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Today’s numbers ain’t good

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Illinois

* I don’t think this means people are having fewer babies. Pretty sure it means people are leaving…

The Land of Lincoln grew by only about 52,000 residents between the last census on April 1, 2010, and the latest estimate, on July 1, 2013, the bureau said.

In the last year of that period — from July 1, 2012, to July 1, 2013 — the growth rate was 0.1 percent, with the state gaining an estimated 13,943 residents to reach a population of 12,883,135.

In comparison, the country as a whole grew about 2 percent since the census, adding 7.4 million people for a total of 316.1 million.

Illinois’ very slow growth was outpaced by the Midwest region for the most recent year-over-year comparison. During the period, the regional population grew 0.3 percent.

Ugh.

Full data here.

* Since the last full Census, Illinois’ population grew 0.2 percent. Nearby states…

Indiana: 1.34%

Michigan: 0.12%

Ohio: 0.3%

Wisconsin: 0.98%

Discuss.

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 12:30 pm

Comments

Meanwhile, Texas picked up 1.2 million between 2010 and 2013…

Hmmm.

Comment by John Boch Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 12:34 pm
Really don’t know.

Much of the growth here in recent years has been immigration from Mexico. As things have improved there, people have been going back.

Google “reverse Mexican immigration” and you’ll see a slew of articles on it.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 12:37 pm
Somehow this must be Bruce Rauners fault…

But seriously I think wordslinger is on to something, but the question remains what makes Illinois such that it is growing slower than other places nearby..

Comment by OneMan Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 12:40 pm
Things aren’t good but look at the Midwest (0.85%) and Northeast (1.02%) in general… other than the Dakota’s, no one is really growing all that much. I’ve got Illinois growing ‘faster’ than Ohio and Michigan when comparing 7/1/10 to 7/1/13 fwiw.

Comment by From the 'Dale to HP Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 12:43 pm
I’d agree, partially, with wordslinger, but also, we’ve gotten the national negative press. Wisconsin is up? But WI is also in the bottom 5 for job growth, so how does that work? WI, for the most part, has higher income tax levels than IL, same with all of the neighboring states, but IN. No one would know that from the media.

Comment by Union Thug Gramma Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 12:44 pm
One of the five slowest growing states in the country during that timeframe.

As an added bonus, Pew released a study yesterday projecting that Illinois will have the slowest job growth in the country in 2014.

Keep on keepin’ on.

Comment by Formerly Known As... Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 12:46 pm
Yes, a lot of it’s job opportunities in other states. That’s something we can’t compete with right now with your businesses environment, not even with Chicago’s market.

Comment by Ahoy! Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 12:46 pm
This article indicates Illinois had the second highest move out rate.

http://www.myfoxchicago.com/story/24335949/illinois-ranks-second-for-states-with-highest-move-out-rates

Comment by Logic not emotion Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 12:46 pm
This is the continuation of a long-term trend. Population in the industrial midwest peaked about 1960 and has been in a slow decline since. The uptick in 2010 in Illinois was primarily immigrants, but we’ve done so much to make these new neighbors feel welcome that it shouldn’t be a surprise that they moved on, or moved home. I thought that’s what many American’s wanted, didn’t Romney call it self-deportation?

And since the our tax dollars built the infrastructure that allows millions to live in the desert southwest, why would anyone want to stay here and endure the winter we’re having?

Unless we fix the broken immigration system in this country, and soon, we’re going to start seeing ghost towns in rural Illinois. The kids are leaving the farms and small towns and they are not coming back.

Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 12:51 pm
Oh, this is really, really bad news - primarily for the real estate market. Residential real estate of course, but also for commercial/income producing real estate.

Those folks all rely heavily on population growth, and there’s an enormous amount of real estate development lending which includes population growth estimates. It’s a key factor.

A lot of these development loans are short term/balloons - designed to be refinanced within 5-7 years after initial startup.

If you are trying to roll these loans over (or repackage them), and a key component in the plan is future population growth, and it’s basically stagnant here in IL, that means your entire cost structure originally built for your project financing just gets called into question.

Not good. There’s going to be some worried people out there.

Comment by Judgment Day Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 12:53 pm
Well another piece of it I suspect is the aging population. Don’t know about most of you but if/when I retire I am not looking forward to whatever my property tax bill will be at that point…

Our property tax rates don’t mesh well with fixed incomes…

Comment by OneMan Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 12:55 pm
No one contacted me about census. No one at my door, no mail, no phone call. I know others that were not contacted either. Do we just have lazy census takers in Illinois?

Comment by lil enchilada Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 12:55 pm
I’m not sure why people assume that this is a bad thing.

Northern Illinois, and Chicago in particular, are still known for having a high quality and highly educated work force.

We’ve seen that over the years from companies like Boeing and ADM.

Before we conclude that decreasing population is bad, we need to look to see who is leaving.

When Northwestern grads are leaving to find great jobs elsewhere, then we have a problem.

When the elderly are moving to Florida (and in so doing, provide a burden on that state’s social services) we really shouldn’t be too upset to see them go.

So I really think we need to dig deeper before deciding if the decrease is good or bad for Illinois.

Comment by Smoggie Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 12:56 pm
It is not shocking that we are losing population overall but what does surprise me is that Illinois is losing more than surrounding Midwestern states. Shows we are doing something drastically wrong around here.

Comment by Stones Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 12:59 pm
“Reverse immigration” only tells a partial story - with birthright citizenship and differing demographic profiles, illegal immigration is definitely contributing to the state population, even if the “net” balance of new immigrants hit a temporary equalibrium. The Sun-Times story earlier this week on changes in the school population shows this as well.

But Smoggie is right - it’s not just population and demographics. We know there are two Chicagos - a high skilled jobs/workers Chicago and a low skilled jobs/workers Chicago. So long as #1 stays constant, people don’t notice (care?) much what happens to group #2, at least until election time. If #1 starts to decline, watch out.

Comment by lake county democrat Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 1:03 pm
Hey, if Illinois can get that fracting going hot maybe we can see growth like the Dakotas. Otherwise, we gotta compete with all the islands in Wisconsin & all that great cheese.

Comment by dupage dan Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 1:04 pm
JB, Texas’ population growth has been driven primarily by immigration — legal and otherwise — from Mexico, and by the growth of existing families of Mexican origin.

I’m sure you’re down with that.

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/nation/census/2011-02-17-texas-census_N.htm

47 speaks the truth.

Pick virtually any rural Illinois county on wiki and you’ll see population has been steadily declining or stabilizing for 100 years.

It’s the same all over rural America.

Growth has been in the Sunbelt and Southwest Metros, thanks to the Yankee taxpayers who paid for the water, power and interstates.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 1:04 pm
One more number: -16 F.

Comment by A. Nonymous Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 1:06 pm
Why would a young person WANT to move to Illinois instead of Austin (for example)? The only national press we get is when our politicians go to jail, murder rates explode, or when an arctic vortex dumps record lows. Whereas locations like Austin gets headlines like “Fastest Growing City,” “Live Music Capital of the World,” etc. etc.

Comment by Dirty Red Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 1:08 pm
Our appeal is becoming more selective, is that it? Apologies if this turns the vitriol in the comments up to 11…

Comment by Awkward... Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 1:08 pm
There are dozens of factors, but I would add two. First…NAFTA, CAFTA, and all the Free Trade Agreements did not help. As we exported out manufacturing base, middle class jobs went with it, and in turn it gave people fewer economic reasons to move here and start a family. Also, often forgotten is the loss of 1000’s of residents when the coal fields of Southern Illinois dried up 15 years ago. Many of those people followed the work to West Virginia, or the Dakotas. I am not saying those two are the largest contributing factors, but they are in the mix.

Comment by John A Logan Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 1:10 pm
lil enchilada — the Census numbers quoted here are estimates. The Census Bureau collects birth and death records from the states and counties, looks at IRS data to estimate the net domestic migration, and uses the American Community Survey (ACS) to estimate foreign migration. The ACS is the only item that involves contact with individual households, and it only samples a fraction of them.

One outcome of the low growth rate is it makes the loss of a congressional seat in 2020 nearly certain.

Comment by muon Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 1:10 pm
–Why would a young person WANT to move to Illinois instead of Austin (for example)?–

Yet they do. Visit the North Side of Chicago.

The greater Loop is the fastest growing urban area in America.

How do we keep the kids in Rock Island, Mt. Vernon, Rockford, Decatur, etc., is the question. And it’s a tough one.

http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20130302/ISSUE01/303029987/the-hottest-urban-center-in-the-u-s-chicagos-mega-loop

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 1:12 pm
Illinois is fairly receptive to and supportive of our undocumented immigrant populations in comparison to most other locales… drivers licenses, in-state tuition, health care coverage, sanctuary status in our largest city, etc.

Illinois is also fairly receptive to and supportive of our documented immigrant populations in comparison to most other locales… the 5th highest percentage of foreign-born business owners in the country according to Census data, some of the largest ethnic groups outside of their home countries in the world, many immigrant-friendly policies, etc.

If Illinois isn’t making “these new neighbors feel welcome”, then it stands to reason virtually no one is.

Comment by Formerly Known As... Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 1:15 pm
Florida will overtake New York in population later this year. so Cali, Texas and Florida. warmy warm. Illinois is still 5th, not too shabby.

Comment by PoolGuy Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 1:18 pm
Is there county population data available? It seems the leading economic export of rural / smaller counties is high school graduates. Data would prove / disprove that.

As an immigrant to Illinois, don’t underestimate the weather. Americans will spend 4 - 6 months of the year hiding inside an air conditioned house to avoid heat / humidity, but flee screaming from the prospect of 3 months of the year where it might, or might not, snow.

Comment by Anyone Remember? Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 1:20 pm
AK, if you go on wiki, they track census data for every county.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 1:20 pm
-Unless we fix the broken immigration system in this country, and soon, we’re going to start seeing ghost towns in rural Illinois. The kids are leaving the farms and small towns and they are not coming back.-

Not really sure what one has to do with the other. Immigrants play little to no role in farming in downstate Illinois - meatpacking at places like the Cargill plant in Beardstown maybe, but not farming in general. The death of small towns seems to be more related to school consolidation that anything else…once a town loses its school, there’s no incentive for young families to move in.

Most small towns within an hour or so of larger cities like Springfield and Peoria are actually growing as they are fast becoming bedroom communities for those cities. My home town has actually doubled in population over the last 40 years.

Comment by countyline Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 1:23 pm
“When the elderly are moving to Florida (and in so doing, provide a burden on that state’s social services) we really shouldn’t be too upset to see them go.

So I really think we need to dig deeper before deciding if the decrease is good or bad for Illinois.”

Smoggie, here’s where the problems start to occur. Most (not all, but most) of the folks you are talking about are either homeowners or renters.

If homeowners, probably a fair portion of their ‘wealth’ is real estate based. If they are relocating out of IL, they are probably disposing of their real estate, and if we have stagnant population growth, that’s likely to EVENTUALLY create deflation in the local real estate market.
(Why? - expanding pool of sellers, stagnant pool of buyers; = tendency toward lower prices).

Who is going to acquire all those homes? What do you think the impact is going to be with flat (if not decreasing) real estate values, and then with even slightly increasing property taxes year-to-year? That’s not a pleasant picture to contemplate.

That’s what extended flat population growth can lead to. And if you remove wealth out of the local/state economy as part of the process, well everything else remaining becomes less valuable.

This is seriously not good news.

Comment by Judgment Day Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 1:24 pm
=== How do we keep the kids in Rock Island, Mt. Vernon, Rockford, Decatur, etc., is the question. And it’s a tough one. ===

Well said, as usual. Oddly enough, China is facing the exact same challenge in this regard.

As their young, ambitious, upwardly-mobile youth drift from rural areas towards “the big city”, those rural areas are slowly withering on the vine.

This question is both local and global in scope, and it’s a pressing one for many communities.

Comment by Formerly Known As... Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 1:26 pm
I can only relate that in Lake Forest on my block, three young recent college graduates left for Washington State, Upper Michigan and Boston this year, after finding no work in Illinois. They had engineering, architectural or business degrees.

How many 20 somethings find good paying jobs outside of Illinois? This can’t all be coincidental. Romney even made an issue of it during the last Presidential campaign as occurring on a national basis.

Post WW! Greece exported thousands of Greeks to the USA, and not all of them arrived legally. Roughly half returned to Greece within 10 years, either making enough money to like more comfortably over there, or just being homesick. The modern day Mexico back and forth example seems the same.

I don’t see immigration reform fixing the problem much other than legalizing those present who aren’t.

That leaves us again with the same numbers problem.

Comment by Louis G. Atsaves Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 1:37 pm
80% of the population in the US will live in cities by 2030…that IL is losing population in relation to other surrouding States does not surprise me. Reasons: aging boomers leaving for better climes, families having fewer children, reverse immigration, high tax burden overall, brutal winters, and after 2008 recession, folks go
where the jobs are…I really doubt people leave because of perceived or real corruption. It’s the
economy people…

Comment by Loop Lady Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 1:39 pm
===Immigrants play little to no role in farming in downstate Illinois===

Perhaps, but I suspect you mean immigrants aren’t needed to pick corn/soy beans simce that’s all automated. You’re probably right. But don’t we have a fledging vinyard cluster in southern Illinois? Aren’t there any large scale produce farms near St. Anne for example, that could use some help?

And it’s not just in agriculture. Won’t the local Huck’s need someone to open and close the gas station? Who’s going to empty the bed pans in the nursing home in Carmi or DuQuoin or in 20 years?

Immigrants bring growth. It’s time to fix the broken system we have.

Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 1:41 pm
Population numbers should not be the only variable considered.

Mumbai, India has 20.5M people within its metropolitan area and also has one of the highest GDP’s of any asian city. Is the population of Mumbai good or bad?

North Dakota has a population of 700,000, yet their 2012 economy grew five times faster than the rest of the country.

Comment by Endangered Moderate Species Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 1:42 pm
It’s numerical proof for what we see and what we hear. This state still has plenty to offer. Air Conditioning did more to create outward migration from the Midwest than any social or fiscal policy. Let’s fix a few things here and we’ll be just fine.

Comment by A guy... Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 1:43 pm
–China is facing the exact same challenge in this regard.–

China doesn’t see rural depopulation as a problem.

They are, in fact, forcibly relocating 250 million rural souls into the cities to make them urban consumers and keep economic growth humming.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/16/world/asia/chinas-great-uprooting-moving-250-million-into-cities.html?_r=0

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 1:44 pm
And yet, according to Census data as well as reports completed by Rob Paral and others, Illinois’ foreign-born population is growing at a more rapid rate than Illinois’ native-born population.

From an immigrant’s point of view, we seem to be doing pretty darn well.

Could things be better? Always.

But immigration policy does not appear to be the root cause of our population decline in this case.

Comment by Formerly Known As... Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 1:53 pm
===forcibly relocating 250 million rural souls into the cities to make them urban consumers and keep economic growth humming===

Yes, but they don’t allow rural peasants to buy homes or live permanently in the cities. And they can’t sell their farm land back home either.

Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 1:56 pm
–North Dakota has a population of 700,000, yet their 2012 economy grew five times faster than the rest of the countary.–

The oil and the gas have been in the Bakken for about 400 million years. I don’t think ND state government had much to do with today’s growth. It’s technology and sweet, easily refinable crude.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 1:57 pm
Judgment Day, that’s an interesting theory, but as a practical matter we haven’t seen it.

Home prices are on the rise, at least in Chicago. Home ownership is also on the rise.

Would they be going up more if population was higher? That’s possible of course, but the real estate trends over the past two years or so have been very good.

Comment by Smoggie Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 1:58 pm
@wordslinger, that is interesting, seeing the number of academic and media sources detailing concerns over the plight of “rural flight” in China. Perhaps the view of this has begun shifting.

http://psychsocgerontology.oxfordjournals.org/content/61/5/S256.short

www.sfgate.com/news/article/China-s-Rural-Poor-Take-Flight-Millions-of-2949558.php

Comment by Formerly Known As... Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 2:03 pm
===The death of small towns seems to be more related to school consolidation that anything else…===

Consolidation and rural flight are affects of the economy, not a cause of it.

Prior to 1950, schools in rural Illinois were built and located so most children were not walking more than 1.5 miles to school. Rural roads were improved and bussing allowed schools to consolidate and save money.

Many small towns in Illinois were formed at a rail siding or a port where grain, livestock and coal were exported. As technology improved the farming and mining operations, the workforce was reduced and less services were needed from merchants in these small towns. The merchants slowly closed their shops.

In 1950, farmers could make a living on 300 acres. Each farm may have had an average of five people within it’s household. In 2014, a farmer needs 2,000 to 3,000 acres to sustain an independent living. A farm household today may have 3 people. Hence, the rural population has significantly decreased, no one is at fault.

Comment by Endangered Moderate Species Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 2:17 pm
Opening the borders to illegal immigrants is not the best answer. Many of these poor folks are opportunists who want to earn some money and return home with their earnings. I am sympathetic, but it is not a good bargain for taxpayers who end subsidizing these low wage workers who access lots of public services.

Another negative is the out of control property taxes in Illinois. It has been reported that Illinoisans pay the second highest property taxes rates in the USA.

People use to be drawn to Illinois because it was a place where everyone could find good employment. The politicians have finally killed the goose that laid the golden eggs.

Comment by Upon Further Review Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 2:17 pm
wordslinger

Thanks for the tip. Wiki lists the data source as the National Association of Counties, not the Census Bureau. When I go to their website
“http://www.naco.org/Counties/Pages/FindACounty.aspx”
to ascertain the data source, I get:
“Find A County - We are experiencing some difficulties at this time. Please check back later.”
I’d prefer Census Bureau data. But its better than nothing. Thank you.

Comment by Anyone Remember? Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 2:22 pm
@Smoggie:

“When Northwestern grads are leaving to find great jobs elsewhere, then we have a problem.”

Its already happening. Numerous studies have been conducted about increasing football attendance at Northwestern (the Wildcats seldom sell out the stadium, which seats about 47,500, unless the visiting team brings loads of fans) and one conclusion was many of their students do not remain in Chicago or Illinois after graduation.
Many see NU as a great place to study, but depart after receiving their diplomas.

Comment by Upon Further Review Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 2:25 pm
–Its already happening. Numerous studies have been conducted about increasing football attendance at Northwestern (the Wildcats seldom sell out the stadium, which seats about 47,500, unless the visiting team brings loads of fans) and one conclusion was many of their students do not remain in Chicago or Illinois after graduation.–

LOL, you can’t be serious. Wildcat football attendance as economic indicator?

For the record, NU students come from all over the world and work all all over the world, just like those from Stanford, Vandy, Duke, Cal, U of C, U of I, etc.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 2:28 pm
===the Wildcats seldom sell out the stadium===

They suck, and, unfortunately for them, they aren’t the Cubs.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 2:38 pm
===Opening the borders to illegal immigrants is not the best answer.===

Yes, which is why no one is proposing it. Reforming a broken immigration system is not synonymous (look it up) with open borders.

Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 2:41 pm
Numerous studies have been conducted about increasing football attendance at Northwestern Yup, I know those studies…. here’s an answer. Win football games. Problem solved.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 2:44 pm
NU has 8,000 undergrads. They’ll never sell out.

Way off topic, that’s increasingly becoming an issue at even huge football crazy schools and the NFL.

Alabama had games where 80% of student-reserved seats were filled. The NFL had a hard time selling out last weekends playoff games.

As big-screen HDTVs become more affordable, the best seat in the house is increasingly on the couch. All those TV timeouts are annoying at the stadium.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 2:46 pm
@Wordslinger:

Do you friends call you Sherlock or something else? Of course, Northwestern draws students from across the USA. The point that I was attempting to make was that few graduates are opting to remain in Illinois. That is not merely students returning home to rejoin their families in distant states or foreign countries, it is also graduates who put Chicago and Illinois in the “nice place to study or visit, but I wouldn’t want to live there” category.

As for your myopia, Northwestern is building a new athletic practice facility for its football team on campus and, yes, numerous studies have
have been undertaken about attendance at football games and the condition and quality of its athletic facilities. When you spend millions of dollars, studies are undertaken. Football is a revenue generating sport. LOL. you cannot be so foolish not to know that. There is about six years worth of material to review, but I doubt that you would be interested.

The folks who track these things claim that fewer Northwestern grads are opting to remain in Chicago.

Comment by Upon Further Review Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 2:47 pm
@Wordslinger:

You are wrong again. Northwestern does sell out its games occasionally and did so as recently as 2013.

It is true that Northwestern has a small student population, but the studies addressed the lack of alumni members attending games.

Comment by Upon Further Review Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 2:50 pm
As a young prof that left Chicago for greener pastures, I’ll add this insight that’s limited to Chicago’s economy.

Chicago has a great niche as the professional services epicenter of the Midwest. It’s not #1 in anything like SF is in tech or NY is for finance., but it’s a solid position to do either of those jobs. Not being #1 in anything is probably what spurs a decent amount of highly skilled workers to leave, but I don’t think that’s really a big problem for Chicago as long as it keeps that niche.

So, from a Chicago perspective, I don’t really think the state losing population matters so much as the Midwest losing population as a whole. Chicago thrives on being the lawyers, accountants, advertisers, etc. for businesses based in the Greater Midwest. As long as the Midwest still has enough work to go around, Chicago will be fine.

Comment by ILexpat Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 2:56 pm
I don’t know the reason why many NFL football teams entering the playoffs were having a hard time selling tickets - I know why the Packers were having a hard time. Historically, that has not been a problem. This year, as may be well known, the Packers lost their starting quarterback for 8 games. Playoff tickets had to be bought prior to Rodgers being cleared to play the last regular season game. Few folks believed the Packers had much chance of beating the Bears without Rodgers. For a family of 4 who had to purchase a 3 game package, they had to cough up as much as $2,000 to buy the package - for cheap seats. This money would not be refunded if the Packers didn’t make it to the playoffs - the money would be used to pay off tickets for the next season. I believe these are new rules for the NFL this season - please correct me if I am wrong. What family of modest means (that describes many Wisconsin residents) could tie up that kind of scratch for all that time when there was little chance the fans would actually be watching a game.

I can’t comment on why other teams were having a hard time selling their tickets - Packers fans are some of the most loyal and do not like to miss games. Off topic - sorry.

Comment by dupage dan Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 3:05 pm
Upon Further Review,

I couldn’t help but notice that although you talk about studies, you haven’t actually posted any.

Is there a reason we should take your word for it?

Comment by Smoggie Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 3:06 pm
-And it’s not just in agriculture. Won’t the local Huck’s need someone to open and close the gas station? Who’s going to empty the bed pans in the nursing home in Carmi or DuQuoin or in 20 years?-

Isn’t that a little stereotypical, immigrants and convenience stores ? Somehow I think we’ll always be able to find people to work those jobs.

Comment by countyline Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 3:16 pm
- Smoogie -,

To be fair to Northwestern,

Northwestern is not like DePaul or UIC or a “Chicago school” although NU Atheltics tries to sell NU as “Chicago’s Big 10 Team”.

NU tries to draw from all over the country, and all over the world, and with its student body having a national makeup, it is more difficult to keep those grads, as opposed to DePaul or UIC.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 3:18 pm
Oswego Willy,

To add to your point about how NU may be difference, I think we got a bit off track here.

My reference to Northwestern was to the point that the Chicago area is still producing a high quality work force that is attractive to employers.

A number of other schools, including University of Chicago, Loyola, and DePaul also produce high quality grads.

I could have used any of those an example. I happen to have ties to NU so it came to mind as the obvious example.

The point really was that we really don’t know who is leaving.

We do know that employers still seem to think that Chicago (broadly, the surrounding areas) is a good place to find high quality and highly educated workers. Who knows. Those employers may be mistaken.

So, we need to look at who is leaving. Is it the high quality work force? Is it people who are struggling and are willing to go to Texas to work for $8 an hour? Is it retirees who are leaving?

Until we know who is leaving, we really can’t say if the population loss is a net positive or negative for the area.

Comment by Smoggie Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 3:26 pm
–Somehow I think we’ll always be able to find people to work those jobs. –

You’re right.

The Irish dug the canals.

The Chinese built the railroads.

The Italians dug the subways.

The Africans picked the cotton.

The Mexicans picked the vegetables.

And on and on.

We always find them some place.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 3:27 pm
===When Northwestern grads are leaving to find great jobs elsewhere, then we have a problem.===

And …

===So, we need to look at who is leaving. Is it the high quality work force? Is it people who are struggling and are willing to go to Texas to work for $8 an hour? Is it retirees who are leaving?

Until we know who is leaving, we really can’t say if the population loss is a net positive or negative for the area.===

If that is the case, then you NU “case study” is moot until we know.

Just saying.

By the way, welcome.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 3:38 pm
@wordslinger 1:57, N.Dakota also had a couple of other unique things. One was a State Bank. It existed from before the fed existed and was grandfathered in. It somehow can get and loan money to the state a very low rates, vs. Illinois using the pension systems as an alternative source of loans at very high rates. Another thing they always get back way more from the federal gov’t then is paid in. They were in good shape before the oil boom.

Now, the State government of N.Dakota is awash with money, but as you pointed out, they didn’t actually have much to do with it.

Comment by DuPage Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 3:45 pm
Word - isn’t it funny how we in the rural midwest either managed without those things, or did them without exploiting cheap immigrant labor.

Comment by countyline Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 3:52 pm
Endangered, did you copy that out of a 40 year old Encyclopedia Britannica ? None of your statements are incorrect, but our entire country was a different place prior to 1950, not just rural America. As for downstate, there were many areas that were still waiting for electrification at that time, and the consolidation you are referring to is the consolidation of hundreds of tiny one-room school houses into what we now know as CUSD’s.

The consolidation I am referring to is being caused by our lousy school funding formula that places too much reliance on property taxes. Smaller schools simply run out of money and are forced to consolidate with a neighboring district - sometimes the new district can keep a presence in both towns, sometimes its not economically viable. In the latter case, because so much of small town life revolves around the school, the town that loses its school, loses its soul. Drive through any small town and you see the police cars sporting the school colors, and the school mascot painted on the water tower.

In 1950, farmers could make a living on 300 acres because they had no choice, the high-tech machinery and genetically modified crops we have today simply weren’t available. I can remember when the 100 bushels per acre barriers was broken when I was growing up, today its a bad year if they get less that 200. A family farming 3000 acres isn’t just getting by, they are living very, very well.

Comment by countyline Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 3:54 pm
===isn’t it funny how we in the rural midwest either managed without those things, or did them without exploiting cheap immigrant labor.===

countyline, you’re kidding right? Why do you think you can find great Italian food in Carlinville? Italian coal minors started digging near Wilmington and followed the seam to Morris, Ottawa, and south to Macoupin County. That’s why.

Who do you think dug the IM and Hennepin canals? Who laid the Illinois Central tracks?

The rise of the United States as a global industrial superpower was largely the result of exploiting cheap immigrant labor.

Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 4:01 pm
Countyline, you are trippy.

Where do you think the Midwestern farmers came from? Did they spring from the earth? My God, dude, didn’t they cover that Plymouth Rock story when you went to school?

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 4:01 pm
Countyline, the state’s salt works in southern Illinois used slave labor. The enterprise produced a third of state revenues. Also, French settlers were allowed to keep their slaves. And there was an open slave market in deep southern Illinois.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 4:04 pm
- Countyline -,

Hmm. I wonder who founded that town “Norway, IL” I keep passing on 71?

Maybe all those Non-Immigrants picked Norway out of a hat or something.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 4:04 pm
@Smoggie: Many of the reports are related to marketing and season tickets sales and projections. Good summaries can be found at the web sites, Lake the Posts or Hail to Purple. The latter has data on attendance and sell out games.

It would take to long to link up all of the materials, but some information is online for those interested in digging for it.

Comment by Upon Further Review Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 4:15 pm
Obviously reading comprehension is a problem.

-
The Irish dug the canals. (no canals downstate that I know of, at least not on a large scale)

The Chinese built the railroads. (I believe they built the western leg of the ICR, Union Pacific, I believe)

The Italians dug the subways. (No subways anythere near here…)

The Africans picked the cotton. (not many slaves either…and the deep south may as well be Kentucky)

The Mexicans picked the vegetables. (Don’t see many of those driving big green tractors…)

We are all descended immigrants at some point in the family tree.

Comment by countyline Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 4:16 pm
===The Mexicans picked the vegetables. (Don’t see many of those driving big green tractors…)===

Ever been to Seneca?

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 4:19 pm
Are you guys so hung up on political correctness you can’t use a little common sense ? And Word, I believe those farmers built what they have using their own two hands…or did they not “build that” ?

Comment by countyline Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 4:21 pm
What’s your point, Countyline?

The Millers, Johnsons, and O’Briens who busted the prairie weren’t Saux or Fox. Those who “did the job” were immigrants.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 4:22 pm
Seneca ? May as well be a Chicago suburb….

Comment by countyline Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 4:23 pm
- countyline -,

Are you so hung up on making sure there is no trace of immigration, or of any race, that you completely ignore the diversity that helped create this ENTIRE state, or of the slave history in Illinois?

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 4:23 pm
Yes they were, immigrants who were busting their own backside for their own benefit, making a life for themselves and their families for generations. I live among these people who have been farming for generations. You ?

Comment by countyline Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 4:27 pm
- countyline -,

I am from Illinois, so of course I did.

Pretty silly question, but I will leave it up to you to Post …

“Some of my best friends are ….”

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 4:29 pm
–Yes they were, immigrants who were busting their own backside for their own benefit, making a life for themselves and their families for generations.–

Yeah, that’s the immigrant story in the United States. What’s your point, exactly?

Are you a subsistence farmer or does your end-product go to, say, other people? Where did they come from. How do you get your product to market? Donkey?

I’m first-generation, by the way.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 4:31 pm
Hardly, OW, my wife is an immigrant, when did I ever state that I oppose immigration or deny that immigrants shaped our history ?

Comment by countyline Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 4:33 pm
===when did I ever state that I oppose immigration or deny that immigrants shaped our history?===

You came pretty close at 1:23pm:

“Immigrants play little to no role in farming in downstate Illinois - meatpacking at places like the Cargill plant in Beardstown maybe, but not farming in general.”

While you didn’t say you opposed immigration, you certainly glossed over a lot of history. I’ll assume you meant Mexican immigrants, but even then you’d be wrong.

As you noted, your ancestors came here from somewhere else, they didn’t spring from the fertile soil of the prairie all by themselves.

Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 4:45 pm
I’m surprised no one on here mentioned the fact that our economy is still depressed and that no one can afford to have children at this time. Evidence of this echoes during the Great Depression.

Comment by CommoNooB Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 4:51 pm
===Hardly, OW, my wife is an immigrant,===

“My wife is … so I can say …”

- 47th Ward - got it.

===While you didn’t say you opposed immigration, you certainly glossed over a lot of history. I’ll assume you meant Mexican immigrants, but even then you’d be wrong.===

Well said.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 5:00 pm
According to census data the population of Illinois increased from 11.43 million in 2000 to estimated 12.87 million in 2012.

Of that 1.4 million increase 1.18 million were Hispanics (904 thousand in 2000 to 2.098 million in 2012). The Asian population also increased but again, the total numbers were overwhelmingly Hispanic. Whites actually declined in number.

I for one, do not think this large increase in Hispanic population will make for a more economically viable state in the next few decades to come Except perhaps for those who want cheaper labor be it for personal or business reasons.

Just having more numbers does not always equate to overall economic vitality. If it did Bangladesh would be a great place.

Of course, this view is not very PC. But I will let the readers think about it and make up your own mind.

Comment by Federalist Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 5:01 pm
Bottom line: Illinois is in decline. Our state once commanded thirty electoral votes or so. Now are we down to twenty or nineteen? This does not bode well for the future.

We cannot change the weather, but the bad governance has to go.

Comment by Upon Further Review Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 5:32 pm
What do electoral votes have to do with “bad governance?”

It’s amazing the things people attribute to state government. Global economic trends. Historic demographic changes. Unreal.

Some of the greatest economic and population growth in Illinois history occurred in the most corrupt times.

I doubt Illinois’ population grew by 18% in the 1920s because of the great goo-goo leadership of Len Small and Bill Thompson.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 5:45 pm
We are having fewer babies. We are in our third generation of effective birth control. How many who comment here have four or more children?

Comment by Enemy of the State Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 5:46 pm
Want to open the flood gates? Tax pensions…..

Comment by What is to be done? Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 6:17 pm
The public pension problems have really made national headlines. Also, Governor Quinn’s 67% tax increase didn’t help. Also, a Rich mentioned recently: there’s a recent study that claims many corporations only want to be in right to work states. Illinois is in competition with Texas, Florida, and North Carolina among other places for jobs- so it’s very , very difficult.

Comment by Steve Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 6:23 pm
I haven’t seen the 7-1-13 analysis but studied the 7-1-12 report quite a bit for my job. The only real population growth in Illinois is in the Latino community, both through immigration (which has slowed) but mostly through births. The black population has very little growth and the white population is decreasing rapidly. The white decline is mostly due to deaths but also due to net migration out of the state (whether to Florida or Texas I don’t know). The white population is much, much older than other population groups so a higher death rate is to be expected.

There has been a high percentage increase for people categorized as Asian, including both east Asian and those from the Indian subcontinent, but in absolute numbers they still represent a fairly small group in Illinois.

The population growth rates in Ohio and other midwest states reflect the same demographic dynamics. Older white people are dying off and younger Latino people are taking their place.

These demographic trends affect states controlled by Democrats as well as Republicans, and have little to do with tax policy or wages, since those vary quite a bit from state to state.

If wage or tax policies are changed in Illinois it will have little impact on these broad demographic trends. Illinois (thank goodness) will never be Texas. Illinois will continue with little population growth and slowly but surely become a “minority majority” state. Look at the school enrollment data from earlier this year. That will be the composition of the workforce and the legislature 25 years from now.

Comment by DuPage Dave Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 8:25 pm
Enemy, AA has four kids. What’s your point?

Comment by Arthur Andersen Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 9:41 pm
@Wordslinger:

Electoral votes relate to a state’s political influence and population. Illinois used to be a destination state where people interested in a better life and greater opportunities chose to relocate to. I hold no brief for Len Small, but Illinois enjoyed growth and prosperity during the 1920s. It might interest you to know that several recent historical works have opined that Big Bill was far from the worst mayor in Chicago history (a popular canard akin to the New Dealers who claimed the Coolidge and the GOP were to blame for the Great Depression). Within a generation or two, it will be a close contest to assign the worst mayor position to Kelly or R. M. Daley.

Comment by Upon Further Review Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 11:46 pm
In simple English, people are voting with their feet by leaving Madiganistan.

Comment by Upon Further Review Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 11:47 pm
UFC, I wouldn’t have guessed you were a John Kass fan, lol.

You hold some odd ideas on how state government influences both economic and population growth.

I don’t think California, Texas and Florida surpassed Illinois in population and electoral votes in the 20th Century because of state government. Might have been some other factors in play.

As it is, Illinois is the fifth largest state and will likely remain so for some time. By your logic, those other 45 must be real hell-holes.

Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Jan 9, 14 @ 12:02 am
Perspective?

Indiana? Just over half of Illinois’ population.

Wisconsin, Missouri, Minnesota. Kentucky, Iowa …

All below half of Illinois’ population.

Pennsylvania and Ohio, 6th and 7th, in population are close, but not charging ahead to take the 5th spot.

After Pennsylvania and Ohio? Georgia, which is just over 3/4 of Illinois’ population.

So, the “Madiganistan” Kass-isms are cute and catchy, Illinois is by far the economic engine in its region, sustaining its postion as a top populated state, and having the 3rd largest city in America.

I miss the John Kass of the 1990’s. If you see him, - Upon Further Review -, ask him who took over his body, someone from Madiganistan?

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Jan 9, 14 @ 7:24 am
AA, families are smaller because people want them to be. Besides yourself, how many people have four or more children. We are not replacing ourselves. I think this used to be Zero population growth. Hard to have growth when this happens.

Comment by Enemy of the State Thursday, Jan 9, 14 @ 8:26 am
Oswego Willy has a great point about Kass’s current work, although I don’t recall a time when he had any actual talent.

Anybody who decides to write the “Elected official took nice vacation while it was cold/hot/windy/crime broke out/pipes burst etc. story should instead just write “I no longer have any ideas. I give up.” Both stories say the exact same thing.

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