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* University of California at Berkeley professor Franklin Zimring’s Sun-Times op-ed denouncing the University of Chicago’s Crime Lab analysis of the mandatory minimum sentencing proposal for illegal gun possession has been getting quite a bit of play. Several readers have asked why I haven’t posted the piece.

I simply thought it was too emotional, too focused on a personal attack and lacking in specific reasons why the Crime Lab analysis was wrong. Go read it yourself.

* Jens Ludwig at the Crime Lab has penned a response. Read it in full for a point by point rebuttal of Zimring’s attacks. I found this to be most interesting…

Among all cases where there was a conviction for an aggravated UUW charge in Chicago from 2003 through 2012, on average 43% were sentenced to probation and another 10% were sentenced to boot camp, community service, or “other.” Put differently, fewer than half are sentenced to jail or prison over this time period.

The data do show that the share of aggravated UUW cases receiving probation, boot camp, community service or “other” declined from 2003 to 2012. But it’s still the case that as of 2012, one-third (33%) of aggravated UUW cases receive a sentence of something other than time in jail or prison.

Analysis by the Illinois Sentencing Policy Advisory Council claims that the average length of stay in the Illinois Department of Corrections (DOC) for aggravated UUW cases that do get sent to prison is one-third of a year for people convicted of their first aggravated UUW offense, and 1.15 years for those convicted for at least the second time.

We can debate all day about first time offenders. Set them aside for now.

* But there is no doubt that 1.15 years for repeat offenders is ridiculously low. I mean, you get convicted for Aggravated Unlawful Use of a Weapon and then busted and convicted again and serve a year?

Prosecutors are to blame for this, as are judges, as are laws. A fix is in order.

* Ludwig’s conclusion…

Mandatory minimums may or may not be the best way to overcome the natural human tendency to focus on the after-the-fact outcome of some risky behavior, rather than on the risky behavior itself. But everyone concerned about the massive social costs that gun violence imposes on the most disadvantaged neighborhoods in Illinois should be in agreement that we need to figure out some way to increase the certainty of some sort of sanction for the very high-risk behavior of illegal gun carrying.

Agreed.

posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Oct 17, 13 @ 11:11 am

Comments

They were probably sentenced to three years and got credit for time served in the county lockup. That would get them out in 13 or 14 months.

One of the major problems is that sentences don’t actually mean anything. Illinois used to have sentences that ran 1 to 15 years, or something.

They were probably declared unconstitutional, but there was any wiggle room in that ruling the state should take an look at an updated version of that.

Comment by Downstate Illinois Thursday, Oct 17, 13 @ 11:17 am
But’s lets do nothing so our law-a-biding packing brothers and sisters don’t get caught up in this silly maze designed to end senseless street killings

Comment by CircularFiringSquad Thursday, Oct 17, 13 @ 11:19 am
yeah, most of these busts are non-FOID card holding, prior felons. no sympathy for prior felons.

Comment by RonOglesby Thursday, Oct 17, 13 @ 11:21 am
How about this compromise? Mandatory minimum for second and subsequent offenders. That way the Senators and veteran airline stewardesses who make a mistake don’t get sentenced to three years in the slammer.

Comment by reformer Thursday, Oct 17, 13 @ 11:40 am
@Reformer

I think you hit on the easy compromise. I wonder who would actually oppose that.

Comment by Mason born Thursday, Oct 17, 13 @ 11:51 am
* But there is no doubt that 1.15 years for repeat offenders is ridiculously low. I mean, you get convicted for Aggravated Unlawful Use of a Weapon and then busted and convicted again and serve a year?

agreed. And reformer, that is shat we have on the table. AGUUW by a felon, including a repeat offender gets 3 years @ 85% no argument.

Felon in possession, in the home, car or otherwise, SAME.

we have a lot of common ground on this. This is NOT the gun guys or NRA simply saying NO to everything.

Comment by Todd Thursday, Oct 17, 13 @ 12:08 pm
Rich thanks for posting this interesting discussion on your blog. As a Chicagoan I join Alderman Howard Brookins and Ald. Walter Burnett in opposing HB2265/SB2267. If one reviews the comments of these African American Alderman (see http://www.suntimes.com/news/crime/23187090-418/city-council-divided-along-racial-lines-in-debate-over-stiffer-gun-crime-sentences.html)they are coming from different perspectives but neither believe the data crunching from U of C will materialize into an actual decline in shooting in the City of Chicago.

Not withstanding Rich’s opinion that Franklin E. Zimring commentary was “was too emotional, too focused on a personal attack and lacking in specific reasons why the Crime Lab analysis was wrong,” I think one conclusion he drew has the ring of truth about it. That was this: “The mandatory minimum proposal is a temper tantrum masquerading as an act of government.”

Comment by Rod Thursday, Oct 17, 13 @ 3:45 pm
Did my comment get pulled? Cause I ain’t seein’ it no more…

– MrJM

Comment by MrJM Thursday, Oct 17, 13 @ 5:12 pm
Maybe we should be considering the consequences of minimum sentencing for illegal gun possession on the already too high incarceration rate in this state and country.

Comment by Ruby Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 10:38 am
The incarceration rate in the US is a shocking disgrace. Compare our rates to Russia, Africa and Europe:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_incarceration_rate

Comment by Ruby Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 10:42 am