Latest Post | Last 10 Posts | Archives
Previous Post: *** UPDATED x1 *** Farnham’s office, home searched
Next Post: Cross fending off “outside groups”
Posted in:
* From Dan Proft…
Liberty Principles PAC-backed Keith Matune Opens Up a Lead on incumbent Ron Sandack
Conservative challenger Keith Matune has opened up a lead on incumbent Republican State Rep. Ron Sandack entering the final weekend before the Republican Primary Election on Tuesday, March 18.
Over the course of the last 7 weeks, Matune has steadily risen in the polls as voters in the 81th District have gotten to know him and to evaluate him in comparison to Sandack, including through communications in district (mail, phones, TV, online) produced by Liberty Principles PAC.
The survey was commissioned by Liberty Principles PAC and conducted by the Florida-based polling firm of Fabrizio Lee (www.fabriziolee.com).
Sandack-Matune survey
DATE: March 11-12
Sample: 300 Likely GOP primary voters
Margin of Error: +/- 5.7%Matune 37
Sandack 31When I first surveyed this race on January 21-22, Sandack led 32-16. When I next surveyed the race on March 2-3, Sandack led 31-22. Now Matune has opened up a lead outside the margin of error.
- Dan Proft, Chairman, Liberty Principles PAC
NOTES:
Matune’s favorable/unfavorable is nearly 2:1 (35-19) whereas Sandack’s is 1:1 (34-33)
Matune wins among those who have heard of both (78% of sample) by 11. Matune leads with those who have an opinion of both (50% of sample) by 23.
Matune leads with conservatives by 21
posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 1:55 pm
Sorry, comments are closed at this time.
Previous Post: *** UPDATED x1 *** Farnham’s office, home searched
Next Post: Cross fending off “outside groups”
WordPress Mobile Edition available at alexking.org.
powered by WordPress.
Thanks Rich!
Comment by Big Muddy Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 1:58 pm
The first liar never has a chance, but sometimes it is the lie that folks remembered best.
Comment by VanillaMan Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:00 pm
If accurate, Sandack was probably doomed from the start. To incumbents the starting number is more important than the margin and a starting position of
Comment by Will Caskey Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:04 pm
That’s weird. I meant to say:
If accurate, Sandack was probably doomed from the start. To incumbents the starting number is more important than the margin and a starting position of
Comment by Will Caskey Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:06 pm
LESS THAN 35. Ugh. Sorry I fail at html. Less than 35 is bad.
Comment by Will Caskey Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:07 pm
…in the 81th District.
Comment by A proud, numerically challenged people... Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:10 pm
It’s Proft. It’s a 300 sample size. I’m highly dubious of this “poll.”
Comment by Chicago Cynic Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:10 pm
Is he going to share the actual poll questions and cross tabs?
Comment by dave Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:12 pm
Let’s see.
(1)A margin of error of 5.7% means that Matune may be 5.7% too high or Sandack is 5.7% too far down. A spread of 11.4% - so it is anyone’s race. That is what you get with the sample size.
(2) The results heading says “Breen Pihos” - does that lend a certain dubiousness to the results?
(3) A recent trip through Downers Grove….lots of Sandack signs. Matune signs, maybe they fell down in the snow, escaped through a window or something?
Comment by anonymoose Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:18 pm
Hey Dan why don’t you show the polling questions and cross tabs?
Comment by Northern Will Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:22 pm
How does a sex offender have a 2-1 fav/unfav? If that’s true of Republican Primary voters, this state deserves to stay blue and the GOP needs to be wiped out.
Why hasn’t Dorgan, Cronin or someone demanded he get out?
Comment by Just sayin' Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:24 pm
We’ll find out soon enough.
Comment by 47th Ward Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:33 pm
The inherent difficulties in polling these small districts make me suspicious and the lack of specifics even more.
That being said, these guys are a new firm and the only poll they’ve done that I could find was FL-13 where they were pretty close (43-43-7) whereas it seemed that a lot of other polls had the Dem candidate up. So, maybe they’re really good. Either way, I’m not sold.
Comment by Johnny Q. Suburban Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:34 pm
Though, then again, if Sandack had an internal which showed him up, I’m sure he would have released it.
Comment by Johnny Q. Suburban Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:35 pm
===these guys are a new firm ===
These guys did poling for Bob Dole.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:35 pm
A sample size of callers from Proft’s WLS show. Every time I want to like him, he does something to make me question that effort.
Comment by Wumpus Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:44 pm
Reap the whirlwind, Mr. Proft.
Comment by Bored Chairman Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:46 pm
-Rich-
Frabrizo polled for Dole. This is a new firm.
http://atr.rollcall.com/republicans-form-new-polling-firm/
Comment by Johnny Q. Suburban Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:47 pm
No comment on poll, but the firm is well established and reputable - Tony Fabrizio is a well know, reputable GOP pollster.
Comment by Dave Fako Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:49 pm
And, regarding the firm being new or old is not relevant, this is still a firm run by reputable and well established pollsters. My own firm went through a recent name change and structural changes, but the fact is we have been polling for nearly two decades.
Comment by Dave Fako Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:53 pm
it’s a reputable firm. one of the best. the only question is whether the amount of calls going on in that district hurts the ability to get a representative sample
Comment by Powell Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 3:04 pm
All conjecture. Election day is the only proof of anything. Either way, Proft is a loser on this one. Even if he bests Sandack, this race makes him look bad and will continue to make him look bad through the general. If he loses, he loses too. A dumb move to put all your eggs in Matune’s messy basket.
Comment by justsayin' Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 3:04 pm
Fako is correct. And there are other numbers out there. Move along.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 3:05 pm
===The only question is whether the amount of calls going on in that district hurts the ability to get a representative sample ===
I agree with that. We gave up trying on this and some other races days ago. Nobody’s answering.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 3:08 pm
I just wonder if polling firms are finding everyone. Not that I am complaining, my cell phone has received not a single political call (polling, robo call, nada). No home phone (for about two years now) - which used to be a bit active during election years. E-mails from the campaigns I have had contact with - and a few I have not contacted. I have not missed an election in over thirty years.
Comment by anonymoose Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 3:10 pm
The Matune fav/unfav makes me question this. But then, I question anything that comes from Profit.
Comment by LincolnLounger Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 4:22 pm
We will know in 5 days how accurate Proft’s poll is.I don’t have much faith in it.
Comment by Mokenavince Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 4:27 pm
300 sample size in a legislative district primary of one party is plenty. It may be hard to get people on the phone, but it sounds like they eventually got 300 to take the poll. Ask Fako, 300 is a decent sample size.
Comment by Tom Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 5:16 pm
I read this post and take lot of information from this post.Thanks
Comment by Election Polls Results Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:07 pm