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* UPDATED x1 * Incomes rise, but poverty still big problem

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* First the good news…

Illinois was one of just four states where the median household income rose last year, while Missouri and Virginia were the only ones that saw a decline. That income level in Illinois rose 1.4 percent to $55,137, while neighboring Missouri’s fell 1.6 percent to $45,321.

* Now the bad…

The latest federal data show that 14.7 percent of Illinoisans - 1.85 million people or one in seven residents of the state - were in poverty last year, down slightly from the 15 percent, or 1.88 million, in 2011. The national rate also remained discouragingly stuck at 15 percent - affecting 46.5 million Americans and marking the sixth year in a row the U.S. rate failed to improve.

* And the numbers might even be worse than depicted…

Illinois saw such a slight easing, coinciding with a drop in the state’s unemployment rate to 8.9 percent last year from 9.7 percent in 2011 and 10.4 percent in 2010, when Illinois’ jobless ranks were the highest since 1983, according the Illinois Department of Employment Security. Illinois’ seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for July was 9.2 percent.

With the increased unemployment rate, poverty may be again on the rise.

* Also this…

The breadth of Illinois’ poverty on a local level remains murky, given that census figures released Thursday only focused on counties with populations of at least 65,000, which in Illinois number just 23 of the state’s 102 counties. Those did not include most counties in largely rural southern Illinois, where high unemployment and poverty have notoriously deep roots.

*** UPDATE *** More bad news.

The Illinois Department of Employment Security reports today that the state’s unemployment rate for August was unchanged at 9.2 percent.

Oy.

posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Sep 19, 13 @ 11:27 am

Comments

I don’t think these state economic studies reveal too much, especially for large diverse states like Illinois.

Seriously, Barrington, Englewood and Metropolis might as well be on other planets for all that being in the same state — or state government — have to do with their economic situations.

The state border is an artificial line in the dirt that really doesn’t factor on folks economic situations.

Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Sep 19, 13 @ 11:37 am
When average income rises but poverty is up, that can only mean one thing — income inequality is getting worse.

Another argument for the fair tax, to ease the squeeze on working folks while enuring those at the top finally pay their share.

Comment by Reality Check Thursday, Sep 19, 13 @ 11:43 am
Median household incomes in the USA have fallen for the past five years. What really should concern us is the lack of good jobs for our citizens.

Comment by Ruby Thursday, Sep 19, 13 @ 12:08 pm
I’m confused. How does “The latest federal data show that 14.7 percent of Illinoisans - 1.85 million people or one in seven residents of the state - were in poverty last year, down slightly from the 15 percent, or 1.88 million, in 2011.” get summarized in the title as an INCREASE in poverty? Am I missing something?

Comment by Idol Curiosity Thursday, Sep 19, 13 @ 12:14 pm
So much for the hyperbole about people with money fleeing the state.

Comment by Bill White Thursday, Sep 19, 13 @ 12:16 pm
Given these dismal numbers, it’s shocking that no Dem. wants to primary Quinn.

Comment by Whatever Thursday, Sep 19, 13 @ 12:18 pm
Won’t these numbers get worse when the construction season wraps up and the seasonal labor returns to unemployment?

Comment by Pete Thursday, Sep 19, 13 @ 12:45 pm
This is median, not mean income, so growing inequality at the top shouldn’t bias this number. What I fear we’re seeing though, is the trend where the very rich are doing great and at the 50th percentile things are picking up a bit, but there’s a big and growing “underclass” that is becoming increasingly stuck in place, more so even than in the past. It’s really hard to climb out of the bottom quintile these days, and I am worried in the future that might be more like the bottom third.

Comment by ZC Thursday, Sep 19, 13 @ 12:46 pm
Idol Curiosity -

“poverty still big problem” Where in that phrase does the word increase, in any of it’s forms, appear?

Comment by dupage dan Thursday, Sep 19, 13 @ 12:52 pm
@Pete - when you read the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) reports, you will find that they issue a variety of numbers including seasonally adjusted (based on a mathematical formula) and non-seasonally adjusted figures.

The general rule of thumb is that when discussing unemployment numbers, seasonally-adjusted numbers are used by the media and others to avoid exactly the sort of statistical whiplash you describe.

That way we can try to get a real sense of what is happening in the labor force and the economy at large by using the seasonally adjusted figures.

Comment by Formerly Known As... Thursday, Sep 19, 13 @ 12:56 pm
== Illinois was one of just four states where the median household income rose last year ==

If Democrats are solely to blame for all the bad news, then do Dems solely get the credit for the good news too? Silly question, I know, because there’s no such thing as consistency in political arguments.

Comment by reformer Thursday, Sep 19, 13 @ 12:59 pm
reformer,

How can income rising be good news? Reality Check says it is proof of greater income inequality.

Since that happened on the dems watch, do they get tarred with that, too?

Comment by dupage dan Thursday, Sep 19, 13 @ 1:08 pm
Just curious what’s the unemployment rate downstate?

Comment by foster brooks Thursday, Sep 19, 13 @ 1:18 pm
foster–

Here it is by county–
http://www.ides.illinois.gov/Custom/Library/Statistic/LAUS/ILCountyMonthlyUnemploymentRateRanking/countyrank.PDF
It is for the month of July 2013

Comment by Nearly Normal Thursday, Sep 19, 13 @ 1:25 pm
OK.
So 6 of the 10 ten counties with high un-employment rates are boarding other states.
I’m curious what the neighboring counties are seeing for unemployment. See below.

1. Macon - Northeast of Springfield.
2. Franklin - Northeast of Carbondale.
3. Hardin (12.8%) - Chittenden County Kentucky(8.3%).
4. Perry - North of Carbondale.
5. Alexander (12.1%) - Scott County Missouri (7.4%).
6T.Marion (11.9%)- Southwest of Effingham
6T.Pulaski (11.9%)- Ballard County Ky (9.3%)
6T.Union (11.9%)- Cape Girardeau County Mo (6.8%)
9. Vermillion (11.8%) - Warren County IN (6.5%)Vermillion County IN (10.5%)
10. Grundy (11.6%) - East of Ottawa.

So this data begs the question. Why are our neighbors doing better with similar geographical constraints?

Is it because the labor force lives across the border and commutes to work in IL?
Are all the business and people located in that neigboring state?
Are unemployment benefits better in IL that the unemployed relocate and set up shop in IL?
Are people claiming unemployment, but are actually employed?
Are some counties better at enrolling the unemployed than others?

At first I thought that our Southern counties were just living in the backwoods without developed infrastructure until I looked at the neighboring counties of other states.

Then I expected this to just be in the south, but was very surprised to see Vermillion, Grundy, and Macon on the list.

After taking a quick look at these numbers, I think the state has a responsibilty to mobilize an effort to lower the unemployement rate to within a percentage of our neighboring counties. I’m not sure what the income tax agreements are between neighboring states, but I can image that some of this inequality might be due to some existing agreements?

http://tax.illinois.gov/QuestionsAndAnswers/12.htm

Comment by Pete Thursday, Sep 19, 13 @ 2:20 pm
Pete: The data is and a comparison of the factors causing it would be interesting. It would probably be more compelling if all the counties adjoining another state had similiar situation (i.e. even counties not among the highest). Has anyone looked at that?

Comment by Logic not emotion Thursday, Sep 19, 13 @ 2:40 pm
Those people in illinois must be doing pretty well with their 1.4% increase in median income, right?

Let’s not talk about the 66% increase in state income tax or the 10.4% increase in real estate tax in Chicago….or the 15~75% increase in public transportation fares, doubling of parking cost and tolls, increase in water bills, etc.

No-no-no, no inflation here why the cpi numbers say so. just look at them see — you’re dreaming. it’s all a dream. I don’t know where your money is going with that 1.4% increase in median income. there must be something wrong with you people in illinois cuz looking at these news stories you’re doing fine.

/sarcasm

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Sep 19, 13 @ 3:33 pm
Well apparently someone can’t handle the truth. Where’d the post go that shows ThE CURRENT USDA numbers on Illinois food stamp caseloads that reports over 2 million? http://www.fns.usda.gov/pd/29snapcurrpp.htm

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Sep 19, 13 @ 3:42 pm
@Pete - that is curious. A broader sample size may reveal a noteworthy trend or absolutely nothing, but it would be interesting to see.

There are stark differences in tax, economic, poverty, education, housing, health, etc. policies determined simply by living on one side or another of a border line. Those differences may be visibly manifesting in the different unemployment rates of neighboring counties.

As @wordslinger alludes to, there isn’t usually much difference in the natural terrain or people of neighboring areas divided by “an artificial line in the dirt”. The differences, more often than not, tend to be man-made differences in policies and laws.

Comment by Formerly Known As... Thursday, Sep 19, 13 @ 4:00 pm
@Pete - I just checked the counties bordering each other along the WI-IL border.

Every Illinois county has a higher unemployment rate than the Wisconsin county it borders. Not much, but something additional that supports your initial findings.

The Wisconsin unemployment rates by county are at: http://worknet.wisconsin.gov/worknet_info/maps/pdf/uRatesCo.pdf

Comment by Formerly Known As... Thursday, Sep 19, 13 @ 4:12 pm
In reality what we have is this.

The non-farm payroll totals today are no higher then they were in 1998 fifteen years ago.

All this while Illinois population has increased by about 800,000 people from 12 mil to 12.88 mil.

Roughly the Illinois non-farm payroll is close to 6 mil and so 3 mil make more than the median wage and 3 million make less. 2.15 million are on food stamps and there’s 6 million people not even in the workforce.

Since 2008, food stamp caseload in Illinois have risen from 1.3 million to 2.1 million which means we are adding about 20,000 people a year to the program. Well beyond the so-called jobs being created.

For about every 2.77 people working in illinois there is one person on food stamps.

And since Jan 2013 the labor force in illinois has declined by 100K as people give up and are no longer counted as unemployed.

feels good?

Rockford has recently been declared as The “Foreclosure Capitol of the USA” it has so many abandon and boarded-up and underwater homes.

Google it!

The so-called 1.4% increase in median wages don’t even offset the recent 66% increase in state income tax. Do the math. Forget about all the other fines, fees, fares and increases that has crashed our disposable income in Illinois.

Yeah Illinois is only one in four state…hlah..blah..hoo-ray!

How many states have increased their taxes to the levels Illinois has? One in how many??

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Sep 19, 13 @ 5:19 pm
I think that would be the best place to start.
Work from the outside in.
We could start with Kentucky and compare policies.
When I first looked at this, I expected the unemployment in KY to be around the same as our counties. I was very surprised to see under 10% there. Again, this could be skewed if people live in KY and work in IL.
Which would make sense if we’re business friendly with a higher cost of living.

I’d also be curious to see how many jobs were dependent on agriculture and if a shift to corn for ethanol has changed the labor demand from traditional labor required to package feed corn.

Comment by Pete Thursday, Sep 19, 13 @ 5:23 pm
@Anonymous.

This is strictly the unemployed numbers. I think the taxes and policies you refer to would be better checked against underemployed numbers. The working poor. Those are the people that suffer the most under the higher income tax.

Comment by Pete Thursday, Sep 19, 13 @ 5:29 pm
ddan
A rising median income hardly demonstrates growing income inequality. Would you really prefer a declining median income?? BTW, do you think growing income inequality is a bad thing?

Comment by reformer Thursday, Sep 19, 13 @ 5:45 pm
I hope the slight income rise is based on real dollars, not for nominal dollars.

If it is based on data in nominal dollars, 2% inflation in 2012 would negate any real income increase.

Comment by cod Thursday, Sep 19, 13 @ 6:41 pm
Well, at least SOME Good n\News–for Illinois, being in the “TOP 4 States” for ANY U.S. Economic Stat or Indicator is actually exciting…! (And I never realized till now how much less “dough” Missourians have as opposed to us)! But needless to say, still grimmer than one would like to see, that’s for sure, on the other categories–particularly being stuck at the 9.2% unemployment rate; ugh. And yet, thinking positive, at least it’s not an INcrease…!

Comment by Just The Way It Is One Thursday, Sep 19, 13 @ 8:15 pm
That was MEANT to read above, “…Good News for Illinois,…!”

Comment by Just The Way It Is One Thursday, Sep 19, 13 @ 8:17 pm
Anonymous @ 5:19 pm

Rockford is called the “underwater mortgage capitol” by the Wall Street Journal. I don’t think this is the same as the foreclosure capitol.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324324404579043300994815702.html

Comment by Ruby Thursday, Sep 19, 13 @ 8:34 pm
Wow, I’m definitely going to develop Dissociative Identity Disorder reading some of today’s threads.

Not complaining, Rich. Just making an obsevation.

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Sep 19, 13 @ 10:03 pm
Decades of data and economists agree that due to the diversity of Illinois’ economy, we are one of the last states to feel the impact of a recession and also one of the last states to recover.

50 years ago, state government had a lot of direct influence over job creation. Today, Presidents and the Federal Reserve can barely influence job creation directly.

That is not to say that all is lost. Long term investments in education/work force training, roads, energy and communications infrastructure do pay off. Just not in two or four years. More like ten plus. Dont believe me, read Site Selection magazine.

BTW, I would add parks, museums and other “quality of life” investments to that list. The types of policies and investments that make your community the kind of place where someone with a higher education degree would want to live, raise a family and retire.

60 years ago, local government could help build a factory and attract and retain thousands of good-paying jobs. In the new economy, you need to focus on investments that attract and retain a high-skilled work force. It is a much more difficult task, and we are feeling the effects now of failures to fix school funding more than a decade ago.

Comment by Juvenal Friday, Sep 20, 13 @ 7:41 am
@Juvenal.

I would love to agree with you, but our current governments are selling those investments for business. The proliferation of TIFs, 25% cap on commercial property taxes, and some of the sweetheart deals to keep Sears, Boeing, Catepillar, etc…

Job creation is one thing. Corporate location is another. One does not always equal the other. Politics is an art of rationalization.

Comment by Pete Friday, Sep 20, 13 @ 7:49 am
dupage dan, when I wrote my comment, the title of the post was “Incomes rise, but so does poverty”. (You can still see that original title in the URL of the post.) Rich apparently changed the title after I wrote my comment. The new title is accurate.

Comment by Idol Curiosity Friday, Sep 20, 13 @ 10:42 am