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As I write this in the early morning hours, my weekly newspaper column is not yet posted, but you can find it here soon.

Rod Blagojevich and Judy Baar Topinka don’t agree on much, but their campaigns concurred last week that Gov. Blagojevich is leading in the polls.

The Blagojevich campaign says their latest poll shows the Democratic governor leading the Republican treasurer 47-31 - a seriously large 16-point advantage. Topinka’s campaign has Blagojevich ahead 44-37 - a far narrower seven points. […]

According to the Blagojevich poll, the governor leads in Chicago 67-14, has a 51-40 advantage in the Cook County suburbs, leads in the usually heavily suburban collar counties 44-36 and is tied downstate 37-37. The governor’s poll was taken July 5-7 of 604 likely voters and had a margin of error of 4.1 percent. Pollsters went into the field right after a week of heavily negative news stories appeared about alleged corruption within the governor’s administration. […]

Topinka’s poll has her leading in the Republican collars 44-39, ahead 57-33 in northern downstate, up 43-37 in central Illinois, out front in southern Illinois 43-40, but trailing badly in Chicago/Cook 60-30. Topinka’s poll was conducted July 10-13. 600 likely voters were surveyed and the poll had a margin of error of 4.1 percent.

Rasmussen, you’ll recall, has the race at 45-34, about right in the middle of where both candidates’ polls show.

Meanwhile, SurveyUSA’s latest monthly tracker has the governor’s job approval about the same as last month. 44 percent approve, 51 percent disapprove.

QUESTION: Can Topinka still pull this out? Can the governor keep her numbers down enough even when she starts running her own TV ads? Or will only some seriously high-level indictments stop him now?

UPDATE: Hardcore national Democratic blogger Kos throws in his two cents:

Blago’s administration is corrupt, he’s got a terrible relationship with the Democratic legislature, and people don’t like him. There is one semi-popular Republican in the state, Judy Baar Topinka, yet she’ll have a hard time overcoming her state’s heavy Blue leanings. Voters seem willing to keep her as state treasurer. As governor? Skepticism abounds

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Jul 24, 06 @ 5:20 am

Comments

I think an indictment will stop Bladgo in his tracks ! People generally are fed up with gov’t craziness ! And if people knew anything really about what this guy has done to the state & it’s finances he’d be gone. But, NOONE is telling them. As to JBT ?? Where’s she at ?? No full force effort & almost August … whether waiting on the “magic” Bladgo indictment to jump start her momentum or something ?? The GOP {that is people in the field, Co. Chairman ect.}are wondering the same. I don’t know unless she can raise money at some pace, get public on issues quick, develop a concise message on her own & start acting like a viable campaign … I hate to say it BUT I doubt it !!! I like JBT & she’s a great person but her heart’s not in this campaign or so it seems !! Lot’s of folks stumped hard for her in the primary. Running on her recognized name & using well know surrogates around the state to promote her helped !! Several national “big-names” of every persuasion been here to help out too ! Now she’s the nominee & that’s about as far as it goes. If they can put a package together with D.C. help $$ & advice & take it away from the amatures trying to run things …she could win this by the slimest of margins. If she doesn’t act quickly Bladgo gets back in but with the smallest of turn-outs. The GOP & conservative Dem voters will just stay home. They have NO “choice” !

Comment by anon. Monday, Jul 24, 06 @ 6:32 am
Hate to say it but so will the Republican conservatives. I have talked with many of the party workers that will not support her. There is a real rift in the party over her. She has a long rough road, perhaps the comming indictment might help her.

Comment by The Conservative Monday, Jul 24, 06 @ 6:49 am
topinka can still win. but she’ll need to show that early tv did not suck the air out of her fund-raising (i suspect she’ll need about $10M COH; only $8M if the guv has stopped fund-raising altogether). she’ll need to show some message discipline (staying on message doesn’t appear to be topinka’s strong suit). and she’ll need to rely on the kindness of strangers — strong showings by roskam, mcsweeney, hastert and weller in the collars.

topinka’s numbers can be suppressed, especially if she allows her mouth to stray. the guv’s theme (what was she thinking?) gives amble room for the kind of charge-denial vicious cycle that freezes the poll numbers. moreover, this kind of ad tends to unnerve the “star,” perhaps forcing topinka to second guess everything she says. we’ve already seen hints that she wasn’t ready for prime time; i’d have topinka watch cameras *everywhere.*

it does appear that republicans are desparate for indictments of the governor before election day…

Comment by bored now Monday, Jul 24, 06 @ 6:50 am
To the â€˜Conservativeâ€™, while there might not be a lot of â€˜Republican Conservativesâ€™ that will support her, there are a lot of Democrats that will. I for one am tired of the mess that Blago has left this state in. I supported him in the beginning and am truly disappointed in the decisions that have been made. I work for the state (almost 20 years as a professional) and see first hand the appointments made to positions that have in the past required at least a college degree.

Comment by state worker Monday, Jul 24, 06 @ 7:05 am
â€œBut, NO ONE is telling them.â€

Are you serious? The papers lambaste the Governor on a daily basis. Hiring based on politicks, firing based on politicks, contracts for this, contracts for that. If it were any group other than the Illinois GOP complaining, the people might listen. The hypocrisy is breathtaking.

Topinka canâ€™t do it; the people arenâ€™t buying her story. Andy Martin would have given the Governor a better run.

Comment by B Hicks Monday, Jul 24, 06 @ 7:12 am
Not only will Judy need indictments to have a chance at beating Rod, but if in fact anyone is indicted I’m not convinced that will help. Judy has run a HORRIBLE campaign, McQuery in the Southtown had an excellent column on this yesterday, and other than saying she is not Rod she has done absolutely nothing to give the voters in Illinois any confidence in her.

Comment by wndycty Monday, Jul 24, 06 @ 7:17 am
Certainly Topinka can still win but she has to get off her ass and act like she wants the job. If she has no money, pull a Steven Baer and stand in front of a state government press office every day and hand out press releases.

Topinka cannot wait for indictments. It’s only 3 1/2 months to the election and it takes prosecutors at least that long to spell-check their paperwork. Unless an indictment include B, not just staffers culled from the Chicago Democrat machine, the indictment won’t make much of a difference.

I’m sick and tired of hearing about ‘Republican conservatives’. If they think that four more years of BB’s BS is better than the Republican party’s nominee, they can stop calling themselves Republicans.

Comment by Anonymous Monday, Jul 24, 06 @ 7:23 am
I imagine she is going to save the best for last and as long as this daily drip drip of Blago’s goes on she does not have to do much.The press with the Blago negitives will start helping when the real voters start paying attention.Most of them are on vacation unlike us bloggers that are chained to our computers.The election is in November not tomorrow.

Comment by DOWNSATE Monday, Jul 24, 06 @ 7:29 am
Topinka Toast!
The polls tell the story. Even is Southern IL where the bloggers want you to believe all hands hate GRod she is only up by less than the margin of error.

Even more telling was Sunday’s Tom Roeser’s Radio Round Up instead of boosting Judy Bore or Brickhead the Excutioner or Milk Carton Stu, they spent nearly one hour talking about some silly wingnut petition drive to censure Sen. Durbin
Duh?
Yes, I did tune in, but mostly because the SCORE was talking about the equally boring preseason Bears Training Camp prospects.

If the AccordionGal can’t organize a few calls each week to remind the wingnuts to get behind her then that is a campaign in deeeeeeeep troubles.

Have a day.

Comment by Reddbyrd Monday, Jul 24, 06 @ 7:51 am
I have always believed the Rasmussen poll. So that puts Judy down 11. After all the negative commericals Blago has run you would expect this number. Judy’s nobody’s fool. She knows exactly what she’s doing. I believe she is right not to waste money before Labor Day. Numbers will turn around fast when she starts hitting him. Starting after Labor Day she can run a different negative Blagojevich newspaper headline or editorial and never run out of copy.
As far as indictments against the Blago administration they will happen before the election. The problem is the Illinois voters have become desensitized by all the corruption. Still I don’t think the people will vote for a Governor under indictment.
My money is on Judy. That old broad will go for the juggler.

Comment by Anyone but Rod Monday, Jul 24, 06 @ 7:53 am
I ask again. Are the citizens of Chicago, collar counties, etc. reading a different news than the rest of us are? Do they have some claudestine newspaper and radio (Blago on Air, 24/7?)that we aren’t privy to? How else can anyone in their right mind not see that this guy is ruining the government of this state and has put it into bankruptcy. We are just lucky the healthcare providers haven’t gotten together (YET) and filed a class-action suit against him for failure to pay for services provided while pulling out millions for publicity stunts he calls initiatives. I am so frustrated with this administration, I could just cry.

Comment by Disgusted Monday, Jul 24, 06 @ 8:03 am
An excellent question that will be a “cliff-hanger”. Judy is regarded as the next Joan of Arc by 50% of the GOP registered voters. 20% of the GOP voters regard her as being cut out of the same cloth as Blagojevich (looking out for her career rather than what is best for the citizens of Illinois). The remaining 30% of the GOP voters are lukewarm about her or simply indifferent as to whether she gets elected. It is a sad case of the Illinois Republican Central Committee once again lacking any knowledge of what the majority of the GOP voters were really looking for in their Republican candidate. The GOP Party leaders have simply lost touch with “the common man”.

It will boil down to how disgusted the Illinois voter is with the current governor and his leadership (or lack of)that will determine if the voters will bother to get off of their butts and trudge to the polls to cast their vote “against Blagojevich” rather than to cast their vote for Topinka. I will be one of those GOP voters who will “hold my nose” and vote for Topinka.

Comment by Beowulf Monday, Jul 24, 06 @ 8:04 am
Some of the language that is used in the above “blocks” are very revealing into “why” the Governor is leading in the polls and will win in November: “I could just cry.” Typically, when conservatives are rattled, upset or disgusted with a Democrat or Democrat policy, the Democrat is doing something that the “base” and more often than not “middle of the roaders” support, as Rasmussen’s poll suggests. People in Illinois understand politics, ie., Rutan vs. the Illinois Republican party; therefore, Republicans can sling their hypocrisy all they want. They just are not credible. I do not think Topinka can win this election. First, she is a loose cannon (loose lips sink ships). Second, she does not have a plan (folks it is basicly August-get a clue). Third, her base voted against her in the primary (2/3 “R” primary voters did not vote for her-said she was a liberal). Fourth, Governor Blagojevich’s policies and agenda is “why” he is leading and will win in November (priorities that address “peoples” needs). It is that simple. I know, according to right-wingers in blogs and media, that nobody like the Gov. When I am at the gas station or the restaurant, I hear people all the time talking about: veterans health care (increased for all veterans), etc.

Comment by SilverBackDemocrat Monday, Jul 24, 06 @ 8:24 am
Interesting that downstate is not higher. Not to mention Chicago suburbs.

A couple of months ago, I said that JBT could be running a vanity, end-of-career campaign. The campaign lacked energy and I questioned if she herself had the energy required to win. Her campaign manager kept saying he was focusing on
internal organization and fundraising.

Nothing much has changed. The campaign still lacks energy and focus. In addition, she has to battle generalized anger at Republicans because of the Iraq war. High level Illinois Republicans are clearly ambivalent…in fact, Thompson appears to be supporting Blagojevich and the conservatives are angry. Even if Blagojevich himself is indicted, a highly unlikely scenario,
voters might not weigh that heavily in their voting decision, or not heavily enough to turn the tide.

Time to revamp the campaign…maybe even find new campaign chiefs. Loyalty to campaign employees is fine, but a gubernatorial campaign is the big leagues and she needs a big league staff. Mount a huge voluteer grass roots effort, especially in the suburbs and downstate. Start now, three months out, instead of waiting until after Labor Day when Blago unleashes his next batch of ads. Keep bringing in prominent Republicans with broad appeal like John McCain but also Mitt Romney, John Thune, the younger the better to counteract ageism. Walk every block in every suburb so people can see her.
Practice, practice, practice before the debates…make them real debates.

It’s doable and winnable but they have to work at it.

Comment by Cassandra Monday, Jul 24, 06 @ 8:32 am
I ask again. Are the citizens of Chicago, collar counties, etc. reading a different news than the rest of us are?

why, yes, we are. and, in fact, it seems that downstaters (and the combine) want it that way. by having the capital so far from the urban center of the state, what happens in springfield, well, just stays in springfield. STATE GOVERNMENT NO LONGER MATTERS because no one will ever know.

even those like abr seem more driven by the fact that rod wouldn’t move his family down to springfield (god forbid!) than by corruption prospects (which i think is something that chicagoans, at least, tolerate). i have no doubt that blagojevich is an awful executive, but he’s correctly identified that it simply doesn’t matter. he’s going for celebrity not competent. and it won’t get reported except downstate. but that’s not where the voters are.

by your very bitterness, you’ve made yourselves irrelevant. rod who? who cares…

Comment by bored now Monday, Jul 24, 06 @ 8:32 am
Well, if the threads below get any coverage, she can win. My favorite quote fromt he Blagio campaign about the non blind hiring is that some offices were a slittle slow to comply..like the governor’s! If she can stay scandal free and weather the storm of the ridiculous “What’s she thinking?” ads, she can win.

Comment by Wumpus Extremus Maximus Monday, Jul 24, 06 @ 8:34 am
I think the Governor still has some work to do before Topinka is clearly knocked Out (TKO). He needs to run some commercials tieing her to Bush with Stem Cells, Tax Cuts for the rich and something else that is unpopular (maybe Topinka doing the polka with George Ryan); then a quick 20 second commercial that tells “point blank” things he (the Governor) has accomplished that “help” Illinois citizens with benefits continuing into the near future (like bio-medicine, nano-tech, or ethanol). As for indictments, “it aint happening.” There is “no there, there.” If there was something there, Federal prosecutors would have already gotten the Governor. There is less than 3 1/2 months before the election. Trend lines in the oppinion polls have been changing for several months (ie. public oppinion) and it would be almost cataclysmic for the polls to reverse. PS: where are all of the ole’ wise ones who said Topinka does not need a plan, it’s too early (like 2 or 3 months ago would have been too early to have a plan). What’s she thinking? And, what were those folks thinking?

Comment by SilverBackDemocrat Monday, Jul 24, 06 @ 8:45 am
B Hicks said it best. With all of the anti-blago bias in the media, the Governor still is ahead double digits.
I don’t think it much matters what Judy does at this point….and since the Gov has not done anything wrong, those waiting for the mythical indictments will be very dissapointed.
The people will vote for the best candidate to lead our state,Governor Rod Blagojevich!
Bring it on!

Comment by Bill Monday, Jul 24, 06 @ 8:48 am
Your question implies that indictments will be forthcoming. The voters must be educated by Topinka’s campaign (or her allies) that if the people don’t toss the governor out in November, they will face the likely prospect of a sitting governor standing trial in the near future. That prospect could paralyze state government, perhaps at a point when Blagojevich’s budget-busting chickens are coming home to roost.

Comment by fedup dem Monday, Jul 24, 06 @ 8:58 am
Judy still hasn’t consolidated Republican support after a divisive primary. Without some post-primary momentum over the summer months she is in a big hole (especially since Rod has enough cash and use of the bully pulpit to define her). Indictments may not be enough, and I don’t think there’s time before November for Rod to get convicted on any charges.

Comment by Boone Logan Square Monday, Jul 24, 06 @ 9:03 am
Other than some state workers who are pissed at Blago, few regular people can imagine the state being run by a woman who randomly blurts out things like “Don’t mess with momma!” It’s just not funny anymore. It’s disturbing, and it’s embarrassing, especially to professional women.

Comment by Anon Monday, Jul 24, 06 @ 9:05 am
Can Topinka win? Definately.
This election is about Blagojevich. Do you really want this guy back? The investigations are continuing. He will be indicted.

To my fellow Democrats, stop politicking and do some soul-searching instead. Are you willing to vote for Blagojevich even with indictments? It sounds like some of you will. If that is the case, please leave your comments elsewhere, as this blog depends on sane people posting, not fire-breathing partisans.

Blagojevich doesn’t deserve re-election. The only thing he is doing is shoveling as much mud at his opponent as possible. That is not a winner people, that is a loser trying to win.

Topinka’s campaign has not started. For whatever reason, we are not seeing a Blagojevichian smear campaign on TV. The hits Blagojevich is getting is self-inflicted and deservedly so. A combination of his investigations and Topinka’s campaign kicking in will end his administration.

Bottom line: regardless of polls, Blagojevich does not deserve re-election. End of story.

Comment by VanillaMan Monday, Jul 24, 06 @ 9:07 am
She can bring McCain, Romney, Thune, hell; she can bring Lynn Swann to Illinois. Itâ€™s not going to change the fact that she is Topinka.

Thatâ€™s her problem; she wants everyone else to win the election for her. It doesnâ€™t work that way. Bringing friends to town can lose it for you, but it wonâ€™t win it for you. Funny how that works.

On another note, as a Democrat, I appreciate all of Mr. Roeserâ€™s hard work. Itâ€™s pretty bad when the GOP candidate for Governor has the Democrats as well as the Republicans beating the hell out of you.

Heâ€™s giving her a little taste of her own medicine.

Comment by B Hicks Monday, Jul 24, 06 @ 9:10 am
I tend to agree that indictments “ain’t gonna happen.” So, I discount that possibility in handicapping this race.

There are two subtly different questions here. One, can a candidate who is outspent and 11 points behind Blagojevich in July win in November? I think that’s possible — Blagojevich has more than his fair share of negatives.

Two, can Topinka pull this off? Well, it sure looks unlikely — primarily because I don’t see her as capable of running the kind of aggressive campaign that would be required.

It shouldn’t be this depressing to be a Dem in a state that’s turning as blue as Illinois. Between Todd(ler) Stroger and GRod, though, I may have to skip a lot of races when I vote.

Comment by the Other Anonymous Monday, Jul 24, 06 @ 9:11 am
TWO more hits today job hiring and and elderly couple not being able to get their medication and health care because Blago will not pay the bills.When you start hurting the senior citizens then you have major problems.

Comment by DOWNSATE Monday, Jul 24, 06 @ 9:20 am
As I talk with my neighbors (”what’s Capital Fax?”, “I do not care about politics except for my tax rates”) they see a Gov who has some problems, but pick one who has not. From their point of view, state gov means nothing to them except it exists to take their money, give licenses, have money for schools, or run a state park. Blago is Thompson is Ryan is Walker is Edgar. All a bunch of rich politicians who pop up on their TV screens/in the local paper and who only really care about what’s in it for them in any situation. The neighbors basically could care less who is governor. Who has the nice PR clip? Scandal? Who cares, they all get caught in something and weasle their way out of it or have some idiot take the fall. Pretty pessimistic perspective, but I keep hearing it over and over in different parts of the state. However when the local football coach does not play someone’s kid or the school board wants to cut music that is huge news.

To me what is JBT doing to stand out against that background? Not seeing much except waiting for Feds to file more indictments. Get out and use all the keep PR means you can. Give Blago credit, he has not missed many chances to sell himself even if he has done a poor over all job. Most people do not care because it does not effect them personally..

Comment by zatoichi Monday, Jul 24, 06 @ 9:24 am
George Ryan was on the indictment rumor block for some months and he ENJOYED four years in the Governors Chair. RB has spent the last few years trying to clean up the last twenty six of state government. Who is being hired? State Government payrolls are down….so much so that some state workers are doing the jobs of two or more…. I think the electorate will vote for RB Why? because getting the barn door open and cleaning up what falls from the barn (26+++ feet of dung) is alot of hard work. And JB was very much in the thick of it when the barn was filling.

Comment by AJ Monday, Jul 24, 06 @ 9:24 am
What Topinka needs to do is talk about her! She can issue negative statements about Rod all she wants, but until she rolls out more plans and talks about why she’d be better, it is Rod’s election to win. This is oddly parallel to the democratic canadates for pres back in 04. People still suffer from ABB, but instead of Bush it seems to be anybody but Blago. Pure negativity does not work. Judy needs to make people want to vote for her, not just a reason to vote against Elvis.

Comment by Wumpus Extremus Maximus Monday, Jul 24, 06 @ 9:44 am
Without indictments, Blago will win. An 11 point lead (the Rasmussen number, which is almost the same as splitting the difference of the two internal polls) plus a big money advantage, plus a big Democratic advantage in the state, plus a trend toward Democrats nationally all spell victory. If indictments come down, it will depend on how closely connected they are to the governor. My guess is that if we don’t hear anything by October 1, they won’t happen before the election. Given that he was a Republican appointee, I don’t think that Fitzgerald will want to create any appearance of polical motivation by indicting a Democratic governor close to an election. There is no question in my mind that Fitzgerald is completely clean, but that’s all the more reason he will want to avoid any appearance of a conflict of interest.

Comment by The Centrist Monday, Jul 24, 06 @ 10:08 am
Southern Illinois isn’t progressive enough to vote for a woman for Governor. Unfortunate, but true.

Comment by So IL Gal Monday, Jul 24, 06 @ 10:56 am
The Democrats are hoping Fitzgerald would want to avoid an appearance of conflict of interest. I don’t think Fitzgerald cares about politics. When he has all his ducks in a row. Top to bottom. He will have the press conference. Justice will be done. I feel sorry for Patti and the children.

Comment by Anyone but Rod Monday, Jul 24, 06 @ 11:04 am
This is Fitzgerald we are talking baout, not Elliot “indict your way to the Ny Gov’s Mansion” Spitzer.

Comment by Wumpus Extremus Maximus Monday, Jul 24, 06 @ 11:20 am
The Governor’s negative TV ad showing JBT dancing the polka with George Ryan says it all. Expresses the opinion of many (too many for her sake) voters about her and her ties to the so-called Republicans that ran this state for far too long. On top of that she selects a guy that knowlingly tried to frame two innocent people and put them on death row to be her running mate (see Nicarico).

Not very impressed with the governor but the alternative is horrible. Don’t think she has a chance to come back.

Comment by blue Monday, Jul 24, 06 @ 11:34 am
JudyB has no chance unless the State party gets off their duff and brings the Consrvatives back into the fold. Not only that, but it will be a clean sweep for the dems in the Statewide races. Further, the GA will not change its majorities and the U.S. House races are in danger territory. Even Kirk is not a safe seat.

Jim Thompson’s non partian pursuit of profit and Jim Edgar’s inanities from Charleston has put the State Party leadership (McKenna and Tsarpalas) into shock mode. Letting Dick Cheney carry a ton of money out of state was a heavy straw.

Comment by Truthful James Monday, Jul 24, 06 @ 11:59 am
People…campaigns can change over night. Just look at the collpase of Jack Ryan…who really didn’t do anything illegal unlike the current administration that is being investigated. Still a long way to go. I do believe she needs to hit the airwaves with something though?!

Comment by scoot Monday, Jul 24, 06 @ 12:02 pm
This race was JBT’s to lose in April. Now she is behind by 11% and she has no money to speak of (at least for a gubernatorial candidate). I don’t understand what she is doing or what her large employee base is up to, either. When you have a campaign staff as large as her’s, those staffers could do things by themselves and still make an impact. However, little is being done and it’s starting to show. It’s tough to round up volunteers in the summer but someone like JBT, who is a three-term statewide officer and is running for the state’s top position, should have no trouble finding volunteers and precinct committeemen who want a change in state government. Maybe the fire isn’t there in either the campaign or the base. It’s a shame, too, because JBT is a good candidate and a proven commodity. I know a lot of people like to bash her, but you don’t win three consecutive statewide races unless you’re a good candidate who has a web of support, both from the base and the party apparatus.

Comment by Team Sleep Monday, Jul 24, 06 @ 12:06 pm
I think JBT could still win but her chances are getting slimmer and slimmer. I don’t believe any indictments will come before November so I don’t see it having an effect. JBT will do better in Southern Illinois than her poll shows IF Republicans and turned-off Democrats show up and vote. Right now, what I hear in this area is that people either plan on not voting at all or voting but skipping that race. To be honest, neither Rod or Judy are very popular around here. But, as was stated earlier, politics and a candidates fortunes can change very quickly. So, while JBT is down, and by a long way, I would not say she is completely out. But the clock is ticking and her time is nearly out.

Comment by Southern Illinois Democrat Monday, Jul 24, 06 @ 12:39 pm
In case anyone is wondering why the AccordionGal campaign is in reverse just check the Illinois Channel.
They have the video of the bust Judy Bore Fundraiser from Metro East. It includes the McCain bit where he mispronounces Shimpkus’ name and tell the “food was better when you were governor” joke.

It also has VandaliaFrank taking slap at the Attorney General. Don’t think Milk Carton Stu was in the room.

Comment by Reddbyrd Monday, Jul 24, 06 @ 12:54 pm
People jump down and read heartbreaker and you will see the kind of stuff that in the end will break the governor.Nothing like a sad story to bring out the get even vote.Wait until September and this thing really fires up.I wonder why no one will get out for a photo op with Blago not even his daddy-in-law.

Comment by DOWNSATE Monday, Jul 24, 06 @ 1:24 pm
Topinka really has only one issue, and that is corruption.

It is a tough issue for her with so many Republicans in the last administration going to jail.

She needs be able to claim that things would be different under her, and there really is no reason to believe that would be the case.

Comment by Skeeter Monday, Jul 24, 06 @ 1:35 pm
Elections are won and lost in the last 10 days. That is a fact.

Comment by Garp Monday, Jul 24, 06 @ 1:48 pm
Garp, have you forgotten about early voting?

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Jul 24, 06 @ 1:58 pm
garp: please tell that to bob dole. i don’t know about you, but i knew long before the last ten days that clinton would win re-election. there must be a reason that larry sabato has this leaning democrat while charlie cook sees it as likely democrat. but neither one of them live downstate, so…

Comment by bored now Monday, Jul 24, 06 @ 2:04 pm
The % of people who voted early in the last election is minimum. 2 votes per precict where I am from. If any of these candidates had a ground org to get their voters to vote early it might matter but that is not the case. I’m sticking with the last 10 days.

Comment by Garp Monday, Jul 24, 06 @ 2:58 pm
I’m having a hard time taking JBT supporters at face value when they denounce corruption and mismanagement in the Blagojevich administration.

The Bush administration is worse than the Blagojevich administration. So anybody claiming Dems should break with Blagojevich over corruption and mismanagement needs to be saying Republicans should break with the Hastert-led Congress.

It’s not like JBT has sterling credentials as a reformer. She’s an insider and if that means she’s got to work with corrupt Republicans, like Bush and Ryan, so be it.

How many voters will “protest” by voting for Rich Whitney? This is the more interesting question. And if Whitney got media coverage how well could he do?

Comment by Carl Nyberg Monday, Jul 24, 06 @ 3:29 pm
Another problem…as she sinks in the polls, JBT
may have more difficulty attracting donations.
Why would anyone put money into a campaign that is lagging in the polls, with a less than energetic candidate and less than savvy campaign management team. Another reason why she needs to bring in some attractive out of staters for fundraisers.

I am planning on sending my next political contribution to Christine Radogno.
Now that really is a good vs evil political race. Alexi’s candidacy and campaign smell far too much like a back room with cigars puffing.

Comment by Cassandra Monday, Jul 24, 06 @ 3:44 pm
SilverBackDemocrat 8:24: Besides what JBT won’t do, you say that the governor will win again because of his “peoples’ needs” issues. He has great plans for peoples’ needs and has a great media campaign to put them out there, but there is no money trail to back them up. He is like Whimpy, paying for his Monday’s lunch on Tuesday, if he has the cash. All he has are plans, plans and more plans, a plan a week at this point but who’s going to pay for it - you and I with out tax dollars and that includes the citizens above I-80! If you think the next governor, Democrat or Republican won’t have to raise taxes, let’s talk about some swamp land in southern Illiois. Then everyone will really be squealing because by then the economy and job situation will be worse and gas will never come down to what it was a year ago, so how well do you think increased taxes will sit?

Add to that the fact that you are paying, through the use of state property, supplies and manpower, for his re-election campaign. If you don’t think so, ask someone from his administration about the 600K booklets for AllKids that are being printed against a sign-up of only 43K. Who’s going to receive the excessive overrun - how about all those people and their kids now on Medicare and how about all those VOTERS around the state. And guess who’s picture and name will be all over this stuff - despite the rules against it in the ethics test the governor so proudly passed with an A. Add to that the mailing costs which are expected to be in excess of 200K and you’ve got quite a tidy package of state paid campaign literature.

So keep being happy about his “peoples needs” initiatives, because you and I and our kids will be paying through the nose for years to come, whether he wins or loses. Ah, where’s Diogenes when you need him???

Comment by Disgusted Monday, Jul 24, 06 @ 6:04 pm
B-Hick’s I posted the first comment & you are right..the papers ect. are crucifying the “Guv” ect. ect. But it’s Topinka that’s sitting on her thumbs. If she’s got no real dough or holding on to it till the “After Labor Day” push then get in his face & hit him with his crap with earned media. Press releases, position documents, letters to the editor & act like she wants the job !!! People read papers & hear stories…they want to hear it from the candidate, what they are going to do about it & that “ain’t” happening !!!!!

Comment by anon. Monday, Jul 24, 06 @ 6:13 pm
The Governor’s Office is also asking for client names and addresses from state agencies. When is this going to stop!! This has never happened before in state government.

Comment by So Blue Democrat Monday, Jul 24, 06 @ 7:39 pm
you are all cought up in spin. History repeatedly shows from Thompson-Stevenson to Ryan-Poshard practically all the undecideds break against the frontrunner. I know for a personal fact.

Comment by joe novak Monday, Jul 24, 06 @ 8:29 pm
So Blue Democrat … it will STOP only when they defeat this clod in November !!! He has got to go before this state is completely up-ended. Remember to vote & JBT wake-up & get with it !!!

Comment by anon. Monday, Jul 24, 06 @ 9:26 pm
So Blue Democrat: He has to get the address list for those AllKids brochures from somewhere.

Comment by Disgusted Tuesday, Jul 25, 06 @ 7:07 am
Not an expert on political campaigns, but it would seem prudent, knowing that many voters come from the pool of otherwise uninformed or half-informed dippy Americans who vote based on the last sound bite they caught, if JBT were to come out swinging in right about the month of September.

She doesn’t have the campaign war chest that Blago has, but she has some moderate views on the social issues that can attract indies and disgruntled Democrats who know that Blago is corrupt as all hell.

The fact that we are at war with terrorists and yet Blagojevich has appointed a top aide to Nation of Islam’s Minister Bigot (my nickname for him) to a post on his hate crimes panel, of all places to put someone with those kinds of ties, scares the living daylights out of me.

If he claims that he didn’t know just who Sister Claudette was at first, and that she was tied so closely to the Nation of Islam, then the man cannot do his research as well as he does his hair.

I hope to see Blow-dry-o-vich trounced come November, because I do not want him in charge when the next batch of disgruntled whack jobs decides to case out the City of Chicago for new targets to blow up. I think Judy Topinka and DuPage County State’s Attorney, Joe Birkett, will do a better job at keeping their eyes on the ball when it comes to safety in the face of terrorist threats.

And then again, she has support from Rudy Giuliani. You can’t get a better endorsement than to have the guy who was so calm and collected in the face of the 9/11 horror stumping for you.

She should work smarter instead of harder and just use her money wisely closer to the election. In fact, as a smart treasurer, I’m not surprised that she’s doing just that if it is intentional. Don’t blow your whole wad, like Blago has been doing (and rather wastefully, I might add) with his negative campaign commercials, but just hit hard with what money you are limited to, and then MAKE IT COUNT.

If the spunky redhead can do more with less, then she’s the one for Illinois, no doubt about it.

Comment by Angie Sunday, Aug 6, 06 @ 7:12 pm