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Quinn has real base problems

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Illinois
Polls

* We Ask America tested Gov. Pat Quinn’s job approval rating among likely Democratic primary voters…

Approve 57%
Disapprove 31%
Neutral 12%

* But then they asked this: “I will probably vote to re-elect Pat Quinn as governor no matter who is running against him in the fall.” The response…

Agree 50%
Disagree 34%
Undecided 16%

* From the pollster…

Whoa…a third of likely Democratic voters disagreed with a fairly mildly written re-elect question, and another 16% aren’t so sure.

* Look at the Downstate results for the reason why…

Agree 38%
Disagree 48%
Undecided 15%

* Back to the pollster…

Now, political families fight, but when push comes to shove they tend to stick together. Still, having a third of likely Democratic voters say they’re not sure they’ll vote for an incumbent governor is a swift kick in the patootie.

Will those miffed voters come back home in the fall? Probably. But depending on how deep voters’ walking dread goes, some may not vote at all and a handful may vote against Gov. Quinn because they’ve had it with his schtick. Still, it’s likely Quinn will face Bruce Rauner whose attacks on union bosses will make Quinn the lesser of two evils for some.

But Mr. Quinn may want to tend to a bit of family housekeeping sooner than later.

* Methodology…

Date: 3/4-5/2014 - Participants: 1,262 Likely Dem. Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.90%

posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 9:41 am

Comments

Uhhhhhh……This is totally irrelevant to this post, but is anyone else sick to their stomach about the CNN series, Chicagoland?

Rahm’s apology letter to the south and west sides over the school closings….straight propaganda. Disgusting.

Comment by Jackson and Laflin Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 9:45 am
Holy yikes!

While I’m sure that most will come around after Bruce is nominated — “Remember Wisconsin!” — there’s no way to spin this dire data into a positive for Quinn.

Yikes³!

– MrJM

Comment by MrJM Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 9:49 am
Just imagine how bad the Downstate numbers would be if c-c were still on the table.

Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 9:51 am
The good news for Quinn is that if Rauner is the person running against him, I’d imagine much more than 50% would agree with that second question.

Which is why it’s funny the GOP is going to elect Rauner. It’s the only thing that will activate the Democratic base this year. If anyone else wins the GOP primary, they’d likely win the general.

It’s similar to how the GOP has bitten off their nose to smite their face in senate elections across the country, by nominating unelectable tea-partiers instead of Dick Lugar-like Republicans (to name one nearby instance of this phenomenon). Rauner is a different candidate than some of them, but the same principle applies.

Comment by Chi Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 9:52 am
I don’t think a lot of Dems ever liked Quinn all that much.

Other politicians have a real base. There are people who want to follow them. Durbin comes to mind as somebody who could easily get people coming to his aid if they thought he was in a tough race.

For Quinn, it tends to be “well, he’s on the ballot, so we really should vote for him.” If he’s an incumbent, people will write the check. But that’s it.

I don’t recall there ever being much enthusiasm for Quinn so the results are not surprising.

Comment by Smoggie Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 9:54 am
I am not surprised at those numbers, actually surprised that they are not worse downstate. I guess November becomes the lesser of two evils. If Rauner can do better than Brady north of I-80 and dents into that north shore vote PQ could be a goner..

Comment by Not Rich Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 9:54 am
So once again it is left to vote for the lesser of two evils than the greater of two goods. But this is a Dem state, and the yellow dogs, despite mange and fleas, will carry Quinn and Company. I just wonder why those dogs don’t run away and look for a new master.

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 9:56 am
It’s very hard for me to warm up to Quinn after what he did with the back wages and other union stuff. When I met with other politicians over union issues, they told me flatly that certain things could not be done. I wish Quinn had done the same. Don’t make promises you can’t keep.

Also, all the legislators with whom I requested a meeting met with me, or their staff met with me. I emailed Sen. Durbin and Obama and received responses from both of their offices–same with my state legislators. I emailed Quinn, phoned his office, faxed stuff to his office and never received a response, not once. I know he’s busy being the state’s executive, but still, not one response from his office.

The gubernatorial election will put my nose-holding ability to the utmost test.

Comment by Grandson of Man Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 9:57 am
The great equalizer to money in politics is and always will be charisma. The “other 3 R’s″ didn’t have a shred of it.

The strange thing is that Pat Quinn, the man, does have a drop of it. It may be a Thomas Menino-esque goofability rather than pure likeability…but my thought is that his best bet is to accentuate that aspect of his personality to transition into the “little Governor that could” phase of his incumbency.

In doing this, it’s important for Pat Quinn, the campaigner, to remain relatively upbeat and positive. Let the unions and his surrogates bash Billionaire Bruce (those words should never not run-together) and let Pat be the goofy ole guy that Illinoisans are beginning to know and love. Like it or not, there are recent accomplishments to tout.

This is the only route into framing PQ as the face, and Mr. Rauner as the heel.

Comment by East Side Eddie Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 9:58 am
Terrible, negative choices all the way around. Whether to vote for Quinn (actually not vote FOR) is determined by who you’d be voting against. Do these folks have any idea how they have alienated and enraged some of their (past) supporters? Being put on earth to hurt state employees and their family’s futures ——those are warring words and actions. Can you even imagine supporting someone who wants to decrease your standard of living when you have limited/no options to remedy that for you and your family? I doubt any of us will ever be capable of forgetting that.

Comment by AnonymousOne Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 9:59 am
“But Mr. Quinn may want to tend to a bit of family housekeeping sooner than later.”

So this housekeeping you speak of is this 10s of million in no questions asked “grant money” to Democratic strongholds to get out the vote or A no layoff pledge to union bosses in exchange for a large campaign contribution.

Comment by fed up Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 10:00 am
My impression is Quinn is chomping at the bit to run against Bruce Rauner — relishing the prospect of Quinn the populist vs. Rauner the Romneyesque patrician. These polling results should give him pause. In the fall when Rauner positions himself as a pro-choice, non-idealogical problem solver, liberal leaning, upscale Dems (particularly women) who aren’t members of public employee unions, won’t be as hesitant to vote for Rauner as they were for Brady.

Comment by Frank Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 10:01 am
==Which is why it’s funny the GOP is going to elect Rauner. It’s the only thing that will activate the Democratic base this year. If anyone else wins the GOP primary, they’d likely win the general.==
Spot on. GOP once again shooting selves in the foot.

Comment by Pensioner Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 10:01 am
I will not be voting for Quinn. I will be voting against Rauner.

Comment by Aldyth Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 10:06 am
Quinn needs to make it clear to his base that Bruce Rauner has no intention of looking out for them, and although they be mad, Quinn just needs to remind them of the “Profit Margins” and “Bottom Line” results Rauner touts does not sound like someone looking out for PEOPLE.

No one can ” Out-Pat” Pat Quinn.

Rauner is the perfect elixer for Quinn to find his stride.

That is what happens when the ILGOP can be bought and sold by a greedy insider’s insider.

Got to start March 19th, and never ever stop being Pat Quinn till Election Night speeches .

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 10:11 am
The common refrain from about half of my union Democrat friends is that they aren’t going to vote against Quinn. They simply aren’t going to bother to vote. If this is true (and incidentally, these are the “younger” union rank & file), then this means that Quinn is going to really hurt the other Illinois Democrat candidates that are running for office in Illinois. Lisa Madigan’s last minute flip-flopping over whether she would run for governor is going to have some very major ramifications for all of the other incumbent Democrat elected officials in Illinois. The only thing that could implode on the Illinois GOP is if Rauner proves to be too devisive a candidate for many of the Democrats in Chicago.

Comment by Frosty-The Snowman Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 10:12 am
Mike Madigan is a genius.

Comment by Tobor Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 10:12 am
Liberal democrats often overlook the fact that many non-union Democrats are moderate or conservative and are often disgusted with career politicians. Rauner has appeal to these Democrats.

Quinn cannot erase his bumbling and incompetent history. Few will think he has suddenly gotten smarter.

Comment by Cassidy Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 10:17 am
@Chi 9:52
It is not the GOP electing Rauner. he has made no overtures to anyone organization in DuPage, that I am aware of. He is working independent of the party and the only time I saw him infront of the party, he thumbed his nose at his audience. He’s got bucks, no one else does. He has some Republicans on his staff in key positions, but he is the Non-Republican Republican of sorts.

Comment by LisleMike Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 10:17 am
He’s got a 57% approval rating among likely primary voters. That’s decent. And the “mildly phrased” question would have received a very different answer if it had asked “I will probably vote for Pat Quinn if he is running against a zillionaire granny-killer who made a fortune off the retirement savings of the union members he now demonizes.”

Comment by Soccermom Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 10:20 am
I’m wondering if Rauner will be dialing down or dialing up the anti-union rhetoric after the primary. If he dials down, will he appeal to moderates and undecideds more. If he dials up or maintains his current stance, could the unions overreact and cause a voter backlash. He has the money to buy the advice to consider these strategies.

Probably his best chance (and I still think his chances are slim) is that Quinn gets bogged down in some kind of corruption investigation, such as the anti-violence initiative monies which may have been misspent. Voter memories are short, but everybody remembers that our last two governors went to jail.

Maybe Quinn could at least find those reported $2 million in unspent monies from the initiative and restore them to the treasury. I mean, how hard could that be. If it’s unspent, it has to be sitting somewhere, right? And hey, it’s not Quinn’s money. It’s ours.

Comment by Cassandra Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 10:21 am
@Lislemike @1017
And the GOP was so happy when the SCOTUS allowed unlimited unregulated money in politics. As a result the GOP lost control of the party (nationally as well) and we have Mr Rauner who has zero chance of being elected. Moral is be careful what you wish for.

Comment by Pensioner Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 10:24 am
Word of the day is “Patootie”. The one consistent thing that seems to show is how much fluidness there is among a certain size bloc of voters. I think it helps when you provide an alternative rather than just a generic candidate. I think the head to head comparisons are the only ones you can pay attention to. We might see the longest polling season in Illinois history 10 days from now.

Comment by A guy... Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 10:24 am
After the nomination, Rauner reveals himself as a social moderate and a man with a plan to campaign successfully in Chicago. Brady nearly won without any Cook County support, and Rauner is going to ensure that he not only carries the rest of Illinois, he is going to fight for every vote in Chicagoland - where Brady was a no show.

Rauner won’t win Chicagoland - but with the abject hatred of PQ in the rest of Illinois, he will have more than enough to win outright.

It is going to take more than a $50,000,000 taxpayer funded “grant” and another AFSCME lie regarding raises and layoffs for Quinn to pull this one out.

I’m no Rauner fan, but I’m also not delusional either.

Comment by VanillaMan Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 10:24 am
Oswego Willy,

Rauner is the one candidate who would make me pull a Quinn ballot–if Quinn is not implicated in the anti-violence funding scandal.

I have more confusion than usual about voting for Quinn. On one hand I’m angry at him for his broken promises and other antics. I’m also not comfortable with the possibility of a real scandal over the anti-violence funding.

On the other hand, I credit him with some stuff like the SSM bill and MMJ, and for supporting a minimum wage increase and expanding Medicaid. I understand the pressure he was under to sign the pension bill, but still, it might be unconstitutional. I just don’t like being lied to by Quinn and demonized by Rauner.

Too bad Rauner had to resort to demonizing unions. That could contribute to him losing in November (if he wins the primary). I think Rauner may be very bought into the Koch brothers anti-tax, anti-union policy, but who knows after the primary?

Comment by Grandson of Man Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 10:24 am
It won’t hurt Quinn with his base, but any federal investigation into the IVPA issue could hurt him with independents and surely would play right into Rauner’s wheelhouse. A poll question concerning that issue related to voting for Quinn would be enlightening.

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 10:26 am
Have you seen what Rauner is going to do with Pat Quinn with the paid advertising that is soon to appear on every TV set, every newspaper, every Kindle, every mailbox and every billboard across Illinois?

Bruce has an endless supply of money that will make every Illinoisan know just how well Pat Quinn has governed throughout his career.

You guys remember what Quinn did to Brady, but what did Brady do to Quinn? Nada - zip. Brady got painted as a whack-job from Bloomington and Brady let him.

That will not happen with Rauner.
Bet on it.

Comment by VanillaMan Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 10:31 am
Would usually vote my pocketbook and hold my nose for the democrat. Not this year. Will abstain from voting for governor if it is Quinn vs. Rauner. After Quinn claimed he was put on the earth to solve the pension crisis I can’t even hold my nose and vote for him. Quinn is 65 and basically started his political career serving as an aide to Governor Dan Walker. Sure took him a long time to figure out why he was put on this earth. If he, like the rest of the voting public, had paid attention to public pension matters way back when, we would never have been in this pension crisis. Quinn’s ignorance contributed to this mess nearly as much others being blamed. Maybe he is going to claim he has been reincarnated causing him to finally see the light of day. No way, no how and no vote.

Comment by Capo Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 10:34 am
The reality is it really does not matter WHO the Gov is. Mr Madigan runs the state. Rauner would be as powerless as Quinn.

Comment by Pensioner Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 10:35 am
I’ve known Quinn professionally for over 25 years. We line up politically on many issues. However, his gross incompetence in the management of state government functions leads me not to support his re-election. Paul Vallas is the only reason I would consider Quinn’s candidacy.

Comment by Louis Howe Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 10:36 am
Rauner has a strong chance to beat Quinn for one reason: Rauner will play extremely well with the suburbanites. Suburban Cook and the collar counties have been trending Dem recently because of the GOP’s focus on the social issues. I fully expect Rauner to reverse that.

Comment by Johnny Q. Suburban Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 10:37 am
VM -
Great post. One unknown is the term limit effort by Rauner. If it gets on the ballot, it becomes a pretty sword for Rauner.

Comment by Downstate Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 10:38 am
This post has a Rauner number of 2….

Regardless of how you feel about any of the GOP candidates, this is not a good number to be at for Quinn. He may truly have to run as the Governor Of Cook County

Comment by OneMan Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 10:42 am
Though I am curious to see if some third party Dem affiliated group attacks Rauner downstate for his position on abortion. This fall could get very very ugly.

Comment by Johnny Q. Suburban Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 10:42 am
I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I wonder how many downstate counties Quinn’s challenger in the primary, Tio Hardiman, will actually win a few days from now? Not because of Tio, but because the downstate Dem voter does not or will not vote for Quinn. Wow!

Comment by Seeing is Believing Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 10:49 am
With a significant portion of each base unhappy with their nominee, the general election will come down to a question of whether more people vote against Quinn or against Rauner.

For that reason, the winning play to defeat Rauner will be to convince Republicans that they don’t have a candidate in the election, i.e. while the Quinn campaign makes a populist attack from the left, PACs make a RINO/Rahm attack from the right.

To come out ahead on election day, Quinn needs to have conservative Illinois Republicans saying, “Both these guys make me sick.” And I think that Rauner has the baggage to get that done.

– MrJM

Comment by MrJM Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 10:49 am
I don’t get the argument that Rauner is unelectable in November. He has plenty of negatives to exploit, but he’ll be able to give as good as he gets.

And he will run like crazy to the center after March 18. He’ll keep up the “bad union boss” stuff, but will reveal a soft and fuzzy side on social issues and kids, kids, kids, all the time.

I’ve been surprised in that he seems to have gotten a complete pass from anti-abortion groups. They usually make a lot of noise.

Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 10:50 am
Word, word.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 10:51 am
“I don’t get the argument that Rauner is unelectable in November.”

It’s graveyard whistling.

– MrJM

Comment by MrJM Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 11:03 am
I’m another ‘likely’ D primary voter who is in the disapprove/disagree camp. I can *conceive* of an opponent that would cause me to vote for PQ, but none of the 4 Rs running do that. But, I’ll pull the lever for someone other than PQ or the R nominee, so maybe I’m just a crank.

Comment by Chris Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 11:04 am
Rauner seems like a breath of fresh air when compared to Quinn, Dillard, Brady and Rutherford.

He speaks well and seems more competent then the rest of the field.
The other 4 guys look like old news, there collective ideas are pretty much old ideas
with an old spin.

Quinn should have lost to a good Republican in the last election.

Comment by Mokenavince Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 11:10 am
Acknowledging folks don’t generally vote on the basis of the number 2 spot, and despite my own mixed feelings, in a close election, the Vallas choice may turn out to be a wise one. His serious–almost wonky–reputation on budget matters and appeal to suburban voters (as I recall, he did quite well against Blagojevich in suburban Cook and Lake and Dupage) may be just the ticket against Rauner. I bet the male/female voting will be even more disparate than usualand get Quinn re-elected.

Comment by corvax Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 11:22 am
If it comes down to Quinn or rauner….Im not voting for the mightyless Quinn or the guy who is trying to buy the office….will be voting for reps and senators that voted NO on the pension reform crap!!!!

Comment by concern1 Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 11:23 am
If it is Rauner, he is going to have a lot of time and money to start defining Quinn…

I also think Rev. Meeks, if he comes out squarely behind Rauner could cause some Cook County problems for Quinn as well.

Comment by OneMan Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 11:32 am
===I’ve been surprised in that he seems to have gotten a complete pass from anti-abortion groups. They usually make a lot of noise.===

Me too. Very surprising. There are a significant group of dedicated pro-lifers in the GOP primary. My guess is a lot of them are undecided and will break late, much like the late surge in 2010.

It looks like they’ll also split the vote, breaking for Dillard and Brady both instead of lining up behind one of them.

So if Rauner wins as expected, will the pro-life activists stay home in November? Will they try to run a 3rd party? Will they hold their nose and vote for pro-abortion Rauner and his Emily’s List bank-rolling wife? Stay tuned.

As for Quinn, as bad as these numbers are, everything will be reset after Rauner wins the nomination. I wouldn’t read much into this.

Comment by 47th Ward Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 11:32 am
I’m wondering if Rauner might have some unacknowledged Democratic support in Chicago. After all, he has been involved in civic affairs in Chicago for a number of years and presumably has donated to a number of good causes. Now these Rauner Democrats might not admit it to pollsters over the phone, but when they get to the voting booth they could split their ballots and give Rauner a chance, especially given his lackluster opposition.

Comment by Cassandra Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 12:03 pm
=== After Quinn claimed he was put on the earth to solve the pension crisis I can’t even hold my nose and vote for him. ===

Yeah, that was ridiculous. Especially seeing as how his biggest contribution to “solving” the pension crisis was getting out of the way.

We are likely to see the same thing with this year’s budget.

Negotiations, committee hearings and discussions are already taking place. Thousands of individuals and stakeholder organizations are working on this process as we speak.

A few weeks from now, after these other parties have invested a fair bit of time in heavy lifting towards their common goal of a 2015 budget, the Governor will show up and propose a 5 year budget plan geared towards his re-election.

He will follow that with many speeches about how great his random budget is - especially compared to the budget being worked towards by all those other parties participating in the process and actually dealing in reality.

Delaying the budget speech a week or two would not have been a big deal. Delaying it over a month hinders actual progress towards a budget, especially when everyone else starts working on it without knowing exactly what you propose on some very important budget items.

Dysfunctional.

Comment by Formerly Known As... Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 12:09 pm
Even if Rauner wins as Governor, He still has to deal with the General Assembly and MJM. I just love the ads saying I will do this…. I will do that. Bruce isn’t going to get anything with MJM and JC.

Comment by Union Man Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 12:12 pm
If it ends up being Rauner vs. Quinn, what are the chances of a 3rd party candidate, and who could that be?

Comment by Marty Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 12:15 pm
===Bruce isn’t going to get anything with MJM and JC.===
Uh, yes he will. More than either of the 2 get done now.

Comment by A guy... Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 12:42 pm
Voters cannot vote “against” a candidate by voting for someone else. They can only vote “for” someone, or not vote. I’ve never seen a ballot that allows you to record a rationale for a vote. So what’s the point of declaring to be voting “against” a candidate?

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 12:43 pm
@Wordslinger -

I wouldn’t bet on Rauner keeping up the anti-union schtick after March 18.

I’d bet he pivots almost completely to taxes to keep conservatives engaged…I don’t think the “union bosses” line carries much water with independents.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 12:45 pm
=== ===Bruce isn’t going to get anything with MJM and JC.===
Uh, yes he will. More than either of the 2 get done now.===

You both are right, you both are wrong.

No one knows for sure, that’s the whole point of the unknown with Rauner and the known with Quinn.

Could be shutdowns, could be compromises.

Rauner’s rhetoric points to the former, but nothing in act points to certainty.

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 12:47 pm
=== Bruce isn’t going to get anything with MJM and JC. ===

I am not so certain about that any longer.

If you listen closely, he criticizes politicians, Springfield and Chicago as a whole. He criticizes Pat Quinn by name. But he never really criticizes or attacks Mike Madigan or Rahm Emanuel by name.

With the new reports that he has held a number of private and “productive” meetings with Madigan - and that a Madigan spokesman only “THINKS” they have not met or spoken since Rauner began running for governor - he may be craftier than the persona he is portraying in the primary. Rauner obviously realizes he has to get elected, but also has to work with Madigan once there.

=== The spokesman said he didn’t THINK the two men have met since Mr. Rauner formally announced his campaign for governor last June. ===

The media might want lock down that “think” by the spokesman and get a solid “yes” or “no” now that he has had time to fully check with the boss. Carol Marin tried but Rauner only confirmed they had met in the past. He did not actually address the last time they met or whether he and Madigan have met or spoken since he began running.

Comment by Formerly Known As... Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 12:47 pm
at this juncture I’m more concerned about the house GOP election leadership challenges, and the replacement outcome add to that the impact some possible loses will have on the complexion of that caucus.. the Mansion I know is the head of the snake but as we all know the body drives the head..

Comment by railrat Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 12:52 pm
===I am not so certain about that any longer.===
He’s not going to attack MJM openly because he know’s he’ll have to work with him. He attacks Quinn because he is the current Governor and that the job he wants!

Comment by Union Man Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 12:56 pm
–I don’t think the “union bosses” line carries much water with independents–

His donor network digs it, though.

Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 1:04 pm
Retired state employee with back-pay owed. Lifelong Dem. and afscme member. Will vote straight Rep. in general election, will not vote in primary. Will sell my soul to get back at Quinn, Madigan and the rest of the turncoat dems. will do anything to make them hurt.

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 1:37 pm
“Rauner will play extremely well with the suburbanites. Suburban Cook and the collar counties have been trending Dem recently because of the GOP’s focus on the social issues. I fully expect Rauner to reverse that.”

That depends. The unions and Quinn have to bring their “A” game. There are ways to do it, to have a chance in the suburbs.

Rauner has a lot of potentially severe negatives. The unions and Quinn need to do a laser job in targeting voters who can make the difference in what could be a close election.

Since Rauner is making “government union bosses” a main feature of his campaign, the unions need to respond by showing that he invested in government pension funds for years–the very same funds that the union bosses fight for. This kind of hypocrisy has the potential to turn off many people.

Another big potential scandal the unions can use is that of the truck drivers who sued and apparently have a large settlement coming.

Of course, there are the nursing homes and the question of liability. If I remember correctly, in the case of the truck drivers, the allegation was that Rauner’s company had a convoluted scheme to rip off employees. It’s the same with the nursing homes. The plaintiffs are alleging that Rauner’s company and other companies used complicated corporate dealings to avoid liability. One plaintiff is still trying to get the huge jury award.

Then of course, big time, is Rauner’s relationship with Democrats and the Payton Prep issue.

Comment by Grandson of Man Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 1:38 pm
I think about Rauner in the General, like I did at first about him in the Primary: He either can create and catch a well-financed wave and win big (for an Illinois Republican), or be blown away by Quinn.

I remain convinced he is the only GOP candidate who could give Quinn big problems — change for change’s sake. A lot will depend on perceptions of the state economy.

Comment by Walker Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 2:04 pm
I’ve yet to hear exactly what this change will be that Rauner speaks of—this shake up. I believe Obama used the same or similar words and I haven’t seen anything happen. If there is to be a real shakeup and real change, I’d like to know what that means.

Comment by AnonymousOne Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 2:13 pm
upon further review this cycle is proof the AFL-CIO should separate and return to the their roots AFL in one corner and the CIO in another, redefine the objectives they have in their charters and adjust to each sectors needs for the good of the memberships(s) it’s hard to comprehend a Food and commercial worker having the same issues as a Teacher as an Electrician as Hotel service employee? a long way from the “cigar” makers ideas I’d say

Comment by railrat Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 2:46 pm
==Uh, yes he will. More than either of the 2 get done now.==

Please explain how.

Comment by Pensioner Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 2:50 pm
Ok. Since you asked. MJM already runs his caucus like a business. Whether he likes BR or not, he will trust him and respect his intellect. This relationship will look more like Mike and Pate. The two of them together will bring John C. along. With super majorities in both chambers, but differing thoughts and agendas, the Governor will pick sides. BR will be more judicious and compromise will be more common than one might immediately think. You’ll have 3 big egos instead of two big ones and a perpetual underdog. It will be more like a business.

Comment by A guy... Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 4:33 pm
Tell me I’m wrong, but if BR wins the primary I think he has an easy answer for the “hate union bosses-love public pension cash” issue. I think he’s hinted at it previously.

He can legitimately say that he did his job by investing the public funds well and earning them good money-above the benchmark. In contrast, the “union bosses” he beefs about sold out both the public interest and their members by all the cushy pension deals they arranged over the years. His friends at the Trib will step right up and offer him plenty of examples.

Doesn’t seem hypocritical from that perspective.

Comment by Arthur Andersen Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 4:55 pm
If Dillard is nominated, Quinn could be in real trouble

But Rauner will lose to Quinn. Even state employees will not vote for Rauner. Some won’t vote but most will come around.

Comment by Federalist Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 4:56 pm
Federalist, there’s a big world outside Sangamon County. Try thinking about that sometime.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 4:59 pm
===Whether he likes BR or not, he will trust him and respect his intellect.===

What do you base that on? Where has MJM said that, and further, if he hasn’t, how do you know how MJM actually feels/thinks about Rauner? Yikes!

===…the Governor will pick sides. BR will be more judicious and compromise will be more common than one might immediately think…===

What do you base THIS on? Seriously, Rauner has no Co-Equal Branch experience … Rauner has NO branch experience. When did Rauner say he was going to be Solomon? In an Ad? In a Debate? lol

===It will be more like a business.===

See, lol, Rauner playing Solomon, means … “King”… not Co-Equal. Tnhis is the pitfall., and I love how you described it! MJM is not goig to let Rauner decide who wins, Rod tried that with Emil, how did that go??

You have got to stop drinking the “Business” Kool-Aid and wak up to the reality that MJM is going to size up Rauner, let Rauner try to bully he and Cullerton and smack Rauner down. If Rauner tries shutting down the state, witholding pay, any stunt, all that “respect” will have been long long long gone.

If Rauner tries to govern as a Co-Equal, all those wanting the “Career Politician’s heads” and “Union Bosses tails”… will face so much disappointment, and the backlash will be devastaing.

Tough nut to crack. But then again, I ain’t drinking Kool-Aid to think all will fall at Rauner’s feet. lol

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 5:13 pm
Mr. Miller,

Yes, I am certainly aware of my geography and realize that there is a big country outside of Sangamon County. I am particularly aware of this reality because I do not live in Sangampon County.

However, I will stand by my comments, although the political season is still early and I could be wrong. Won’t be the first time.

But my comments are certainly rational because I have thought about this for sometime.

Not certain why you seem so desrious to take on my thoughts as if they had no possible basis in reality.

Comment by Federalist Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 5:41 pm
“He can legitimately say that he did his job by investing the public funds well and earning them good money-above the benchmark. In contrast, the “union bosses” he beefs about sold out both the public interest and their members by all the cushy pension deals they arranged over the years.”

This doesn’t work for me. He was directly involved in benefiting the union bosses. He was part of the problem he is fighting. If union bosses were bad to Rauner, he wouldn’t have tainted himself and the state with enriching their members from the beginning.

I’m sorry, but from my perspective, Rauner can’t spin his way out of it. Again, if union bosses were destroying the state by fighting for so-called lavish pensions for their members, why was Rauner part of that for years?

Ladies and gents, if there will be major labor unrest under a Rauner administration that tries to unilaterally weaken unions, please try to understand why.

Comment by Grandson of Man Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 6:27 pm
Grandson, that’s not the point. He can say “I’m not talking about teachers in the classroom or cops on the beat. I love them. Now take this guy who subbed for a day to get a teacher pension. That’s what I’m talkin’ about.”

Yeah, it’s spin. But it will ring with many people.

Comment by Arthur Andersen Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 8:12 pm
Those numbers aren’t really as horrible as some might think–given what a shellacking he’s taken a good deal of time over the last 4 + years!

In the end, more than enough and a solid-enough majority of Dems and pseudo-Dems who like to call themselves “Independents” will X his name on their Ballot, or electronically punch it, because once he and many OTHER Dem. Allies have FULLY defined for the Illinois Public for 8 Months who the REAL Bruce Rauner IS, and build BIG-time upon what br’s 3 Republican Opponents have ALREADY rightfully pointed out/blasted him repeatedly about for Months on END now re. his blatant flaws and deficiencies for the Job, most of those Undecideds no doubt, and likely a decent chunk of those even in the “Disagree” category, just won’t be able to swallow voting for the shady, altogether inexperienced, out of touch, 2-faced Kabillionaire (even if they held their noses)…!

Comment by Just The Way It Is One Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 9:19 pm
Anonymous @ 9:56 “I just wonder why those dogs don’t run away and look for a new master.”

The obvious explanation is that they are looking around, and everyone they see is worse.

Comment by Odysseus Thursday, Mar 6, 14 @ 10:26 pm
Federalist
“Even state employees will not vote for Rauner. Some won’t vote but most will come around.”

I hate to burst your bubble but i think your missing something. I spent soem time working for IDOC. I still have quite a few friedns that still work for DOC. They stil haven’t been paid for those raises that were contracturally agreed upon that ceaser Quinn arbitrarily decided not to pay, They almost went to strike over their last contract (i know security can’t strike) there were a lot of belt tightening scared employees over that mess, ANd finally Quinn gleefully gutted their pensions ignoring a “compromise” with the unions which most of them despised to sign something worse. I suspect AFSCME endorsing Quinn will be greated with groans and slips for Fair Share. TO be honest i think best course for AFSCME is to endorse Dillard and when he loses refuse to endorse anyone in the General for Gov.

The ones i know intend to either vote R or leave it blank.

Comment by Mason born Friday, Mar 7, 14 @ 8:06 am