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“Negative but rarely heavy-handed”

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Illinois

This AP story has some fairly good insights into the governor’s advertising blitz.

Gov. Rod Blagojevich is hitting his Republican opponent with a barrage of campaign ads, but the goal isn’t an early knockout. Instead, the ads amount to a series of jabs designed to leave Judy Baar Topinka bruised and bloodied in the minds of voters.

They’re short â€“ generally just 15 seconds. Most use Topinka’s own words against her, pointing out that she said raising the minimum wage would be a government “giveaway” or that she has praised unpopular politicians.

They are negative but rarely heavy-handed. The tone almost was one of regret that any politician could be so misguided, summed up by the frequent closing line: “Judy Baar Topinka â€“ what’s she thinking?” […]

Another political strategist, Don Rose, said Blagojevich’s unusually short ads might minimize the backlash that usually comes with negative ads. They don’t really give viewers a chance to identify them as Blagojevich ads and get angry, he said.

Their message can also come and go so quickly that viewers miss the details, but Rose said that’s OK as long as they get the message that Topinka is being accused of something bad.

“If you see them enough times, it becomes something close to subliminal: Topinka no good, Topinka no good,” he said.

Read the whole thing.

UPDATE: A summary of the governor’s ads is here.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Jun 26, 06 @ 8:10 am

Comments

Clever….of course, there are risks in being too obviously mean to a female opponent (although it shouldn’t matter, of course) and these ads allow Blago to mitigate those risks.

And where is this clueless person who is running JBT’s campaign? There are all kinds of possibilities for a response, including a Sell Illinois series, based on recent events.

But we have barely seen JBT, much less her ads.

Comment by Cassandra Monday, Jun 26, 06 @ 8:21 am
What are you so nervous about, Cassandra?

Regarding political ’strategist’ Don Rose - evey single person with a functioning brain know who is responsible for those ads. “They donâ€™t really give viewers a chance to identify them as Blagojevich ads and get angry, he said.”

Wow. Don are you really Rebecca Rausch in disguise or one of the other vocal enablers?

Comment by Anonymous Monday, Jun 26, 06 @ 8:49 am
Is Judy still running? I haven’t heard a peep from her in weeks. I thought she gave up.

Comment by Denby Monday, Jun 26, 06 @ 8:56 am
I think its funny when I hear that JBT opposes all kids.

Come on, Judy, some kids are all right.

Comment by Larry Horse Monday, Jun 26, 06 @ 9:01 am
Speaking of which, I’d like to say that the ads for All Kids talking about families choosing between food and prescriptions are in no way political, just informative.

Comment by Larry Horse Monday, Jun 26, 06 @ 9:02 am
Blagojevich’s re-election is being ran by Democratic party people. So, the ads they choose to run are speaking to Democratic-thinking voters, not independents or Republicans.

Only Democrats would believe that JBT doesn’t like kids. Only Democrats would believe that AllKids is a miracle. Only Democrats would feel an ad jabbing JBT as anti-minimum wage is a powerful ad.

These ads are not working very well because they are preaching to a choir.

Keep wasting your pay-to-play campaign funds Mr. Blagojevich.

Comment by VanillaMan Monday, Jun 26, 06 @ 9:43 am
Vanilla, how do sour grapes taste? Your post seems quite sour, so I’m guessing they’re pretty nasty tasting, eh?

The ads are not working well? What are Judy’s numbers? She’s been in statewide office longer than Blago… if she had a shot, she should be much higher.

And the ads are speaking to both Dems and independents. That’s the point.

Blago’s campaign strategy is nearly identical to Bush Cheney ‘04. We didn’t see much of their anti-Kerry ads here in Illinois, but they had the same tone as Blago’s — kinda silly and funny, meant to imply the opponent doesn’t take solid stands that voters would agree with.

Comment by NW burbs Monday, Jun 26, 06 @ 10:12 am
The polls show that the attack ads are only moving voters from JBT to “Undecided.” That means she can win them back.

Blago remains stuck in the low 40s. It is doubtful whether news stories will be getting any better for him through November, but they could get much, much worse.

It remains Judy’s race to win or lose.

Comment by Bubs Monday, Jun 26, 06 @ 10:23 am
Negative ads against your opponent are part of any political run. Our local TV Blago ads are virtually all anti JBT. You would think a current office holder would be pushing the real positives they have accomplished, but I have almost never seen any from either candidate. Based on the ads, these campaigns are based on “pick me cause look how bad they are” philosophy not on accomplishments. If all you can do is point out what is wrong with your opponent (and there may be alot), what substantial options are you offering as a positive alternative? Going negative just shows how little you have to offer and having to pick the least bad of several bad options doesn’t inspire confidence.

Comment by zatoichi Monday, Jun 26, 06 @ 10:38 am
While myself and a couple of others were explaining how those early ads were going to be effective at laying the groundwork for the campaign to come and effective at driving down her numbers and not too early, tha majority of posters to this site were talking about how idiotic they were. Now that her numbers have been driven down more than ten points (which is the purpose of the campaign, not to improve his #’s), I’m just waiting for those posters to acknowledge that they were wrong and that the ads are working.

Bueller….Bueller…

Maybe I’ll have to wait until November…

Comment by ChicagoCynic Monday, Jun 26, 06 @ 10:58 am
We can all see that Rod is trying to frame the race as a choice going forward, not a referendum on his term - a referendum he would be sure to lose. We’ll just have to see if that works.

But it is telling that after three and one-half years in office, he obviously thinks the only way to win is to smear his opponent with distortionate ads.

But three other points.

1. What good is a ten point shift from JBT to undecided (as that is all that his millions have accomplished) in May and June when she has four months to win it back, especially when Rod is using ads that distort the facts, so she can flip them on him in the end, such as at debates? It doesn’t seem THAT smart.

2. Going negative out of the box certainly did not improve the Governor’s profile, as his numbers did not budge, and it sure could use some improvement. (They always have been a bunch of liars, but now they are a bunch of nasty liars, etc.) That’s good strategy?

3. If JBT could survive the fusillade of mud that the Oberweis Disgustoids threw at her, she can muddle through this.

Comment by Bubs Monday, Jun 26, 06 @ 11:20 am
JBT cannot respond because she does not have the campaign funds to match the Governor. While I consider the ad campaign sophmoric, it does remind traditional republican voters why JBT is vulnerable. To that extent, JBT’s fundraising efforts will be repressed and the Governor will be able to press his monetary advantage into the fall.

Comment by Middle Majority Monday, Jun 26, 06 @ 11:39 am
It might of been working to an extent but now that almost every news outlet in the state is carrying the story plus 2 I have read comes on as a complete fabrication and lie that is being told by them.Will this in the end hurt future campaigning by this bunch as a distortion of thier facts? In other words the real people are reading the truth about Blago’s campaign.

Comment by DOWNSTATE Monday, Jun 26, 06 @ 12:31 pm
Telling lies is not ‘heavy handed’?

Rod will be all positive after Labor Day. He wants to sit back and let JBT do all the negative stuff and then say “See? All she can do is criticize. No plan, no ideas.”

JBT better be very positive about herself and her intentions after Labor Day. Offer up a few ‘reminders’ of Blah-Blah’s antics with taxpayer’s money, but let the media and blogs distribute the day-to-day dirt. She should rip him to shreds in debates, but be positive in TV and radio ads.

Comment by Anonymous Monday, Jun 26, 06 @ 12:49 pm
I think it’s pretty obvious why you don’t see much JBT response; she’s only got a tenth of the money Rod has. T.V. time’s expensive, and Judy’s got to conserve for the stretch run…..

Comment by Downstate Surveyor Monday, Jun 26, 06 @ 1:47 pm
Bubs,

You asked “What good is a ten point shift from JBT to undecided (as that is all that his millions have accomplished) in May and June when she has four months to win it back, especially when Rod is using ads that distort the facts, so she can flip them on him in the end, such as at debates? It doesnâ€™t seem THAT smart.”

The answer is pretty clear. As we all know, JBT has a wonderful tendency to say whatever pops into her head at any given moment. It’s part of why the media generally likes her - she’s colorful and quirky. But that tendency from the Spring campaign has allowed Rod to do these little hit and run ads that define her as not quirky, but strange with odd views. They have laid the groundwork for what can reasonably be expected to be a whole lot of other statements that her campaign team will cringe over as soon as she opens her mouth. So the tag line of “What’s she thinking” works perfectly to plant seeds in voters’ minds and remind people that she’s not all sweetness and light. When the campaign gets hot and heavy in the fall, Rod’s people will be able to capitalize on that idea and bury her with her own words. That’s when the payoff comes.

I generally am not a big Axelrod fan, but it’s pretty darned smart strategy if you ask me.

Comment by ChicagoCynic Monday, Jun 26, 06 @ 3:28 pm
Bubs, Thank you for the coherent comments and insight. They are much better to read than the Golly gee Rod is doing so much damage to JBT with his ads comments.

ChicagoCynic: You state “As we all know, JBT has a wonderful tendency to say whatever pops into her head at any given moment.” That sounds a lot like the Gov, except he pops off with Press Releases. Not much difference there, except when GRod announces a pander PR it is to boost his sagging numbers.

JBT may or may not be sitting out due to cash, but what she may be doing is letting GRod pile up stupid untruthful attack ads. What a nice pile of ammo to use against Honest Rod down the road. Lenin once said that capitalists are dumb enough to buy the rope from you that you are going to use to hang them. Rod has been using that philosophy since he began amassing his warchest. Honest Rod and crew aren’t that smartest gang around. They have bought a pile of rope with that $15 million.

Comment by Papa Legba Monday, Jun 26, 06 @ 4:30 pm
I must have missed something. The only one I saw that I said, “hey, that’s not really fair” was the Judy presided over the accumulation of a $5 billion deficit. That wasn’t really fair, but not surprising. Otherwise, which of the ads was actually untrue? I don’t mean the ones that may be misleading - that’s pretty much par for political attack ads - but demonstrably untrue. I’m not disputing it, but all the ads I saw used her words. Did I miss one?

Comment by ChicagoCynic Monday, Jun 26, 06 @ 5:14 pm
CC-

I can see the strategy, but you have to question how much personally negative points will work in the long run on a known quantity that has run statewide three times, has won three times, and is genuinely liked - outside of certain elements of the Republican Party, of course. I think Oberweis ran into the same problem. The people already know her, and know that she is brassy.

It’s having an effect solely because she is not even on the field yet. But I remind you that there are no roses for leading the Kentucky Derby at the 1/4 mile pole. You have to be ahead at the end.

Comment by Bubs Monday, Jun 26, 06 @ 5:17 pm
Yeah, thatâ€™s what sheâ€™s doing, waiting it out. Looking for the perfect opportunity to fire off both barrels. Brilliance, shear brilliance.

I donâ€™t know why Rod is wasting his time or his money; Judy has this race in the bag. Plus, there is going to be indictments.

But seriously folks; Judy is in way over her head. No money, no ideas, and no help. It doesnâ€™t cost money to release a statement. It doesnâ€™t take money to come up with a plan. If Rodâ€™s ads are distorted and false, why doesnâ€™t she speak up and defend herself?

Comment by B Hicks Monday, Jun 26, 06 @ 5:20 pm
Why waste money when Rod is spinning his wheels? He has his core support locked up and will not get much more support. Look at the polls. If JBT’s support is going undecided and not to Rod then what is the big harm by letting him spend his money? As surely the sun will come up tomorow, Rod is a lock to screw up big time trying to get Judy to screw up. She is too smart and he is too stupid. I put the over/under of number of big screw-ups from Rod at three before November.

Comment by Papa Legba Monday, Jun 26, 06 @ 5:40 pm
AllKids will be the downfall. No funding, no applicants.

Judy did not preside over the accumulation of a $5 billion deficit. She is the treasurer, she pays the bills, period. She does not have any influence over the accumulation of debt. She just has to figure out a way to pay for it.

Has anyone not looked at Milarod or heard him speak and not think “Alfred E. Newman.” And who brags about a “C” average in law school in 2006 America. And some of you think Judy is odd and weird?

Comment by Anon Monday, Jun 26, 06 @ 5:48 pm
I’m waiting for JBT’s response.

Perhaps they are taking a more grassroots approach - i.e. reaching out to the GOP supporters. I live a few blocks from her campaign office in Springfield - I see people moving about whenever I drive down the street.

The signs are up - but are they open?

Comment by Marta Elena Monday, Jun 26, 06 @ 5:52 pm
Where is Judy? She’s in 100% fundraisng mode, of course.

See, she isn’t selling jobs, contracts, legislation (and lord knows what else - somebody check on the Mansion) for the highest contribution to raise millions for her campaign. So it takes some work.

This blog hysteria from the Blago people is actually getting humorous. We haven’t reached JULY yet, and they are acting like the leaves are falling from the trees . . . on cue from Blago HQ.

Why not go enjoy your summer, boys? Fall will arrive eventually. Oh, yes, it’s coming.

Comment by Bubs Monday, Jun 26, 06 @ 6:05 pm
You Springfield Republicans are so funny. Your pretty little candidate might win over a few independent voters, but I have this funny little feeling that the right wing of her party is going to sit this one out. Iâ€™ve been in bars and restaurants from Pittsfield Illinois, to Beardstown, to Chandlerville, and to Bath. I have several friends that are gun loving, flag loving, and church going conservatives. I can assure you that they are not voting for Judy. Theyâ€™re not voting for Rod, but theyâ€™re definitely not voting for her.

How about that Gay Pride Parade?

Itâ€™s over honey; get me the hell out of here!

Your’re right, it is humorous.

Comment by B Hicks Monday, Jun 26, 06 @ 6:16 pm
Bubs- you’re on here more than anyone else. What are you talking about?

I think that you’re the one that’s nervous.

Comment by B Hicks Monday, Jun 26, 06 @ 6:18 pm
Oh goody, here we go again, Hicks is stalking me. I’m so flattered, I really am.

Eleven whole minutes this time - Hickie, you are improving!

Comment by Bubs Monday, Jun 26, 06 @ 6:55 pm
Gay pride parade one half million votes.Wake up Hicks you are in a state that both canidates believe in gay rights.

Comment by DOWNSTATE Monday, Jun 26, 06 @ 8:43 pm
Chill out, Nancy. Iâ€™m sure that the private sector will hold something for you.

Comment by B Hicks Monday, Jun 26, 06 @ 9:27 pm