:23 pm
==Another four years then he retires==

After he “reforms” state pensions, he won’t be able to afford retirement.

Comment by Anon. Thursday, May 9, 13 @ 12:24 pm
It’s worth noting that the Governor’s approval ratings are a few points higher than they were heading into the 2010 general election.

Comment by soccermom Thursday, May 9, 13 @ 12:26 pm
Great points by all about the “plurality” aspectgs of a Primary, I appreciate that kind of analysis, and looking at the polling numbers in a way to give context to what it says about Pat Quinn, and what it MAY mean in a Priamry. Awesome.

As a Republican looking at this, and just for arguement sake, Quinn gets through the Primary… the 70%+ negative in the the “indies” polled gives me hope. Just as long as we in the ILGOP understand, we have to run “through” the Finish Line, not close to it so we can measure Drapes and pick out Dishes.

Thanks Rich for the Polling info. Interesting for Quinn, and the lesson to be taken, for me, today is …===…Again, let’s be clear that these approval numbers can’t be viewed as a predictor of doom. Quinn’s dismal approval rating didn’t stop him from winning in 2010.===

Yep. Underestimating an Election Day operation is my bigger fear, even bigger than Pat Quinn.

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, May 9, 13 @ 12:28 pm
It’s all about matchups. He certainly can be beat, but not by just anyone.

Comment by wordslinger Thursday, May 9, 13 @ 1:03 pm
The GOP race to lose? Lets put up oberweis and make sure the GOP does lose.

Comment by Wumpus Thursday, May 9, 13 @ 1:09 pm
I think Quinn has done an admirable job despite major issues. He has attracted new businesses, has trimmed state budget. He is a tireless campaigner and should be reelected.

Comment by bill Thursday, May 9, 13 @ 1:15 pm
Kind of takes me back 38 years when another Dem. governor, Walkin’ Dan, was unpopular and all Mike H. had to do was blow the trumpets and the walls would crash down. Dan barely lost primary (time ran out calendar wise) and the result in the general was that Big Jim won by 1.5M votes!

Comment by Elmira Eddie Thursday, May 9, 13 @ 1:28 pm
“The suburban Cook numbers should be of concern to PQ. He only won Cook (+Chicago) and one other county in 2010.”

Facts are darn stubborn things!
http://elections.state.il.us/ElectionInformation/VoteTotalsList.aspx?ElectionType=GE&ElectionID=29&SearchType=OfficeSearch&OfficeID=5370&QueryType=Office&

Comment by Precinct Captain Thursday, May 9, 13 @ 3:29 pm
Hmmmm just 62% ????

Comment by Albert.... Thursday, May 9, 13 @ 5:00 pm
I can tell u most of the “people” i know are NOT better off today then they where before Quinn came into office - if u ask them they are worse and that is why he will not get my vote this time

Comment by Anom Thursday, May 9, 13 @ 6:55 pm
Ouch. Oh well, as has been referred to SO many times in this blog by one Commenter or another, however, 11 LONG months before the Primary, you just can never count Pat Quinn out–’cuz he’s DEFinitely got some of that “Comeback Kid” mojo goin’ on, as we ALL remember how he pulled it out not only ONCE, but TWICE last time when behind consistently in the Polls–first, to Hynes in the Primary he was supposed to lose, and then to Brady, who he beat after trailing in the Polls right down to Election Day!!! Yet, this info. no doubt has got to be at least a LITtle bothersome to the Governor…!

Comment by Just The Way It Is One Thursday, May 9, 13 @ 8:49 pm
I don’t support the IL DEM party, I didn’t vote for Quinn, I don’t necessarily like him, I think he’s failed to grow into the job as much as I had hoped, and I probably had more respect for him as LG when he was just championing veterans.

But having said all that, I think he is slowly getting better at being Gov … and I probably have a more favorable view of him now than I have had any time since his first year as Gov … so I can understand why Quinn still retains a base of supporters.

Comment by RNUG Thursday, May 9, 13 @ 10:42 pm