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Davis’ lead grows over Harold

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Illinois
Polls

* Harold could destroy her political future if she winds up getting thumped this badly next March…

A recent poll of Republican voters in the 13th Congressional District gives incumbent Rep. Rodney Davis a 4-to-1 lead over his Republican challenger, Urbana attorney Erika Harold.

The poll of 859 Republicans, taken Oct. 10, showed that Davis was the choice of 63.15 percent of the likely Republican voters, to 15.95 percent for Harold. About 21 percent of those polled were undecided. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.34 percent.

A poll taken exactly four months earlier, on June 10, by the same Springfield polling firm, We Ask America, found that Republicans favored Davis, 53.55 percent to 16.38 percent.

“This is going to be a very tough road for a challenger in a Republican primary,” said Gregg Durham, the CEO of We Ask America. “Republicans seem to be favoring the incumbent, and for a challenger with limited means who is not willing to throw bombs — I think she’s more or less said she’s going to run a positive campaign — absent a major scandal, it’s hard to find a path to success for her.” […]

“I wouldn’t suggest right now that these will be the final numbers,” he said of the poll, “but I would suggest that I’ve never seen someone with these type of numbers win, absent a major scandal.”

Durham is spot on.

posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 11:01 am

Comments

That’s pretty decisive. Your move, Ms. Harold.

Comment by Ron Burgundy Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 11:12 am
If the Democrats have to be the ones to take out a guy who pledged to shut down the government along with the birthers and the crazies, so be it. Erika Harold can run against the Dem in 2016.

Comment by too obvious Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 11:12 am
too obvious-

Put the pipe down. You’ve had too much.

Comment by John Bambenek Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 11:16 am
If she can’t raise money better than she has so far, she has no political future.

Comment by Johnny Q. Suburban Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 11:18 am
Too Obvious, too Funny. Do what John suggests.

Comment by Fan Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 11:22 am
I doubt if Club for Growth or Heritage Action is going to put any money behind Harold with those numbers.

Comment by wordslinger Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 11:23 am
Was this poll based upon calls to people with landline phones? If so, then you’ve got to question its sampling. Many, today, use their cell phones solely and don’t even have a “wired” phone.

Comment by David P. Graf Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 11:26 am
I think Ms. Harold has Congressman Davis, (R - not from Champaign) right where she wants him.

“You’ll … you’ll see, she’s a star”

Those Johnson Ex-Staffers are ruining her chances at being a relevent player in the future.

My advice? Do not file. Stop. Walk away.

Claim you…

…”learned alot about the process of being a candidate, and when the time is right, and the campaign is right, I will return. Until then, I will continue to do my best and be a strong supporter of Republicans and I look forward to being very active all the way through next November.”

Save. Face.

Please …

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 11:31 am
Yep, that whole shutting the government down thing really hurt Davis. Remember, he NEVER voted to shut the government down. He only voted for bills to fund the government. In fact, he voted to “re-open” the governement right along with every Democrat in the state and against the “birthers and the crazies” who opposed the final compromise. Good luck making that “he shut down the government” crap stick.

Comment by Jaded Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 11:38 am
And, the chance of a “major scandal” with Davis is about zilch. The guy is a Boy Scout all the way.

Comment by chad Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 11:45 am
=== Was this poll based upon calls to people with landline phones? If so, then you’ve got to question its sampling. Many, today, use their cell phones solely and don’t even have a “wired” phone. ===

@David P. Graf — You’re several years late in your concerns. Professional pollsters like Durham have addressed this.

Comment by Just Observing Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 11:46 am
This is tough for me. As a Democrat, I’m just fine with Ms. Harold tanking her political career early and being forced to settle for an enormous paycheck at a huge lawfirm.

But as a woman, I think the way Ms. Harold has been treated is just disgraceful.

Take this, for example: “The Illinois Republican party refused to give Harold access to the GOP data center. Formerly called the “voter vault”, the data center is where the RNC stores voting information for all voters in the country, which it makes available to the 50 state parties for free. Candidates are given access to the database to target donors and voters.

In response to Harold’s request, the state central committee, which governs the Illinois GOP, issued a new policy at its 5 October meeting. The new policy stated that challengers to any Republican incumbent would not be given access to the voter database. However, the policy did permit county chairs to give access to county voter data at their own discretion. How convenient for the white incumbent, Davis.”

It’s kind of hard to contact donors if they won’t give you their names and phone numbers.

So Erika — walk away with your future and dignity intact. You’ve got a great smile and a great resume. Don’t waste it on this race. Time is on your side.

(And remember — Revenge is a dish that tastes best cold.)

Comment by Soccermom Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 11:55 am
@chad - Oh come on. Davis is a savvy politician but a “Boy Scout”???

A guy who gained his foothold in politics via the George Ryan secretary of states office and who in 2012 refused to cooperate with a Congressional ethics investigation cannot credibly claim to be a “Boy Scout.”

That said these traits do reinforce that he is a savvy political operator and thus Erika Harold cannot hope to see Davis Thaddeus McCotter’d out of office on a petition gathering technicality.

Comment by hisgirlfriday Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 11:57 am
This mountain’s a little too high. If you do have the votes, you better have the money. If you don’t have either, wait for the next bus.

Comment by A guy... Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 12:06 pm
Well Congressman Schock is dodging a mirror based bullet on this one. “Mirror, mirror on the wall who’s the prettiest Illinois congressman of all”.

I actually kid the Congressman. I was happily surprised how he and most of the GOP delegation voted on the budget deal. As bad as elements of the national GOP are few of those types get elected to federal office in Illinois.

Have all the GOP Governor candidates picked Lt Gov’s candidates yet? If not then Ms Harold would be a good way to garner some publicity.

Comment by IrishPirate Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 12:12 pm
Who knows anything about the truth of this claim in the article in today’s Guardian?

“The Illinois Republican party refused to give Harold access to the GOP data center. Formerly called the “voter vault”, the data center is where the RNC stores voting information for all voters in the country, which it makes available to the 50 state parties for free. Candidates are given access to the database to target donors and voters.

In response to Harold’s request, the state central committee, which governs the Illinois GOP, issued a new policy at its 5 October meeting. The new policy stated that challengers to any Republican incumbent would not be given access to the voter database. However, the policy did permit county chairs to give access to county voter data at their own discretion.”

Link to article:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/oct/18/republican-party-minority-voters-skindeep

Comment by DuPage Dave Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 12:12 pm
===Was this poll based upon calls to people with landline phones? ===

We Ask America typically does anywhere from 20-28 percent mobile phones in its universe. Not sure what this one was.

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 12:22 pm
Davis is over 60% in this poll, and factor in the margin of error, Rodney Davis is well over 50%, and Ms. Harold is even belor 20%, given … the margin of error.

What am I missing here that has Erika Harold seen as a credible candidate in this race, with these parameters, in this time politcally?

Ms. Harold raising a credible amout of money?No.

Has polling moved Ms. Harold any closer? No.

Has Ms. Harold secured the state party’s blessing, the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee’s endorsement to take on the incumbent? Any organized political aparatus … outside Champaign … given the campaign crediblity to take on Rodney Davis? No.

Ms. Harold’s run is Folly, and the Johnson Ex-Staffers are egging it on, for all the wrong reasons.

Save yourself Ms. Harold, please.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 12:55 pm
Harold will catch up in swimsuit portion of this competition.

Comment by Nonplussed Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 1:08 pm
The Guardian article assumes she is getting this treatment from the state party because she is not white and the incumbent is. Is that the more likely reason, or is it that they don’t want ANYONE challenging and weakening/beating their incumbents, regardless of who they are?

Comment by Ron Burgundy Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 1:16 pm
@IrishPirate - FWIW, Schock signed the same letter Davis did helping to precipitate the shutdown in support of the FreedomWorks strategy to defund Obamacare through the CR.

Its too bad Schock and Davis did not realize the folly of this strategy earlier and say so saving everyone the grief and expense of the shutdown, but instead enabled the extreme elements of their caucus to drive govt to a halt.

As for that Harold not getting voter data story, I doubt this rule is passed to stop Erika Harold so much as Tea Party challengers in general.

Comment by hisgirlfriday Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 1:26 pm
Someone remind me, isn’t it like $25 to get a CD of voter data from every voter in the state of illinois from the board of elections? I mean, who actually USES data center anyway? The interface is almost as bad as healthcare.gov.

Comment by a question Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 1:34 pm
=== Someone remind me, isn’t it like $25 to get a CD of voter data from every voter in the state of illinois from the board of elections? I mean, who actually USES data center anyway? ===

I don’t know anything about USES data center… but many companies and organizations maintain voter data that is far superior to the county or state voter files. For instance, the count wont scrub a voter until they do a canvas and realize the voter has moved, died, etc. On the other hand, some voter files will drop someone from the roll when they put in a change of address form with the USPS.

Comment by Just Observing Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 2:51 pm
Disk, no disk …

Ms. Harold is down 4 to 1, has “limited” money, a motivated Staff with ill intentions…

As we talk about voter info.

Erika may be a “star”, but at this rate, she is a “falling” star, not a “rising” one.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 2:55 pm
Yeah, JO — We assume the GOP list includes some secret sauce…

Comment by Soccermom Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 3:32 pm
Regarding the voter information the News-Gazette had a good article that explained the whole situation.

http://www.news-gazette.com/news/local/2013-10-17/harold-hits-wall-getting-data-republican-party.html

Comment by MyTwoCents Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 3:32 pm
===As for that Harold not getting voter data story, I doubt this rule is passed to stop Erika Harold so much as Tea Party challengers in general.===

Ding. Ding.

Would you give anyone challenging the incumbents the opportunity to use the list you are using to take away monies you are going to need to defeat the person running against the incumbent?

Politics ain’t ben bag.

The race thing is sad. It is about the politics and the cash and the power of the incumbency and stopping the challengers from using resources against itself.

What, did Erika think everyone would roll over for her …

At a 4-1 clip, looks like no one is really interested in Erika.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 3:40 pm
=== I’m just fine with Ms. Harold tanking her political career early and being forced to settle for an enormous paycheck at a huge lawfirm. ===

If she’s not smart enough to bail, she’ll have to settle for smaller checks. I like my lawyers to have common sense.

Comment by Norseman Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 4:29 pm