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Don’t underestimate Rauner

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Illinois

* I’ve spoken with Bruce Rauner in a smallish, private setting, and he was pretty good one-on-one, but he may have improved his skills. Our frequent commenter OneMan was at a fundraiser over the weekend and watched Rauner in action…

I have to say he really seemed to know what he was doing when it came to working a crowd at a lower priced ticket event.

I don’t know if it was the listening tour, his consultants or whatever, but even when he talked to the dude with a serious skin condition wearing a Joe Walsh t-shirt, he seemed to be able to speak with an ease that, to be blunt, I have never seen from a rich guy candidate before (even better than Jack Ryan). He seemed more comfortable (or at least more relaxed) than Dillard.

Still don’t think I will vote for him, but I am starting to think he shouldn’t be underestimated.

I don’t disagree at all.

* Speaking of Rauner…

According to the Illinois State Board of Elections, Rauner has the top two largest expenditures thus far in 2013. All told, he spent $749,205 on two ad buys in June alone.

By comparison, Gov. Pat Quinn spent the second biggest chunk of change among the six gubernatorial candidates — $15,599 for a poll.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Aug 12, 13 @ 9:15 am

Comments

Rauner might want to slow down his burn rate. The high spending/investment probably has been worth it to date; without it, he might not have been taken seriously as a candidate. But now that he is in the game, he might want to save more for closer to the election.

Comment by Robert the Bruce Monday, Aug 12, 13 @ 9:18 am
The guy’s hustling and has a lot of money, so he can’t be underestimated.

The question in my mind is which way he’ll bounce when the negative spots come. The Farmer Bruce persona will be difficult to maintain.

Rutherford will have money to put Rauner on the defensive. I don’t know that Brady or Dillard will.

Comment by wordslinger Monday, Aug 12, 13 @ 9:21 am
Rauner spent almost $1.5 before 7/1. I understand that he has the potential to raise a lot of money, but it does seem really early to be spending that much.

Is there any indication of when/if he’d self-finance? I imagine the only scenario in which he’d consider it is a general election matchup with someone other than Daley.

Comment by Snucka Monday, Aug 12, 13 @ 9:30 am
I still don’t see him winning a GE in Illinois. T he state may be open to a Republican, but not Bruce Rauner.

Comment by Snucka Monday, Aug 12, 13 @ 9:31 am
Rauner is still largely an unknown. The Capitol Fax folks know him, but the general public does not. The extremely wealthy self financed candidates generally are not well received in Illinois. There are also serious ethical questions about Rauner. There is a chance that he could win the GOP primary. However, if he is the GOP nominee, he will get clobbered in the general.

Comment by AFSCME Steward Monday, Aug 12, 13 @ 9:40 am
== He seemed more comfortable (or at least more relaxed) than Dillard==

Several Billion laying around does tend to make a guy comfortable and relaxed, or at least give a Zen mentality on life. Not snarking,I have met him and he is a very likable and intelligent guy. Illinois could do worse.

Comment by Samurai Monday, Aug 12, 13 @ 9:47 am
==Several Billion laying around does tend to make a guy comfortable and relaxed==

Didn’t seem to do the trick for Mitt Romney.

Comment by TooManyJens Monday, Aug 12, 13 @ 9:48 am
I don’t underestimate Rauner. When you have the cash to reinvent yourself and APPEAR to be engaging, you must take that candidate very seriously.

What - wordslinger - says has the most chance to really define “Payton Prep Clouter” Rauner, from serious candidate Bruce Rauner, and while in a voter contact setting Bruce Rauner, and the “meet ME, Bruce Rauner!” seem real, we all will finally get to meet the “Genuine Bruce Rauner”, warts and Payton Prep Clout and all exposed, will Rauner hold up emotionally, as a candidate, as a campaign, or will the REAL Rauner implode? Will Bruce Rauner withstand and understand that others are going to define him (Rauner), and an image cultivated, is an image set to be torn down.

That is the business of being a candidate, and being in a campaign. Will Bruce Rauner fold? Will “Payton Prep Clouter & Democratic Donor” Bruce Rauner… survive?

THAT… is the only question Rauner needs to answer, but will it be the Bruce Rauner - OneMan- saw, or the fraud Bruce Rauner, faking his way through a Republican primary in hopes of faking his way through to November.

Lastly, it’s one thing to talk a good game to individual voters, heck it’s one thing to give a riveting speech. When Eauner can answer the Dem Donor, the denied Daughter clouding to Payton Prep, or even the fact Rauner feels he doesn’t owe answers… When Rauner turns THAT corner, then the Campaign will have my attention, but I don’t for a second underestimate Rauner.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Aug 12, 13 @ 9:49 am
The difference between Rauner and Romney is that Rauner came from more humble origins. I too have now met him on several occasions and the “regular guy” persona is not an act, it is something he never was able to shake off when he became a very rich man. That down to earth persona is the real deal and sets him apart from other “rich” or “self-funded” candidates who have run for office in the past only to crash and burn. Laugh at the “farmer Rauner” routine, but then check out his background. It will be an interesting race for Governor this year if he gets past the GOP primary.

Comment by Louis G. Atsaves Monday, Aug 12, 13 @ 9:53 am
Talking to a large crowd is usually a learned skill that can be developed by simply doing it regularly. Some people are just naturally good at it. Rauner has done many business deals and talking with groups has been part of the marketing potion of those deals. The groups are bigger now which requires practice much like a comedian learning to work a room or handle hecklers. That is one part of the sell. The rest (ideas, policy, understanding government process, likability, personal relationships, willingness to compromise, etc.) are equally important and often equally difficult to learn/maintain. Having the bucks is a nice step, but as has been seen many time, it is no guarantee to anything except having money.

Comment by zatoichi Monday, Aug 12, 13 @ 9:59 am
I’ve been saying this here from the beginning. I still expect Rauner to emerge as the likely victor in the primary. He seems to be getting his mistakes out early and is laying the necessary groundwork for later victory.

Folks, this is not Blair Hull or Oberweis. Keep your eyes firmly planted on this guy.

Comment by Chicago Cynic Monday, Aug 12, 13 @ 10:05 am
TooManyJens: Got me.

Comment by Samurai Monday, Aug 12, 13 @ 10:06 am
I was at the same event as One Man. Agree that he did the best job of working the crowd. Key reason for that is he scheduled the most time to do it and few knew him and almost all knew the other two. Dillard second and Rutherford third. However, Dillard and Rutherford’s short speeches were much better than Rauner’s. And I had that confirmed by several attendees at the Lauzen picnic. I have compiled, and am continuing to compile, the real Rauner record at www.norauner.com He will lose the primary because of this record of huge giving to Democrats and the closeness of he and his second wife to the pro-abortion cause and Chicago Democrat Mayors Daley and Emanuel. That said his money keeps him alive for a while.

Comment by Jon Zahm Monday, Aug 12, 13 @ 10:09 am
Two quotes come to mind -

“The secret of success is sincerity. Once you can fake that you’ve got it made” - Jean Giraudoux, borrowed by George Burns.

“Rauner believes he is always the smartest person in the room” - unnamed elected official.

Rauner’s success will depend on how well he can hide these two qualities. He may just be smart enough and good enough at faking sincerity to do it.

Comment by Anonymous Monday, Aug 12, 13 @ 10:20 am
zatoichi,

Actually didn’t hear him speak to the whole big group most of what I observed (both personally) when he spoke with me and when he spoke with individuals at the event.

So for all I know he may be terrible speaking with a large group but one on one with a small group of people, he did quite well for a guy who has never run for office before.

Comment by OneMan Monday, Aug 12, 13 @ 10:24 am
Who was the last “smooth” talking and fake gubernatorial candidate? Blago?
If Rauner is truly willing to “blow” things up in Springfield, he has my vote.

Comment by Downstater Monday, Aug 12, 13 @ 10:25 am
Rauner has a good chance at winning the crowded GOP primary with his outsider message.

In the general he has a good chance if Quinn wins the Democratic primary. Quinn is the least popular governor of modern times and is seen as a failure by a majority of the electorate. Unfavorable views are hard to change which works to Quinn’s disadvantage no matter how much the political chatting class doesn’t think Rauner is Governor material, the electorate sometimes gets in a throw-the-bums-out mode that defies conventional wisdom.

Comment by Cassiopeia Monday, Aug 12, 13 @ 10:27 am
It would be “fun” to see Rauner “blow” things up, but working with a Democratically controlled legislature, all these Wisconsin and Indiana ideas… they won’t work.

Blago as a Dem with a Democratic legislature tried to “shake things up”, and we all know how that went.

Rauner, the GOP governor in that possibility won’t work, because the Dem Controlled legislature have “face cards” to shut down “Gov. Rauner” and his “7s and 8s”

Can’t govern that way, and after Rauner’s association with the likes of Democrats like Rich Daley, Rahm Emanuel, & Gov. Rendell - Rauner will fail and be exposed as a fraud and failure as a governor himself.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Aug 12, 13 @ 10:46 am
Rauner needs a running mate who knows the ins and outs of Springfield, and how state government actually operates. If he listens, he can be tough.

If he keeps mouthing right wing platitudes, and believes them, he won’t make it.

Comment by walkinfool Monday, Aug 12, 13 @ 11:04 am
===Rauner, the GOP governor in that possibility won’t work, because the Dem Controlled legislature have “face cards” to shut down “Gov. Rauner” and his “7s and 8s”===

Willy, you may be correct, but our state history has shown a GOP Governor and a Dem legislature have been more effective than when one party has total control. State history also shows GOP guvs softening from their tough campaign stances once they are in office.

Comment by Endangered Moderate Species Monday, Aug 12, 13 @ 11:17 am
- EMS -,

Here is the “rub”;

Rauner has no intention to work with the GA, and Rauner, in his own words, be in interviews, speeches, where or whenever.

Rauner wants to dictate how Illinois will be, not work with the Dem controlled GA like an Edgar, or a Ryan, or like the “master” Thompson.

Rauner is not about good divided government, Rauner is about blame, rule like a CEO over the Co-Equal partner instead of sharing the heavy lifting to get things done.

That is not Rauner, and that is also a recipe for a bad way to run a government.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Aug 12, 13 @ 11:25 am
The thing to watch with Rauner is not unlike Mitt Romney in 2012: how much he has to promise to the IL GOP’s most socially and economically conservative voters, in return for the nomination. I’m gonna be watching with interest their attempts to pin him down in the months to come.

Romney pinned himself down too much (especially on immigration) and he just lost the general. If Rauner has mastered the art of seeming empathetic while keeping his issue positions tactically vague, yes, he has a shot in the general.

Comment by ZC Monday, Aug 12, 13 @ 11:28 am
@Oswego Willy

I agree with your 11:25 am comment.

Unless the Republicans seriously erode the Democratic super-majority in the GA this cycle, Bruce Rauner could end up being a less effective Governor than Pat Quinn, an observation that boggles the mind.

Comment by Bill White Monday, Aug 12, 13 @ 11:57 am
- Bill White -,

Thanks.

What scares me is all these rabid “I hate all government, shake them to their core” Dopes is that both the supporters and the candidates never explain in practicality HOW they can govern the way their rhetoric requires, all the while run a government, constitutionally, or been seen as a partner willing to do what is best for the citizens, while not, not one bit, compromise to find a workable, vote and pass-able, sign-able, manner to move their agenda?

Never THAT answer, but boy, “we will get it done”..,

Can NOT govern that way, can’t.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Aug 12, 13 @ 12:23 pm
What’s rauners message besides wanting to stick it to government employees?

Comment by foster brooks Monday, Aug 12, 13 @ 12:49 pm
Excessive faith in the magical power of “market forces” allows politicians of a particular ilk to abdicate any and all responsibility for actually governing.

To rip off the South Park guys:

1. Loudly denounce “big gubmint” at every opportunity

2. ? ? ? ?

3. A successful and prosperous society

Then again, for those who seek to advance their personal ambitions rather than the public good, the above formula is proving to be disturbingly effective.

Comment by Bill White Monday, Aug 12, 13 @ 12:51 pm
I am not a Rauner fan I don’t think a far left candidate can win the GOP primary BUT with zero money how will he be exposed by the conservative candidates? I have heard Rauner in a closed room type scenario answer the “How will you work with the massive majorities the Democrats have?” and his answer was “The governor of Illinois is one of the most powerful offices in the country; I will only have to work with the GA if I want to spend more money! I don’t want to spend more I want to cut!” I have to say I wanted to stand up and shout Right On! Then I saw him shuck and jive around the life and marriage issues and pretend he doesn’t have to answer questions I thought if the guy had the stones to do what he said he was going to do; why is he afraid to answer social issue questions?

The funny thing is Rutherford will have to be the one to attack Rauner as a liberal and be the conservative to win. Rauner will counter calling him liberal on marriage.

Comment by votecounter Monday, Aug 12, 13 @ 1:01 pm
I still think Rauner will when the primary. I don’t think Rutherford or Dillard will be able to raise the money to paint him in a negative way.

The problem with Rauner is he still isn’t reaching out to people. I was in a local Spfld drinking establishment this past Saturday with 2 people who are known Republican supporters. One who was an operative for Rove and the other from Kankakee is more of a fundraiser/organizer. Both have reached out to Rauner camp to set stuff up and both haven’t really heard back. They aren’t looking for jobs or contracts but they just aren’t getting return calls from even staffers. This is bad news and the longer Ruaner keeps out the 3 - 4 digit check writers, the less of a chance he has.

Comment by So what? Monday, Aug 12, 13 @ 1:04 pm
- So what? -,

Rauner’s Crew had yet to reach out to the Con$ulting Firm, and we try to help him here every day… Until I go after him, but I though a guy wanting to “shake things up” would have reached out by now…

And yet, I wait to hear from Rauner’s Crew… every day.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Aug 12, 13 @ 1:18 pm
What’s this about Rauner’s “humble origins”?

He grew up in lily white Lake Forest, his father was a Motorola executive–back when that was a good company–and he went to prep magnet Dartmouth for college. Humble origins indeed.

Comment by Kwark Monday, Aug 12, 13 @ 2:02 pm
Kwark
He grew up in Deerfield not Lake Forest; they are close to each other in miles (Closer now because of sprawl) but nobody would have mistaken them back then. I don’t get your attack, just because a town is all white (Lilly white) it can’t be humble? Deerfield was on the border of Cook and Lake county it was a pretty regular small town in Illinois back then not a place of millionaires.

Comment by votecounter Monday, Aug 12, 13 @ 3:13 pm
Rauner went to Lake Forest HS. Before he moved to Scottsdale, AZ, also very upscale.

Comment by Kwark Monday, Aug 12, 13 @ 4:37 pm
@ foster brooks 12:49 - What’s rauners message besides wanting to stick it to government employees? -

He also wants to cripple the public schools.

Comment by olddog Monday, Aug 12, 13 @ 5:23 pm
Someday just for grins everybody here should do one of those handmade checklist thingies where you have two choices and you think about it and then you put the pros and cons of each of the choices down in adjoining columns. Do that for a Rauner- Daley matchup or a Quinn-Rutherford matchup just for example. Make other configurations, too, and try to look at it objectively. From all angles. Especially and truly try to look beyond the raw partisan party label. I think you may find that both Rauner and Rutherford and to a lesser degree DILlard, come out very well against the two current leading Dem candidates who have considerable baggage. Poor governor Quinn really does not have much in the way of “pros” in his column at all.

Comment by Responsa Monday, Aug 12, 13 @ 6:39 pm
–Poor governor Quinn really does not have much in the way of “pros” in his column at all.–

Except he’s the only one out of all of them who’s ever been elected governor.

Comment by wordslinger Monday, Aug 12, 13 @ 6:43 pm
Any way ya shake it, even if he has some of that calm, cool, collected smoothness demeanor to him (which often does work, but can also be a real Turn-Off to some folks, because from ANY Politician, particularly the Super-WEALthy who people know BOUGHT themselves into even BEing in the Contest, just seems fake somehow), no doubt, it’ll sure be an interesting Primary race to observe between Labor Day and March…!

Comment by Just The Way It Is One Monday, Aug 12, 13 @ 7:33 pm
–Poor governor Quinn really does not have much in the way of “pros” in his column at all.–

Except, he doesn’t want to dismantle our public schools.

Comment by Bill White Monday, Aug 12, 13 @ 9:54 pm
Just saw the Daily Show, and don’t underestimate Rand Paul, either. He has a lot of Bill Clinton in him — charm a possum out of a tree.

Very well done. The dude’s a player, much more so than the other Fab Freshmen like Cruz and Rubio.

I’m guessing Christie vs. Paul. After evangelical-caucus Iowa, Santorum will implode into his medieval mess in Live Free or Die Yankee New Hampshire.

Love the folks at my old home in Iowa, but love all Yankees outside the Bronx more.

I’ve had issues with both Christie and Paul, but they both have a lot of guts, too.

I’m willing to listen.

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Aug 13, 13 @ 12:49 am