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* A good observation, but this has been said just about every time a governor’s race heats up…
UIS Political Studies Professor Kent Redfield agrees unity will be key, no matter how many Republicans run.
“They need to not destroy each other in the primary,” Redfield said. “You don’t need a rerun of what the GOP did to themselves nominating Mitt Romney in last presidential election. Whoever wins needs to come out of that with the ability to move to the center.”
Nobody much laid a glove on Bill Brady in 2010, mainly because hardly anybody thought he could win the primary until the end. Topinka got banged up a lot in ‘06, as did Jim Ryan in ‘02. The candidates have to be tough, of course, but they also need to draw a line someplace.
posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 2:43 pm
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In 2010, Brady won the primary with 20.26% of the vote. What was and is so disheartening is Schillerstrom dropped out a week before the primary and still got 7,420 votes. A portion of that could have swung to Dillard.
Moral, if you don’t have a realistic shot, drop out early.
Comment by Darienite Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 2:55 pm
===Whoever wins needs to come out of that with the ability to move to the center.===
The composition of recent statewide Republican primaries makes this difficult. The more conservative voters tend to vote more often than those in the middle. Somebody like Rauner needs to expand the base of GOP primary voters by bringing in more moderates. That’s got to be his whole strategy for the nomination.
It’s difficult because so many people who might vote for a moderate GOP candidate in November don’t vote in primaries. Rauner needs to give them a reason to vote in March or he doesn’t have much of a shot and whoever does end up winning the GOP race will have a long way to go to get back to the center.
Comment by 47th Ward Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 2:55 pm
I recall a certain incumbent governor being beaten up pretty badly in his primary including ads featuring Harold Washington calling him incompetent.
He appears to still be governor.
Comment by Will Caskey Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 2:59 pm
With all due respect to dr. redfield romney didn’t lose because of what was done to him in the primary, he lost because what wasn’t done to him in the primary and what he couldn’t do in the general election. No one outside of mike huckabee in 2008 challenged how a wealthy son of privilege could relate to a nation with a changing socio-economic situation. Sure enough he got to the general election and he came off as a out of touch rich guy. game over.
I would also urge dr. redfield to google the 2004 gop senate primary. the ryan stuff came out AFTER the primary and the party got stuck with alan keyes.
The party needs a vigorous in your face debate in the primary. the starting point would be the kerfuffle which caused pat brady to become a freshly minted ex state party chair. Gays, Guns, financial matters-are we the party of paul ryan tough fiscal conservatism and jim demint social conservatism or mark kirk moderation? Rauner can not complete sentences on his own. Rutherford can not talk without giggling like he’s a 6 year old watching the simpsons. Dillard struggles to say anything other than edgar and bill brady just wants you to know he’s not pat brady or jim brady or the guy that played the youngest brother in the brady bunch.
we get it. they’re all middle aged white guys who heart Ronald Reagan, hate unions and will take down madiganistan. now we need to see what else.
Comment by shore Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 3:03 pm
===Rauner needs to give them a reason to vote in March===
In other words, he needs to ignore the “base.” It really is the only way forward for the GOP. some may think it to be too risky but the candidate who refuses to pander to the rabid just might win in November.
Comment by Deep South Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 3:05 pm
Perhaps Speaker Madigan will take it easy on his old friend Pat Quinn.
And vice versa.
Comment by Formerly Known As... Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 3:09 pm
CousinBrucey has commited a major mistake — he is advertising on Drudge. Capt Fax will really be anippy now
Comment by CircularFiringSquad Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 3:10 pm
===Schillerstrom dropped out a week before the primary and still got 7,420 votes. A portion of that could have swung to Dillard.===
Please stop …just stop with the “Poor Dillard”.
193 Votes and NO Field Organization. Dillard lost because dillard was not prepared to WIN four years ago.
It wasn’t Jim Ryan, it wasn’t Schillerstrom, it wasn’t anything but not having a good idea who were his “pluses” and getting his voters out with a field organization.
Its 2014, we all need to not relive 2010.
To the Post,
Rauner is going to go “nuclear”, and that is good. If I were the other 3 candidates, I would just hammer on Rauner, and as I hammer on Rauner, use HIS campaign to make YOUR point.
Why?
Rauner has to go “nuclear”, he has no base of operation, no constituency to run from, and as of today, no field organization strong enough to even have a “fly-around”. Rauner is going to be on TV, blasting everyone and their brother, so, use that against him, all the while not damaging the other 2 candidates and the 3 others, well, they can make their case and not ding the others up.
If Bruce Rauner HAD a base, this would not be possible, and Rauner would not have to go “nuclear” so quickly and so harshly, so use the differences with Rauner to define, and do not attack the others. Use that “nuclear” to your advantage.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 3:21 pm
===In other words, he needs to ignore the “base.”===
Yes, to an extent, but certainly not entirely. And he can only do so if he has a very, very good GOTV plan for those voters who tend to skip primaries in non-presidential years.
Comment by 47th Ward Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 3:26 pm
That’s always good advice, for we all know what the Greatest GOP Leader of all Time said about what happens when a “House” becomes divided against itself…! Yet, ya still have to wonder just really what the chances ARE for the GOP Candidate who emerges to succeed, unless he’s a bit more moderate, ala more along the lines of “Big” Jim or Jim Edgar, with at least DEcent appeal beyond Downstate…unLESS, of course, the DEMocrats bloody each other up, which now that Daley is tootin’ HIS own horn about runnin’ again, AND how MJM’s inaction and fleeing from the Governor and Media since the Session ended to show even ANY grain of good faith on resolving the Pensions Mess he personally helped significantly to create over the Decades of Springfield Inaction, seems indicative of an underhanded motive on Madigan’s part to deliberately orchestrate a result to make the Governor look bad so he can help pave the way for his own Daughter to run/try to look better for that position…!
Now if THAT happens, and 3-way DemoCRATic Party punches are being thrown all over the place b4 THEIR victor emerges, Pat Quinn or Lisa may be so bloodied upon from all the Bludgeioning so that an Opening for a UNIFIED GOP Candidate could actually arise (although even then the General Election would at best be a real Cliffhanger, perhaps something akin to 1982 between Thompson and Stevenson….
Comment by Just The Way It Is One Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 3:44 pm
Dillard and Brady are pretty right; Rauner is running against pensioneers he made a fortune off of. That would seem to leave the middle to Rutherford.
Comment by wordslinger Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 3:47 pm
==”Its 2014, we all need to not relive 2010.”
Sorry, OW, but isn’t learning from the past what this post is all about? Can we at least agree 7 candidates running in a primary is about 3 too many? And 3 candidates from one county is 2 too many?
Have a good weekend.
Comment by Darienite Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 4:02 pm
- Darienite -,
Nope.
Open seat for a Republican Nominee, and they all want to run, run them all!
If Dillard took care of Election Day and a Field Operation, there would be NO need to …”Oh, Poor Kirk”, “Dillard should have been …”
Nope. You lose on the ground, by 193 votes, then no, you don’t get that “nod”
As for reliving 2010 in 2014, that is the only lesson Dillard should take from 2010;
Identify your voters, vote your pluses, have a strong election day push.
The rest is just “ifs, buts, candy, and nuts”
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 4:09 pm
So it looks like Rutherford, Rauner, Dillard and Brady. Any chance there are any more candidates? Proft or Walsh maybe?
Wordslinger’s comment makes a lot sense if it’s just these four. If they do a repeat of the 2010 free for all, the calculus changes dramatically.
Can I start a draft Joe Walsh group?
Comment by 47th Ward Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 4:19 pm