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* There is probably little harm right now, and probably far more upside, to promoting one’s possible candidacy for governor, considering the apparent dissatisfaction voters have with the two Democratic candidates. So, this self-floatation should be expected…

ABC7’s political reporter Charles Thomas has learned another candidate might enter the democratic race for Illinois Governor. State senator Kwame Raoul (D-Chicago) says he is giving it serious consideration.

Raoul was poised to run for attorney general if incumbent Lisa Madigan had run for governor. Now that Madigan has decided to stay put, Raoul has “pivoted” as he put it, and is now sizing up a gubernatorial campaign.

“You know, you don’t rule out anything. So I haven’t ruled out anything. But my focus right now is this pension reform problem,” said Sen. Raoul. […]

The Governor’s strong support among African-Americans could be threatened by Raoul, a 48-year-old Hyde Park attorney who took Barack Obama’s Senate seat in 2004. He authored the bill that abolished the state’s death penalty and this year, helped negotiate the new concealed carry law.

He says he will not make a decision on the Governor’s race until after his conference committee finishes work on pension reform.

“Once we take care of this problem, politics will take care of itself,” said Sen. Raoul.

* The Question: Should Sen. Kwame Raoul run for governor? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please. And please note that I asked “should” and not “will.”

polls

Just so you know, it’s probably gonna be a light blogging day. So, have at it.

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 9:54 am

Comments

I voted “Yes”

He will bring a different perspective to the pension reform discussion than any of the other candidates.

Comment by Bill White Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 9:57 am
With Quinn and Daley trying to outdo each other to come up with silly stunts to prove they’re serious about pension reform, a serious guy with a record of actually sitting down with the major players and getting stuff done behind the scenes might be a breath of fresh air. If there’s going to be a three-way race, it’s a bit ridiculous for all three to be from Cook County. But I don’t see any downstaters poised to jump in, so I’d say Raoul would be a pretty good choice to add to the mix. Younger, South Side, African-American, experience in the legislature - all good distinctives.

Comment by Yossarian Lives Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 10:00 am
Voted “Yes”…

His credentials are no less than Dillard’s or Brady’s in governmental aspects, he is respected in the Caucus, he has a constituency the other two Dem Candidates can not fully claim as their own, and being close to the Pension Mess as a legislator on the Democratic side, Sen. Raoul brings a different dynamic needed in the discussion.

Run. “Yes”. Go for it.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 10:02 am
I voted yes. I think he’s extremely smart, personable and a great strategist. He’s really done some good things by quietly building consensus on difficult issues. He really does exhibit the characteristics we need in Governor.

Even if he doesn’t pull the trigger in the end, by positioning himself as a potential - he will increase his visibility and long term prospects for ‘14 or beyond.

Comment by siriusly Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 10:02 am
He’s got talent, and many Democrats aren’t enamored with either Quinn or Daley. On the other hand, the rule is that more than one opponent tends to benefit the incumbent. In this case, however, it might hurt Quinn to the extent that Raoul siphons off black votes.

Comment by reformer Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 10:03 am
Don’t know much about the Man, but I can see that he already has his sleeves roll up!

Looking forward to what he has to say.

Comment by WhoKnew Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 10:04 am
Kwame will bring an adult into the race. Politically he could carry the African-American vote, the liberal north side and the downstate rural NRA vote. That is a potent coalition.

Comment by Cassiopeia Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 10:04 am
Good time for him to give it a shot. He’s got a 4-year term and he might just squeak in after the bloodshed between Quinn and Daley.

Comment by Norseman Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 10:07 am
Even if he loses, he should increase name recognition and respect to set up his next race.

And he really can’t have a much better shot than this. Two (let’s face it) older, white, Irish males running against each other, who each have very serious negatives. It’s a race where there will be lots of free media and attention. If it goes well, he could win.

Comment by Keyrock Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 10:07 am
If Sen. Raoul enters the race, he starts with a base in the high teen to low/mid 20% range based on likely support in the African American community as long as he is viewed as credible and viable. This obviously impacts Quinn who is riding minority support right now, but the question is can Kwame run a campaign that expands beyond this base. If he can, he could be very dangerous. Support of African American candidates by AA voters in Dem primaries when given the options of a viable African American candidates is very consistent (ask Paul Vallas who thought he would get the majority of black votes because of his CPS work vs. Roland Burris — Burris got close to 80% of the City black vote), etc.

Comment by Dave Fako Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 10:08 am
I’m very biased and have been banging this drum for a week now. The obvious point of course is can he raise money to boost name recognition, with Quinn drawing on the powers of incumbency and Daley hoovering up the corporate bucks. And I’m not sure Madigan is encouraging his contacts to give heavily to a draft-Kwame movement, though for the umpteenth time, Madigan is less the master puppeteer than the media makes him out to be.

Comment by ZC Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 10:09 am
We badly need a governor who can lead and manage. The one we have is doing a poor job of either. I’d sure like to see a viable alternative.

Comment by Aldyth Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 10:09 am
I doubt he runs for governor but floating his name so the press spreads it throughout the Land of Lincoln is very wise indeed.

Comment by The Muse Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 10:09 am
Another interesting question, if I’m Bill Daley, do I want Kwame Raoul to enter this race?

Comment by ZC Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 10:10 am
Yes, yes! Please run.

Sen. Raoul is trying to bring pragmatism and common sense to the pension situation, and I’d love to see that brought forward into the gov race. There’s a lot of crazy on the right — and enough confusion and acrimony on the left — that common sense and pragmatism are exactly what we need right now.

Comment by Frenchie Mendoza Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 10:11 am
I voted yes. I’d love to have another option besides Quinn and Daley, and have heard good things about both Senator Raoul’s positions and his leadership skills.

Comment by TooManyJens Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 10:15 am
If he runs, it’ll help Daley win. Is there a Quid pro quo?

Comment by Lovey Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 10:16 am
Please run Kwame. We need a credible dem to run who cares about middle class working folks. It’s clearly not Quinn or Daley. He would change the dynamic instantly.

Comment by Farker Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 10:17 am
Yes. The more the merrier.

Comment by Downstater Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 10:18 am
He absolutely should run. Positions himself as the next generation African American political leader and actually would have an outside chance to win. Quinn and Daley will beat the crap out of each other giving rise to the real possibility of Kwame sneaking up the middle. Makes all the sense in the world for him with few downsides (if he’s in the middle of his term).

Comment by Chicago Cynic Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 10:19 am
Yes, for the same reasons many others have cited. He’s been rolling up his sleeves and delving into two of the biggest issues to face the state in recent years, pension reform and concealed carry. And the abolition of the death penalty is huge. I’ve never met the man, but he sounds like a very credible candidate. I look forward to his decision and hearing more about his positions and platform if he decides to run.

Comment by ??? Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 10:21 am
He starts with a strong base, he has solid progressive credentials, he’s engaging at the podium and he has nothing to lose. Best case scenario, he wins and shocks the nation. Worst case, he can either go back to the GA with much-enhance name recognition or join the incredibly grateful Daley Administration. Run Kwame Run.

Comment by No downside Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 10:23 am
I voted no, but it’s because I am a big fan of his that I’d rather he not run now. I don’t see a clear path to victory for him and I’d hate for him to waste his growing political capital on a failed bid for the top job. He would make a good governor some day, but 2014 isn’t the time for him. He’s young, smart and ambitious, and he works hard, all good qualities.

Float your name Senator. Talk to some folks, use this opportunity to meet with some key players. Then get back to work on pensions and keep doing what you’ve been doing and good things will happen down the road.

Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 10:24 am
The only reason not to is if he can’ raise a reasonable amount of money in a hurry to get started.

You don’t want to look weak or silly.

What’s reasonable? $2 million? $3 million? You’ll need more to win, but that range, if raised quickly, could show you’re for real.

Maybe Lisa could prime the pump, considering all she hoovered up for her expected run. She won’t need much of that bankroll for her race.

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 10:24 am
No - I don’t want the chair of the pension reform committee running for governor against a sitting governor. Seems like this would make pension reform less likely to happen in 2013, as instead they’d just point fingers at each other.

Comment by Robert the Bruce Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 10:29 am
After consideration of 47th Ward & Wordslinger’s comments, I would revise to say

1. Consider running,

2. See who will provisionally commit to endorse and/or donate. A top shelf Lt Gov commitment would be one piece of this.

3. Evaluate #2 and if there is enough support, go for it. If not, don’t.

4. Don’t run as a spoiler - only run if objective analysis per step #2 indicates a good chance of winning.

Comment by Bill White Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 10:29 am
I am going against the tide here. I voted No.

I think Kwame is the real deal. Great man.

I just don’t see him at this date being able to put the $$ and organization together in time to contend successfully.

I’m also wondering if he has the “fire in the belly” for it right now. “Pivoting over” seems like a pretty mild way to describe one’s interest.

Having said that, I do hope he runs for higher office somewhere down the road.

Comment by Arthur Andersen Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 10:33 am
He’d have my vote.

Comment by Chavez-respecting Obamist Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 10:33 am
47th, I disagree. I don’t think he wastes political capital here. He is certain to come out with a respectable showing in the primary, and it gives him a chance to start building name recognition outside Chicago. Not many people know him yet, and it’s a challenge to go from zero to 60 during a primary, especially if he’s facing a well-known opponent. There are plenty of folks who have placed second in their first big race who have gone on to win it. And don’t forget the “Three-time loss from Holy Cross,” Bob Casey.

Comment by No downside Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 10:35 am
I voted Yes. I opposed most of Raoul’s ideas on CCW. However from watching the debate he seemed to be the only player on the, for lack of a better term, anti side to be more interested in reaching a solution then hoovering up attention. If as we all suspect that the Dem Primary is the only contested race for Gov then it would be nice to have a pragmatic reasonable adult in the race.

Add to that between Daley and Quinn blasting each other with everything but the Kitchen sink he may be the only one to actually run a somewhat positive campaign.

Comment by Mason born Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 10:37 am
Run kwame…runn

Comment by Downstate dem Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 10:42 am
I hope he runs. I will contribute money and time to him. I am an older downstate democrat and want Quinn gone.

Comment by Cassidy Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 10:45 am
I vote no only because it appears he’s hanging his hat on getting elected if the pension reform is popular with voters. Ifit’s not a popular reform,he will drop out. We don’ t need another populist governor. Otherwise, he’s as good as any other candidate.

Comment by Soccertease Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 10:46 am
Saw him on Berkowitz a few years ago and was thoroughly unimpressed. The fact that he’s touted as a leading light in springfield says a lot about that town and its political culture.

Given Daley’s strength in the suburbs and with the few white men left in the democratic party I think Raoul running assures a Quinn defeat in the primary.

Comment by shore Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 10:49 am
Yes - Quinn and Dailey are very status quo and that isn’t getting state issues resolved.

Comment by Jack Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 10:50 am
We said “yes” because it might help a few consultants gab some cash and force PQ and BankerBilly to scramble some for a month or so.

Plus it give the Senator a chance to cruise around the state and meet some folks who will need a candidate to launch against Kirk in 2 years.

Comment by CircularFiringSquad Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 10:52 am
I voted yes for the same reasons many have voiced. He does seem to work towards a solution, and he is different from the test. I don’t know much about him, but if he throws his hat in. I will treat him like any other candidate, research all on the ticket regardless of party, and vote where I think is best.

Comment by FormerParatrooper Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 10:54 am
It might re-direct the Daley/Quinn hatefest that is gearing up. That one thing alone is enough to support the bid. I was not looking forward to the predictable populist vs 1% trajectory this primary seemed to be going.

Comment by dupage dan Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 10:55 am
Voted Yes, before I read the comments…Mason Born hit the nail on the head as far as I am concerned. All of the top Democrats are anti-gun anyway, so why not have one we pro-gunners can at least debate the issue with?
Have heard his name attached to some other stuff besides the pension problem; he seems to be a moderate, intelligent man who might be what Illinois needs.
His name recognition is probably better downstate (because of the gun issue) than I feel some of you believe.
While his race will probably hurt him downstate (some people are racist idiots), dissatisfaction with Quinn and distrust of anybody named Daley might lead to a wide-open primary.

Comment by downstate commissioner Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 10:59 am
I think he guarantees a Daley victory. Did Barack and Rahm ask him to run?

Comment by Scoop Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 11:00 am
I think Kwame has a strong chance in a 3 person race. While he has a strong base in the African American community I think he becomes the candidate for the progressive grassroots community which will be very active in the primary. He could pull it off if he ran.

Comment by wndycty Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 11:04 am
Nope. Sorry, but he’s not ready for prime time yet. Someone please tell me how he’s going to raise more than $2 million dollars. And though an effective legislator, he doesn’t exactly “connect” with people.

Comment by Rahm'sMiddleFinger Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 11:08 am
He is one of a very few politicians, from Illinois or elsewhere, who expresses support for the Constitution and the rule of law, and has not engaged in demagoguery on pensions. I find it supremely ironic that these once bedrock conservative and Republican principles have been abandoned by all but a select few in the Democratic party.

Comment by Andrew Szakmary Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 11:10 am
Odd to read Oswego’s comments praising a Democrat and stating that the Democrat’s experience is just as good as two of the leading Republicans.

Never saw that coming from a self-proclaimed Republican.

But in any case, I voted no. Raoul has been around for a while but yet does not seem to have a firm grip on the financial challenges facing Illinois. Despite being on the committee, I just haven’t seen that sort of leadership from him.

Comment by VonKlutzenplatz Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 11:16 am
“Two (let’s face it) older, white, Irish males running against each other, who each have very serious negatives.”

This (very broadly) describes me, and add in ‘from Chicago’, and I still *very, very, very* much want a choice besides those two mopes. Run, Kwame, run!

Comment by Chris Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 11:22 am
47 and I are normally on the same page, but my friend I strongly disagree with you on this one. As Daley and Quinn spend millions driving up each other’s negatives, the opportunity will open up for Kwame, particularly if he presents himself as a very serious candidate.

There will be an opportunity for a viable third candidate in this race. Why not Kwame?

Comment by Chicago Cynic Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 11:23 am
I cant vote on this survey because I dont yet know where Kwame stands on my key issue: Is he in favor of an unconstitutional reneging on retired teachers pension contracts, or is he in favor of a genuine fix of Illinois revenue problems? I do know I will NOT support anyone who believes in pension reform by reneging, whether democrat or republican. For the first time in my life, I will become a single issue voter.

Comment by cod Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 11:23 am
” Raoul has been around for a while but yet does not seem to have a firm grip on the financial challenges facing Illinois.”

If that’s the standard, then we wouldn’t have any of the current candidates from *either* party.

Comment by Chris Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 11:24 am
-downstate rural NRA vote-

Seriously ? Just because he brokered a CCW compromise doesn’t make him a supporter of gun rights, actually he is quite the opposite.

Comment by boog Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 11:27 am
I could be wrong, but his entrance looks “reactionary” to me. I don’t think you want to be one of those guys who floats your name unless your very serious. A nice quote like “I’m flattered by the attention” has a lot of upside too.

Comment by A guy... Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 11:29 am
Cynic, tell me how Raoul raises $2 million in six months. Tell me he has a lock on the African-American vote. Tell me Toni Preckwinkle pulls out all of the stops for him so he can leapfrog ahead of her. Tell me Danny Davis, Bobby Rush and Robin Kelly go all out for him.

Is there a path for a 3rd candidate? I think so, but she’s currently running for re-election (that applies to both LMadigan and Preckwinkle). A credible female candidate has a very good chance. I just hink Kwame would end up looking like a spoiler and that would hurt him long-term.

Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 11:30 am
- VK -,

Poking bears is just Hank-y Panky…

To the Post,

I understand the idea of ruining the Kwame “Brand” but if Sen. Raoul follows the Pat Quinn & Dan Rutherford model, losing can lead to winning.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 11:32 am
@VK - Not sure what your obsession is with OW’s Republicanness but even so how does OW referencing that Raoul has the same govt title as Brady and Dillard (state senator) make OW more or less of a Republican?

To the topic, Id like Raoul to run just to make things more interesting primarily and secondly because he’s not a white Irish guy or a son-of-somebody-in-politics. Willing to start out giving him a favorable look on that alone.

Comment by hisgirlfriday Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 11:33 am
===Tell me Toni Preckwinkle pulls out all of the stops for him so he can leapfrog ahead of her.===

I’m not sure that she wants to move up anyway.

As far as the money, it’ll come. He raised $400K in a month in a bid for AG. He can raise the dough if he jumps in.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 11:33 am
===I just hink Kwame would end up looking like a spoiler and that would hurt him long-term. ===

It didn’t hurt Richard M. Daley’s longterm prospects.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 11:35 am
–Seriously ? Just because he brokered a CCW compromise doesn’t make him a supporter of gun rights, actually he is quite the opposit–

Anyone who paid attention to the CCW fight knows Raoul isn’t a pro-gun kind of guy. Make no mistake there and anyone for CCW knows it. Do you really think PQ or Daley is going to run to the right of him for the pro-gun vote? Would you rather have PQ theatrics or Daley? If the Repubs are DOA better to have an Adult than an incompetent goob or a Daley.

Comment by Mason born Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 11:40 am
Yes. His presence could trigger a broader conversation about issues - Quinn vs. Daley is likely to go quickly to mud since neither has been strong on issues. Plus it will raise his profile for future office.

Comment by UptownProgressive Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 11:42 am
Yes! If Roland Burris can get a third of the vote against Vallas and Rod, Kwame could possibly come out on top. Nobody wants to vote for Daley or Quinn. Voters may flock to a reasonable alternative even if they don’t really know him. On the other hand, Kwame may just be pulling a Lisa to raise some cash.

Comment by Bill Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 11:43 am
Like I said, I like Raoul. A lot. He knows as well as anyone if he gets in the race, he hurts Quinn the most. RMD’s longterm prospects were sealed at birth. It’s hard to compare the two. Can he win by losing? Sure. But if all he accomplishes is to ensure Quinn’s defeat, it doesn’t serve his interests well in my opinion.

And he might be able to raise big bucks in a hurry, but it would be easier if he had Preckwinkle’s help, as well as the help of the Black Caucus leaders to help in DC and elsewhere. I don’t see that happening today, but I could be wrong. Is Kwame really going to Boston, LA, Atlanta, to raise big dough? Do the national trial lawyers get behind him or does Daley vaccuum up the national cash?

The first time Obama went to Boston to raise money in his primary, he couldn’t raise $10K. And that was with Harvard Law connections. Does anybody think Raoul does better?

I’d love to be wrong on this.

Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 11:44 am
========I just hink Kwame would end up looking like a spoiler and that would hurt him long-term.

Who is he spoiling it for? One white Irish guy against another white Irish guy?

Can he pull AFSCME & SEIU is my main question and then can he improve his television skills? I bet he can improve his TV skills, but he needs work on those skills. If he can get SEIU, I think he wins–but I’m not sure how the Governor and SEIU are currently getting along.

Comment by ArchPundit Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 11:44 am
Why Kwame Raoul can win:

He’s not Bill Daley, with the Daley family baggage. He’s a fresh face. He knows how to get along with other politicians. He can raise money. He’s not Pat Quinn. He’s in a Blue state.

Comment by Steve Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 11:45 am
I voted no because I don’t think he can win and I worry that running might compromise his ability to accomplish things in the legislature.

Comment by Distant Viewer Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 11:51 am
Speeaking of running against CommandoMakeItUp
look at Sen Kirk gettin’ all urban on us…”gangs of national significance” (BTW pay no attention to this is lots of new spending by sequester city)

The Kirk Report

Dear Friends,
I want to update you on significant progress we made last week on several important initiatives for Illinois.

BIPARTISAN ANTI-GANG INITIATIVE ADVANCES

Solving the issue of violent gangs requires a coordinated effort at every level of government. I believe we must do all we can to keep our communities safe, prevent senseless tragedies and save lives. Last week, the Senate Appropriations Committee advanced my initiative to increase resources for anti-gang strategies in Illinois and around the nation. On Thursday, our Committee approved nearly $20 million in funding to combat gangs of national significance like the Gangster Disciples in Chicago the gang responsible for killing 15-year-old Hadiya Pendleton earlier this year. To listen to my comments at the meeting click here.

We also secured critical resources for: grant programs to reduce violent gang and gun crimes; the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms to enhance enforcement of gun laws; the FBI to double the capacity of the National Instant Criminal Background Check System; and the Department of Justice to report on its strategy to combat gangs of national significance. All of these programs are important in the effort to fight dangerous gangs in Illinois and across America.

Comment by CircularFiringSquad Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 11:56 am
Rich Miller and Willy are exactly right. And even if 47 is right that he would lose in the end, how is he hurt? I just don’t see that.

Comment by Chicago Cynic Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 12:01 pm
– Raoul has been around for a while but yet does not seem to have a firm grip on the financial challenges facing Illinois.–

What does that even mean? He can’t read a budget book? Doesnt’ understand revenue projections?

Understanding the state budget is not exactly heavy lifting if you’re willing to do the reading, which I’m sure he has. I’m quite certain many legislators and statewide candidates have not, if they really believe the nonsense that comes out of their mouths.

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 12:04 pm
Mason - I wouldn’t assume that the R’s are DOA just yet - it depends on who gets the D nomination. If PQ somehow manages to sqeak by with a victory, the R’s stand a very good chance of winning the governor’s mansion (and he might actually live in it !!!).

Comment by boog Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 12:04 pm
ROland Burris with a chanve to win. If he adds to the conversation (and expense) good for him.

Comment by Wumpus Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 12:06 pm
Sure why not.

I would love to hear his qualifications. Does he understand budgets and the hole we are in? Can he at least stop the digging?

Comment by Plutocrat03 Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 12:10 pm
I don’t want him making decisions on crime and justice issues as a governor so I don’t want him to run for the office.

Comment by Amalia Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 12:11 pm
Word,
Wordslinger, how long has Raoul been in Springfield?

During that time, has he ever taken any leadership role on real solutions to the financial condition of this state?

In those years, exactly what has he done to get solve the problem?

He hasn’t done anything. He’s part of the problem.

Comment by VonKlutzenplatz Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 12:16 pm
Rich-

Please tell me where the money is going to come from.

About half of his $182,000 in individual contributions came from trial lawyers. That made sense when he was running for AG. He won’t see any more from them running for Governor.

The transfers in he received are from entities that any State Senator can access. They won’t be giving in large amounts.

The trade unions are behind Quinn. I highly doubt SEIU abandons the Governor. So the only hope Kwame has to raise real money will be to get AFSCME and the Teachers to go all in with him. And less they set up a Super PAC to do it, they’ll be limited.

Again, I don’t seem him getting to $2M.

Comment by Rahm'sMiddleFinger Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 12:23 pm
VonKlutz-

I’ve made my position clear that he shouldn’t run. However, Chairing the Pension Conference Committee certainly qualifies under your standards.

Comment by Rahm'sMiddleFinger Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 12:24 pm
Von Klutz,

He was the Senate floor leader for reform of workmen’s compensation, and was very strong and effective–had to face down the Republicans and call their bluff.

Comment by jake Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 12:29 pm
No. Too late, hard to raise money, great guy, not just yet..
Obama’s replacement needs more experience in state government just as Obama needed more experience in DC before running for POTUS.

Daley and Quinn are better of the three Dems offered up to date.

Comment by Loop Lady Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 12:32 pm
cod -

We won’t know until the conference committee comes out with its report where Raoul stands in terms of supporting any particular pension compromise, but so far he’s been very vocal about the need to make sure reform is constitutional. He’s pro-worker but also pragmatic; he’s said many times that a reform plan declared unconstitutional by a court won’t save any money and will just waste time.

Comment by Yossarian Lives Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 12:43 pm
@RMF

=== The trade unions are behind Quinn. I highly doubt SEIU abandons the Governor. So the only hope Kwame has to raise real money will be to get AFSCME and the Teachers to go all in with him. ===

This is where Kwame Raoul needs to do some “due diligence” —

IF he can get commitments for this type of support, THEN jump in.

IF he cannot rally this type of support over the next 30 - 45 days, THEN stay out.

Comment by Bill White Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 12:43 pm
I would have someone to vote for in the Dem Gov primary…I sure don’t have anyone now!

Comment by D P Gumby Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 12:52 pm
- VK -

Always with the “anything” - lol!!

Seems like Sen. Raoul is in a Prime leadership spot in the Conference Comittee.

Yikes, is there “anyone” that has done “anything”? lol

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 1:04 pm
@boog

If PQ wins nomination then I’ll vote R. However never underestimate the R’s ability to pull defeat from the jaws of Victory.

Comment by Mason born Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 1:11 pm
He would get my vote!

Comment by Yep Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 1:15 pm
Several people have already noted his up-side. Even if he doesn’t win he gets exposure for a later run. I too suspect he might like the idea of taking on a Kirk who is probably not physically able to stand the strain of a long strong campaign. (And don’t get me wrong, Kirk has done very well to return to his current level of activity. I’m just not sure how much more stamina and verbal fluency he can get. After all, he has largely been absent from public appearances downstate since his illness.)

But the downside for Raoul is that if he gets too close, Quinn and Daley will both share some of the mud they are mixing right now for each other. THAT could damage Raoul’s future prospects.

If he runs, he must do well enough to be seen as viable statewide (lots of visits downstate). “Downstate” is also why he probably wouldn’t win the primary…too little recognition for a three way race with each taking a chunk of Chicago.

But, he can’t do so well that the others decide they need to eat him. A nice calculation to make, no?

Comment by Blm Normalite Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 1:16 pm
Voted no. If he wins the primary he ensures a GOP governor. It’s going to be an ugly primary and he shouldn’t want to be part of it.

Comment by Northsider Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 1:18 pm
Kwame so totally has my vote! Seriously, this would be a classic Michael Howlett move, as a commenter mentioned yesterday.

Comment by Springfield Wife Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 1:22 pm
- Seriously, this would be a classic Michael Howlett move -

That worked out well for Howlett.

He wasn’t even considering this last week, I have a real hard time believing he could pull it off now.

Comment by Small Town Liberal Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 1:33 pm
The current pool of likely gubernatorial candidates from both major parties is pretty uninteresting. Quinn, who has almost two lackluster terms already, a member of a powerful Chicago Democratic political family, and, on the Republican side, the usual billionaire, plus several of the usual Republican suspects from Downstate.

So Raoul would be an interesting addition. But if he wants to run, this could be his year. Lisa may be back in 2018. And, of course, there is the example of the President, who was viewed by many political experts as too green to even be a candidate for US Senator, much less President. In his shoes, I wouldn’t be distracted by those who say he’s not “ready.”

Comment by Cassandra Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 1:34 pm
@Mason

Agreed, though after watching the antics revolving around CCW, I will never vote D again, regardless of the office or the candidate.

Comment by boog Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 1:38 pm
Rolo Tomassi II, retiree and proud member of AFSCME, casts one vote for Sen Raoul.

Comment by Rolo Tomassi II Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 1:44 pm
I know analogies can be odious, but a few days ago I posted that Bobby Kennedy got into the 1968 Dem primary late but had made some big gains regardless. And if there were a candidate with similar attractive qualities in the Illinois Dem primary for Governor, he or she might have a good chance. Perhaps Sen. Raoul is that candidate. Rich Miller replied to my previous post that contemporary analysis found that Kennedy probalby would have lost in that ‘68 primary, something we will never know for certain. But if Sen. Raoul is sincere and capable, then go for it. If he is hinting at a gubernatorial run only to raise cash, as suggested by a commenter above, then fie on him. I hope that is not the case.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 1:44 pm
Yes

kwame seems to almost have a thompsonesque ability to draw support and consenus and big ticket issues.

I would go so far to say that he may be the best canidate to draw back some of the internal divisions and partisan hurdles to solving problems.

Comment by Ghost Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 1:57 pm
@boog

Unfortunately that would be a mistake on your part. I have no love for either of the parties however it was downstate dems who pushed the CCW through. There are good and bad examples in both of the parties. The problem is that in IL the Dems control the reigns and even with PQ at the top they will be formidible.

Comment by Mason born Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 2:00 pm
VK
KR understands that IL is among the lowest spending states, either per capita or as a percent of state GDP. And that IL has a revenue problem. Consequently, he voted for the temporary income tax hike that some Republicans were hoping would pass even though none of them would vote for it.

Comment by reformer Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 2:12 pm
=== KR understands that IL is among the lowest spending states, either per capita or as a percent of state GDP. And that IL has a revenue problem. ===

What reformer said.

And this is exactly why some are saying KR lacks a “serious” understanding of the financial challenges faced by the State of Illinois.

Comment by Bill White Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 2:23 pm
He is a real alternative: a real Democrat. The only one in the democratic primary.

Comment by Bobbysox Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 2:26 pm
Early in the game. Go for it. Give all the analysts and pundits another competitor to stay up late about.

Comment by zatoichi Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 2:36 pm
I don’t know Kwame Raoul but from what I hear from people I trust, everyone says he is a decent guy and like compromise. I think this election screams for a fresh face and he would be in a good position to make a run for the Governors office. So many people want no part of PQ or a Daley family member and I don’t think the Republican alternative will be anything to write home about either.

Comment by Stones Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 3:17 pm
I’m with 47th and a few others on this. I voted no. I knew him early in his professional career as an ASA and then private bar attorney. He has made a lot of progress since then but I’m not sure if he has the passion to run this time. I think he should sit this one out. It’s not his time yet.

Comment by carbaby Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 3:42 pm
He has a much chance of winning the Democratic nomination as Brady does the Republican nomination !

Comment by Realist Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 4:29 pm
This is America and he can do what he wants, but I seriously doubt he’d succeed. Surely he can’t just be assuming that simply since he emanates from the South Side of Chicago that this means he can count confidently on winning 85-90% of the African-American vote throughout the State in a Dem. Primary. And beyond his VERY limited base, where does he garner anywhere NEAR the kind of support he’d need to grab closer to 40% of the overall voters to emerge victorious? Pat Quinn has developed deep ties over many Decades now, not ONLY in the African-American Community, but throughout Chicago, Cook County, and certain other pockets Downstate. Plus, William D. will also be well-financed. Also, and in such a short period of time, just where and how would Raoul raise anywhere NEAR the amount of money he’d most DEFinitely require, at LEAST somewhere around 1 1/2 Million, merely to be competitive?? Decent fellow, but this Election is one at this point it’d NOT be UNwise to sit out…!

Comment by Just The Way It Is One Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 7:47 pm
==And don’t forget the “Three-time loss from Holy Cross,” Bob Casey.==

Bob Casey, Sr. first ran for Governor of Pennsylvania in 1966. If Kwame follows his schedule he will become Governor of Illinois in 2034.

==Never saw that coming from a self-proclaimed Republican.==

Yes, Republican can only say nice things about Republicans and bad things about Democrats. What preschool do you attend?

==Word,
Wordslinger, how long has Raoul been in Springfield?

During that time, has he ever taken any leadership role on real solutions to the financial condition of this state?

In those years, exactly what has he done to get solve the problem?

He hasn’t done anything. He’s part of the problem.==

Who in Springfield has done anything that fits your criteria? No one. Dillard and Brady sat on their butts.

Comment by Precinct Captain Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 10:07 pm
Say the Pension CC drags on for a couple months. Say Raoul becomes the only candidate for governor who backs the Cullerton plan. Does he garner the support of the We Are One members?

Comment by east central Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 11:00 pm
The more I think about it…

Sen Raoul could have a plurality of the votes from African Americans, teachers union members, state employees, university & community college employees, and young democrats. If he is not out of bounds on womens issues and if he can maintain composure during a grueling campaign, he has a decent shot.

Comment by east central Tuesday, Jul 23, 13 @ 11:35 pm
This is good news. Quinn and Daley are not worth my vote. If Raoul can appease both sides of the pension issue, he could be the next governor.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jul 24, 13 @ 4:59 am
He is as good a candidate as the other two, plus he has experience working WITH the General Assembly.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jul 24, 13 @ 8:38 am