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* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…
Illinois state Sen. Kirk Dillard told Chicago radio station WLS last week that Republican county chairmen ought to try and get Bill Brady and/or Dan Rutherford out of the governor’s race so he could have a clear shot at wealthy frontrunner Bruce Rauner. Dillard claims he is building strong momentum with recent endorsements, including the powerful Illinois Education Association.
But two polls taken last week showed that Dillard isn’t even winning his own DuPage County-based state Senate district that he has represented for more than twenty years.
A Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll taken February 20th had Rauner leading in Dillard’s 24th state Senate District with 36 percent. Dillard placed a distant second with 30 percent. Brady polled 10 percent and Rutherford was at 2 percent. Another 22 percent were undecided. The poll of 614 likely Republican voters had a margin of error of ±3.95 percent. Twelve percent of the calling universe was cell phones.
I didn’t commission the poll to be a jerk, but because somebody slipped me results of a Strive Strategies tracking poll taken Tuesday, February 18th which had Rauner at 33 percent and Dillard at 26 percent in Dillard’s own district. The margins between the two men are almost exactly the same in both polls, so this is pretty solid evidence that Dillard is, indeed, losing his own Senate district, which he has represented since 1993.
What the heck is going on? Well, millions of dollars in campaign ads on Chicago TV by Rauner and pretty much nothing by Dillard is the simplest answer.
Rauner has not only dumped millions of his own money into his campaign, he has successfully vacuumed up pretty much all the available traditional Republican money out there. Campaign cash that Dillard, Brady or Rutherford would have normally been expected to tap has been Hoovered up by Rauner instead.
According to the Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll, Dillard is ahead of Rauner among women in his district 33-26, but he trails badly among men, 46-27. Rauner also leads among seniors 65 and over (perhaps the most important GOP demographic) 41-25.
Sen. Dillard said recently that the multitude of DuPage County congressional, legislative and local Republican primary races, plus county auditor Bob Grogan’s state treasurer bid, would gin up local turnout and help him defeat Rauner. But if he ain’t winning his own district, it’s tough to see how Dillard’s theory will come to fruition in the rest of the county.
So, what about that IEA endorsement? Well, as of last week the teachers’ union had sent a mailer to their members touting Dillard and had given him $50,000 cash. Dillard has such a high overhead cost, though, that fifty grand won’t do much except keep the lights on his office. Dillard received about $250K from the Operating Engineers union late last year and then spent pretty much all of it on overhead.
And even if the IEA puts more cash into Dillard and it all goes on TV, Bruce Rauner is spending a fortune on television ads and the latest We Ask America statewide tracking poll shows him leveling off, but still with a huge lead over the entire pack.
The poll of 1,323 likely Republican primary voters was taken February 18th and shows Rauner with 35 percent, to 14 percent for Bill Brady, 13 percent for Dillard and 8 percent for Dan Rutherford - which is confirmation of the Chicago Tribune’s recent poll results that showed Rutherford’s numbers are collapsing in the wake of his ongoing scandal. Rutherford was at 17 percent in a We Ask America poll taken February 3rd, which was nine points above where he is in the latest round.
The new TV ads being aimed at Rauner by the labor unions are also having an impact. The ads have whacked Rauner for associations with a corrupt bribery expert, and for alleged abuse at some nursing homes his company used to own.
The unions have spent about $2 million and Rauner has seemed to plateau since those attack ads began airing. He was at 37 percent on February 2nd and 39 percent on February 13th, then down four points less than a week later to 35.
But even if Rauner has peaked, the other three are a very long way from catching up, and so far none of them have the money to do so, and time is not on their side.
Subscribers have full crosstabs.
Discuss.
*** UPDATE *** Brady’s campaign responds…
BRADY SAYS POLL NUMBERS SHOW RAUNER-BRADY TWO-WAY RACE
Senator Bill Brady, Republican candidate for Governor, say recent poll results show that the Republican primary for Governor is now a two-way race between himself and businessman Bruce Rauner.
“Last week, Senator Dillard called on Republican officials to push Treasurer Rutherford and myself out of the race for him. He’s confused. This is a race between me and Mr. Rauner, not Mr. Rauner and Senator Dillard,” Brady said.
The Chicago Tribune poll earlier this month showed Senator Dillard in last place. In addition, a We Ask America/Capitol Fax poll last week showed him losing in his own Senate district.
“In order to win, a Republican candidate for Governor must win the base of the Republican Party. We have the base. Senator Dillard helped elect Barack Obama president with his commercial, saying he would serve the country well. That’s a non-starter for Republican primary voters. Mr. Rauner’s close relationship with Chicago’s Mayor Rahm Emanuel poses the same problem for him,” Brady said.
“I am the one reliable Republican and consistent conservative who has been tested and who has earned the trust of nearly 1.8 million voters throughout Illinois. I am the most electable candidate and, as other polling has shown, the one who can best defeat Governor Quinn in November.”
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 10:15 am
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this isn’t good news for Dillard, but it may reflect his strategy to take a right turn to gain more traction with the base downstate for the primary. If that works (although it seems unlikely), then Republicans in his district will probably be back on board for the general.
Comment by Soccermom Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 10:25 am
36% to 30% on a +/- 4% doesn’t sound too distant, especially, when the leader is starting to tank. It really sound pretty encouraging for a guy who hasn’t spent a dime against a guy who spent millions
Comment by Bobo Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 10:25 am
Money talks.
Even in your own backyard.
That teachers union endorsement could move the needle a bit if they put some money behind him, but barring a massive game-changer we’re basically staggering to the finish line at this point.
Comment by Formerly Known As... Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 10:27 am
===36% to 30% on a +/- 4% doesn’t sound too distant===
In his own district??? Gimme a break. We’ve got enough Raunerbots around here without new Dillardbots.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 10:27 am
Loss your base, lose your face…
I miss the 1990s Dillard. So does Dillard’s district it appears.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 10:29 am
Since Rauner is running away with it and not facing any significant opposition, why not let a Federal Judge declare him to be the Republican nominee and not wait for the primary election to be conducted? Only kidding…
Comment by Upon Further Review Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 10:32 am
Every two years the Illinois GOP loses more than it wins and has had this record for over a decade. Occupying “prestigious” leadership roles in such a party doesn’t mean squat. Rauner is not yet a loser, while the other guys are - repeatedly.
When your team keeps losing, you can’t blame the crowd for going to the game to see the halftime show filled with cheerleaders, or just not coming to the games to watch you lose.
Dillard, Rutherford and Brady still think being captains of a political Titanic entitles them to a statewide candidacy.
The Illinois GOP has been sold as salvage and Rauner is the buyer with the intention of recycling the party into something that voters will find more appealing than the incompetent Quinn.
So Mr. Dillard - you sunk ship’s been bought. Rauner is turning it into a coral reef.
Comment by VanillaMan Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 10:34 am
I agree with Bobo on this one: 30% is NOT a distant second to 36%. It isn’t encouraging news, being his own district, but it isn’t a distant second. Just saying. Further - there are nuances to “his” district, which also happens to be the MOST Republican district and one of the wealthiest districts in Illinois - both fertile ground for a Rauner candidacy.
Comment by veritas Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 10:35 am
Dillard’s only chance is to have Rutherford drop out, and convince Rutherford to help him beat Rauner by giving Dillard his $1,000,000 warchest (if it is still that large).
Fat chance of all that happening
Comment by Robert the Bruce Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 10:38 am
Well, I for one would point to the ground game.
It’s not like Dillard has lost, like his home county by 200 of less votes before after counting on his bad to pull out a win…
Right?
My bad.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 10:40 am
–Rauner has not only dumped millions of his own money into his campaign, he has successfully vacuumed up pretty much all the available traditional Republican money out there. Campaign cash that Dillard, Brady or Rutherford would have normally been expected to tap has been Hoovered up by Rauner instead.–
That’s the ballgame, to date. The Other 3 do not have the resources to mount credible statewide campaigns.
Comment by wordslinger Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 10:40 am
To be losing in your own district is the like band playing you out for the night. Game over. Rauner is far too much capital and such a large nameID to derail at that this point. I guess touting Jim Edgar’s name isn’t enough to prop you as the GOP candidate, huh?
Comment by Goonhammer Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 10:40 am
Dillard is peaking at just the right time, and I think if he continues he can win. It seems that more and more Republicans in the state are turning to him as the last best hope. We should not forget Rich that in the Feb. 18th poll the only candidate who was up at all was Kirk.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 10:48 am
And for crying out loud - why do these losers still think their primary voters should just suck it up and give them ANOTHER chance? They expect GOP voters to keep sending the losers into battle for another Pickett’s charge?
This is ridiculous.
Seeing Rauner winning in these polls simply confirms that voters are sick of losers who lose to losers. Grow up guys! None of you deserve the patience necessary of the GOP primary voters.
Worse of all - Brady! How stupid do you think voters are? YOU LOST TO QUINN in a GOP landslide. And MR. Dillard - you lost to Brady!
You guys had your chance.
No more losers!
Comment by VanillaMan Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 10:50 am
The union endorsement and money is too little, too late. Dillard can’t sell himself without advertising, though Rauner may be losing ground with the negative ads. This race is over.
What about the future? Will future candidates representing the Republican Party in Illinois become the sole province of the 1% in this state?
Comment by Wensicia Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 10:55 am
Momentum is turning toward Dillard, but not fast enough unless Brady drops out and endorses him (fat chance). Rutherford is not even in play.
Comment by downstate hack Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 11:03 am
This race is far from over. We are about to see more money get spent in the last month than we have seen in nearly the entire race. This is the time when the voters are paying attention. Just as Rauner gets his name id up, people are seeing negative ads against him. His negatives will soar.
Dillard was the only candidate up in the Feb 18th poll and that is without a single dime on TV. If the unions go up with TV ads for him, the race changes. After all, Rauner dropped by about 5 points with only a few days of negative TV against him. And it was a pretty poor ad at that.
Dillard can still win this, but it will take the anti-Rauner forces deciding that going negative isn’t enough. They need to simultaneously promote Dillard at the same time. And if the unions turn out their voters, we could be looking at 25-50k voters that nobody expected to be in the race.
Comment by DS Politico Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 11:11 am
Did anyone advice these veteran losers that if they wanted another crack at the nomination they needed to demonstrate that they could sell themselves so that their defeat-stink wouldn’t offend voters?
The GOP nomination could have been one of the GOP leaders to take if they were really interested enough to campaign for it. Dillard, Brady and Rutherford treated this election like a chore that someone had to be forced to do.
It wasn’t until Rauner started buying the nomination that it seems these three veteran losers decided they really did want the nomination and - BY GOLLY! - they’re going to actually campaign and get some dough.
You snooze - you lose, guys.
The three of you acted like the GOP gubernatorial nomination wasn’t worth working for, so stop bashing the guy buying it from you for peanuts. The GOP should be happy it’s gubernatorial nomination is worth what Rauner is paying for it.
Comment by VanillaMan Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 11:11 am
If Dillard can get it to single digits before the primary he has a chance because he has a better GOTV ground game but if not, it’s over.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 11:16 am
Anonymous 11:16am. If he had a ground game, he wouldn’t be losing his own district. He doesn’t. He is. I haven’t seen the cross tabs of the polls, but I’m willing to bet he may only be winning one town in those polls. His. And I bet it’s not a landslide.
Comment by A guy... Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 11:23 am
Keep in mind that much of the district is new to Senator Dillard as a result of redistricting. To be fair… he has not represented this district for 20 years.
Comment by south of mason dixon Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 11:37 am
south, he scored 62 percent in a hotly contested primary two years ago in his district. He mailed, robocalled and worked the heck out of that district.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 11:40 am
Rauner will end up spending more than 50K to point out that Dillard has gotten 50K from the IEA
Comment by OneMan Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 11:41 am
OneMan, you may be right. But I would bet that he gets more than 50k.
Comment by DS Politico Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 11:43 am
To the Post,
I am sure “stuff” like this is keeping Hodas and - Cincinnatus - up a night, and I am quite sure Hodas and Crew know that the cake they need to bake must be one won in the precincts and up to and on Election Day. That said, the extremely late education, through teachers, ironically, needs to produce “pluses”, not just in one single state senate district, but in all 59 districts, with targeted RAW votes leading to a winning number, in a 4-way race.
That is all I see here. The home district is a symptom of a problem being replicated 58 more times; “what are the votes needed in this district to get the other 58 together to cross the finish line. That’s it.
All things being equal, history is not too kind to a Dillard Crew and GOTV. Also, I see nothing from the other 3 outside Dillard doing anything that needs to be done to CONTROL their own GOTV.
If Hodas’ Crew can get all this “stuff” organized to be a real shot at a Ground Game, then they will have my attention. The poll of the district is a symptom of the big problem of all 59, not just the one district.
Keep plugging, Dillard Crew.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 11:51 am
Three weeks is an eternity in politics. , Rutherford and Rauner are trending down and Dillard is trending up. Remember Brady vs Quinn - Brady was up until the REAL VOTES were counted. While fun for pundits, POLLS DON’T VOTE!
Comment by Reformed Public Servant Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 11:52 am
It’s a bit unfair to blame Dillard and Brady for being losers. With respect to the Republicans on the blog, the current Republican primary voters are losers. At least, they believe in issues that are losers. Anti-gay marriage. Anti-union. Climate change denial. Creationism in schools. All Republican primary voters might not agree with these, but there’s enough to corrupt the party and corrupt the politicians.
It’s 2014 now and I’m 23. I grew up with video games, cellphones, and the internet becoming commonplace. The first time I talked to someone who wasn’t from America was online at 11. The first time someone told me they were gay was when I was 13. Climate change made sense because there was a high school teacher explaining the science and showing examples. We got hit with a massive recession when we came of age due to corporate greed. What happens when people of my age group start voting? Youth don’t vote as much, but in 4 or 8 more years when we start having children? The issues that corrupt the Republican party now will push them towards the Democratic party.
The Republicans don’t have any good candidates because smart Republican politicians can’t bring the Republican voters forward right now. So instead, you get losers elected by losers.
Comment by Timmeh Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 12:30 pm
I can’t seem to get all steamed up for Dillard.
Comment by Mokenavince Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 12:50 pm
Ironic comments coming from Brady…He lost the McClean County (his home county)straw poll on Feb 9. Dillard 34%, Rutherford 27%, Brady 19%, Rauner 19%.
Comment by southerner Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 1:11 pm
===straw poll===
Straw polls are not polls and are easily manipulated. But it’s still a decent point.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 1:22 pm
Old rivalries might be in play. Brady lost to Quinn partly because a lot of Republican voters in DuPage county stayed home. They didn’t like his “dirty” campaign against Dillard in that primary. Brady knows he can’t win but might stay in just to be sure Dillard loses.
Comment by DuPage Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 1:31 pm
–They didn’t like his “dirty” campaign against Dillard in that primary.–
What was that?
Comment by wordslinger Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 1:33 pm
Brady and Dillard obviously believe Rutherford will be a non-factor and are trying to muscle each other out for the chance to be the anti-Rauner.
I don’t see it happening. It’s not like contributors can put the squeeze to them. Neither one of them has significant contributors, anyway.
Both Brady and Dillard will stay in and hope lightning strikes against Rauner. What do they have to lose at this point?
Comment by wordslinger Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 1:37 pm
“No I’m the real conservative…”
“No, he’s not, I’m the real conservative.”
“No, No, folks…”
And so it goes. They’ll fight to be the real conservative, dividing the votes, while Rauner plays it safe and skates to a win.
Comment by In the Middle Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 1:47 pm
“I am the one reliable Republican and consistent conservative who has been tested and who has earned the trust of nearly 1.8 million voters throughout Illinois. I am the most electable candidate and, as other polling has shown, the one who can best defeat Governor Quinn in November.”
One has to give it to Brady for audacity. I mean that is the most ridiculous statement I have read in a long time. I mean, I would almost expect one of the other candidates to say it to prove he is unelectable.
Comment by Phineas J. Whoopee Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 2:05 pm
What everyone seems to forget in re this election is that the GOP primary is open to all - not just certifiable Republicans. Heck - if it was only for certifiable Republicans, Rauner couldn’t even run!!
Comment by veritas Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 2:06 pm
- VanillaMan - Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 10:50 am:
YES!! I couldn’t agree more. Why should primary voters advance confirmed losers? WHY??? ***Crickets
Comment by MissSmartyPants Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 2:13 pm
By this time tomorrow, Rutherford will be asking Dillard and Brady to get out of the race. By Thursday, Rauner will agree with all three of them.
Comment by A guy... Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 2:18 pm
Just got a robo call from Dilly Bar. It was DLard himself talking about, “Chicago Democrats…blah blah blah…Under Jim Edgar I…blah blah blah…”
I want that 30 seconds of my life back!
Comment by MissSmartyPants Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 2:21 pm
- A Guy… -,
lol, yes! “By sundown tomorrow…”, the Dillard phrase that pays; recount, withdraw, polling…
When Dillard in March 2010 went, “By sundown tomorrow…”, the sun set in the campaign.
Dillard Crew v. Brady Crew… versus the 800 lb gorilla they both ignored and ignored.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 2:23 pm
Brady must be in a dream world if he thinks he will have the same downstate support as the last time. I’ve voted for him twice but not this time after he supported the theft of public pensions. He just has no path to the nomination.
Comment by Bocephus Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 2:25 pm
Saw quite a few Dillard-Tracy signs in my neighborhood over the weekend. I guess they’re saving the D-Lard signs for downstate, which is a shame because I’d love to have on of those for my colleciton.
As you might imagine, the signs were on vacant storefronts and in median planter boxes. They’ll be gone soon, but it’s nice to know somebody ip here likes Dillard. Of course, it’s also possible they just like Jil Tracy…
Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 2:48 pm
=== I guess they’re saving the D-Lard signs ===
Those may have disappeared.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 2:50 pm
Dillard’s district is tired of him.
I’m guessing a similar poll would show Brady losing his Central Illinois district to Rauner. Same reason: Brady’s district is tired of him.
Comment by Misterwhipple Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 3:01 pm
Van-man has hit the the nail squarely on the head.
Comment by Living in Machiaville Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 3:04 pm
- Misterwhipple -,
So just ignore the millions spent, and the districts are “tired” of them?
Yeah, um, ok. The relentless TV is not involved?
Great analysis except for the fact of being outspent by millions…
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 3:05 pm
To settle this, Dillard, Rutherford, and Brady need to go into the thunderdome so that whoever emerges can try to challenge Rauner in the primary. Three men enter—one man leaves!
Comment by SAP Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 3:05 pm
Ha. Brady-Rauner is a two way race the same way Wayne Gretzky and me combined to score 894 goals.
Comment by Johnny Q. Suburban Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 3:10 pm
@wordslinger1:33 I wish I had saved some of the Brady campaign stuff I had found hanging on my doorknob during the last primary. I have forgotten the exact details. It was the typical political distortions that I recognized as untrue. It caused me to picture the word Brady with a big X going through it and I tossed the stuff. Not saying Dillard was better, but a lot of Dillard’s supporters took it personally, were offended and didn’t have any enthusiasm to bother to go out to vote.
The trade unions then staged a last minute campaign pointing out Brady was an anti-union builder. This caused a lot of Democrats who would usually stay home to go out and vote. The combination was just enough for Brady to lose by a hair.
Comment by DuPage Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 3:16 pm
Wasn’t February 24 the date by which LaborDude predicted that Rauner would be the clear loser in the Primary?
Just sayin’
Fans are often wrong.
Me too, (just not on BR)
Comment by Walker Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 3:26 pm
Brady’s response is laughable. Dillard won McLean Lincoln Day Dinner 2-1 over Brady and Rauner. How can a guy with no money and a bill that kills puppies and kittens even think he can win in his third try for Governor.
Comment by itsericwithaK Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 3:32 pm
Brady must not read the Chicago Tribune. Last weeks front page story on him voting for bills that help family businesses is almost as bad as a bill killing puppies and kittens.
Comment by BR Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 3:33 pm
OW… The ad’s are one thing… As you have said for months… The farmer has out worked them. They didn’t think he had a chance. When they realized, it was too late. That may be due to the career politician mindset?
Comment by Walter Mitty Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 3:53 pm
- Walter Mitty -,
There is a very strong case made by too many here to mention that the “3″ got outworked, out hustled, all of those categories needed to be successful, the “3″ were “out-xed” ( - wordslinger - was first, however.)
It’s like chasing, once you are chasing, the heaviest hammer can’t be defeated, and that was the Ads.
Go to more events, more commercials. Call more donors, more Ads appear. See? Chasing never gets ahead of the heave hammer, even a sledge one. Much respect.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 3:59 pm
The Other 3 definitely got outworked by Rauner. No question. No crying. No excuses.
Bruce Rauner will be the nominee of the Illinois GOP for governor, unless some nasty lightning hits.
And Rauner is a billionaire, with a fundraising network like you’ve never seen.
Quinn better get on his bike raising money.
Comment by wordslinger Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 5:11 pm
Dillard may have bigger mo than people. Think if the unions decde to crossover.
Comment by out and about Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 5:43 pm
Nice pitch/argument by Bill (similar to things I commented about just last week, in fact!),…to try and get Kirk especially, and in effect BOTH of the other 2 besides the Baron to drop out–the problem is they won’t, and, consequently, all 3 of the Challengers will sadly fall by the Wayside….
Comment by Just The Way It Is One Monday, Feb 24, 14 @ 7:52 pm