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Poll: Rauner back on the upswing

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Polls

* The latest We Ask America tracker with the previous results in parentheses…

Bill Brady 19 (12)

Kirk Dillard 26 (14.5)

Bruce Rauner 46.5 (40)

Dan Rutherford 9 (8)

Undecided - (26)

The firm did not give the 1,235 likely GOP voters an “undecided” option this time around. The poll was taken yesterday and had a margin of error of ± 2.9 percent.

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 8:51 am

Comments

It looks like the train has left the station!!!

Comment by Conductor Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 8:54 am
I think I hear the “fat lady singing”.

Comment by Opera leader Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 8:54 am
Not really an upswing as the margin is less from the others. He took the fewest undecideds other than Rutherford. Still a big lead though.

Comment by Anon Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 8:55 am
The “bandwagon effect” has apparently taken over here.

Comment by phocion Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 8:55 am
I’m big on labor, but the way they handled this GOP primary letting Rauner getting a free pass is pathetic. With all the internal bickering, egos, and different agendas there is no surprise that labor unions have been in decline since the 1960’s.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 8:56 am
Captain Quinn to the union crew - “We’re going to need a bigger boat”

Jaws reference…..

Comment by Downstate Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 8:56 am
Also remember early voting is going on. But unless all the undecided break for Dillard, it seems it’s over.

Bet he REALLY regrets that video now. He might be Gov now if not for it.

Comment by Pat C Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 8:59 am
Take away the undecided option and Dillard gets the biggest bump, but obviously not enough.

The only question now is who turns out where.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:01 am
Not over yet . Go to illinois review and look at the tv ad that the illinois retired association released very damming . Look who’s surging Bill Brady

Comment by Nathan Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:06 am
===Dillard gets the biggest bump===

Yes, I’m aware of that, but keep in mind that the unions have said Rauner is on the ropes.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:06 am
===Go to illinois review and look at the tv ad that the illinois retired association released very damming===

First, the group is called Alliance for Retired Americans.

Second, it’s a web video, not a TV ad, and it has been viewed a whopping 263 times. http://youtu.be/R_hfuks2E84

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:10 am
–…but keep in mind that the unions have said Rauner is on the ropes.–

Whistling past the graveyard.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:10 am
I suspect this has been asked before, but just out of curiosity, who funds the We Ask America polls?

Comment by anon Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:11 am
“When you are only 20 points down…”

You might be hearing, “I don’t want to finish behind ‘X’…”

Isn’t Rutherford’s 9% the same number Rauner had when the “3″ didn’t even take a Rauner seriously.

The only bet worth “anything” would be:

“Over/Under - Rutherford, 9.5%”

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:14 am
Nathan, that web video is not damning - with all due respect to the nice lady, it’s not a very good spot. And Bill Brady surging? Cmon - you don’t really believe that do you?

Comment by Chicago Cynic Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:15 am
This is only a hunch (not a subscriber, not yet) but my guess is the unions (at least some of them) were really hoping for a Rutherford surge, and that he’d start getting some of his own money. After he imploded it was too late. Oh well. Hopefully they gathered at least a little data on how effective that nursing-homes attack is, whether we’ll see it again in the general.

Comment by ZC Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:16 am
===who funds the We Ask America polls? ===

They have tons of clients, including myself. Occasionally, they use profits to pay for publicly released trackers.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:16 am
I think the GOP primary will be a good test for the We Ask America Poll.

Their polling in 2012 was terrible, especially in the congressional races in IL. That is why I’m a little hesitant on how wide Rauner’s lead is. I believe he is in the lead, but 20 points seems to high.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:18 am
Now that the writing is on the wall only two questions remain: 1) what does Bruce Rauner plan to do about the impending goat war? and 2) will this in any way distract from our invasion of Missouri?

Comment by The Captain Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:20 am
Ouch…Brady and Dillard percentages COMBINED do not equal Rauner’s number. People can see what they want in poll numbers (gee, look at Brady “surge” and meanwhile, Dillard’s “surge” is larger). I expected a tighter race….but the sampling was larger, the margin of error lower.

Comment by anonymoose Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:23 am
The Poll is, “likely republican voters.” For Dillard to win, the unions have to get their members who are not “likely GOP voters,”

There were 767k votes in the republican primary in 2010. There has to be at least 850k votes cast for Dillard to win. The unions have to get the crossovers in or be content with a Rauner v. Quinn matchup. It is that simple at this point.

Comment by the Patriot Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:25 am
Ugh. Just ugh.

Comment by Soccermom Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:26 am
tP, early voting/absentee numbers I’ve seen so far don’t show any surge of Democrats asking for GOP ballots and an actual drop in independents asking for GOP ballots. I’ll update today, though.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:28 am
Public employee unions big ad campaign looks like it backfired. Just got the conservatives to realize Rauner is the one candidate serious about taking on the public employee unions. Nothing like throwing away a few million dollars.

Comment by Downstater Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:28 am
Same numbers as the poll on Illinois Review yesterday. Rauner has too big a lead.

Comment by Mode Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:32 am
–Public employee unions big ad campaign looks like it backfired. –

Hardly backfired. With the removal of the undecided option, Rauner and Brady each pick up about a quarter of them and Dillard half.

It’s not enough to beat Rauner in the primary but you can find out what works for the general.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:35 am
===The unions have to get the crossovers in or be content with a Rauner v. Quinn matchup. It is that simple at this point.===

Yep. Agree.

Perspective?

Dillard needs the FOP, The Teachers, ASCME, to maximize the crossovers at such a high percentage, and that percentage must translate to raw ballots at a level of impact to at least equal a “Punch 10″ avalanche…. and….

Dillard has “no” GOTV to mesh WITH… The FOP, The Teachers, ASCME… and… the GOTV and Election Day apparatuses must do all this coordination that equals or surpasses “Punch 10″… in less than 1 week, given this incredibly late start.

“Other than that…”

This would be Hodas’, his Crew’s, and ALL the Union’s biggest triumph, and the largest successful political undertaking, given all the above variables… Arguably ever… in Illinois political history.

That, is reality. This poll, puts that in painful focus.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:36 am
==Second, it’s a web video, not a TV ad, and it has been viewed a whopping 263 times. http://youtu.be/R_hfuks2E84==
263 LOL! Probably at least 10 of the 263 from staff/candidate alone on various devices. But it is now up to 270. I wonder how many of the views will be credited to your placing it in Comments?

Comment by Robert the Bruce Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:44 am
Rauner is running away with it.

Comment by Harley Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:45 am
“I’m big on labor, but the way they handled this GOP primary letting Rauner getting a free pass is pathetic.”

It seems that unions got in very late too, with the Dillard endorsement. Now members are supposed to scramble to pull a Republican primary ballot. I’m not saying it can’t be done, it just appears to be too little too late.

Comment by Grandson of Man Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:48 am
The dawn of the new Illinois Republican Party under a Rauner Administration is upon us. It will consist of right wing economic conservatives with a my way or the highway mentality placing profits above all else. Rule will be by the banker class.

Worker protections from bargaining for wages & conditions of employment, pension rights and workers’ compensation will be under attack by Rauner and his pals as just another nuisance in the way of prosperity.

Trickle down economics is good enough for the rest you.

This is not speculation. This mentality has been on full display as a guiding light (or laser) for Rauner through his professional life. (Lason, Inc, CompBenefits, Stu Levine, nursing home abuse, etc.). And I do not demonize the rich having done quite well my self. But, the principles followed by Rauner in business are not a good mix for governing.

Comment by Samurai Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:48 am
Anyone see a major swing coming this weekend? I will say this race doesn’t seem to have much juice in Chicagoland. Not sure what that means… but anyway I’d be shocked if Rauner doesn’t win.

Comment by From the 'Dale to HP Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:50 am
Two Republican friends explaining why they’ll vote for Rauner in the Primary favor — “Unions run everything in this state.”

And these are smart, relatively well-informed voters. It’s hard to change mind-sets.

It’s not just the big funders who will back the anti-union message.

Comment by Walker Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:52 am
“Shaking up Springfield” looks like a winner.

No reason Rauner had to have that all to himself.

Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:57 am
–“Shaking up Springfield” looks like a winner.

No reason Rauner had to have that all to himself.–

I think having unlimited funds while your opponents have nothing is more significant than a rather generic tagline.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 10:03 am
There is no reason to believe the new billionaire elected governor will be that different from the billionaires who have always ran the GOP. It could be just a generational change among the Illinois Country Club GOP set, but anyone claiming it is going to be vastly different means that this group wants to win elections, not lose them.

Rauner is not just a self funder. He was a wealthy contributor to both parties for a long time. He was a funding insider for both parties. A decade ago he began considering a run for office, and why not? We have a long list of rich guys running for office in both parties, Rauner is just another one.

2014 was ripe for any candidate who claimed to not be a part of the current ruling class in Chicago or Springfield. And why not? Illinois sucks like a Category five debt hurricane. We just had two jailed governors. We have he worse credit rating.

Who the hell is going to vote to keep the people in office who gave us this s***storm? How long can voters choose a candidate based on the crap negative ads destroying any political opposition. C’mon folks - just how long do you think Illinois can scrap bottom before voter get tired of it all?

You have to be really disconnected from the average Illinoisan, or have nearly zero respect for their opinion - not to have see this coming. What is surprising is how long it has taken.

Rauner is the guy who caught the wave - but take a long look at the other guys and you see that they weren’t even putting a foot into the surf. Rauner has had this completely to himself.

If the other guys wanted to win the nomination, they needed to have tried to reach out to tap into the anger and frustration among voters. Not only could they have said a similar message to Rauner, they also had experience to know how to accomplish the changes voters seem to want.

Rauner is the winner - but the other guys couldn’t have tried less either. The GOP has been losing for so long, the guys at the top of the party didn’t really seem interested in running for governor. Rauner did.

So please don’t whine and cry. When politics gets as bad as how they’ve been in Illinois, don’t be surprised when an outsider candidate wins, but lacks what ever qualities you have been so comfortably rotting away in Illinois with.

It also isn’t a done deal. Looks like he’s got it and against Quinn he looks like a winner, but this is Illinois. We reelected Blagojevich with Michael J. Madigan as his co-chair. I’ve seen a lot of suck over the past couple of decades here, and I’ve learned that Illinois has a knack of electing and putting into office mushrooms, ducklings, future felons and lawyers without scruples. So who knows?

Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 10:18 am
Nice post, Samurai.

We are the only first-world country that’s trying to repeal health insurance reform. Many are trying to repeal it without providing an alternative that will guarantee coverage for more people. There is no other rich country in the world doing this.

This may work in the short term, but I saw some disturbing poll numbers that may not bode well for conservatives. Non-whites are growing at a faster rate than whites, and non-white millenials support government assistance at 71% in the poll I’m attaching. Millenials are more liberal than past generations and support government assistance.

http://www.govexec.com/management/2014/03/majority-millennials-prefer-big-government/80122/

Comment by Grandson of Man Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 10:41 am
The polls and the ultimate results will show that Rauner did outspend them all. He also outworked them, outsmarted them, out resourced them, out strategized them and just plain out messaged them. This says as much about 3 stodgy, lethargic, you owe me this office cause it’s my turn campaigns as it does about one supremely planned and executed one. It’s coming out the only way it could considering the circumstances. No big deal, but I’ll predict Brady finishes ahead of Dillard. The union’s waste of money in this race with absolute poor judgment is a much bigger story than what Rauner spent. They didn’t get it early, they didn’t get it late and they won’t get it before November. Because they don’t want to get it. Count on there being a “let’s shake up union leadership” very soon. They all deserve to be fired.

Comment by A guy... Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 10:54 am
Does this pole take into account my crossover vote for dillard?

Comment by foster brooks Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 11:12 am
Or mine? (foster brooks)

Comment by Dear Abby Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 11:39 am
I guess the Beetles were wrong. Money can buy you love. Bruce has even found the exact price.

Comment by Mason born Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 12:23 pm
I have spoken to two union family members. One ignores the union email, the other won’t vote in the republican primary. The unions have to address this now.

It is logistical. If the unions get their members to vote Dillard wins. If Brady and Rutherford prove they care more about the state than their egos and drop to endorse Dillard, he has a shot. If both happens, he hammers Rauner and wins the general by 10 points.

I bet neither happens.

Comment by the Patriot Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 12:37 pm
For all those screaming about how the poll didn’t detect crossover votes, you really need to go to this other post now: https://capitolfax.com/2014/03/12/no-surge-detected-yet/

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 1:31 pm
The crossover thing will turn out to be a non-factor. Plus, the Quinn People and Dems. WANT Rauner as the opponent for him–they’re just chompin’ at the bit to lay their hands on him even WAY more than what he’s been kicked around about alREADy to even, somewhat remarkably, even MAKE Dillard a long shot at this point.

No, I commented on this latest Republican Poll last night on the Post about Quinn easily whomping Tio on the Dem’s side. Kirk is gonna get the Silver, folks, although I DO give him kudos for AT LEAST taking the late influx of Union Endorsements’/respectable outlays of CA$H for him to spend on TV and Radio, and making what had become a surprisingly lame GOP Contest overall–with Rauner, heretofore, just simply financially overwhelming/inTIMidating his 3 Opponents, really, with his No Limits to out-of-control Super-Rich Guy wild-spending approach to BUYing the Nomination with an often UNsuccessful OUTcome for past candidates UTILizing such an approach, but still while runnin’ away with it for months–at least somewhat INTeresting with less than a Week to go…!

Comment by Just The Way It Is One Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 7:45 pm
wordy -
I think it was last week when the Tribune endorsed Rauner that we discussed self funders and how the Tribune endorsed them - and these folks LOST big time.

We just did that last week and I think it is quite clear that the belief that Rauner is winning because of his money has been proven incorrect. Money spent in vast amounts in past primaries did not assist other self funded millionaires.

We are stuck with a need to recognize that Rauner is winning because of his messages and campaign, not his loot.

Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 8:57 pm
–We are stuck with a need to recognize that Rauner is winning because of his messages and campaign, not his loot.–

That’s absurd. His generic “message” would mean oogats if he didn’t have $12 million behind it, coupled with the fact that the Other 3 don’t have enough money to pay attention.

Blair Hull, Ron Gidwitz, Al Hofeld didn’t own the airwaves for months at a time like Rauner has.

The only comparable situation is the months that Blago pounded JBT, and she didn’t have the money to answer until late in the game.

Was it the Blago “message” that won his second term? Or was it money?

What’s Oberweis’ “message,” that is resounding with 52% of likely GOP voters?

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:15 pm