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Edgar: Money matters and the polls are wrong

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Illinois

* Jim Edgar appeared with Sen. Kirk Dillard at campaign stops over the weekend…

Edgar said Rauner’s position as frontrunner is due to his flush campaign fund. Rauner has pumped $6 million of his own money into his campaign, however, he’s raised more than $6 million from others, including huge donations from some of the wealthiest people in the state.

“If he had the same amount of money as Kirk Dillard, Kirk Dillard would be ahead of him 3 to 1 in the polls today,” Edgar contended. “It’s purely money in my estimation, why he has the leads he has in he polls. The other thing I would also caution you. It’s very difficult to poll in a primary. Those numbers are not accurate. Turnout is the key. You don’t know what the turnout’s going to be. You don’t know what the cross over votes are going to be.”

Edgar says Rauner is ahead because of money and the polls are wrong. But isn’t that a wee bit contradictory?

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 9:27 am

Comments

“Turnout is the key. You don’t know what the turnout’s going to be. You don’t know what the cross over votes are going to be.”

Sweet, that’s the center square on my “things people who are about to lose an election say” bingo card!

Comment by so... Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 9:28 am
Im not sure why Edgar is interested in this race. Its not like Dillard was once his chief of staff! Wait…he …what?

Comment by anon Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 9:32 am
Cross over voter here. Can Dillard really win? I should be voting in the Democratic Primary against Quinn. This is so messed up.

Comment by Makandadawg Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 9:32 am
This is Dillard’s second bite at the apple and he’s had decades to prep for this run. No excuses.

Put up or shut up time.

Comment by shore Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 9:33 am
Rauners spokesman is impressive, he is asked a question and the standard response is always, “because they know Bruce will shake up sprongfield”

Comment by A modest proposal Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 9:33 am
Springfield

Comment by A modest proposal Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 9:33 am
Jim Edgar derives quite a bit of self-satisfaction as the elder statesman and only Republican who can show up on mailers and fundraisers for down ballot candidates in any part of the state and be well received. He could never come out and say it, but a Dillard loss and Rauner win means a measurable loss of prestige for Edgar.

Comment by Meanderthal Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 9:38 am
=== Those numbers are not accurate. Turnout is the key. You don’t know what the turnout’s going to be. You don’t know what the cross over votes are going to be.”===

With much Respect to former Governor Jim Edgar;

“…’Turnout is the key. If you don’t know what YOUR controlled “Pluses” turnout’s going to be, and if you don’t know what the cross over votes are going to be, you are just guessing how the Election might end!’…”

Better

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 9:44 am
Lets pray Edgar is right. If you can buy a Primary we are doomed!

Comment by Barney Fife Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 9:45 am
One wonders where Edgar was early in this campaign, when his unqualified support could’ve swayed some of the big money guys to support Dillard. It seems the only funding that Dillard can get is from the teacher’s unions to raise taxes and keep the currently unsustainable pensions in place and extend them to new employees.

If the unions’ mailers for him are accurate, he supported the right to strike provisions in the Illinois education labor relations act in 1983 and the “sole negotiating agent” provision that ceded school controlling power in our schools to the unions,contrary to the best interests of the children and taxpayers, and he opposes the right to work statutes that have been successful for economic growth in our neighbors.

Does anyone dispute that this guy, just like Edgar and Thompson, are COMPLETELY in the public unions’ pockets? How can any serious fiscal conservative even consider voting for this guy?

Comment by Arizona Bob Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 10:10 am
Message also matters, and as far as I can tell there’s not been much of one with Dillard and now others have created the “tool of unions” message.

Edgar’s presige has greatly diminished. Let’s face it, it’s been twenty years since he’s been on the ballot. endorsements have always been overrated in my view, and even from that less than lofty place they continue to drop in importance each successive year.

Comment by edgarly Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 10:11 am
The best thing about Rauner winning is we will never have to listen to Jim Edgar again!!
Jim go back to Colorado, retire, go away, we’re moving on now!

Comment by votecounter Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 10:17 am
Jim Edgar’s campaign account, it’s still active, had over $500,000 in it at the end of the year. If he so fired up over Dillard, why didn’t he use a big chunk of that money early to finance Dillar’s campaign, when Dillard really needed it.?
Edgar wants to be relevant in these campaigns, but sure wants to hang on to his money. He talks the talk, but sure doesn’t walk the walk.

Comment by Downstater Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 10:21 am
The Dillard campaign is all over the place. First with the anti-gay marriage, anti-abortion positioning, then a lurch over to the unions.

Comment by wordslinger Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 10:31 am
AS Edgar pontificates about this and that in Illinois, he still holds on to his campaign fund which he inherited prior to the law which requires you do away with it. I’m with VOTECOUNTER…go away and shut up.

Comment by flea Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 10:40 am
Edgar may just be saying what he needs to say to support his guy, but the idea that Dillard is behind only because of money does not seem consistent with what appears to be the real mood of the voters.

More than in most years, it seems this year voters really are looking for an outsider. Or at least somebody who has not yet held elective office.

Rauner is running on “I’m an outsider and I can shake things up.”

Dillard is running on “I’ve been around forever and can get things done.”

This year, Rauner’s message is the one that hits home.

Comment by Smoggie Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 10:44 am
To be blunt, I have seen Edgar campaigning for Dillard more then Dillard himself.

Thats the problem

Comment by Ghost Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 11:10 am
Does anyone remember the 1976 presidential election when the “national mood” was looking for an “outsider” to clean things up in Washington? It reminds me of the old adage “Be care careful what you wish for …” Go Jimmy!

Comment by Anonymous Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 11:19 am
You don’t know what the cross over votes are going to be.”

Well I asked about the cross-over vote when I early voted at my local election authority and was told they were not seeing it when it came to early voting…

Comment by OneMan Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 11:23 am
=== Edgar says Rauner is ahead because of money and the polls are wrong. But isn’t that a wee bit contradictory? ===

Yes.

Comment by Just Observing Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 11:31 am
I may regret using this quote…

Losers talk about how the poll numbers are wrong and winners go home and prepare for the general.

Comment by OneMan Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 11:57 am
It seems to me the race HAS changed. What has changed is that Dillard has now moved into uncontested second place. A 17% polling lead by Rauner is far from insurmountable, especially in a low-turnout primary with many people voting in the Republican primary who do not normally do so. Remember that in the 1982 general election (where polls can be expected to be more reliable), Jim Thompson had a lead of about 17% in most polls and Adlai Stevenson came within 2,500 votes of winning.

Comment by Quiet Sage Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 12:00 pm
Oneman, not that I disagree, but after I watched Quinn win when the polls had him 15 points behind I have become more cautious.

Comment by Ghost Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 12:09 pm
===after I watched Quinn win when the polls had him 15 points behind===

As I’ve pointed out many, many times before, those polls were faulty because the pollsters did not include all the candidates in their polling. Only those pollsters who did include all the candidates were able to get an accurate read - that the race was super, super close.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 12:19 pm
No matter what you all say, Edgar er
a which was with Dillard as COS, was and has been only positive for this state in many years. Argue that

Comment by down south Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 6:02 pm
Where were Dillard and Edgar during the MSI Corruption Scandal ? I believe they were in office and responsible. Another gov candidate for the hooskow.

Comment by A Citizen Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 7:28 pm
I read in the Sun Times that Edgar said that Rauner would be a governor for a group of rich Republicans. does that mean he is voting for Rauner?

Comment by well then Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 8:54 pm
Three reasons Rauner is set to win -
Dillard
Rutherford

Three reasons Rauner is set to win in November -
Ryan
Blagojevich
Quinn

Comment by VanillaMan Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 11:06 pm
Gee, that typo made me look like Rick Perry

Three reasons Rauner is set to win the Primary -
Dillard
Brady
Rutherford

Three reasons Rauner is set to win in November -
Ryan
Blagojevich
Quinn

Comment by VanillaMan Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 11:08 pm