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“Exploratory” bid now a “real” bid

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Bill Daley says he is finished exploring.

His campaign tells the Chicago Sun-Times that on Tuesday morning it will file papers with the Illinois State Board of Elections that “tears the exploratory label” off his committee.

Of course, he’s the one who put it there in the first place.

Nonetheless, Daley wants to convey that he’s not waffling; he’s committed to running for governor. That’s an important signal to send now after many donors are still reeling over Lisa Madigan’s flirtation with a run that ended up going nowhere. And Daley has a reputation for teasing about public office but never pulling the trigger.

Gov. Pat Quinn has said he will run for reelection. But the withdrawal of Madigan — whom Daley considered his biggest threat — gives the former White House Chief of Staff a much greater edge.

Yes, he has a better shot since Madigan dropped out, but I’m still not totally clear on his path to victory here.

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Jul 30, 13 @ 9:41 am

Comments

Daley’s primary argument seems to be “I’m not Pat Quinn.”

Conversely, Quinn’s primary argument will be “Ramble ramble ramble I’m not Bill Daley ramble ramble ramble.”

This is looking like the type of ugly primary that the GOP usually finds itself in.

Comment by Skeeter Tuesday, Jul 30, 13 @ 9:44 am
His path to victory may lie in an even more thorough and complete collapse of Pat Quinn’s governing authority in the upcoming six months.

It’s a risk, since Daley doesn’t control his own destiny, in that case … but stranger and more improbable things have happened.

Comment by ZC Tuesday, Jul 30, 13 @ 9:46 am
“I’m still not totally clear on his path to victory here.”

All he has to do is convince the people of Illinois that a Daley who got rich at a Wall Street investment bank is the best person to represent their interests as governor.

That’s all.

– MrJM

Comment by MrJM Tuesday, Jul 30, 13 @ 9:46 am
Governor Quinn will NOT run after pensions get settled……Ambassador to Ireland

Comment by Glass half full Tuesday, Jul 30, 13 @ 9:49 am
It will be a chilly day in Hades before downstaters vote for a Daley from Chicago. Of course, our votes don’t count for much……….

Comment by lincolnlover Tuesday, Jul 30, 13 @ 9:49 am
Daley will have the money to TRY to define himself beyond the “Big Banker Boogie Man”, but like Rich said, I can’t see voters downstate holding their nose to vote for a Daley, no matter how awful Pat Quinn is in their minds.

Further, Pat Quinn versus Bill Daley on the South and West sides of Chicago? Pat Quinn has to be seen as the winner in those battleground areas, regardless of what Bill Daley can prop up in advertising.

Finally, you have to believe there are some in the Cook Democratic Party that would love to see a Daley lose. Some never got to settle business with Rich Daley, but now they have a chance to square-up with Bill, and given the GOP field, today, still keep the Mansion in Democratic hands.

The Bill Daley route is a Big Ask to get to the finish line, and that just to get to be the Nominee. But …this is why we have elections.

Oh, and Captain Rennault and I are “shocked” Bill Daley took this next step. We are glad the Daley Camp made this clear. Whew!

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Jul 30, 13 @ 9:54 am
Apologies!

I do not wanto to put words in Rich’s mouth. I Posted;

===…but like Rich said, I can’t see voters downstate holding their nose to vote for a Daley, no matter how awful Pat Quinn is in their minds.===

Should read …

“…but like Rich said, I can’t see a clear path for a Daley win, and I personally have trouble seeing voters downstate holding their nose to vote for a Daley, no matter how awful Pat Quinn is in their minds.”

Apologoies Rich.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Jul 30, 13 @ 9:57 am
lincolnlover, don’t be too sure. That’s traditionally not been the case.

Downstate support obviously got Glenn Poshard the Dem nomination in 1998.

Downstate support (at least if we narrowly define “Downstate” as the E. St Louis / Madison County / St Clair region) was absolutely critical for Rod Blagojevich’s 2002 primary win.

What’s different of course is right now we’re looking at only a two-horse race. But if somebody else jumps in, I wouldn’t be surprised if the votes somewhere south of I-80 again play a critical role.

Comment by ZC Tuesday, Jul 30, 13 @ 9:57 am
He’s the-guy-who’s-not-Quinn, so that gives him a puncher’s chance in a one-on-one-fight.

Obviously, you can make a negative case against Quinn. But he’s largely a known commodity. I don’t think you can move the needle against him too much.

Daley, on the other hand, is a blank slate. His resume is a mile wide and an inch deep.

Quinn is going to have the money to devastate him with negative spots — NAFTA, insider deals, influence peddling, cashing in on political connections.

And I really don’t think the name “Daley” is a positive anywhere, anymore, among Illinois voters.

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Jul 30, 13 @ 10:01 am
I’ve been reading various articles and I’ve gone to Bill Daley’s website and you know what, I cannot figure out what his platform is, why he wants to be Governor or what he seeks to accomplish as Governor.

Other than his commitment to enact Ty Fahner’s vision of pension reform into law.

Comment by Bill White Tuesday, Jul 30, 13 @ 10:03 am
I’m not sure what Daley found in his exploration, but I have a hard time believing it was anything too positive.

My initial impression is that he’s the kind of guy that hears only what he wants to hear, and has lots of friends that only tell him what he wants to hear. We’ll see how that works out.

Comment by Small Town Liberal Tuesday, Jul 30, 13 @ 10:19 am
El Candidito Real. Appearing at a campaign stop near you.

Meh.

Comment by dupage dan Tuesday, Jul 30, 13 @ 10:24 am
Bill does realize right that he’ll eventually have to tell people downstate that he’s the brother of a former Chicago mayor and the son of another? Just checking.

Comment by too obvious Tuesday, Jul 30, 13 @ 10:30 am
I won’t be voting for Daley. Not because of his family, though Ritchie stuck around about two terms too long. I just think Daley would wreak havoc on the state the way Emanuel is on the city.

Comment by Chavez-respecting Obamist Tuesday, Jul 30, 13 @ 10:49 am
“It will be a chilly day in Hades before downstaters vote for a Daley from Chicago.”

It will be a chilly day in hell before I–a UMC, over-educated, northside white boy lifelong-D–vote for a Daley. I should be his core constituency; he has NO chance at my vote, at any point, bc Illinois cannot be allowed to be the Daley fief, no matter how much they act like it.

To paraphrase Justice Holmes: Three Daleys in government were enough … time to ‘eugenithize’ the Daley-clan’s political future.

Comment by Chris Tuesday, Jul 30, 13 @ 10:49 am
I’ve been hearing some surprising support among suburbanites from both parties, for Bill Daley. He’s viewed as economically Conservative and businesslike, but not toxic on social issues like some of his potential opponents. They also don’t think first of Richie, but rather of banking and Chief of Staff work.

I think he could beat Pat locally, and Brady or Rutherford, but maybe not Dillard or Rauner, in the general.

The “burbs are in between Chicago and downstate in more than one way, and can swing elections.

Still early.

Comment by walkinfool Tuesday, Jul 30, 13 @ 10:51 am
It will be a cold chilly day before a lot of us in Chicago will vote for a Daley also.

“It will be a chilly day in Hades before downstaters vote for a Daley from Chicago. Of course, our votes don’t count for much……….”

Comment by AFSCME Steward Tuesday, Jul 30, 13 @ 10:55 am
“I just think Daley would wreak havoc on the state the way Emanuel is on the city.”

[at the risk of wandering too far off topic]–status quo ain’t an option for Chicago or Illinois. Havoc now or more havoc later.

If anyone has some non-’havoc’ ideas for Chicago (NO, ‘raise taxes and hire more X, Y and Z’ isn’t a real idea) and, for that matter, Illinois, I, for one, would be very eager to hear them.

Comment by Chris Tuesday, Jul 30, 13 @ 10:56 am
He can’t win in a two man race. The negatives attached to the Daley name far outweigh Quinn’s.

Comment by Wensicia Tuesday, Jul 30, 13 @ 10:58 am
Run, Kwame, run!

Comment by wayward Tuesday, Jul 30, 13 @ 11:01 am
Sure Chris, institute a progressive income tax in this backward state that will actually allow YOUR elected representatives to pay the bills they and their predecessors rang up over the last 60 odd years, as opposed to using the constitutionally protected pensions as a piggy bank. And as for havoc, what havoc? The economy is improving, Ty and his boys have been exposed as manipulating our state’s bond ratings. The state is doing quite well in the face of its regressive income tax on the very people (read the middle class and poor) that took it on the chin because of the Wall Street-Republican financial hijinks that caused the Great Recession. But you go ahead and keep screaming that the sky is falling if it keeps you occupied.

Comment by PublicServant Tuesday, Jul 30, 13 @ 11:22 am
What I want to know is who put this idea in Daleys
head and why they did it, or did he come up with this chasing your tail idea all by himself? Did Rahm coerce him? The Civic Committee twist his arm? Inquiring minds want to know…

Comment by Loop Lady Tuesday, Jul 30, 13 @ 11:29 am
I just don’t see it either. Having worked with him
professionally a few times, I don’t find him to be a natural campaigner or particularly empathetic. I would tend to agree with those who posted that he may have “selective listening.”

Comment by Arthur Andersen Tuesday, Jul 30, 13 @ 11:43 am
Fascinating reading the comments.

Looks like I may be the only Daley voter here.
Admittedly, it is only because I can’t stand Quinn and nobody else is on the ballot. If Kwame (or just about anybody) joins the race, I will of course move over to backing the person.

I’m thinking of becoming Daley’s “Bill.” If Blago had somebody to explain anyway ever screw up, so should Daley.

Comment by Skeeter Tuesday, Jul 30, 13 @ 11:45 am
As I’ve said before, Bill Daley’s bio about being a part of the Clinton-Gore Jobs Machine (22 million in 8 years) may be a powerful narrative for downstate Illinois. Sure, he has to overcome some of the anti-Chicago sentiment attached to the name “Daley” … but that is also what Gov Quinn faces as well.

Comment by NW Illinois Dem Tuesday, Jul 30, 13 @ 12:03 pm
What walkinfool said.

I’m not a Daley shill by any means (run Kwame run) but it’s always been my impression that the Daley “brand” actually was quite popular in the Cook County suburbs and in much of the collars. Maybe that’s changed since r2d2 left office, of course, but I don’t think the name is near as toxic in Illinois as some posters think. I’m willing to be convinced otherwise with some actual polling data, of course.

Daley’s problem is I’m not sure those voters are necessarily pulling a “D” ballot in the upcoming primary.

Comment by ZC Tuesday, Jul 30, 13 @ 12:30 pm
Word in the bald cypress swamps is that Poshard endorses Daley . . . Might raise a few eyebrows here — and elsewhere. A “little” fallout from the SIU turf war? Inquiring minds . . .

Comment by Barnabas Brown Tuesday, Jul 30, 13 @ 12:51 pm
we’re living in a world where quinn will have won as many terms as gov as jim edgar 16 months from now and will likely be the nations longest serving gov if he serves until 2019.

didn’t see that coming in 2003.

Comment by Shore Tuesday, Jul 30, 13 @ 12:59 pm
Those suburban voters were swing voters when the interests of Chicago and downstate clashed. When it comes to Daley, those interests are aligned against him so the suburban vote is insufficient to overcome that.

In the city, there’s just not a lot of love for the Daley name these days.

Comment by Original Rambler Tuesday, Jul 30, 13 @ 1:00 pm
–I’m not a Daley shill by any means (run Kwame run) but it’s always been my impression that the Daley “brand” actually was quite popular in the Cook County suburbs and in much of the collars–

I think the Daley brand was only popular among some folks when they got a look at the opponent.

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Jul 30, 13 @ 1:26 pm
I don’t see a pathway to electoral success.
Bill does not have the popularity that his brother had.
Is this is just a Burris-esque ego trip?

Comment by Jake From Elwood Tuesday, Jul 30, 13 @ 2:25 pm
==Downstate support obviously got Glenn Poshard the Dem nomination in 1998.==

Not so obviously. Poshard campaigned a lot with Bill Lipinski on the Southwest and South Side in Chicago. The completely unknown John Schmidt, who had Richard M. Daley backing, broke up the Cook County votes with Roland Burris.

Comment by Precinct Captain Tuesday, Jul 30, 13 @ 4:20 pm
Good luck William D., and to that other very small Percentage of all other Democrat MILLIONAIRES in Illinois (who, mostly, will be backin’ him–the unabashedly/undeniably SUPER RICH Candidate between the two Democrats–NO doubt…)! No doubt, also, that by FAR, MOST average Democrats in Illinois will, therefore, be altogether able to relate to the ULTRA-WEALTHY kind of guy he is, as such…(pfff).

Comment by Just The Way It Is One Tuesday, Jul 30, 13 @ 8:12 pm