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Question of the day

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Illinois

* Which of the following legislative issues do you think will be resolved one way or another by May 31st?…

* 1 - Pension reform

* 2 - Gay marriage

* 3 - Concealed carry

* 4 - Gaming expansion

* 5 - Budget

* 6 - Fracking

* 7 - McCormick Place expansion

* Take the poll and vote for as many as you think will pass, then please explain your answers in comments.

online polls

posted by Rich Miller
Sunday, May 26, 13 @ 3:18 pm

Comments

33 voters so far and no comments? Can’t you read the rules, folks? IF the session is really going to end, we’ll have a budget and pension reform because those cans can’t be kicked any further down the road (of course we’ve said that in the past and were wrong). Gay marriage because it’s time and there’s no big money interests at stake to prevent it. Otherwise I see a lot of can kicking going on.

Comment by Ann Sunday, May 26, 13 @ 3:35 pm
I voted for all but #1 and #7. Many hot-button issues don’t pass until very late in the session, but I believe #3-#6 are all well staged to succeed. Gay marriage will make it, barely, if President Obama makes some calls to fence-sitting Black Caucus members.

I’m not convinced that the McCormick Place expansion will happen, despite the Mayor’s wishes. That seems like a pretty big ask of Chicago’s taxpayers, and I just don’t see any way the state can afford to chip in to push the plan over the top.

I continue to believe pension reform is at an impasse. Neither Madigan nor Cullerton seem willing to work their own membership to pass the other leader’s plan.

Comment by cover Sunday, May 26, 13 @ 3:37 pm
===33 voters so far and no comments? ===

There are always lots more votes than comments.

Comment by Rich Miller Sunday, May 26, 13 @ 3:38 pm
Picked about half that should make this look like a “do something” group
Plus there might be a few Capt Fax did not list.
Suprise, suprise!

Comment by CircularFiringSquad Sunday, May 26, 13 @ 3:38 pm
I think they’ll pull most of those out of the fire here at the end. Not gambling and not McCormick Place, though.

Comment by Ray del Camino Sunday, May 26, 13 @ 3:43 pm
Momentum seems to be clearly on the side of gay marriage, conceal-carry, the budget and fracking.

Pensions seem to be at a real standoff between the House and Senate.

Many powerful forces are content not to expand gaming, not the least of whom are the owners of “Rivers.”

Mac Place is late to the game. To me, it’s tied to the Chicago casino. If that’s not in place, I don’t any rush to proceed with the “basketball” stadium.

Comment by wordslinger Sunday, May 26, 13 @ 3:46 pm
Pension reform will be rammed through. Yes I am a retiree. I am sure many lawsuits will follow, especially once the media quits hiding the exemption of the Judges in all this garbage. Some kind of concealed carry will pass because they have no choice.

Comment by catch22 Sunday, May 26, 13 @ 3:48 pm
Pension reform, marriage equality, concealed carry, budget, and fracking.

On fracking/concealed carry there have been a lot of meetings, false starts, compromising, going back to the drawing board, a little of bit of movement here, backing off there, etc. and these issues are right on the front burner now with the basic ingredients agreed upon with the finality basically whether to add a dash of salt or not. I think there’s too much momentum and bill language that has been explored to not get them done by the end of session.

For marriage equality and pension reform, I think roll calls are close. For marriage, it is basically whipping a few more votes to get it done. For pension reform, I think the risk of failure will induce a backlash legislators do not want seeing as the specter of pension payments also looms large for the budget.

Comment by Precinct Captain Sunday, May 26, 13 @ 3:48 pm
Gay marriage…. because there is no financial downside to it. It’s a feel good issue.

Comment by mythoughtis Sunday, May 26, 13 @ 3:49 pm
I’d add, players such as Rocky Wirtz, Jerry Reinsdorf and the Stephens family would be just fine without a new government-financed indoor entertainment venue in the metro area.

I suspect they’ll weigh in against it, and there won’t be enough time to get the ducks in line for it, unless Chicago gets its casino license, maybe.

Comment by wordslinger Sunday, May 26, 13 @ 3:49 pm
Concealed carry because the legislature is scared to death of passing the June 9th date and Madigan wants his bill passed.

Comment by Anonymous Sunday, May 26, 13 @ 3:56 pm
I said just the budget. Smart money is always on politicians finding a reason to delay anything controversial.

Comment by Just Me Sunday, May 26, 13 @ 4:27 pm
I voted that the GA would only deal with gaming, cracking and M cC ormick expansion because these issues deal with revenue enhancement. The remaining issues are too controversial, with too much opposition from competing factions. Even on the CCW issue, assuming June 9 passes, local law enforcement will do what it needs to maintain the peace. Doesn

Comment by Cook County Commoner Sunday, May 26, 13 @ 4:49 pm
None of them.

Comment by Chavez-respecting Obamist Sunday, May 26, 13 @ 4:50 pm
Of the seven, five will be resolved. Quinn will threaten to veto at least three of them.

Comment by Wensicia Sunday, May 26, 13 @ 4:59 pm
Same vote as Cover, 1 and 7 at an impasse the rest voted through. The Cullerton bill is a sham and there’s no way the speaker will call it except if it’s poisoned.

Comment by Mouthy Sunday, May 26, 13 @ 5:08 pm
*fracking bill*

Comment by 47th Ward Sunday, May 26, 13 @ 6:51 pm
Expect an agreement on pension reform.

Expect marriage equality to be resolved by failing.

Expect fracking to pass.

Also expect Cullerton to allow a vote on Madigan’s CC. Cullerton can’t stand the heat from downstate Dems. It will pass, and Quinn will veto.

Comment by HenryVK Sunday, May 26, 13 @ 7:01 pm
–Also expect Cullerton to allow a vote on Madigan’s CC. Cullerton can’t stand the heat from downstate Dems. It will pass, and Quinn will veto.–

Given the supermajority requirement for passage, a veto would be rather perfunctory.

Comment by wordslinger Sunday, May 26, 13 @ 7:09 pm
Sure Word, but we are talking about Quinn.

Comment by HenryVK Sunday, May 26, 13 @ 7:19 pm
All will make the date but pension reform, and marriage equality. Pension reform will be done days late, and marriage won’t be called when still short on votes.

Comment by walkinfool Sunday, May 26, 13 @ 7:23 pm
===33 voters so far and no comments? ===

Think of the comments as a sample of the votes - just like the votes are a sample of the population.

Comment by Mr. Jim Lahey Sunday, May 26, 13 @ 8:43 pm
Along with CBO

Nothing will get done.

Comment by Plutocrat03 Sunday, May 26, 13 @ 9:13 pm
I voted for gay marriage, concealed carry, budget and McCormick Place. Torn about fracking, didn’t vote for it but could have.

Pensions, they have themselves tied up into such knots I don’t know where there is room to get to “yes” unless someone abjectly surrenders, and notwithstanding what some say, the 2014 pension contribution is only about $800M bigger than 2013, of course they can do a budget if they have to… and after that, per COGFA’s latest annual report on teh State Systems, the annual pension increases go way down and maybe they never do anything as it’ll now be in the baseline. Next year extend the income tax increase, done.

Could do gaming, but history argues against it.

Comment by Harry Monday, May 27, 13 @ 12:16 am
I’m surprised about some of the comments on gay marriage.

The train has left.

What are the advantages of being against it now?

Comment by wordslinger Monday, May 27, 13 @ 12:50 am
I believe that marriage equality will pass (barely), pension reform, fracking, and budget will pass. Concealed carry will be an up in the air situation.

Comment by Justin Monday, May 27, 13 @ 3:18 am
I optomistically voted for all but 4 and 7. I think the President’s open advocacy (with the possible assistance of a couple personal phone calls) behind gay marriage may push the votes needed in the Black Caucus. Everything’s on the table concerning pensions; at this point, it’s more of an arm wrestling match/game of chicken. The budget’s well on it’s way, it seems. CC has to happen, due to pressures outside the General Assembly, as does fracking, to a degree.

Gaming looks like it’s all but fallen apart, with this Lang (non)issue. McCormick expansion just entered a little late to the game, but maybe it could serve as a concession to push something else through?

Comment by Anonymous Monday, May 27, 13 @ 9:22 am
===I think the President’s open advocacy===

Aside from a statement, there has really been no advocacy. He and/or Michelle really need to engage here.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, May 27, 13 @ 10:08 am
If Pres. Obama and/or Michelle really need to engage here, it is a good indication that the same-sex marriage bill is still short the votes necessary to pass.

Methinks Obama has his own problems to deal with in DC to be worried about Illinois right now.

Comment by Howell Monday, May 27, 13 @ 10:22 am