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Fun with numbers

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* From a Reboot Illinois piece on redistricting…

It’s just corrupt, isn’t it? This game is legal, but it’s also corrupt. It’s not fair. It leads to little competition, little turnover and little change in party leadership. If the fix is in before any of us even go to the polls to vote, how can we expect the elected officials whose salaries we’re paying to pay attention to us?

This is why we need to change the process. No process is perfect, but several other states like Ohio and California and others have changed theirs. And Reboot Illinois is working with CHANGE Illinois! to try to improve our map-making process.

* OK, according to the Council of State Governments/Midwest, Illinois’ legislative turnover rate after the 2012 remap election was 23.7 percent. But Ohio’s was just 14.4 percent.

Hmm.

* California, meanwhile, has term limits and an open primary system as well as a reformed redistricting process. The result…

For the first time, California had an open primary system in which the top two candidates, regardless of party, advanced to November. And they ran in districts drawn by a nonpartisan commission instead of by lawmakers protecting their own safe seats.

The result was 38 new Assembly members, 9 new state Senators

California’s Assembly actually has fewer members than Illinois’ House - 80 - so its 38 new Assembly members equals a 47.5 turnover rate. Illinois has 118 House members and 25 new members, for a 21 percent turnover rate - worse than California’s.

California has 40 Senators, so 8 new members equals a 20 percent turnover rate. Illinois has 59 Senators, so 16 new Senators equals a 27 percent turnover rate - better than California’s, despite their laws.

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, May 22, 13 @ 11:35 am

Comments

Rich, have you read any of the extensive reports on how the map redrawing process in California was undermined by political operatives. quite illuminating. I think your skepticism is fine, but please don’t tell me you actually support the travesty in our state re redistricting.

Comment by Jim Wednesday, May 22, 13 @ 11:40 am
===you actually support the travesty in our state re redistricting. ===

I do not. At all.

However, the voters spoke a few years ago when they overwhelmingly voted to keep the Constitution intact.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, May 22, 13 @ 11:43 am
Also, this was merely posted in order to show how the spin doesn’t really match up with the reality.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, May 22, 13 @ 11:44 am
The numbers are fun to play with no doubt, and I am not convinced that redistricting would have a giant impact on turnover. However it couldn’t hurt anything to get some fresh air in Illinois on the Map making process. The last attempt at reforming the map that was headed up by Kwame Raoul was a farce, and the total lack of legitimate attempts at reform of any sort is frustrating. In fact, I think open primaries would do more to bring turnover than anything to do with the map.

Comment by John A Logan Wednesday, May 22, 13 @ 11:46 am
I’m a Republican but whining over redistricting is overplayed. The party should have been able to win in 2010 and is using this as an excuse not to make changes to its agenda, leadership and messaging.

If the editorial boards don’t like the political establishment they can do what the new york times started doing to moderate republicans 40 years ago and start throwing their barrels of ink at them until they drown them out.

Comment by Shore Wednesday, May 22, 13 @ 11:48 am
Wasn’t some of that turnover in the 2012 the result of Repubs being drawn out of their districts by the new Dem-drawn map? I bet the 2014 elections will show us a much more stable and incumbent-friendly result.

Comment by Ray del Camino Wednesday, May 22, 13 @ 11:51 am
” In fact, I think open primaries would do more to bring turnover than anything to do with the map.”

This is probably true, but the gerrymandering of districts has such an overwhelming appearance of impropriety that that *should* be changed, too. Having things look fair is nearly as important as things actually being fair, as the appearance is hard to overcome–if it looks rigged to the average person, it’s hard to convince them otherwise.

Comment by Chris Wednesday, May 22, 13 @ 11:52 am
Just to correct Reboot Illinois - Ohio’s current map was drawn pretty much the same way Illinois’ was - the party that controlled the legislature and the governor’s mansion (in Ohio’s case that was the Republican party) drew the map to benefit themselves.

There have been some redistricting reform proposals in Ohio in recent years, including a ballot referendum that failed in 2012 and legislation that’s still being debated, but nothing has really been changed.

California is another story, but even California’s reforms have proven vulnerable to partisan tampering, see - http://www.propublica.org/article/how-democrats-fooled-californias-redistricting-commission

Comment by so... Wednesday, May 22, 13 @ 11:52 am
They Brady-Clarke map of 2011 is killing the GOP but mot as much as we are killing ourselves.

That said, turnover isn’t the best measure as people retire and move on for reasons unconnected to the map (for instance look at the impending exodus of Republicans in both caucuses). Reelect rate is probably better.

Comment by marky mark Wednesday, May 22, 13 @ 11:53 am
The art and science of gerrymandering continues to advance, but the map isn’t the be-all, end-all.

Communities change, demographics change, political parties change, voter attitudes change.

The map certainly isn’t the sole reason Democrats have a super-majority in the GA. And, obviously, it doesn’t explain how Pat Quinn was elected governor.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, May 22, 13 @ 12:01 pm
I aspire to have Illinois follow California’s lead in many ways. Oh wait, no I don’t.

Comment by Aaron Wednesday, May 22, 13 @ 12:14 pm
How much of Illinois’ map was drawn with the purpose of eliminating some Members (Republicans) in order to replace them with others (Democrats). Maybe that is why Illinois’ turnover rate is so high.

Comment by Just Me Wednesday, May 22, 13 @ 12:16 pm
A 47.5% turnover rate is pretty good, sure it might have been as much in the California Senate, but nearly 50% turnover is astounding! (and was nearly double ours). However, one would have to dig deeper into the numbers to find out if the map had much to do with the turnover.

I’m also interested in seeing how California’s government works over the next several years since the new system was designed to produce more moderates in the GA.

Comment by Ahoy! Wednesday, May 22, 13 @ 12:45 pm
The 2012 general election, despite being the first election after redistricting, had precious little competition for the General Assembly. Fully 56% (99)of the 177 seats were uncontested. Not even a Green appeared on the ballot. Does anyone doubt that skillful gerrymandering had something to do with it?

Comment by reformer Wednesday, May 22, 13 @ 12:45 pm
===Not even a Green appeared on the ballot. Does anyone doubt that skillful gerrymandering had something to do with it? ===

Um, I think that says more about the Greens.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, May 22, 13 @ 12:47 pm
having done significant political work in ohio, i can’t understand this statement at all. in fact, i have said many times that ohio’s redistricting process is the republican mirror image of illinois’. the voters of ohio overwhelmingly rejected an initiative in 2010 that would’ve created a nonpartisan map-drawing commission. so a state that voted for obama has a state senate and house where republicans have a super-majority (giving it significant procedural advantages) and a 16-person congressional delegation with 12 Rs and 4 Ds. the process in both IL and OH is completely broken and effects us on both the state and federal level. reboot has the bottom line right but they lose all credibility with the OH comparison.

Comment by lakeviewlawyer Wednesday, May 22, 13 @ 12:54 pm
Boy, golfing on Election Day looks pretty foolish about now …

Wait, it looked pretty foolish then, AND now.

The reality was Bill Brady was the “safety valve” and we in the ILGOP blew it, and we have no one to blame but ourselves, and Medinah, Course #3, right “Two Putt”?

I love “Map” discussions.

Michael J. Madigan and the HDems, under a “Republican” map went …4-1.

Here endeth the Lesson.

I do not believe in Term Limits. We have “term limits” ever 2 to 4 years. If the Dems want a Repub out, or visa-versa, do the work, and win the day.

Madigan pummeling Daniels in the South Suburbs in 1996 and regaining the Majority, and not giving it up since speaks more to MJM and the inept HGOP than it speaks to any map, including the current “Clarke Map”.

Great posting Rich.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, May 22, 13 @ 12:58 pm
Reboot Illinois/Change Illinois - both political wannabes with no idea how to organize a petition drive for a state constitutional amendment.

Again, a bunch of rich neophytes pretending they represent the little people. When in fact they are just wasting time and money.

These two groups as a whole apparently have not done their homework on the realities and/or past failures of this type of effort. Not to mention the history of the GOP failures starting back in 1996. If they did, they might understand the many reasons that the GOP has become so inconsequential.

Here a few of those reasons: lack of leadership, lack of talent, lack of discipline, lack of a cohesive message, lack of coalition development and more – much more.

Furthermore, I agree with you Rich, the voters have spoken in 2010 and 2012 despite the Griffins frivolous and incompetent attempts to fund mediocre Illinois tea party groups, less than effective think tanks and the ever faltering GOP.

Comment by Wishful thinking Wednesday, May 22, 13 @ 1:11 pm
Redistricting, across the country, has “hardened” most congressional districts, so they are either strong R or D. As a result, our Congressional candidates have the best chance of holding their seat by running to the extreme of their particular district. Don’t look for bi-partisanship to break out in Washington anytime soon. Redistricting produces exactly the opposite effect.

Comment by Downstate Wednesday, May 22, 13 @ 1:36 pm
I think Reboot’s intentions are good but the actual amendment is overly detailed and complex for the average voter or a document like the constitution and I still don’t think it will solve the underlying problem of a perception of un-representative government. We’d be better off moving all 177 GA members into the Senate and then seating a statistically representative group of citizens in the same way that juries are picked. They’d be a more informed and active citizen check-and-balance on the elected professional lawmakers. That’d be a better goal for Reboot to reach for if you want better representation.

Comment by thechampaignlife Wednesday, May 22, 13 @ 1:58 pm
I actually could support an open primary system but with that said, I think it’s rhetorically dangerous to use the word “corrupt” when referring to things that don’t involve actual corruption. The laws are what they are, and they allow gerrymandering. It may be pandering, it may be cronyism, it may be a lot of things, but it isn’t really corruption. It’s heightens society’s anxiety about politics and politicians in general and maybe that’s warranted, but to infer there are illegal acts involved is just plain wrong. Change the law instead.

Corrupt
Adjective
Having or showing a willingness to act dishonestly in return for money or personal gain.

Comment by Joe Bidenopolous Wednesday, May 22, 13 @ 2:04 pm
The Maps will always favor Democrats until The problem in Cook co. is solved. Imagine the GOP drawing a map that shrinks 2 black districts into one. (any district) Our state is run by Cook co. There is no GOP in Cook co because of the township and ward committeeman system. There is no chance for the GOP to compete until something is done. I know Rich or someone else will say “Then go into their community and try for those votes” I have been! That could work;there are thousands of african americans who are sick and tired of the way things are but you have to go through the parties. Our system is based on two parties if a ward elects their Republican committeemen with 30 votes what chance does anyone have to run or bring change? The committeeman is really a Democrat they don’t try to expand the party they don’t try to find candidates; thats why they are in that position. When the county with the most of your parties votes is run by your opposition and your parties representatives in it are also put in place by your opposition, the deck is stacked. It has NOTHING to do with our stand on issues,look at the split in the black community on SSM.

Comment by votecounter Wednesday, May 22, 13 @ 2:31 pm
The Rebooters just give me a migraine. Pardon the lack of insight here, but I’m just stating a fact. I can’t read that tripe any more.

Comment by Arthur Andersen Wednesday, May 22, 13 @ 3:37 pm