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Slight uptick detected

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Illinois

* As I told you last week, We Ask America is monitoring who is voting early and absentee in the Republican primary.

Last week didn’t show much if any actual uptick in Democratic involvement. Independents were down six points from 2010, and Republicans and Democrats were up three points each as a share of the total.

As explained before, a Democrat is classified as somebody who has taken a “D” primary ballot at least once since 2008. Independents are those who have not voted in a partisan primary since 2008. The State Board of Elections’ voter file is matched up with the names of people who’ve already voted.

The final numbers for early and absentees are showing a little something, however…

So, the final early/absentee tally is more Democratic than four years ago, but it’s also more Republican and less independent.

And while there are slightly more Democrats voting than normal, after accounting for the drop in independents. it’s only about 800 votes out of almost 78,000 cast so far. At least, that’s my read.

Keep in mind this is only early and absentee voting. Things could be different tomorrow.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 2:44 pm

Comments

I’m sure it must be my inadequacy but I tried and have not been able to understand your columns in the absence of some kind of explanatory headings.

Comment by Mighty M. Mouse Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 2:54 pm
What is the purpose of listing “Independents?” Illinois has a closed primary system, so voters need to declare themselves by party.

Comment by Upon Further Review Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 2:56 pm
Can you imagine what will happen if unions turn out enough Dem’s to give Dillard the nomination? If voter turnout is around 850-900k things might get interesting tomorrow night…

Comment by Northern Will Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 2:58 pm
For the 4 GOP Guv candidates, and actually for all candidates looking at absentee ballots in general;

Unless you know YOUR “Pluses” voted early, took absentees, abc can count how many you have in the “bank”, this is Folly to the actual impact it will have on your actual campaign.

Go against a good precinct captain and watch the gloating of 30, 40… 50 absentee ballots, and the captain knowing 95% of those are his “Pluses”

What we see is a …trend, but nothing points to anyone driving the early voting to any of those 4 specifically from the campaign operations, so any and all the four could be both “exited” and “scared” by these events.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 2:59 pm
===What is the purpose of listing “Independents?===

Sigh.

If you saw last week’s post, it’s all explained.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 3:01 pm
Sorry, I did not read that post. What date was it? I will go back and check.

Comment by Upon Further Review Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 3:02 pm
===if unions turn out enough Dem’s to give Dillard the nomination?===

As explained earlier today, at minimum they’d need to turn out 126,000 new GOP primary voters to win.

Ever try to completely change the face of a partisan primary? Ever try to do that in a few weeks? Ever try to do that for a guy who isn’t all that beloved to begin with?

I want what you’re smoking.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 3:04 pm
Okay, I see. Anyone who has not cast a primary vote since 2008.

Comment by Upon Further Review Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 3:05 pm
Well it makes perfect sense that Republican would be up a bit and Independent down because of the high number of Independents in 2010 who pulled GOP ballots. Those who took part in the primary 4 years ago and are voting again would be Republican now. I would think that if you never voted in primaries before 2010 and were compelled to vote in the GOP despite a close race for the DEM nomination for governor and another race for the DEM senate race, you were motivated at least in part by the conservative groundswell of 2010.

Either way, no reason, as of yet, to believe in a Dillard miracle.

Comment by Johnny Q. Suburban Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 3:10 pm
I wonder if the increase has more to do with people getting comfortable with early voting? I’ve seen some of the early voter and absentee lists in my area and they are traditional D and R voters who just won’t be coming into the polling place tomorrow. I haven’t seen a trend of new voters or traditional Rs or Ds switching ballot requests. Then again, I’m not from DuPage or Will either.

Comment by Dwarf Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 3:13 pm
As noted, this all comes down to real numbers. As WAA noted in their tracker this morning, Dillard needs at least 125,000 dems to cross over and all vote for him to be able to make up for the 20-point deficit he is showing consistently in multiple recent samples.

To put that in perspective, the IEA has 130,000 active members. So they all must vote in the GOP primary and must vote exactly the same just to get Dillard in the hunt. That’s not even taking into account that perhaps 15-20% of IEA members are Republican voters already.

But maybe the polls are wrong…even if Rauner’s lead is half what the polls have shown, Dillard must have a perfect GOTV operation and get an unprecedented crossover and he still comes up short.

But judging by the last minute media buy I’m seeing today, Dillard won’t have a dime left by 7 pm tomorrow.

Comment by Adam Smith Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 3:23 pm
I wouldn’t presume ALL the crossover Dem voters in the GOP primary are going to Dillard. There’s nothing to vote for in most Dem races and some suburban Dems may be voting for Rauner. I don’t put a miracle past the unions (I gave it 15% - much higher than most - in Rich’s poll last week) but I’m not seeing it.

Comment by lake county democrat Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 3:29 pm
In Cook County, there were only 794 fewer early votes cast then during the 2010 primary. About 46% of the ballots were Republican this year, up from about 31% four years ago.

Comment by Upon Further Review Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 3:30 pm
I’d be surprised if much of the Dem and union crossover vote will happen tomorrow. It’s more likely that someone who was crossing over for Dillard would’ve done it at a more convenient early voting opportunity.

I think the biggest crossover factor tomorrow will be ambulatory seniors who are public retirees. They have plenty of time on their hands and tend to like the election day voting experience.

Comment by Arizona Bob Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 3:37 pm
Further review nailed it. Unless we are seeing a trend of increased significantly increased early voting, Democrats ae pulling Republican ballots. This gives Dillard some, although marginal, room to work. I think the Edgar fly around moves the needle a little his way. The press has been incredible and people love Edgar.

Comment by IL Champ Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 3:45 pm
=== I think the Edgar fly around moves the needle a little his way. The press has been incredible and people love Edgar.===

People indeed love Edgar. People have shown they could care less who Edgar himself loves. Just sayin’.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 3:48 pm
UPR - Actually Illinois has an open primary where anybody can vote in any primary, no party registration etc. is required (although you can only pull one partisan ballot in the election). The “D”, “R” and “I” and a few other designations are actually just based on past primary voting behavior, not registration and has been explained an “Independent” on the Illinois voter file really = a registered voters who has / regular votes in general elections but has not voted in a partisan primary. The I voters real behavior varies depedning on where you are - some are clearly D and R while some are true Independents.

The reality is some primary voters are pathological D / R primary voters even if they skip a few here and there, a smaller number go back and forth between both parties and a few I’s jump into the partisan contents (and once they do they get a partisan designation, and lose their I label, like it or not). Virtually all primary election campaigns that are contingent upon getting “I” voters or the opposite party primary voters to vote in their primary to win are doomed to failure.

Comment by Dave Fako Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 3:51 pm
No sign of cavalry - some claim to be seeing something like a dust cloud ahead however. Looks too small to make a difference any which way.

The GOP fort looks like it will be forced to open its gates tomorrow night.

Comment by VanillaMan Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 4:43 pm
My wife is planning on voting in the GOP primary - gotta go, there’s a pig flying around the back yard.

Comment by Excessively Rabid Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 4:51 pm
70 year old family member, lifelong Democrat announced they are voting in the Republican primary for the first time in their life.

They will be canceling out a union vote.

Comment by Downstate Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 5:24 pm
when 130,000 crossover’s occur because the ” labor leaders” spent their memberships “voluntary” PAC funds” for fear of a Rauner… Satan will be at Gander Mountain for artic gear…and even better if by chance it did occur Satan would be frozen solid if those “labor leaders” didn’t throw Dillard under the bus for Quinn in the general..

Comment by railrat Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 5:36 pm
@Dave Fuko:

As a result of a SCOTUS decision that came to be the case in the Seventies. Now, one can switch party affiliations in each primary (not permitted years ago without a twenty-three month waiting period), but what I was referring to is the continued process that requires every primary voter to publicly declare their party preference when requesting a ballot and having that request noted of record. There are other states where such a decision is made by the voter in the privacy of the polling booth.

Thousands of Illnoisans choose to skip primaries because they do not want to publicly declare their party and have their choice recorded. In the bad old days, Chicagoans equated declaring Republican with the future refusal or lessening of city services, etc.

The IEA sent out notices telling members that asking for a Republican ballot tomorrow will not obligate them to support the Republican Party in the future.

Comment by Oh Come On! Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 8:12 pm
what was being referred to is the continued process that requires every primary voter to publicly declare their party preference

Comment by Oh Come On! Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 8:14 pm
This “I” will be pulling an “R” ballot tomorrow and won’t be voting for Baron von Carhart. Over dinner tonight I was talking with my mother-in-law (lifelong “D”) who plans to pull an “R” tomorrow; never thought I would see the day but it has arrived.

I still think it is a long shot for Dillard but the anecdotal evidence is adding up.

Comment by RNUG Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 9:24 pm
==I still think it is a long shot for Dillard but the anecdotal evidence is adding up.==
Fly on you crazy diamond.

Comment by DuPage Rep Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 10:43 pm
Sorry, shine on

Comment by DuPage Rep Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 10:45 pm