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* Your final primary predictions?
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:43 am
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Rauner by 4%. Rutherford to blame for Dillards loss by not dropping out. Quinn beats Hardiman 55 to 45. Signaling major problems for the Quinn campaign with his own base. In the 115th, Terri Bryant over Bob White, 60 to 40. Kilquist over Mayville 51 to 49. Rauner contributes 20 million to his campaign fund at 11:59 pm.
Comment by John A Logan Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:47 am
Rauner 1. Illinois 0.
Comment by IbendahlLuvsJBT Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:49 am
Jeanne Ives wins and Oswego Willy throws a fit. Berrios-Guzzardi goes to a recount.
Tom Cross wins 62-38 and plays miniature golf.
Comment by Coles County Anti-Liberal Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:51 am
Dillard pulls the upset by 2%, DR gets around 6% and Brady 17-18%. A significant number of people who thought about voting for Rauner end up going a different direction and a lot of undecideds break for Dillard.
Comment by Wally Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:52 am
All house incumbents win.
Comment by Northwest Dem Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:52 am
Rauner 42, Dillard 35, Brady 15, Rutherford 8
Quinn gets 75%
Comment by Snucka Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:53 am
Rauner by 193 votes. Seriously, rauner by 7%.
Quinn by 10% or less. Low turnout.
To be for or against rauner is the only reason to show up. The antis are more passionate, but prob not enuf of them for dillard due to split vote. Thanks dan. Go away.
Comment by Langhorne Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:54 am
Apathy 75%, voters 25%.
Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:54 am
Rauner wins despite a late Dillard surge, at a margin close enough that Brady and especially Rutherford get criticized for staying in.
Quinn wins but not at the margin an incumbent should get against essentially a no-name opponent.
Davis beats Harold handily. Cross wins. Oberweis almost blows it.
Comment by Ron Burgundy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:54 am
1st district Cook County:
Boykin 43
Sercye 40
Carothers 10
Others 7
Comment by Northwest Dem Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:55 am
Please allow me to stray and predict a real horse race:
Northfield, OH - Race 8 - $1 Exacta Box - Scootin Bay (4) & Catch That Angel (5)
Comment by Hans Sanity Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:56 am
GOP Gov
Rauner 47
Dillard 37
Brady 15
Rutherford 1
Comment by Northwest Dem Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:56 am
Just FYI, comments on this post will be stopped at 7 pm.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:56 am
Mitchell gets 60%
Comment by Northwest Dem Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:59 am
Rauner: 38%, Dillard: 32%, Brady 20%, Rutherford: 9%.
Rauner ‘only’ wins by 6 points, story turns to how this is a disappointment and he might not be all that strong of a candidate despite running a good campaign and having all the money.
Quinn gets 65% and everyone freaks out, but really it’s because no one in Cook County voted/Dems pulling GOP ballots.
Post primary: The 2014 general starts to feel a bit like the 2006 race… not sure why and maybe it’s only a passing feeling. This race could end up becoming more about angry voters, but my guess is voters will be indifferent/not to excited about either candidate ala ‘06. Gotta wonder if a third party candidate jumps in (frankly, this probably should have been Rauner’s move).
Comment by From the 'Dale to HP Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:02 pm
Gov:
Rauner: 45
Dillard: 33
Brady: 14
Rutherford 8
Treasurer:
Grogan: 51
Cross: 49
Congress:
Davis: 62
Harold: 38
Comment by Frustrated Voter Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:02 pm
If this is 2006, is there room for a Rich Whitey?
Oh wait, Rauner is already running!
Comment by Northwest Dem Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:03 pm
Dillard wins by less than 1,000 votes. I have a feeling people changed their minds about Rauner the last two days.
Rutherford gets less than 3% and starts campaigning for his 2018 gubernatorial campaign run tomorrow.
Comment by Almost the Weekend Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:04 pm
Nausea, indigestion, heartburn, diarrhea and upset stomach.
Comment by William j Kelly Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:05 pm
Rauner +12
Oberweis +15
Quinn +40
R. Davis +30
Sandack +4
Mitchell +10
Guzzardi +2
Breen +2
Comment by phocion Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:06 pm
Pihos out.
Sullivan in.
Sandack in.
Berrios in.
Davis by 20%.
Brady gets less than 15% with difference going to Rauner.
Comment by Dirty Red Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:07 pm
Whoever thinks that Dillard still has a chance must have had 5 or 6 small batch bourbons
Comment by Cam Brady Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:13 pm
William Kelly jumps in to Lake Michigan in protest of Republicans, no in protest of Democrats, wait no in protest of Republicans… Yeah that’s it.
Comment by NuttyGOP Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:13 pm
Rauner 41%
Dillard 29%
Brady 23%
Rutherford 7%
Upset special: Truax
Comment by Eric Zorn Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:16 pm
BR — 38%
KD — 33%
BB — 22%
DR — 6%
Quinn — 70%
Comment by Wensicia Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:20 pm
Where are these 7 or 8 percent of Republicans voting for Rutherford? He’ll be lucky to crack 3. Is he first on the ballot or something?
Comment by Northwest Dem Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:21 pm
We were watching HGTV last night (yeah, we’re really wild and crazy) and saw a lot of Dillard ads.
He’s going after the “List it” voters, I think.
Comment by Soccermom Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:25 pm
Gov:
Rauner: 46
Dillard: 29
Brady: 17
Rutherford 8
Treasurer:
Grogan: 61
Cross: 39
11th:
Senger: 38
Miller: 32
Balkema: 23
Bayne: 6
Robbins: 1
US Senate:
Oberweis: 51
Truax: 49
Comment by TechGuy38 Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:26 pm
47th Ward, it’s more than apathy. Disgust. Each of the Republicans are ethically challenged from sexual harassment and the cover-up, to voting on legislation that helped his own business interest, to selling his principles for a union endorsement. And then there’s Rauner. Quinn never spoke out against Rod, well till the conviction.
Comment by midwaygardens Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:26 pm
Can’t see any reason to buck the polls in the big races.
My upset special of the week is Kentucky over Wichita State in the second round of the Big Dance.
Still, strange things can happen. Did you know there is not one mens college b-ball team from Illinois or Indiana in the tourney?
No Illini, no DePaul, no Loyola, no Bradley, no Southern, no Indiana, no Purdue, no Butler, no Notre Dame….
How weird is that?
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:30 pm
Rauner by 5
Cross by 8
Truax by 2
Davis by 30
Senger by 2
Sandack by 4
Breen by 6
Comment by Northern WIll Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:31 pm
1st district Cook County:
Boykin 35
Sercye 30
Carothers 25
Others 10
Comment by chad Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:35 pm
Interesting, many here predicting a comfortable Rauner win, but seems very few are actually voting for BR. And, many seem to hear stories of people voting against Rauner and turnout in Chicago light so far.
Comment by Wally Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:35 pm
Mitchell, Berrios, Andrade. On another note, regardless of individual races, IL Review continues to be smitten with headlining posts with Justin Bieber.
Comment by Midstate Indy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:36 pm
GOP Governor:
Rauner 47%
Dillard 35%
Brady 14%
Rutherford 4%
US GOP SENATE
Oberweis 55
Truax 45
IL GOP TREASURER
Grogin 50.5%
Cross 49.5%
Comment by Louis G. Atsaves Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:37 pm
Rutherford with the upset no one saw coming!
In all seriousness, Rauner wins with Dillard in second within five points. Brady at 20 and Rutherford at 10.
Comment by SirLankselot Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:38 pm
Rauner by 10.
Guzzardi by 4.
Putin by 94.7.
Comment by IrishPirate Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:40 pm
My Pontiac (not really bold) predictions:
GOP Gov
Rauner 46%
Dillard 31%
Brady 17%
Rutherford 6%
GOP Senate
Oberweis 69%
Truax 31%
GOP Treasurer
Cross 56%
Grogin 44%
Upset special: Dan Brinkman in the four way GOP primary in the 45th House.
Comment by Lunchbox Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:49 pm
Rauner 41%
Dillard 32%
Brady 21%
Rutherford 6%
Quinn 72%
Hardiman 28%
Mitchell 68%
Travis 32%
Berrios 53%
Guzzardi 47%
Sandack by 8%
Davis over Harold 82% to 18%
Comment by ronmexico Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:51 pm
What % would Tio need in order to mildly embarrass Quinn? Don’t think it will matter in eight months, just curious. I know Blago got about 71% in his 2006 primary.
Comment by Snucka Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:54 pm
There is an obvious cross over vote happening and the totals will be nowhere near what has been polled. Whether that is enough for Dillard is the question. I can’t predict exact numbers without more information but suffice it to say, I think Dillard has a small shot.
It will be interesting to see how the crossover affects Quinn’s totals as well.
Both elections will be closer than predicted.
Comment by Phineas J. Whoopee Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:55 pm
Forgot the Dem Gov race!
Quinn 69%
Hardiman 31%
Comment by Lunchbox Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:56 pm
Brady 33%
Dillard 32%
Rauner 31%
Rutherford 4%
Dillard demands a recount.
Rauner pays off Oberweis to drop out, gets appointed to run against Durbin.
Durbin freaks out about all that money being spent against him and drops out.
Burris appointed to run against Rauner.
Dillard beats Brady in the recount.
Obama does a TV ad for Dillard in the general.
Quinn beats Dillard with 100% of the vote with all precints reporting…just how he planned it all along…
Senator Burris sworn in for the second time, and this time they actually give him an office in DC.
Comment by N'ville Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 1:06 pm
Rauner wins with 39%.
Sandack, Pihos lose. Sullivan wins.
Mitchell, Andrade, Smith win. Berrios loses.
Comment by Frank Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 1:09 pm
GOP Governor:
Rauner 47%
Dillard 37%
Brady 12%
Rutherford 4%
US GOP SENATE
Oberweis 53
Truax 47
IL GOP TREASURER
Cross 54
Grogan 46
Comment by OneMan Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 1:23 pm
Quinn 85
Rauner 35-40
Rodney Davis Wins
Travis Wins
Guzzardi Wins
Boykin Wins 38 (in this order)
Carothers
Sercye
Smith
Other candidate
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 1:31 pm
More Dems and independents requesting GOP ballots than anyone might have guessed - regardless of whether it’s effective.
Comment by Linus Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 1:34 pm
And not a prediction as much as a hope but wishing all these guys stave off the Proft spending and he shuts up too
Comment by Downstate GOP Faithless Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 1:39 pm
Heavy Democratic crossover vote for Dillard enables him to edge out Rauner and causes Quinn to lose because of significantly lower Democratic turnout.
Game over.
Comment by Cassiopeia Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 1:51 pm
I will not win the Mega Millions drawing…
And Truax edges out Oberweis for US Senate (R).
Comment by Jake From Elwood Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 2:01 pm
Hey Cassiopeia, can I have some of what you’re smoking?
Comment by phocion Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 2:19 pm
Rauner 38
Dillard 34
Brady 22
Rutherford 6
As a Dem who can’t stomach voting for Quinn again (undercut my pension and my spouse’s), I’m rooting for Rauner and am about to go cast my vote for him. Would love to be able to vote for him in the fall. But Billionare Bruce’s checkbook will probably still win him the nomination, and I’ll be stuck looking for a third-party candidate in November.
Comment by Steve Downstate Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 2:46 pm
Yikes! I meant to say I’m rooting for DILLARD. Let’s hope I actually check the right name on the ballot!
Comment by Steve Downstate Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 2:48 pm
It’s a bit of a long shot but I’m guessing Rauner and Dillard end up more or less tied at a figure between 35% and 37%. The difference is only a couple of hundred votes and the presumptive loser calls for a recount.
Comment by RNUG Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 3:15 pm
“Prediction? — Pain” - Clubber Lang
Seriously, I don’t think there will be any surprising results tonight. None. Quinn’s margin of victory might surprise, but a small sample size will make it mean nothing.
Comment by Try-4-Truth Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 3:16 pm
If only Cass, if only. That would be freaking awesome.
Besides the crossover, there is surely to be a fair number of vote switchers going from Brady or Rutherford to Dillard, and some will go to Rauner as well. Folks like to vote for a winner, and almost no one believes either of them can win. That plus the crossover says this could be much closer than anyone anticipates, but at the end of the day, I give Dillard one chance in five.
Comment by Jimbo Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 3:23 pm
Either Brady or Rutherford that is, but especially Rutherford.
Comment by Jimbo Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 3:26 pm
I predict that the people of Illinois will not win.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 3:28 pm
What the hell…
Rauner
Dillard
Brady
Rodney Davis
Anne Callis
Morita
Santos
Houlihan
Winters
Mitchell
Guzzardi
Andrade
five points separate Sercye, Boykin & Carothers
Comment by Carl Nyberg Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 3:37 pm
Christian Mitchell wins
Toni Berrios wins
Nancy Schiavone wins
Ike Carrothers wins
any one or all of these predictions could be wrong. Just my gut.
Comment by Labordude Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 3:47 pm
Treasurer
Tom Cross - 65
Bob Brogan - 35
16th CD
Kinzinger - 60
Hale - 40
Comment by connor Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 4:08 pm
*Grogan, not Brogan. Stupid autocorrect.
Comment by connor Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 4:09 pm
Governor
Rauner - 42
Dillard - 33
Brady - 19
Rutherford - 6
Quinn- 65
Hardiman- 35
13th Congressional
Davis- 70
Harold- 28
Firsching -2
Gollin -46
Callis -44
Green -10
I’m not sure what the Democratic race is actually polling at, but I am a dem house in that district (pulling a GOP ballot this time) & Gollin has been working it like crazy.
Also - Campbell beats Barr by 7 points in Sangamon County Sheriff’s race.
Comment by Blue Dog Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 6:01 pm
Rauner - 40%
Dillard - 36%
Brady - 19%
Rutherford - 5%
Oberweis 53%
Truax 47%
Grogan: 44
Cross: 56
Davis +23%
Sandack by >1%, will be up late on this one.
Comment by Pre Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 6:21 pm
Rauner - 42
Dillard - 32
Brady - 20
Rutherford - 6
Oberweis by 10
Cross by 5
After reading all the Berrios stuff, wins by 75 total votes; turnout, controlled turnout rules the day.
Sandack wins - Ugly
Ives wins
Pihos and Breen go to “Sundown Tomorrow.” Too close to call…literally.
Rodney Davis clears 75%
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 6:45 pm
“After reading all the Berrios stuff, Toni Berrios wins by 75 total votes; turnout, controlled turnout rules the day.”
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 6:46 pm
In the Big Ones, (D) PQ: 66% to Tio’s 34%. (R) Rauner: 43%; Dillard: 29%; Brady: 20%; Rutherford: 8%. Also, Oberweis easily wins. I wouldn’t expect too many Shockers anywhere else.
Comment by Just The Way It Is One Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 7:03 pm