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* It’s still really early, but with two polls now showing Bruce Rauner taking the lead in the GOP primary race for governor, do you think any of the other candidates should drop out?

If not, why? If so, which one, or which ones and why?

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Nov 27, 13 @ 1:57 pm

Comments

You were right from the beginning Rich. This is not the typical rich guy running for governor. Will they clear for him? Maybe Dillard? Maybe even Brady, seeing how he can’t raise money. But not Rutherford. I don’t see him dropping.

Running against Quinn, I see Quinn as a heavy favorite, but never count anyone out. However, with pension reform a near-done deal, I don’t see what Rauner runs on now. Same-sex marriage, death penalty gone, probably not a need to extend tax increase. Looks like employment is moving in the right direction.

Then there is the Rahm problem.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Nov 27, 13 @ 2:03 pm
I think Pat Quinn should drop out… at this point Tio Hardiman is better equipped to take them on.

Comment by just sayin Wednesday, Nov 27, 13 @ 2:03 pm
Yes. Dillard and Brady.

Comment by 4 percent Wednesday, Nov 27, 13 @ 2:04 pm
Yes Dillard should probably drop out. While it isn’t hurting him any personally to stay in, if he really thinks Quinn needs to go (pretty sure most of us are on that page) it’s hard not to see him as splitting the anti-Rauner vote and helping Quinn. With no cash, no strong support, and no niche he would need a massive implosion from the other 3 to have a chance.

Comment by Mason born Wednesday, Nov 27, 13 @ 2:05 pm
No. The GOP primary universe is relatively small — about 700,000 votes last time.

Dillard and Brady each got over 155,000 last time in a crowded field and without much money. Who’s to say they won’t do it again? And that could get them close.

Rutherford’s not going anywhere. I’m sure he would like a one-on-one with Rauner, but I doubt he’ll get it.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Nov 27, 13 @ 2:05 pm
No. I think Rauner has seen his high water mark. He has spent a bank vault of money and although he is ahead, its a long way to the finish line. No one has put up a series of TV ads yet attacking him, and the ads write themselves. Once the Rahm connections, Daley connections, 9 houses, clouting of children into private schools, and pro choice views are shown to a republican primary electorate Bruce Rauner will become a foot note in Illinois political history.

Comment by John A Logan Wednesday, Nov 27, 13 @ 2:16 pm
I want to see them all fight fight fight on to the end. It’s good for the economy.

Comment by Chavez-respecting Obamist Wednesday, Nov 27, 13 @ 2:19 pm
All should drop out and back Willy, he has the best chance to win.

Comment by Ghost Wednesday, Nov 27, 13 @ 2:26 pm
Unlike the other Anonymous on this thread, I will not begin by kissing Rich’s bum and will just answer the question.

I agree with word. Furthermore, there are many “variables” between the candidates that may be important to Primary voters, including govt:private sector experience and type of experience ratios, LGs, etc.

From a “practical” (i.e., solely financial) perspective, I can see why someone would try to make the argument for others who have no money to drop out (especially Rauner staff and supporters).

Looking at our values, campaigns should NOT be bought and therefore, all the candidates should stay in until the bitter end.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Nov 27, 13 @ 2:36 pm
BTW, Mr. Rauner, someone keeps referencing “intelligence” gathering within the context of your campaign.

You didn’t hire a bunch of former spooks, did you? If people keep tossing that out there, it might weave a very nasty perception. Highly dubious gamesmanship and quite…foreign.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Nov 27, 13 @ 2:42 pm
I believe the appropriate term AND context is “opposition research.” Just in case you didn’t know.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Nov 27, 13 @ 2:49 pm
Considering that “undecided” was leading both polls, it’s a little early to tell someone to drop out.

Comment by for the record Wednesday, Nov 27, 13 @ 2:56 pm
Brady and Dillard should drop out, to let Rutherford get the votes to beat Rauner. Having said that, Word has a good point about the size of the primary, but I don’t feel that Brady and Dillard and Rauner are going to beat Quinn; they are all too far to the right. Rutherford may not either, but he is much more centrist than the others.

Comment by downstate commissioner Wednesday, Nov 27, 13 @ 3:00 pm
=but I don’t feel that Brady and Dillard and Rauner are going to beat Quinn;=

Yes, well if opinions rather than votes won elections, we’d be living in a completely different country, which most likely gets pushed around–alot by outsiders.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Nov 27, 13 @ 3:04 pm
I agree with Word for his reasons and a few more. Dillard started this thing arguably as #1 and let it slip away. I don’t think he should incur any more debt, but he should try to maximize his much longer and closer relationship with earned media to get his word out as best as he can. Lightening can always strike in these things. If he hangs around, goes to the free stuff, does everything you can do that doesn’t cost money, he could be in position to benefit from anything happening that makes people decide he’s the “Steady Eddie” of the group. Late deciders tend to be more cautious types. As Slinger pointed out the universe just isn’t that huge to allow anyone to really run away with this is a 4 person race. Dillard needs to reinvent his whole campaign apparatus between the holidays and come out with fewer things to have to think about. Just work. He can raise enough little cash from people who appreciate the “visible” effort. He can take advantage of Editorial interviews and forums if he looses the worrisome chip on his shoulder. My opinion is that if this turns into a 1:1 race, any one of the 3 will get crushed. It just offers a single sniper and single focus to the guy with the greater arsenal. JMO.

Comment by A guy... Wednesday, Nov 27, 13 @ 3:07 pm
Pardon me “lose” not “loose”.

Comment by A guy... Wednesday, Nov 27, 13 @ 3:07 pm
IF, Brady, Dillard and Rutherford all agree that one of them should win rather than Rauner, then they should agree on a specific date and poll. Whichever one is the lowest in the poll should agree to drop out - to give the remaining two a chance to overtake Rauner.

BUT, I don’t see this occurring, for the following reasons:
Dillard - As Rich has pointed out, Dillard has resigned his Senate seat. What else does he have to do?
Brady - Brady was trailing in most of the polls leading up to the primary last time. He’s likely convinced the magic will happen again.
Rutherford - Rutherford has been told that he has the best ground game and that will trump everything else.

Hence, for one reason or the other, none of the three will likely pull out before election day.

For a wake-up call, Brady should compare his campaign donations at this point 4 years ago. I’m pretty sure it will show that he is woefully behind.

Comment by Downstate Wednesday, Nov 27, 13 @ 3:20 pm
Ideally Rauner would drop out because I think he’ll make a terrible governor if elected, but I’ll choose Dillard. He decided he lost in 2010 because he wasn’t conservative enough when it is far more likely that there were too many candidates from DuPage (and the Chicagoland area) who split the vote allow Brady to squeak in. For that reason, his campaign this time is doomed.

However, I couldn’t care less. I just want him to exit because his exit would be the most interesting shake up. Who would Edgar back? How his (let’s be generous) “base” of loyal DuPage GOPers and Edgar fans lean? I just don’t see that happening with anyone else.

Comment by MEP Wednesday, Nov 27, 13 @ 3:26 pm
Kirk Dillard. His campaign is embarrassing and his positions are embarrassing. Bill Brady, while also a social conservative, appears far more sincere in his positions than Dillard, which at least earns him a modicum of respect from me. Dillard, on the other hand, appears crass and craven. Consolidating the social conservative vote behind Brady may give him what is necessary to move over the hump of Rauner, especially since Rauner is a coward on a lot of social issues.

Comment by Precinct Captain Wednesday, Nov 27, 13 @ 3:34 pm
Dillard, he has the weekend to get the signatures for his Senate seat. I don’t believe he’s actually resigned.
Granted that would screw up Reboletti and Nybo pretty good but at least Kirk stays valid.

Comment by The DuPage Bard Wednesday, Nov 27, 13 @ 3:44 pm
=DuPage GOPers and Edgar fans lean=

Just so that you know, I am a Dillard supporter, I am not a DuPage GOPer, and I am pretty far from what would be referred to as an “Edgar fan.”

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Nov 27, 13 @ 4:10 pm