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The Missouri option?

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Illinois

* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…

Bruce Rauner has closer ties to top Democrats in this state and nation than many Democrats do, is pro-choice and reluctant to say where he stands on gay marriage, so you wouldn’t think he’d have much chance at winning a Republican primary election for governor.

But the retired multi-millionaire is running a pretty smart campaign and raising tons more money than his opponents, so nobody can count him out.

State Sen. Bill Brady (R-Bloomington) told the Chicago Sun-Times he raised a mere $75,000 this past quarter, which ended Sept. 30. The Chicago Tribune reported that state Sen. Kirk Dillard (R-Hinsdale) had raised $239,000 in large contributions during the quarter, but he’s still carrying quite a lot of debt from his failed 2010 governor’s race. State Treasurer Dan Rutherford says he raised $333,000 during the quarter and has about $1.2 million in the bank.

Rauner, on the other hand, raised more than $1 million in the third quarter and about $3 million since he kicked off his campaign. And with his personal wealth, he could spend lots, lots more.

More than a few Democrats and even some Republicans are wary of Rauner, saying that somebody else with deep pockets may need to step in to snuff out his campaign before he makes it out of the primary. And Democratic-affiliated groups appear to be the most logical source of that cash.

As polling has shown, Rauner has some serious negative issues in a GOP primary that might be OK with voters in a general election.

His close affiliation to Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, for instance, has killer negative numbers among Republicans, but it won’t exactly be easy for Gov. Pat Quinn to use that against the guy in the general election. Rauner and his wife have supported Democratic candidates, which ain’t good in a Republican contest but is a nice positive once the primary is over.

As noted above, Rauner is pro-choice and won’t say where he stands on gay marriage, but he has left himself more than enough wiggle room to pivot toward support gay marriage once the primary election is over.

In other words, if Rauner wins the Republican nomination, he could be a nightmare for the Democratic Party.

Rauner is strongly anti-union and has all but vowed to break the public employee unions. So it seems only logical that those unions or the Democratic Governors Association and/or someone else would decide that beating Rauner in a primary election would be much more cost efficient than letting him out of that tight, ideological Republican pen and into the wide-open spaces of a general election.

This sort of thing has never been done statewide in Illinois, but it was pulled off last year by U.S. Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) and the national Senate committee. They spent a combined $1.7 million in Missouri’s Republican primary to help nominate the far-right Tea Partier Todd Akin, who went on to self-immolate in the fall campaign. The Democrats spent more money on Akin’s behalf than Akin did in his campaign.

So, could it happen here? Nobody’s talking yet, but it sure looks like a good investment, particularly for the public employee unions.

Rauner has talked openly of shutting down state government, if necessary, to bring down the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, the union that represents most state workers. His pension reform ideas include tossing out the employees’ traditional, defined-benefit pension program for a defined-contribution system such as a 401(k) plan.

Rauner opposes teacher tenure, the right of teachers to strike and on and on and on. He also favors making Illinois a “right to work” state, which labor loathes.

Quinn would probably prefer that Democrats and their supporters try to stop Rauner in March. Rauner could wind up spending a king’s ransom in the November election. He’s also close enough to Emanuel to make Quinn more than a little nervous.

So, spending a few million dollars before the March primary to expose Rauner’s Democratic side to Republican voters would be a whole lot cheaper than the tens of millions it could cost to fight him a year from now.

Keep in mind that it’s not that Quinn would get off easy with any of the other three Republican candidates. And it’s not that Rauner would be a slam-dunk winner in the primary, either.

Quinn could use the playbook that President Obama used against the wealthy Mitt Romney last year (a playbook that Obama borrowed from Quinn’s 2010 race for governor against Brady).

But Rauner appears to pose the biggest risk to the Democrats because of his moderate stances on social issues, his Chicago connections and his ability to bring in money from others and himself.

Comments

And let the Rauner ranting begin….

But it is an interesting tactical question. The follow up question is, do you just try and hurt Bruce or do you try to help one of the GOPers explicitly in the primary?

Comment by OneMan Tuesday, Oct 15, 13 @ 9:31 am
With no real contests in the Dem primaries, it would make sense for union money to fund negative Rauner ads.

He’s been picking a fight, he might get it. But it won’t be on his terms.

If Dillard’s one-off ad for Obama is radioactive in a GOP primary, imagine what you could do with Rauner’s long history of supporting Dems and his close relationship with Emanuel.

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Oct 15, 13 @ 9:41 am
As we are in the “Ides of October”, it appears the most logical avenue to derail Payton Prep Clouter Bruce Rauner is to educate the voters well before the “Ides of March”, which could more than the taking out of Julius Caesar.

It has been discussed here, many “regulars” here have wondered out loud, “where is the outside monies to help the Unions, and get an easier opponent for Quinn?”.

If polling shows significant movement from where PPC Rauner had been only a few months ago, it would be in the interests of the Unions to invest in taking PPC out while Rauner has not completely solidified himself, and defined himself, as opposed to the Nominee Rauner, who could very well imnplode in the General Election, but as Remo said, “Why take a chance?”

The (cough) limited monies PPC’s opponents have is probelmatic to make a narrative stick to the masses.

The three GOP candidates need to make the defining of themselves through how Rauner IS, not how Payton Prep Clouter Bruce Rauner wants others to see him.

“I haven’t given a Dime to Rich Daley or Rahm Emanuel,…”

“I know I haven’t made millions off the backs of workers in Pensions, as those Pensions are in jeopardy…”

The prism is Rauner. Bill Brady has been trying, and I commend him, but “trying” needs more “doing”.

Come January, it might very well be too late.

Then Bruce Rauner can vacation with Rahm Emanuel again… after winning … the Republican Primary.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 15, 13 @ 9:41 am
Amazing to me that after the hosing that Quinn gave the Unions in this state they would be all in to knock out his most dangerous potential opponent in the general election. Politics is a strange animal!

Comment by Stones Tuesday, Oct 15, 13 @ 9:44 am
Rauner has the money, is a likeable guy, has the GOP connections, but is missing one important ingredient with the conservative voters in the Illinois Republican Party. Nobody trusts him. His large political contributions to Democrat Party candidates in previous years, his close personal friendship with Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanual, his past effort to get his kid into a school by using “clout”, and his “Thank you for shopping at K-Mart” sincereity at Meet & Greets and GOP fundraisers is going to make him an “also ran” come the March Republican Primary. Many of us GOP conservatives simply look at him as being the twin-brother of Ron Gidwitz. A nice guy with lots of money who has “some” good ideas that is running for governor primarily based on a craving hunger by his ego.

Comment by Henry Clay Tuesday, Oct 15, 13 @ 9:45 am
The thing is Henry, I don’t know if he really needs the votes of the conservatives that much in a primary.

With two of the candidates fighting each other to be the most conservative and neither of those two really setting any fundraising records, he may just be counting on that vote to be split enough not to be a problem… There are in fact GOP voters in this state who can really give two shakes about social issues. I am one of them, Rauner isn’t my first choice, but any candidates feelings about the major social issues one way or the other really don’t drive my vote. Heck coming out a pro-choice and not coming out hard on same sex marriage basically indicates he can care less about getting those votes. So they can mistrust him as much as they want, he isn’t going to get them anyway.

I think the bigger opening in the primary may be playing up the “We are not going to jerk over most folks in the system now” that is targeting folks who don’t want to see their 5th grade teachers benefits cut.

But as much as they may not like it, I think fundamentally Rauner has told the hard core conservatives he can really care less about getting their votes.

Comment by OneMan Tuesday, Oct 15, 13 @ 9:55 am
Edgar has a lot on the line with Dillard. This is probably his last shot at relevancy.

Comment by shore Tuesday, Oct 15, 13 @ 10:07 am
“Amazing to me that after the hosing that Quinn gave the Unions in this state they would be all in to knock out his most dangerous potential opponent in the general election.”

When the choice is b/t Quinn and someone preaching Union Genocide, it isn’t so amazing.

Or are you amazed that the unions didn’t find someone who supports them to run against Quinn?

Comment by Chris Tuesday, Oct 15, 13 @ 10:09 am
If you are running the “operational” aspects for the Field for the Unions come November, why not have a dry run backing none of the other 3 GOP Candidates, but having signage at the Polling places, “NO to Rauner”, that would work becuse the Operational practice for the March Primary would be the educating of the voters on Rauner, and literally making the Primary about, “Well, anyone but the Payton Prep Clouter”

Pick colors.

Pick phrases.

The GOTV is promoting the negative.

It can be done, it has benn done, I am not breaking any ground here, look at School Tax increases, ballot initiatives, whatever.

Remember, Brady, Dillard, Rutherford;

Rauner says everyone is the problem. You all will get hammered. There is no 11th Commandment for Rauner, Payton Prep Clouter’s only rule is, “So what’s in it for me?” Wake up. Rauner is not going to run a race based on items or beliefs, Rauner is running, on “Anyone but those there”… kinda like the mirror image of “Anyone but Rauner!”?

Food for thought…

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 15, 13 @ 10:11 am
I’m trusting the ILGOP to field Brady or D-Lard in the general.

Comment by Chavez-respecting Obamist Tuesday, Oct 15, 13 @ 10:16 am
“But as much as they may not like it, I think fundamentally Rauner has told the hard core conservatives he can really care less about getting their votes.”

He needs their votes in the General, and is hoping that the stench of PQ is great enough to earn that November vote. He has to tread lightly on the abortion and SSM issues, or he won’t get any of those votes.

Comment by Chris Tuesday, Oct 15, 13 @ 10:16 am
It’s nice to be against campaign financing restrictions until its you that is being buried by someone else’s “free speech” megaphone huh Bill and Kirk?

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Oct 15, 13 @ 10:18 am
This is a really tough call for the Quinn folks. Yeah, at first blush, Rauner’s cash and moderate views boost his electability a ton in a General. But his Romney-like background and persona are attractive targets. And his pension hedge-fund investing and the way he clouted his kid into a selective enrollment high school are devastating to his “outsider” campaign theme. If beating up Rauner now buys Quinn a rematch with Brady, then it’s a no brainer. But still, If I’m Quinn, I think I’d rather draw Rauner than Dillard or Rutherford.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Oct 15, 13 @ 10:33 am
Stones, there was a “South Park” episode about voters having to choose between two very undesirable candidates. The question between Quinn and Rauner for public unions is who will do the least damage. If Rauner truly wants to end their existence, the choice for unions obviously becomes clearer.

Comment by Grandson of Man Tuesday, Oct 15, 13 @ 10:34 am
The reason why it worked in Missouri is because the DSCC and McCaskill ran ads declaring that Todd Akin was “Too Conservative for Missouri.” The idea was that they were boosting Akin’s primary numbers while hurting his support with the general electorate.

Here, the tactic would probably only work against Kirk Dillard and Bill Brady. “Bill Brady is pro-life, even in cases of rape or incest. He’s too conservative for Illinois.” or “Kirk Dillard has taken a hard run to the right, selecting Tea Party darling Jill Tracy to be his running mate. Kirk Dillard and the Tea Party are too conservative for Illinois.”

And it’ll happen on Chicago Broadcast TV or Cable markets across the Collar Counties - you will not find a bunch of union members knocking doors to turn people out against Rauner. I would even guess that could give Rauner his own GOTV push - “the Chicago unions are so afraid of me that they’re trying to beat me. Vote for me to stand up to the Union machine.”

Also, it’s likely this comes from Quinn and his $3mil bankroll as opposed to the unions - wouldn’t spending $500,000 or more in an IE set off the caps and thus help Rauner?

Comment by Crazy Like a Fox Tuesday, Oct 15, 13 @ 10:38 am
Yep, as a member of AFSCME, I want my union to support a union busting Rauner so as to insure that he is the opponent of Quinn, our champion…..oh, wait a minute. Dang.

Comment by dupage dan Tuesday, Oct 15, 13 @ 10:45 am
===you will not find a bunch of union members knocking doors to turn people out against Rauner. I would even guess that could give Rauner his own GOTV push - “the Chicago unions are so afraid of me that they’re trying to beat me. Vote for me to stand up to the Union machine.”===

“Spot On! The Unions, motivated voters belonging to those Unions never go out and work their friends, neighborhoods, or even Election Day, and never …never … is there a GOTV that works being against organized groups that know how to win on Election Day.

No way.

Signed,

The Bill Brady Senior Campaign Staff, 2010.”

Further,

You can “pay” for “Captains” and “Generals” in a field operation, but the Ground troops, in the precinct, with no base of operation that Bruce Rauner can point to as a skeleton “crew” to build upon … huge ask to think Rauner could keep up with is negativities, and an “air assult” message versus a Ground Game, motivated for Pat Quinn, but a Ground Game motivated to defeat Bill Br …er, um…Bruce Rauner …

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 15, 13 @ 10:46 am
Illinois isn’t ready for reform. Bruce Rauner can’t win in a union state. Illinois’ chances of going ‘right to work’ isn’t going to happen anytime soon.

Comment by Steve Tuesday, Oct 15, 13 @ 10:46 am
It’s all a matter of perspective. Stand alone - Rauner’s $3 million raise this year is impressive, if not daunting. Put in the perspective of his plan to raise $ 6 - 8 million by the end of 1st quarter 2013, it makes one wonder a bit. It was implicit that the Billionaire Boys Club would pony up for their brother. It doesn’t appear that the public has followed their lead.

Comment by Veritas Tuesday, Oct 15, 13 @ 11:02 am
===Here, the tactic would probably only work against Kirk Dillard and Bill Brady. “Bill Brady is pro-life, even in cases of rape or incest. He’s too conservative for Illinois.”===

An exact copy of MO’s strategy isn’t necessary.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Oct 15, 13 @ 11:07 am
Edgar to Dillard-”Play smart request a meeting with “union bosses”. Tell them I will work with you. AFSCME I will not take 500K from you and then stick it to you. Unions to Dillard- “Let’s talk soon (we know our members don’t trust Quinn). Union ground game for Quinn-Army of the Uninspired.

Comment by Soldier Of Fortune Tuesday, Oct 15, 13 @ 11:24 am
“But the retired multi-millionaire is running a pretty smart campaign and raising tons more money than his opponents, so nobody can count him out.”

Rauner didn’t get to where he is in life by being delusional or stupid. He got there by understanding and evaluating strengths and weaknesses - including his own.

As OneMan points out, Rauner is kind of positioning himself to only marginally appeal to the hard line conservatives, and if they are interested, fine, if not, no giant loss. There’s plenty of more moderate republicans out there to appeal to. IF (big IF) Rauner pulls it off, he’s set for the General. He doesn’t have to tack back to the center - he’s already there.

Also, as a btw, there’s a small, but growing group of democratic officeholders who aren’t anti-union, but they certainly make a difference between the private sector unions and the public sector unions. And there’s a feeling among some members of the democratic party that some of the public sector unions have become ‘pigs at the troth’ (see CTU as an example). Bluntly, their demands and expectations are simply not sustainable.

Rauner is running an interesting campaign. IF he pulls it off, the republican party in this state will undergo a drastic change.

We’ll see.

Comment by Judgment Day (Road Trip) Tuesday, Oct 15, 13 @ 11:25 am
Judgment Day, it’s “trough,” not troth.

Don’t forget that Rauner indicated he would go after private sector unions also.

Comment by Grandson of Man Tuesday, Oct 15, 13 @ 11:55 am
Can all you fashioners of conventional wisdom please stick with a position!?! I thought Rauner had no chance because his daughter was a private equity investor who Rahm once got a job in Montana. Or something like that.

Comment by Cheese Whiz Tuesday, Oct 15, 13 @ 12:23 pm
Rich,

The tactic in MO was so successful because it helped Akin in the primary and hurt him in the General - what reason is there to stray away from it?

Also, people forget that McCaskill went up on TV with similar adds for her other opponents. The McCaskill campaign just spent double on the Akin add.

Comment by Crazy Like a Fox Tuesday, Oct 15, 13 @ 12:46 pm
Thank you for the correction.
—–

“Don’t forget that Rauner indicated he would go after private sector unions also.”

Read that. But also noticed that he doesn’t seem to go out of his way to take on too many fights at any one time.

And the truth of the matter is that IF Rauner is serious about wanting to work with others down in Springfield and democrats across the aisle, he’s going to have to find some common ground to at least communicate.

That’s not to say they will be best friends or anything. Just as a point, you don’t make the type of business success Rauner has had by being an ideologue.

Comment by Judgment Day (Road Trip) Tuesday, Oct 15, 13 @ 12:58 pm
Will Rauner run on shutting down the government after the disaster in Washington and the record unpopularity of his party? Since he threatened to shut down state government, will his opponents seize on that and use it against him?

Comment by Grandson of Man Tuesday, Oct 15, 13 @ 1:13 pm
” Since he threatened to shut down state government, will his opponents seize on that and use it against him?”

What’s he going to do? - ’shut down’ the government by not paying people? Like not paying the legislature?

Oh, that’s right - my bad. That’s our current governor in action ….

Comment by Judgment Day (Road Trip) Tuesday, Oct 15, 13 @ 1:29 pm
Was Bruce Rauner at the Purple Hotel with Stuart Levine for party time?????

Comment by Steve Tuesday, Oct 15, 13 @ 1:36 pm
“Was Bruce Rauner at the Purple Hotel with Stuart Levine for party time”

Very Unlikely.

Comment by Judgment Day (Road Trip) Tuesday, Oct 15, 13 @ 1:51 pm
“Like not paying the legislature?”

No, more like threatening to shut down the government to terminate the existence of government unions. As bad as it is to not pay legislators, there is a different resonance when a multimillionaire whose family benefitted from political connections attacks thousands of middle class workers who avail themselves legally to any government protection they can get.

Comment by Grandson of Man Tuesday, Oct 15, 13 @ 2:11 pm
Akin was tea party? What are you basing that off of? The tea party was split in that race, and frankly they mostly backed Steeleman or Brunner over Akin. Akin had the social conservatives mobilized…but tea party? I’d be curious how you came to that label.

Comment by Liandro Tuesday, Oct 15, 13 @ 7:46 pm