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No crosstabs yet, but the Tarrance Group - a Republican pollster working for Peraica - has a poll that claims Tony Peraica is leading Todd Stroger 42-38 with 20 percent undecided.
One very important point to remember: Lots of non-machine people have run lots of polls in the past where they were leading or right in the game and then BOOM! the machine kicks in late and they get clobbered. Also, we don’t have any crosstabs so we don’t know how the African-American vote is breaking (black voters tend to break very late).
They posted a couple of other answers in the executive summary (doc file):
· Just 27% of voters say Cook County is going in the right direction, and a 52% say things are off on the wrong track.· Fully two-thirds (66%) of voters disagree with the statement that “the next Cook County Board President should be as much like retiring President Stroger as possible.†[…]
Todd Stroger, however, suffers from a negative image, only compounded by the recent decision to select him as the Democratic candidate. Of the 83% who say they know about that decision, fully 62% are less likely to vote for Stroger because it.
And they add this:
Currently, just 29% of voters say they will vote for Judy Baar Topinka, while Blagojevich receives fully 60%, with just 10% undecided. The fact that voters have largely made up their mind in the Gubernatorial race, means greater attention will be paid to down ticket races like the Cook County Board President sooner.
Those Peraica numbers for Topinka are very close to Topinka’s own poll, which had her down 60-30 in Cook.
The methodology is in the exec summary, but the MoE was 4.9 percent, with 407 registered, likely voters surveyed. Breakdown was 24 percent Republicans and 65 percent Democrats.
UPDATE: Also, Peraica supporters, remember this: The machine don’t play beanbag. This will be a brutal, brutal race.
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Jul 25, 06 @ 1:47 pm
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Who cares the whole things fixed anyway. I just stated what 90% of the Cook County voters think.
Comment by Dejavu Tuesday, Jul 25, 06 @ 1:58 pm
Quite true, quite true, on the history of machine votes, Rich.
But it remains to be seen whether all Democratic Committeemen will go full bore for “Toddler,” or whether some will even be secretly backing Peraica. This seems to be a very different kind of race, at its early stage.
Still, its great news for Peraica, given that (1) most voters don’t even know him that well, and (2) the Democrats could run a ham sandwich in Cook County and still get 38% of the vote.
Long way to go, though, and Peraica still needs to get enough money for TV ads - it’s crucial. Toddler and the unions will be running them aplenty.
But if I were a Daley, I’d be very worried about this (among other things.)
Comment by Bubs Tuesday, Jul 25, 06 @ 1:59 pm
I am not saying that JBT should beat Blago 95-5%, but if these umbers are correct, these voters are truly idiots. She is not getting 30%?
Comment by Wumpus Extremus Maximus Tuesday, Jul 25, 06 @ 2:04 pm
I think it is crazy that Toddler Stroger even gets 38%. If more people knew Peraica he would be up by 20 points. I think the voters memories will easily go until November.
This is the first time in 40 years that a Republican has led in Cook County. This is crazy good news for all Chicago reformers, including Claypool and Quigley.
Ashur Odishoo
Candidate
State Representative 11th District
Comment by Ashur Odishoo Tuesday, Jul 25, 06 @ 2:10 pm
obviously, the tarrance group must be peraica’s pollster, since they are a republican pollster. i wonder if they’ve ever polled cook before…
Comment by bored now Tuesday, Jul 25, 06 @ 2:11 pm
Wow
The best Fast EddieV.’s hand picked guy can do is up 4 after Stroger is pounded for a month in the media outlet in Cook County.
Not a goods sign.
When the race falls out of the news, Fast Tony P. will be forgotten and end up getting beat in a landslide.
TTFN!
Comment by Reddbyrd Tuesday, Jul 25, 06 @ 2:13 pm
I had to laugh at that poll. They stated “Cook County voters are clearly tired of corruption and cronyism in county government. But the message seems clear. It’s OK in State Government. Or could it be that Stroger is black and not quite as slick as Blagojevich ?
Comment by Dejavu Tuesday, Jul 25, 06 @ 2:14 pm
Reddbyrd,
Please try to keep the slurs remotely accurate. Eddie V’s allies, Maureen Murphy and Liz Gorman, are Peraica’s sharp opponents within the Cook GOP, and did everything they could to defeat him in the recent Lyons Twp. Committeeman’s race. As usual, you are way off.
Wumpus,
This is a Cook County poll. It shows Blago up 60-30 in Cook County, not the state. Still, this is a big problem for Topinka. She must do better than that in Cook.
Comment by Bubs Tuesday, Jul 25, 06 @ 2:33 pm
Dejavu, it could be voters see Peraica as a reform alternative to Stroger, but don’t see JBT as a reform alternative to Blagojevich.
Could it be her cozying with corrupt Republicans, like President Bush?
Comment by Carl Nyberg Tuesday, Jul 25, 06 @ 2:50 pm
Since Todd Stroger was my last choice among all the candidates mentioned to suceed his father, I’m actually quite worried about the outcome of CCB presidential election. However, I think this 42/28 split is bad news for Peraica. He may have peaked at 42%.
Although I haven’t met Stroger personally, he is not an ogre - just a mediocrity.The Cook County electorate will find Sroger more acceptable than Peraica once they get to know more about both candidates. Maybe I’m engaging in wishful thinking. There is definitely a lot of anger in the electorate about the process and outcome of selecting a replacement.
I’m perceiving striking historical parallels to the situations that emerged after the death of the elder Mayor Daley and Mayor Washington. Consequently, I’m predicting a one term CCB Presidency for the November winner ,much like Bilandic and Sawyer.
Based upon the assumption of a sizable African - American turnout for Stroger, I think Todd will prevail in November 2006. I think the Stoger-
Peraica contest helps the Governor by boosting AFrican- American turnout.
If I was a Republican, I would be excited about Peraica’s potential. Republicans should
take the trouble to recruit a blue ribbon,socially moderate Republican canidate in 2010 when Cook County voters will defintely be ready for reform.
Comment by Captain America Tuesday, Jul 25, 06 @ 3:04 pm
Carl- At least the Republicans are showing up for Judy. Looks like the big name Democrats are running from Rod. Rod has to sneak out of state to the east coast in the middle of the night. Surprise Surprise
Comment by Dejavu Tuesday, Jul 25, 06 @ 3:11 pm
Rich, it will be beyond brutal, and might even get selectively violent before it is over, if past Democratic intimidation practices are any guide.
Just ponder the amount of money in corrupt contracts, consultants, hiring and grants that were approved last year, and you will get an idea of what is at stake to the Daley Machine. Heck, maintaining the money flow to Machine recipients is a main reason for Toddler to be there, as He Will Do As He Is Told.
Peraica, on the other hand, will do better for the people. So it will be the Good Fight. The time to stand has come. Let them do what they will.
Comment by Bubs Tuesday, Jul 25, 06 @ 3:41 pm
I’m voting for anyone running agaist Stroger - although I am a life long pro-choice Dem. I also lie to any pollster that calls me - and always say I am voting for the dem.
I don’t believe the machine always pulls it out in the end. Ask Dan Hynes about that.
Comment by Abandon Tuesday, Jul 25, 06 @ 4:44 pm
Peraica’s only problem with the Machine was that he had to wait in line too long. He himself has admitted that’s the only reason he switched parties. All about opportunism. Nothing to do with issues.
Peraica’s hardly some reformer. A fact that will soon become clear to all.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Jul 25, 06 @ 7:37 pm
I’ve heard that the Democrats are going to dump a truckload of dirt on Peraica. They better have one big boulder instead.
I think Todd should be very worried about any deals being cut behind his back. There are alot of people who have been waiting in line a long time to get that job. Now, their best chance is to hope Peraica gets in and then snag the Democratic nomination in ‘10.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Wednesday, Jul 26, 06 @ 12:44 am
5 will get you 10 that the D’s have had their goons snooping through Peraica’s garbage for the past several months.
Comment by Snidely Whiplash Wednesday, Jul 26, 06 @ 7:28 am
The machine plays beanbag–that is funny Rich
yeah beanbag with Jon Burge
Comment by Jeremiah J Wednesday, Jul 26, 06 @ 8:11 am
Yellow Dog, the arrogance with which Beavers and the Stroger team treated others was pretty extreme.
Comment by Carl Nyberg Wednesday, Jul 26, 06 @ 12:13 pm
Machine don’t play beanbag?
Anyone who moved into any of the city’s close in neighborhoods–name one–with Peraica’s story as a kid and an immigrant orphan to boot knows the machine mentality really well.
And anyone with a similar background will know that Peraica’s innards must be made of stainless steel.
They’ll throw punches from the crowd and try to get in some kicks if you go down– but they’ll fight with their eyes closed on the run when confronted–they’re afraid of getting hit.
Based on his background–this man is prepared.
Comment by Been There Wednesday, Jul 26, 06 @ 12:37 pm
been there is right,Peraica is the man for the job.ive been there done that
Comment by Done that Thursday, Jul 27, 06 @ 9:58 pm
Buon luogo, congratulazioni, il mio amico!
Comment by Azzurra Saturday, Nov 4, 06 @ 2:31 pm