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* It’s no surprise that Sheila Simon’s family name and her statewide position are helping her in the early polling for attorney general. But she only has 26 percent at this point. Not great. And half the electorate is undecided, although with all the men talking about a run, she’s looking good there, too. From a Celinda Lake poll…
On the initial ballot, Simon garners 26% of the vote, with
all other likely candidates in the single digitsDavid Hoffman draws 5%,
Kwame Raoul 4%,
Jesse Ruiz 2%, and Jack Franks 1%.
Fully 50% of the electorate is undecided, underscoring the room for movement in this race.
Fully 58% of the primary electorate is female, including 66% of the undecided vote. This demographic profile obviously benefits Simon as the only woman in the race.
* More…
The poll, conducted by Lake Research Partners (the same pollster used by Lisa Madigan), shows that likely Democratic primary voters have a 43 percent favorable rating of Simon (7 percent unfavorable, the remaining no opinion or unknown) and 73 percent of Democratic voters have a favorable opinion of Sheila Simon’s late father — U.S. Sen. Paul Simon.
Notice how Simon continually tries to lock herself to Lisa Madigan. She’s doing this in fundraising calls as well.
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Jun 4, 13 @ 11:34 am
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This is strictly a name recognition poll. She benefits from her dad’s name and benefits from not including her one potential rival who actually does have name recognition, Tom Dart. The Sheriff practically lives on the evening news in Chicago. He would be way ahead of her in this poll.
Comment by Frank Tuesday, Jun 4, 13 @ 11:52 am
This poll would mean more to me if Dart and / or Alvarez were included. They both have their own flaws (fundraising, internal issues, etc ) but I thought they were both still floating their names out there and being county wide office holders from Cook would give them both pretty significant name recognition for a primary.
Comment by Been There Tuesday, Jun 4, 13 @ 11:52 am
An “eary” lead? Is this a reference to her dad’s big ears?
Comment by some dude Tuesday, Jun 4, 13 @ 11:56 am
@ some dude-
Funny
Comment by other dude Tuesday, Jun 4, 13 @ 12:12 pm
Heard the Tom Cross may run. Hope not because the unions will not support him since in in bed with MJM and the pension issues. We won’t forget even though he’s been very quietly lately.
Comment by Union Man Tuesday, Jun 4, 13 @ 12:19 pm
Early polls like this are fun for buzz but don’t mean a whole lot. That could be completely soft name ID. Or maybe not. No way to tell at this point.
Comment by Will Caskey Tuesday, Jun 4, 13 @ 12:28 pm
celinda lake of lake research partners was John Kerry’s presidential campaign top strategist and pollster and was widely blamed for his defeat.
I’ve seen Raoul on the berkowitz show, he does not have the gravitas for the job. In fairness to him, no one outside his district has any idea who he is.
Comment by shore Tuesday, Jun 4, 13 @ 12:31 pm
Dart is going to run for re-election for Sheriff.
That 60 minutes interview with Anita Alvarez provides enough ammo for any candidate to turn their guns on her…
Comment by Crazy Like A Fox Tuesday, Jun 4, 13 @ 1:04 pm
Sheila is a good public servant and Lake is a very reputable pollster, but Yes, this is buzz, it is almost purely name ID, and excluding other potential candidates with likely comparable / better name ID (hint = Dart, etc.) makes it of minimal predictive value. This race will change in multiple iterations before petitions even end. Sheila may end up on top, or not.
Comment by Dave Fako Tuesday, Jun 4, 13 @ 1:04 pm
I am not particularly fond of the LG but this poll bodes well for her. Kwamie is a great guy but though he has the Obama State Senate seat, he does not havethe Obama charm. He is a hard worker but not articulate.
Simon doesn’t thrill either but her fathers name helps with hard core dems. Her biggest challenge is money. She is a poor fundraiser.
Comment by Raising Kane Tuesday, Jun 4, 13 @ 1:52 pm
I doubt Simon has any residual name ID from serving as Lt. Gov. Talk about a do-nothing job, and a dud of an occupant. The only attention she’s gotten lately is from her decision NOT to run! Maybe that’s the spike here?
Comment by Whatever Tuesday, Jun 4, 13 @ 2:00 pm
Whatever, obviously the name ID is for her father - Paul Simon. Remember? Bridge over Troubled Waters? Mrs. Robinson? Sheeesh.
;-)
Comment by Chicago Cynic Tuesday, Jun 4, 13 @ 2:12 pm
Well..at least she’s looking good somewhere
Comment by An Tuesday, Jun 4, 13 @ 2:15 pm
CC — yeah, I get it. But he hasn’t been on a ballot since 1990. Just trying to have a little fun with the fact that’s Sheila has gotten more attention from giving up the LG’s office than anything else!
Comment by Whatever Tuesday, Jun 4, 13 @ 2:25 pm
This is like Andrew Cuomo releasing a poll for the 2016 democratic nomination in which he doesn’t include Hilary Clinton or Joe Biden. (”Wow, look at that lead Cuomo has on Marty O’Malley and Deval Patrick!)
Ridiculous.
Comment by Tony Tuesday, Jun 4, 13 @ 2:49 pm
–Jack Franks 1%–
I’m guessing Ballpark Franks could top 1% in the poll.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Jun 4, 13 @ 4:08 pm
keep this list up Dems and you just might hand it to Cross.
Comment by Amalia Tuesday, Jun 4, 13 @ 5:49 pm