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Pollster pushes back against Oberweis

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Illinois
Polls

* State Sen. Jim Oberweis has been touting the results of a recent poll to bolster his contention that he could defeat Sen. Dick Durbin…

But the pollster whose company generated those numbers said it is not a typical head-to-head poll, so the numbers might not reflect, even at this stage, how a race would shape up […]

“That poll was designed to see which of two candidates did better against Durbin,” Gregg Durham, CEO of the polling firm, said Wednesday. “It wasn’t designed to say if he ran against Durbin, how well he would do.”

The Illinois Review website reported some of the poll numbers Sept. 25. The comparisons were how Oberweis and former U.S. Rep. JOE WALSH, R-McHenry, would each do against Durbin.

But Durham said that what he called the “curiosity poll” was informational, and respondents were told in recorded calls that the poll was testing two candidates against Durbin.

“Right there, it changes the parameters of the poll,” Durham said. “It then becomes, for lack of a better term, a beauty contest as opposed to a real head-to-head.

“Clearly, Senator Oberweis did slightly better than former Congressman Joe Walsh,” Durham added. “But in our opinion, he would have a very steep hill to climb to find success” against Durbin next year.

* Meanwhile…

Associated Press is reporting that at the Capitol Wednesday, State Senator Jim Oberweis (R-Sugar Grove) told a rally of traditional marriage supporters that he has launched an effort to run for U.S. Senate. However, Oberweis told Illinois Review that’s not exactly what he said or meant.

“I said that if we get enough petitions, I will run,” Oberweis told Illinois Review in an email response. He did not elaborate any further on whether he’s actively organized a petition drive, nor did he say when he’d make a formal announcement. Candidate petitions can be submitted to the Illinois State Board of Elections beginning November 19th.

He’s leaving the door open just a tiny crack, perhaps because the behind the scenes effort to keep him out of the race is gathering steam.

posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Oct 24, 13 @ 11:46 am

Comments

Look, if you’re going to run a poll designed to encourage someone to take the major leap to run for Senate, at least stand by the poll.

A “curiosity” poll? is that an industry term?

I understand the desire of the pollster and his benefactors to now walk away from this mess, but not sure why you would impugn the credibility of your survey.

Isn’t the simple answer here, yeah we did a poll, Durbin was at 50% and Obie at 39% with 11% undecided. It is highly unlikely Obie would win even a majority of the undecideds so based on our polling, he would lose by at least 10 points.

That’s how most sane people would read the results, at least..

Comment by Powell Thursday, Oct 24, 13 @ 11:56 am
===designed to encourage someone to take the major leap===

That wasn’t the intent.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Oct 24, 13 @ 11:59 am
===He’s leaving the door open just a tiny crack, perhaps because the behind the scenes effort to keep him out of the race is gathering steam.===

Let’s hope the 10% sane part of the Slytherin Jim Oberweis is overruling the 90% insane Slytherin Jim Oberweis who wants to drag an entire ticket, an entire party, and an entire state away from the ILGOP brand … because of Jim Oberweis’s intolerance and insistence on Purity.

Jim Oberweis is a Stain on the ILGOP brand, no matter what polls he thinks he is reading, or what speeches he gives to other Slytherins.

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Oct 24, 13 @ 12:11 pm
To clarify: was it a traditional trial heat question asking something along the lines of “if candidates for U.S. Senate were were X and X who would you vote for…” or was it worded in some other manner beside the “testing two candidates….” qualifier? Best for them to simply release the exact wording and order of the questions if not already done so (the other post did not show that info).

Comment by Dave Fako Thursday, Oct 24, 13 @ 12:19 pm
I think Oberweis just likes attention, however he can get it.

Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Oct 24, 13 @ 12:23 pm
Stay classy, Jim.

Comment by PublicServant Thursday, Oct 24, 13 @ 12:31 pm
Let’s pray that some of these “establishment” types that didn’t think this idea through (rumor: Gidwitz)will pony up the money to look at this signatures and paperwork.

We’ve got enough trouble without the anchor known as Oberweis.

Comment by LincolnLounger Thursday, Oct 24, 13 @ 12:36 pm
Repubs are whining and complaining about the Milk Man, BUT who else do they have?? Walsh? pleaaaaase, he’s a kook. Alan Keyes? Ditka? Why give Durbin a pass? He needs to spend some of his warchest in IL instead of spreading the wealth thru out the US on other races, RIGHT? why isn’t someone, anyone, at least trying to run. Remember Mike Flanigan? Long shot Louie, well he won. What about Steve Kim? Oh wait he’s on the ballot already

Comment by 10th ward Thursday, Oct 24, 13 @ 12:55 pm
Hope that door is open more than a crack. Like open enough for his entire person, including his large head that thinks he could win this. He needs to walk through that door and not run. It will save him big money and keep him from racking up a record worse than Gerry Quarry.

Comment by A guy... Thursday, Oct 24, 13 @ 1:00 pm
- 10th Ward -,

I said it in yesterday’s Post, and I am saying it now;

No one is better than the Stain Of Jim Oberweis.

Think about Durkin’s situation, trying to run a diverse group in Districts that need a Reagan Republican, and Jim Oberweis’ presence defingin the entire ILGOP, including those running in those IL House races.

Jim Oberweis is a “gift” to the HDems, SDems, even a Mike Frerichs will get a boost running against Tom Cross, and Tom and Jim Oberweis against SSM … it is disaster.

No one running … is better than the Stain that Jim Oberweis will put on the entire ILGOP next fall.

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Oct 24, 13 @ 1:06 pm
=== “I said that if we get enough petitions, I will run,” ===

Well duh… if you don’t collect enough petition signatures you can’t run.

Comment by Just Observing Thursday, Oct 24, 13 @ 1:20 pm
I think I have this figured out. His constant campaigning is Oberweis’ subliminal marketing effort for his dairy products. Notice all the ice cream references. Saves the company money.

Comment by Norseman Thursday, Oct 24, 13 @ 1:21 pm
== perhaps because the behind the scenes effort to keep him out of the race is gathering steam. ==

Don’t be so coy, Rich. Please. Pray tell. Give us the details of the “behind the scenes effort” to keep Oberweis out.

Comment by Conservative Republican Thursday, Oct 24, 13 @ 1:29 pm
===Give us the details===

Subscribe.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Oct 24, 13 @ 1:33 pm
===His constant campaigning is Oberweis’ subliminal marketing effort for his dairy products.===

Only for those customers who actually like what he says.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Oct 24, 13 @ 2:32 pm
The milk man is a power hungry person obbsessed with titles and is only about enriching himself. The man needs to get some experience legisalting as well. This guy needs to let it go and humble himself.

Comment by Power hungry Thursday, Oct 24, 13 @ 2:42 pm
==His constant campaigning is Oberweis’ subliminal marketing effort for his dairy products.==

Wouldn’t the slogan “Taste the Crazy” be a cheaper way to do it?

Comment by Chavez-respecting Obamist Thursday, Oct 24, 13 @ 3:11 pm
I have no problem with Oberweis Ice Cream. It’s very good.

Here in the People’s Republic of Oak Park, his place on Oak Park Avenue is always rocking. Although the Brown Cow on Madison in Forest Park gives him a run for his money.

Good ice cream in the summer trumps politics.

Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Oct 24, 13 @ 3:16 pm
lol - wordslinger -,

Agreed, I go to the Oberweis Dairy Store on Rt. 30 in Montgomery way, way, way too often. They know my face!

I get the “non-partisan” flavor … but get the ice cream all the same.

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Oct 24, 13 @ 3:23 pm
I am not sold on the Good Humor Man’s competitor, but I believe that Oberweis would have been a far better substitute candidate in 2004 than Alan Keyes.

Comment by Just Wondering Thursday, Oct 24, 13 @ 4:23 pm
Pollster defending his firm’s professionalism and integrity from misrepresentation by a candidate.

I like that. More should do it. Candidates who pay do not buy the right to change the poll results — or they become worthless.

Comment by walkinfool Thursday, Oct 24, 13 @ 5:35 pm
Run Jim Run!!

Comment by Chicago Cynic Thursday, Oct 24, 13 @ 6:12 pm
If the Milkman were to run for US Senate in 2014 and lose, would he still be a state senator? Is his il senate seat up for reelection or is it safe?

Comment by hm Thursday, Oct 24, 13 @ 6:13 pm
–If the Milkman were to run for US Senate in 2014 and lose, would he still be a state senator? Is his il senate seat up for reelection or is it safe?–

For crying out loud, google!

You’re on the Internet. In the time it took you to ask the question, you could have had the answer.

How lazy can you get?

Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Oct 24, 13 @ 8:04 pm
Oswego Willy, that is funny. You seem to think Oberweis is puritanical and as a conservative I see a guy who is fairly liberal with his support of the current method of public education, dope smoking, and speed demons.

Comment by seeker Thursday, Oct 24, 13 @ 11:02 pm
Hello, seeker. Expanding your horizons? Welcome!

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Oct 24, 13 @ 11:39 pm
And, Willy–my dearest, I do hope you’ll be kind in replying to seeker. He can certainly hold his own, and I think it’s wonderful that he’s here to share his views and to–I’m assuming, listen to those of others.

Comment by Anonymous Friday, Oct 25, 13 @ 12:12 am
Having said that, you can both pounce on me now.

Comment by Anonymous Friday, Oct 25, 13 @ 12:13 am
- seeker -,

Anyone who requires 100% “Purity” to be considered a “Leader” in My Party, and only allows “wavering” if they get the Jim Oberweis “He/She is a good Republican” Seal of Approval… IS a “Puritanical” Oaf, ruining My Party with Blood Oaths and Litmus Tests, and that person at the top of the ticket will destroy the ILGOP all the way down that ticket, black helicopters over Soldiet Field and all.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Oct 25, 13 @ 5:26 am
Hmm…that started of well.

Comment by Anonymous Friday, Oct 25, 13 @ 8:12 am
Obviously, that should have been “Hmm…that started off well.”

Comment by Anonymous Friday, Oct 25, 13 @ 8:13 am