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Duckworth not a target

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Illinois

* Tammy Duckworth won by ten points last year, so this isn’t much of a surprise…

House Republican leaders don’t have Rep. Tammy Duckworth in their sights.

In a state where four of the five Democrats newly elected to Congress last year have been targeted for defeat, Ms. Duckworth is not a high GOP priority — at least for now. […]

The NRCC laid out its priorities for the 2014 election at a briefing for reporters Wednesday.

Among them is the re-election of freshman Rep. Rodney Davis, R-Taylorville, who narrowly won his downstate seat last year by only about 1,000 votes. […]

Among 52 Democrats targeted for defeat nationwide, the four from Illinois are Reps. Brad Schneider of Deerfield, Cheri Bustos of East Moline, William Enyart of Belleville and Bill Foster of Naperville, who previously served in Congress from March 2008 to January 2011.

Schneider will face Bob Dold in a rematch, and Bustos will also likely face a rematch against Bobby Schilling. Foster won by 17 points, but he showed in 2010 that he can be a very weak incumbent. Still, that’ll be tough.

And I don’t think this guy will be the “backed” GOP candidate against Enyart, unless they can’t find anybody else…

An O’Fallon veteran and former sports journalist has announced his intention to run for congressman in the 12th District as a Republican.

Doug Bucshon, a 20-year veteran of the Illinois Army National Guard, has never held a political office. After his retirement from active duty, he has worked as a sports journalist covering University of Illinois basketball and football.

His campaign slogan is “Change the Future.”

Word is that the GOPs are hoping to recruit state Rep. Mike Bost.

posted by Rich Miller
Friday, May 24, 13 @ 10:05 am

Comments

“Word is that the GOPs are hoping to recruit state Rep. Mike Bost.”

Oh please don’t tease us. Too good to be true that angry hothead could be purged from politics so easily.

Comment by too obvious Friday, May 24, 13 @ 10:12 am
Couple thoughts;

Duckworth not a target. There has been nothing, since winning in that new district, that has anyone logically looking at that seat as “in-play”

Agreed, Bustos, Schneider, and Davis are all on a “Watch” list, especially with re-matches that seem to be aligning for Bustos and Schneider.

A “wonderful” rollout of Davis’ opponent, a judge from the Metro East, who, as of today, is very media and interview savy, makes this race “interesting”, but can either muster the Ground Game, either to exicte Dems against Davis. or ignite the GOP to retain a hard fought seat for an Incumbent with some more “open baggage”.

As for Foster, Foster will get someone, but the totals, and Foster knowing what its like to win…then lose …then win again… the GOP is going to face an energized Incumbentnot wanting to face ouster again.

Now, the 12th District, Enyart won by 9 points and even in an off-year, 9 points is a big hill to climb. The Candidate, and how “local” that GOP Nominee makes the race, given Obama is off the ballot both as a Native Son and POTUS, that will quickly decide how much of a chance the GOP has, which is slim at best, today.

I have no clue as to Bost’s intention or even interest. It’s too much to even speculate, for me, without knowing of a true interest in running against an Incumbent, who will be funded well enough to counter Bost, and Bost might even face a Primary for Congress, who knows…too many moving parts to think about Bost in a Congressional race.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, May 24, 13 @ 10:21 am
Glad today that the DCCC picked a madison county chief judge instead of one from st clair county to run in the 13th. Yikes.

Comment by hisgirlfriday Friday, May 24, 13 @ 10:31 am
Bucshon’s brother is a congressman from southern Indiana.

Comment by Fire Anita Alvarez Friday, May 24, 13 @ 10:32 am
I understand that Duckworth is almost assuredly a safe incumbent, but you have to think that just out and out giving up on challenging her seriously is going to be a huge mistake. The state GOP is failing miserably largely because they’ve lost huge amounts of support in the collar counties. You’d think that they’d be all for running moderate candidates up there, even if they have zero chance at winning, against safe Dem incumbents just to keep their message coming across voters in the area.

Dems will always win Chicago, the GOP will always win downstate, and statewide elections will continue to be won and lost based on how the suburbs vote. Thowing in the towel on a suburban congressional district seems extremely counterintuitive for the GOP. They should be all in trying to challenge Duckworth knowing full well that they’re almost assuredly going to lose for the greater good of their party.

Comment by TJ Friday, May 24, 13 @ 10:38 am
===Dems will always win Chicago, the GOP will always win downstate, and statewide elections will continue to be won and lost based on how the suburbs vote.===

Ignorant statement.

Chicago and Cook are losing statewide races for the GOP for a lack of winning the “needed” percentage in Chicago/Cook and those benchmarks are not met, consistently.

Even if Downstate pulls out the stops for the GOP, and the “Collars” meet their thresholds, it has been Chicago and cook missing the marks set as the needed percentages, be they from Jim Thompson, Edgar, Ryan, Kirk, Topinka, and Rutherford.

Bill Brady lost, not in just the surburbs, Brady lost by not meeting the thresholds necessary in Chicago and Cook. Four more votes a precinct in Cook and Chicago, and you have a Governor Brady.

You point is “hollow” when looking at the numbers necessary to win, and a bit lazy just saying Chicago, Downstate, and Suburbs and the term “always”.

To know what you need to win, to to plan TO win.

With respect.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, May 24, 13 @ 10:52 am
But isn’t that the point? If the GOP gives up on a suburban electoral race, that’s not going to do them any good for their statewide campaigns. Retreating in the suburbs is going to lead to them getting shellacked overall statewide.

The point is that they’re only going to be able to squeeze so many votes south of Kankakee, and that alone isn’t enough to win the entire state.

Comment by TJ Friday, May 24, 13 @ 10:54 am
===If the GOP gives up on a suburban electoral race, that’s not going to do them any good for their statewide campaigns.===

Schneider/Dold is a suburban race and in an area rich with Independent voters who can look at that race and other races on the ballot and help, if a Ground Game exists.

The Bustos seat opens up the Quad Cities for the GOP where in the General Assembly there are Democrats, and the GOP could use some help of a competitive Congressional seat in that region.

Wasting resources for a Congressional seat that can be used for a state Senate seat or a state House seat makes more sense in helping, even statewide races, but it comes down to a Ground Game and making the elections local, and you don’t need to do that in races that just aren’t going to matter to the voters, but in races where actual toss-ups bring energy to the voting public.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, May 24, 13 @ 11:06 am
An energized Bill Foster? can’t wait to see what that might look like, but I probably never will since he never visits his district. I’ll watch for it on CSPAN

Comment by Pick2 Friday, May 24, 13 @ 11:13 am
- Pick2 -,

Well, I will say this, you win a race, you lose a race, then you win again, that is a pretty big motivator, and I guess winning by 15 points, and Foster’s appearances versus his “opponents” appearances last election would point to someone more energized, and I give you its a low bar, but Foster met it and then some.

I keep lloking in that district, and I have yet to see a GOP possibility that can even MEET that low bar that was set last cycle, so I guess the pressure is on the GOP to foce the issue, and I am not seeing a sense of urgency to take on Foster, nor do I see a candidate for the GOP that can FORCE that urgency on Foster…

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, May 24, 13 @ 11:24 am
Times do change. Not too long ago, Duckworth getting a pass in that district and Foster winning his by 17 would have been unimaginable.

Comment by wordslinger Friday, May 24, 13 @ 11:29 am
@TJ - Just my opinion but I would guess the GOP is better off for statewide races just not running anyone against duckworth than actually pouring money into that seat behind a candidate like walsh who makes the gop look bad and turns off the very suburban vote you think so crucial to the gops chances in the govs race.

Comment by hisgirlfriday Friday, May 24, 13 @ 11:46 am
- Oswego Willy - Friday, May 24, 13 @ 10:52 am:

Spot on, Willy. While every vote counts, there are only two counties that have double digit percentages of the vote in a Republican primary. About 160k votes come from Cook, about 100k from DuPage. The next nearer counties are Lake and Will with about 50k each

Comment by Cincinnatus Friday, May 24, 13 @ 11:49 am
- hisgirlfriday -, very well said, and thought out.

- Cincinnatus -,

Thanks. As you know, “Baking the cake” that is called winning statewide, as a Republican, is a “cake” that has many “ingredients”, including specific benchmarks in Chicago and Cook, and DuPage and the Collars meeting different benchmarks as well.

Foster or Duckworth having an opponent, or even a race does NOT changes those “ingredients” one bit. The only thing those races do, is allow the GOP Nominee to look at how much of a “ground game” is being generated, and how much more of a “ground game” is needed to win.

For a statewide, … that’s it. That is the only factor,a nd it just becomes a “How” question, and not a “Who” question to get those voters out.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, May 24, 13 @ 11:58 am
heehee… whoever the GOP picks may not be the final “real” candidate anyhow. Just take a page out of the Dem’s book last year.

By the way, anyone ever check on the health of Mr. Harriman?

Comment by Keep Calm and Carry On Friday, May 24, 13 @ 12:09 pm
foster sits in a more democratic district than when he lost, plus he lost during a gop wave. i don’t think anyone expects a republican wave in 2014, especially in illinois…

Comment by bored now Friday, May 24, 13 @ 12:27 pm
Bored/ow

1. Foster beat oberweis. Does that really count for much?
2. Kirk, Brady, Rutherford, Topinka, etc won fosters district in 2010. Mid-term elections are a lot different than presidentials. Remember, halvorson won by 17 points in 2008 then lost by about the same margin 2 years later.

Comment by Devices Friday, May 24, 13 @ 12:34 pm
Um…

Foster beat “Congresswoman Biggert”.

Good luck with comparing a race that was 6 years ago, (Oberweis v. Foster, circa 2008…lol), and a different district that is drawn NOW which is NOT “Coach’s” old seat.

Yikes!

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, May 24, 13 @ 12:39 pm
==@TJ - Just my opinion but I would guess the GOP is better off for statewide races just not running anyone against duckworth than actually pouring money into that seat behind a candidate like walsh who makes the gop look bad and turns off the very suburban vote you think so crucial to the gops chances in the govs race. ==

True, running no one is better than running a divisive candidate that has no shot of winning and is almost certain to cause blowback to the party by stuffing his foot in his mouth, but that’s why I said they should try to run moderate candidates up there instead. By not actively supporting a moderate candidate there, they’re just asking for some fringe lunatic to win the primary and then be the official face of the party against Duckworth and be a new source of talking points over how out of touch the GOP is with Illinoisans.

By actively supporting a moderate candidate against Duckworth, it decreases significantly the odds of a Walsh-like candidate running the party’s image into the ground in the district and being used as an example statewide against them, keeps that district’s party structure and organization in place for the next election that actually matters.

Not saying flush millions down the toilet on a lost cause, but do enough to have a halfway respectable showing while keeping your machine there oiled up for the next senatorial and gubernatorial races. That’s far better than starting from scratch in the next election while the Dem organization is running strong, not to mention that it keeps Duckworth honest and would at least partially force her to spend time in-district rather than being able to go state- and nationwide campaigning for other Dems.

Comment by TJ Friday, May 24, 13 @ 12:50 pm
@ Devices - Foster beat Uberweis in a GOP district.

That says as much about Foster as it does about how divisive the Ice Cream man is.

The old district was drawn by the GOP for the GOP.

The new district was drawn by Dems to more accurately reflect the Democratic lean of the state.

Comment by G. Willickers Friday, May 24, 13 @ 1:01 pm
- TJ -,

When you find that candidate willing to waste their time and run against Duckworth, I hope My Party focuses on the Moderate/Competetive IL House and IL Senate seats that ARE in play, and use every resource available to have the largest impact, in winning seats.

I am no conceding Duckworth, I am targeting better opportunities to make a significant differnece in a place that needs it, the General Assembly.

Further,

A “Dope” Nominee, running against Duckworth, for the sake of the statewides will have ZERO impact on a “Gground Game” or turnout.

My Party needs to focus on things it can be successful in, and build upon those successes to forge even greater successes.

If you want someone to run against Duckworth, “roll the dice and take your chances”. The timing isn’t right to make a serious run, the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee seems to agree too, so have at it, I won’t stop you, that’s for sure. For me, I am going to focus on Dold/Schneider, taking out Bustos, and retaining Davis. Money spent well in these congressional seats will make more of an impact then wasting my time or money with Duckworth.

But, if you feel it’s important, I won’t stop you.

Good luck.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, May 24, 13 @ 1:01 pm
Duckworth is “not safe” shes an incredibly weak candidate who can not articulate a message, think quickly or do things other than what her staff did for her in that last race. the district is roughly as democratic as il 10, and walsh was a fool who people decades from now will still be wondering how he ever won office. She can be beaten but the republican party has to engage in the state.

Peter Roskam has gotten an awful lot of favorable press and yet he’s suffered a string of congressional defeats in districts around his. He needs to start justifying the hype he’s gotten all these years.

Comment by shore Friday, May 24, 13 @ 1:17 pm
- Shore -

I am not going to stop you. Go for it.

Recognize the “challenges” you are facing, as you list all the positives;

Duckworth has stronger name ID now, her polling has been good, and so good, that with her win against Joe Walsh, the Repub. Congressional Campaign Committee took her off the list of targets.

The district leans more Left than when Joe Walsh first won. This candidate needs a boatload of cash, as Duckworth will never be begging for cash for the forseeable future.

You are going to need a huge groundswell of support for the candidate, in a short time and build a field operation to get voters out to beat, …an incumbent, wounded veteran, female minority, who really hasn’t made too many errors to put her on the national radar for defeat.

I am all for it, - Shore -, have at it.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, May 24, 13 @ 1:30 pm
–Peter Roskam has gotten an awful lot of favorable press and yet he’s suffered a string of congressional defeats in districts around his.–

Shore, how does Roskam wear the jacket for Walsh and Biggert?

Comment by wordslinger Friday, May 24, 13 @ 1:34 pm
I didn’t quite understand or buy into your Roskam comment either, shore–assuming I understood what you were trying to say. Perhaps my interpretation was wrong because it didn’t make any sense.

Comment by Anonymous Friday, May 24, 13 @ 2:27 pm