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The Lisa Madigan letter, the Sorich verdicts and the various media scoops have all combined to shake up this election season yet again. But will it mean that much in the end?

Time to take another assessment of the chances of both Rod Blagojevich and Judy Baar Topinka. Have at it.

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Jul 11, 06 @ 5:39 am

Comments

we’ve started issues canvassing again, and while asking the standard politician id question, we’re also asking if people are happy with how the guv is doing his job. not getting a lot of positive responses on that one (for the completed questionaires i’ve actually looked at). my favorite response was where the voter assumed blagojevich was a republican because of the scandals in springfield!

but judy’s not getting a lot of positives, either. driving up her negatives so that she’s not a credible alternative still remains an obvious campaign strategy.

judy’s chances really depend on when she starts spending money, responding to the guv’s attacks. everybody knows that the battleground is the collar counties, which is chicago media.

the guv’s chances center around turnout in the city and driving judy into a hole. the media strategy is clearly working, but the big question remains, can he turn people out to vote in his strongholds? blagojevich hasn’t exactly shown any savvy in field ops, so you have two weak candidates/organizations going head-to-head. it’s not just the lesser of two evils, it’s also the strongest of two weak campaigns.

i still get the impression that republicans are counting on patrick fitzgerald to deliver the election for them…

Comment by bored now Tuesday, Jul 11, 06 @ 6:45 am
He could almost guarantee reelection if he called the legislature back for a special session that successfully reformed state government ethics and corruption laws.

The question is whether his own party would support him in such an effort now, or would it die in the House?

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Jul 11, 06 @ 6:55 am
I think this race leans toward Judy… if she can capitalize on Blago’s mess. At this point, I think any other GOP gubernatorial candidate (Oberweis, Brady, Gidwitz) would be about where Judy is simply because they would be out there criticizing everyday and have the money to do it. Maybe, maybe not. But the feeling of this race is, if Blago were up against Satan himself, I would say the race “leans Satan.” It’ll probably be a close election, fraud or not….

Comment by Lovie's Leather Tuesday, Jul 11, 06 @ 6:55 am
P.S. It is nice to no longer hear the stupid “Judy is a lightweight, Blago will mop the floor with her.” I was getting so sick of that crap!

Comment by Lovie's Leather Tuesday, Jul 11, 06 @ 6:56 am
I agree with a recent Chicago Tribune editorial, after 3 and a half years, isnt the policy of blame all of the scandles on the previous administrationg getting a little old? at what point do Rod grow up (or grow a pair) and take repsonsibility for his own actions and those of his people HE hired. People in Illinois are sick of this kind of thing, and I think once Judy starts in and the investigations continue into just how bad Rod is truly is then Judy does stand a good chance of winning, it will be close but she can do it. However if the people of Illinois are dumb enough to fall for an education plan we cant pay for, a pre-school plan we cant pay for, an insurance plan we cant pay for, no raised income taxes but thousands of fee increases, and underfudning our state workers pensions then they deserve everything they get in Rod second term

Comment by Illinois Observer Tuesday, Jul 11, 06 @ 7:00 am
It depends if all of this is close to election when the masses are paying attention.Has anyone seen any current polls,not the ones taken by the canidates,showing where everyone is.If Blago is still sitting in the same spot in the polls after all the money he spent he has a real problem.

Comment by DOWNSTATE Tuesday, Jul 11, 06 @ 7:02 am
As a downstate voter who voted for Blago, I am looking reasons why I should vote for Topinka. Blago so far has only offered very weak and partially distorted ads for why I should vote against her (but not for him). The recent news about hiring practices only confirms what I had heard thru the grapevine via disgruntled and demoralized state employees. It is very unlikely that I will vote for Blago again. I am waiting to hear from Judy, but I am not going out of my way to search out what she can offer. If she can dish out some straight talk, I’ll listen. If she reflects too much Illinois political BS, I’ll be staying at home. And the visits from the big GOP boys from Washington doesn’t help you gain any credence. What I need to know is how much Springfield has washed off on you, not how much Washington can add to the dirty laundry.

Comment by vole Tuesday, Jul 11, 06 @ 7:09 am
Hey, let’s all remember to put an asterick on this discussion. We’re backsliding if we prejudge the contest strictly as a Blago/JBT race.

If — IF — they make the ballot, Rich Whitney and the Greens could make this election VERY interesting.

Comment by Rube Brick Tuesday, Jul 11, 06 @ 7:12 am
I think voters will do one of 4 things on election day:

1. Not vote at all.
2. Vote for Blago.
3. Vote for JBT.
4. Skip the Gov’s race and vote for other offices.

I think we will see alot of #4.

Comment by North Side Reporter Tuesday, Jul 11, 06 @ 7:45 am
pretty good analysis by North Side Reporter. You omitted #5 which would be “vote for a 3d candidate/write-in” which I plan on doing if Stufflebeam is on the ballot. Did Jeff Trigg make it?

Comment by Ravenswood Right Winger Tuesday, Jul 11, 06 @ 8:07 am
Observer,

“grow a pair”–are you kidding me?? with his testicular virility?!!

Comment by corvax Tuesday, Jul 11, 06 @ 8:27 am
I was going to say that it doesn’t matter until after Labor Day, but these aforementioned events are earthshattering events.

It seems more a question of when, not if, Blago will be indicted. That is certain to level the playing field or even end Blago’s run depending on the timing.

Comment by Schiznitz Tuesday, Jul 11, 06 @ 8:37 am
I kind of agree with all these people who wished we had a third choice other than Judy & Rod. The way I look at it is sometime in the next year Rod will be ensnared in some federal indictment. So a vote for Rod is really a vote for Pat Quinn for Governor. Its the only way he ever gets to be governor and I don’t mind if Judy is my only other choice (never thought I would day that!). So I am voting for Pat (punching Rod).

Comment by Niles Township Tuesday, Jul 11, 06 @ 9:10 am
Judy’s gaining steam with GWB’s visit, Guiliani’s and, soon, McCain’s. All she needs is a platform and she is ready for takeoff.

Comment by Go JBT Tuesday, Jul 11, 06 @ 9:35 am
Blagojevich would have had a tough reelection without Fitzgerald. He ran in 2002 as a fresh start, a big smile, and Chicago connections. Voters pinned a lot of hope on him. His paper thin credibility and his lack of detail nearly did him in. He lost a 20 point lead in 2002 against a guy with the same name as the corrupted incumbant, and who shared a ticket with Keyes within a imploded GOP.

Once in, Rod faced a deficit, a recession, and novices at every level. Rod is lazy, so unlike Thompson, he didn’t study. Rod’s background precludes work; he married into power politics, and did the jobs handed to him, including Governor from his father in law. So right away we see a character with major governing flaws dropped into office at a very challenging time.

He hobbled himself with unrealistic tax promises. His administration was the guinea pig for a newly governing party. He arrived late at most functions, broke promises to fellow Democrats, and was caught behaving like a blinged out pimp with his entourage and buddies. As voters watched, he fiddled and begged for cash instead of governing.

He might have made an OK caretaker governor, but we now see that he was mismatched for the times. As a result, he overstayed his welcome by the time his fund-raising became an issue and he pompously claimed “testicular virility”.

Without Fitzgerald, Blagojevich would be in trouble anyway. Voters could practically see him thinking as he proposed grand social programs with magical funding, claimed magical savings from existing government programs, and gave excuses for selling off the state’s education assets for a quick fix of funds he would spend.

With Fitzgerald, he’s through. Unlike Ryan in 1998, Blagojevich has a prosecutor saying in writing that there is hiring fraud and credible evidence of misconduct. It is serious.

The national GOP has figured out that this race is now theirs to lose. They have kept their powder dry, (of what there is), and will let Blagojevich swing on the rope he created until they feel they need to finish the job. Even with all his campaign stash, Rod can’t buy credibility enough to pull this off. It is now Topinka’s to lose.

Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Jul 11, 06 @ 9:39 am
Close down this comment section–Vanilla Man has said it all…I do wonder how big an impact the Greens will have–it could make for a Dem upset for sure…

Comment by Bondi Girl Tuesday, Jul 11, 06 @ 9:51 am
I’d still bet on Blago unless there’s an indictment of a high level official that directly implicates the governor himself. Four months to go. It will be interesting.

Comment by The Centrist Tuesday, Jul 11, 06 @ 10:22 am
Although, I am supporting and working for the reelection of Governor Blagojevich I agree with Niles Township that the prospect of Governor Quinn is not unattractive,in the event that Rod is unable to serve his full second term because of legal problems. Governor Quinn would be far better competent and effective than Governor Topinka. So let’s give Rod (or Dick Mell) some credit for choosing a competent, if not well-
liked Lieutenant Governor/running mate.

I imagine some Democrats aspiring to higher office might not be pleased by the potential ascension of Pat Quinn.

Comment by Captain America Tuesday, Jul 11, 06 @ 10:37 am
Bring back Poshard, how foolish many were for being duped by the same folks we all now complain about.

Comment by aidanquinn Tuesday, Jul 11, 06 @ 10:47 am
aidanquinn–
If the media had been half as hard on George Ryan during the 98 election as they are on Blago, Poshard would have been able to raise enough money to win.

VanillaMan might be right in his analysis, but I hate to see factual inaccuracies, so I have to point out that Keyes was on the ticket in 2004, not on the same ticket as Jim Ryan. The imploded GOP might have started during election season 2002, but it wasn’t official until after the 02 election when JBT was the only Rep. to win.

Comment by winco Tuesday, Jul 11, 06 @ 10:56 am
We have the power - but rarely if ever use it at the ballot box.
Sadly the people of Illinois - specially those North of I-80 vote as they are told. How else do these same families just keep winning?
And voting for Rod in hopes of getting Quinn is just stupid.

Comment by Mr. Ethics Tuesday, Jul 11, 06 @ 11:12 am
Rod still has it at this point, but I think it’s basically a party line vote as neither of the major party candidates is particularly inspiring.

I don’t think Bush, Giuliani, or McCain are really doing JBT any favors. Fitzgerald is definately not doing Rod any good. All in all, it looks bad for Illinois.

Comment by doubtful Tuesday, Jul 11, 06 @ 11:57 am
I voted for Poshard and never believed GRyan’s claim that he had nothing to do with the deaths of the Willis children. POSHARD WAS RIGHT. As for all the rhetoric about Blogo, Vanilla Man, you are the voice for all of us who cannot put our thoughts into words. Your posting is well thought out and in my opinion, you are capable of putting the last nail in Blogo’s coffin. Keep up the good work. I’m listing to everything you have to say.

Comment by Little Egypt Tuesday, Jul 11, 06 @ 12:21 pm
Folks, its JULY, not October. Many, many miles to go, and the path is sure to take many turns. Confident sounding election predictions are mere vanity at this point.

That being said, I do think three points are true:

1. JBT is gathering some momentum, and is begining to weather the storm of negative ads.

2. JBT’s problem is that much of her traction is coming from external sources, such as Blago’s problems, and visits by national GOP stars, not internal ones like a snappy campaign and strong positions. She has been hobbled by low fundraising to date, but that cloud may also be going away, as the RNC has apparently concluded that she can win with proper financing.

3. Blago’s problems are not going away, and will only get worse. I do think there will a key indictment by Election Day, maybe more than one. After 1998, I think the Feds will neither accelerate, nor delay indictments because of the election.

Right now? Blago ahead by 4-5 points, down from a spike of 8-9 after the ads started, with Judy still closing on him.

Long term, this remains Judy’s race to win or lose.

Comment by Bubs Tuesday, Jul 11, 06 @ 1:27 pm
One wildcard in the race is whether or not the John —> Todd Stoger debacle will resonate with Cook County voters and cause a backlash again Dem candidates. If the suburbs turnout heavy to show their disgust JBT could benefit greatly.

Comment by Bluefish Tuesday, Jul 11, 06 @ 2:38 pm
People keep writing that they think it will still be Blago winning… Is there any credible evidence out there other than a gut feeling???

Comment by Lovie's Leather Tuesday, Jul 11, 06 @ 2:41 pm
Forgot to add that turnout in the west and north sides of the city could also be depressed if feeling are hurt during the “slating” next week. Again, this would help JBT.

Comment by Bluefish Tuesday, Jul 11, 06 @ 2:50 pm
lovie asks why other’s gut feeling is different than his gut feeling. of course, i don’t understand why he’s so eager to overlook a rather massive fundraising advantage. or the fact that rod’s the incumbent. or how illinois feels about george bush. or the fact that the odds-makers don’t seem to rank the illinois guv’s race in the competitive category: the fix, where illinois doesn’t even make the list; charlie cook, rates illinois as likely dem.

but i have no doubt that lovie trusts his gut feeling more than he trusts mine and your’s. i’m sure there’s some reason why his gut is so skewed…

Comment by bored now Tuesday, Jul 11, 06 @ 3:52 pm
I think that the strong Democrat names on the ticket will bring the voters out in Chicago. Blagojevich, Quinn, Madigan, Hynes, White, possibly another Stroger, and Dart will ensure massive Democrat turn out. The Dâ€™s have some pretty popular people running.

Also, I think that the Mayor could possibly play a part in this. He might want to prove to the people of Chicago that heâ€™s not as damaged as some think. He could turn the switch on and flood the precincts with workers. Heâ€™s been known to turn a few voters out.

In addition to the Republicans not being overly thrilled about their statewide ticket, the right wing of the party isnâ€™t going to turn out for Judy.

Just my opinion.

Comment by B Hicks Tuesday, Jul 11, 06 @ 3:57 pm
B Hicks, his massive fundraising hasn’t proved to do anything for him so far if he can’t get anywhere in the polls airing commercials this early… and he is a horribly unpopular incumbent… and just for your info, Judy is not George W. Don’t pretend that the voters are absolutely ignorant. And who knows, Judy is liberal enough to pull straight-dem voters to just vote for one republican…. If you uh actually read my first post, you would know that I think it is impossible to tell this early. If you want my gut feeling, fine, Judy 53 Rod 47. There, you have my gut feeling. But it doesn’t mean squat because it is way too early to tell! Geez, did you bother to read my first post? Second, are you trying to skew my opinion or are you not smart enough to realize what meant?!

Comment by Lovie's Leather Tuesday, Jul 11, 06 @ 4:42 pm
uhg, not B hicks, sorry. Bored now. That is what I get for not proofreading… sorry B.

Comment by Lovie's Leather Tuesday, Jul 11, 06 @ 4:43 pm
For the Greens, breaking 5% is the critical threshhold. If the Greens break 5% the party achieves major party status. This makes it much easier for Greens to qualify for the ballot in 2008.

It also means the Greens will qualify for a presidential primary in Illinois.

Larry Redmond got about 2.8% as the Reform Party nominee in 1998 (Ryan beat Poshard), IIRC.

IMO, the Greens would really have to screw-up not to break 5% against Blagojevich and Topinka.

I don’t think Topinka can break 48%, so her winning formula is to get the Greens into the race enough that it cuts Blagojevich down to 47% or less, but not to get the Greens too much exposure. If the Greens get too much exposure and become a somewhat viable reform option it will cut into JBT’s numbers too.

JBT bringing Bush to Illinois was a mistake. Hastert should have raised the money for her instead. Even Cheney would have been better. Blagojevich can link her to Ryan and Bush which pretty much undercuts any of her claims to wanting to reform “the system”.

Comment by Carl Nyberg Tuesday, Jul 11, 06 @ 4:50 pm
Without any new Blago related indictments being announced before the election here’s what I’m seeing.

Blagojevich 43-54 (lowest number is 43 and highest is 54)
Topinka 38-48
Rich Whitney 4-16

Comment by Carl Nyberg Tuesday, Jul 11, 06 @ 4:55 pm
lovie: i tried to make clear which post i was responding to. did i read your first post? sure. did i respond to it? no. if i was expected to link the two, then you assumed incorrectly.

i’m not sure i agree with you about the effects of rod’s early advertising. seems to me (without looking it up) that the guv’s numbers have improved since his early gen e ad blitz began. i’ve long said that we’ll have to wait until judy files her d2 to see what is the real impact of this strategy.

an objective reader would note that i didn’t say (or even infer) that judy was president bush — i merely noted that voters throughout illinois are looking for a way to send bush a message. and those who support bush are the same ones who seem to be the most alienated from judy. will conservatives vote for topinka? not the ones i’ve talked to in the last six weeks. (i know, i know, voters don’t matter, yada yada yada.) will illinois voters who want to mark their displeasure with the president vote for the guv (especially in areas where there’s no competitive congressional race)? it’s certainly possible. i think judy’s prospects rest as much on bush’s ratings as they do on her’s.

obviously, i noted in the very first post that blagojevich is unpopular. which is no doubt why he intends to drive judy into the ground. it will be interesting to see how effective they are at this, but at least the guv’s campaign has a solid, proven strategy. that’s more than you can say about topinka. she’s been less than impressive as a candidate (remember that i haven’t lived in illinois long enough to have a legacy impression of her; her ineptitude is what i witness now.)

as for judy pulling blue voters to crossover, i can only assume that you are unaware how small the swing electorate has become. judy can’t win without energizing the conservative base, and she can’t appeal to independents and soft dems if she does. that’s not exactly a dilemma i’d want to face.

to reiterate, you asked: People keep writing that they think it will still be Blago winningâ€¦ Is there any credible evidence out there other than a gut feeling???

there’s lots of reasons to think that rod will win, whether or not he actually deserves to. you seem oblivious to these facts, prefering your own assessment. that’s fine. but don’t assume other people overlook the rather substantial evidence out there that you chose to ignore…

Comment by bored now Tuesday, Jul 11, 06 @ 5:13 pm
The right wing of the Republican party must come out for JBT. “Virgin-verility” is on the ropes.

Comment by todd Tuesday, Jul 11, 06 @ 5:25 pm
The conservatives will come out for Topinka as long as she looks to stay to the right of Blago. She can appeal to moderates and conservatives. If there is no other option rather than the main two, the conservatives will end up voting for the lesser of 2 evils. It is early now kids, let’s wait and see what happens. Just let the next 4 months of Blago pool in people’s minds, they will hold their noses and vote Topinka. That is, unless Topinka skrews it up. Chances of that are about 50/50. It appears to be her race to lose…. but it is still too early to really tell….

Comment by Lovie's Leather Tuesday, Jul 11, 06 @ 5:57 pm
FWIW I predict indictments immediately after the State Fair. But that’s just a wild guess.

VanillaMan: I don’t always agree with you 100 percent but you summed it up nicely today. Blagojevich is a cunning guy, but not a smart one; rather than basing his financial and budget policy on books by Friedman or Smith, he chose one by JK Rowling.

Comment by Whizzo the clown Tuesday, Jul 11, 06 @ 6:08 pm
I think many conservatives actually believe in their issues. The GOP however, is more and more brazen in its cynicism. I’m not sure Team W can count on the loyalty of the true believers with W’s approval so low.

But as bored now points out, the GOP can’t win with just GOP voters. JBT’s winning strategy is to get a respectable number of reform Dems to defect from Blagojevich to the Greens while limiting her own defections. She’s got a difficult needle to thread.

Comment by Carl Nyberg Tuesday, Jul 11, 06 @ 6:10 pm
No problem, Love. You can call me Bobby.

I still think you’re wrong.

Comment by B Hicks Tuesday, Jul 11, 06 @ 8:53 pm
Meh, everyone thinks I am wrong. I am a Republican. I just personally stuff the ballot boxes in everywhere in America. But I leave entertaining people like Ted Kennedy, Nancy Pelosi, and Rod Blagojevich around just for a good laugh…

Comment by Lovie's Leather Tuesday, Jul 11, 06 @ 9:00 pm
I’m a republican. I’d like to vote for Judy. But she seems dumber than Blago

Comment by eddie james Tuesday, Jul 11, 06 @ 9:15 pm
Daley: It wasn’t all a sham.
Nixon: I am not a crook.

Maybe just a little sham?

Comment by Ignatius J. Reily Tuesday, Jul 11, 06 @ 9:19 pm
Ignatius, what was Nixon convicted of?

Comment by Lovie's Leather Tuesday, Jul 11, 06 @ 10:17 pm
By consensus: Lying

Soon to include Da Mare

Comment by Ignatius J. Reily Tuesday, Jul 11, 06 @ 10:21 pm
Oh come on Lovie’sLeather…Nixon resigned before facing certain impeachment and removal from office, and was pardoned before facing certain indictment by the special prosecuter…do you not remember that the Watergate grand jury named him an “unidicted co-conspirator” in Feb 1974??? (the thinking was a sitting President could not be indicted until removed from offic) I guess it’s no suprise that history repeats itself, with such poor memory of the past.

Comment by Anon... Tuesday, Jul 11, 06 @ 10:28 pm
Get it?

Comment by Ignatius J. Reily Tuesday, Jul 11, 06 @ 10:30 pm
to all the Pat Quinn lovers (I have no idea why you would like the slimeball) why don’t you look past the “great job” he has done as lt. guv (a basically figurehead only position) and remember back to how he almost ruined the Treasurer’s office and left JBT to clean up the scraps

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Jul 11, 06 @ 10:38 pm
Pat Quinn? Is he Irish?

Comment by Ignatius J. Reily Tuesday, Jul 11, 06 @ 10:40 pm
Nixon was a man convicted by the media just like the Duke La Crosse team. It was such an aweful media frenzy. That was the beginning of ego-journalism in America. It became anything for a cheap story and has been that way ever since. Remember what the media did to Reagan, Clinton, and now W? They savaged them. Reagan survived because he had personality. Clinton did too. But Nixon, always hated by the media, was never cut any slack. He was hounded to no end. And now because public perception is that he committed a crime, he is automatically guilty. I think it is a shame that he never did get his day in court… a chance to clear his name of wrongdoing. Unfortunately, Nixon had to resign for the good of the country. And Ford had to pardon him for the good of the country. It cost Ford the ‘76 election. Now we just sit around and bash a man who has been dead for 11 years so dogmatically. He was a great president. He did a lot for this country when it comes to foreign and fiscal policy. Now all that he is remembered for is, “I am not a crook.” Well, prove to me that he was a crook. Never tried, never convicted. Same thing with Clinton when it came to Whitewater and the rape allegation, never tried, never convicted. So let’s not speak of Tricky Dick and Slick Willy as if they are aweful people. It turns my stomach how much people believe what they hear on the idiot box or what they hear from their “teacher.” But I don’t expect you to understand. Just keep watching O’Reilly, I am sure you’ll be fine….

Comment by Lovie's Leather Tuesday, Jul 11, 06 @ 11:00 pm
Wow. Nixon had knowledge of a crime and lied about it. Our current homegrown crop– Daley and Blagojevich should now be wondering if history is in fact prologue. Forget the conviction. How ’bout the election?

Comment by Ignatius J. Reily Tuesday, Jul 11, 06 @ 11:19 pm
Lovie…I’m a registered Republican, and it has nothing to do with the idiot box, or teachers. Many members of the Watergate grand jury (emphasis on “grand jury”..not media pundits or party partisians) were Republicans, some even Nixon supporters, but when they heard of all the crap he was pulling, they wanted to indict him in a heartbeat. The media frenzy is going to be there, no matter what. What killed Nixon was the fact that 1) He let his “men” commit all of these dirty, and even criminal acts, when there really was no reason for it to ensure his reelection. and 2) When the criminal acts became public he decided to lie and cover up, instead of just coming clean. (Clinton lied…about a tryst with a 21 year old. Dissapointing or even digusting for many, but the event that he lied about was not a federal crime). To say that just because Nixon was never convicted means that he wasn’t a criminal displays a total lack of understanding what the man and his people where doing.
If you can’t accept that, then take this…Nixon was stupid enough to tape everything that was being said (in the Oval Office) then didn’t destroy the tapes when the scandel started to erupt. If there had been no tapes, he almost surely would have least survived his term. The man had only himself to blame.
Yes, Nixon certainly wasn’t the first, nor last politician to lie about and try to cover up a crime. Gov Ryan is about to get what’s coming to him, and hopefully Daley and Blagojevich will get what’s coming to them. Until we learn to elect politicians that can level with the public instead of fool, trick, or connive, we will continue to have these scandels and media frenzy’s…

Comment by Anon... Wednesday, Jul 12, 06 @ 4:05 pm
Benedictum

Comment by Ignatius J. Reily Wednesday, Jul 12, 06 @ 6:42 pm