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* I don’t see how these horse race numbers released by Lt. Gov. Sheila Simon prove much of anything…
One survey, taken by Lake Research Partners in late January, show that Sheila Simon, who’s giving up her spot as lieutenant governor to run for comptroller, trails veteran GOP incumbent Judy Baar Topinka by a fairly narrow 39 percent to 32 percent among likely general election voters. 29 percent were undecided or not answering.
* And this finding assumes that Simon will have the money to deliver such a punch…
Team Simon also points to a finding that just 35 percent give Ms. Topinka a “good” or “excellent” job rating, while 46 percent rate it “fair” or “poor.” And, when voters were asked about Ms. Topinka’s drawing of a large pension, those surveyed were heavily negative. Look for that to crop up as a line of attack by Ms. Simon against Ms. Topinka this fall.
The survey also found that 44 percent of those surveyed want a change in the comptroller’s office, while 27 percent want to continue current policies. It has an error margin of plus or minus 4 percent.
Simon was using the results of that poll to fundraise in February. We’ll see how she did soon.
* And this is kind of interesting…
The survey found Mr. Cross ahead 34 percent to 30 percent over the Democratic nominee, state Sen. Michael Frerichs, with Mr. Cross getting an impressive 21 percent of the vote in heavily Democratic Chicago.
That poll was taken March 6 and 7 and had an error margin of plus or minus 4.8 percent.
posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Mar 21, 14 @ 12:53 pm
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@FakeSheilaSimon - look @Capitolfax, the other polls I had seen had me down 15 and 12. Being down 7 Rocks! #NumberTwoInGovtNoNumberTwoRunningAlone
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Mar 21, 14 @ 12:57 pm
@FakeSheilaSimon - My next poll will show that 18% know I am the daughter of a Simon: “Paul” #GeneticsLotto #AsLongAsItHelpsWhoCares
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Mar 21, 14 @ 12:59 pm
@FakeMikeFrerichs - Yikes! Trailing Tom Cross in Simon Poll. Better start making up better votes I didn’t take to catch up. #TallTales
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Mar 21, 14 @ 1:01 pm
I find it hard to believe that 44% of those surveyed had the faintest idea what the comptroller’s office does,let alone want a change in the office. It must have been a seriously loaded question to get that result.
Comment by And I Approved This Message Friday, Mar 21, 14 @ 1:03 pm
@FakeSheilaSimon - what @Capitolfax failed to mention is that I am only trailing by 6 in Carbondale. #SameOleResult
@FakeSheilaSimon - again, if you look at my polling against the GOP Nominee for AG, I lead by 3! #WhyDidYouForsakeMeLisa
@FakeSheilaSimon - when asked, those polled thought I would make a better AG than Topinka 33-31. Take that! #DidYouKnowAttyGenWasMyFirstChoice
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Mar 21, 14 @ 1:06 pm
“when voters were asked about Ms. Topinka’s drawing of a large pension, those surveyed were heavily negative. Look for that to crop up as a line of attack by Ms. Simon against Ms. Topinka this fall.”
The Topinka retort was that Simon should be doing better because she is Paul Simon’s daughter, but how many voters honestly remember Paul Simon? Most of my generation probably don’t even know who he is.
Comment by Precinct Captain Friday, Mar 21, 14 @ 1:12 pm
@FakeSheilaSimon - being down 7 to a statewide official is really good considering. #WoopsGuessImStatewideTooMyBad
@FakeSheilaSimon - wait until the Unions rally in this race. The numbers will change, alright, alright! #DidntGetTheMemo #DidntGetTheNod
@FakeSheilaSimon - any donation will do; $1K to one Banjo string. #KeepingAboveWaterIsToughOnYourOwn
@FakeSheilaSimon - it might seem odd touting a poll I trail in, but given my solo political history, seeing single digits should be applauded. #LemonsLemonade
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Mar 21, 14 @ 1:14 pm
(Rauner +1.25% +105) vs. (Quinn -1.25% -105)
(Cross +.5% +110) vs. (Frerichs -.5% +100)
(Topinka-5.5% -150) vs. (Simon + 5.5% +150)
Comment by North Shore Joe Friday, Mar 21, 14 @ 1:17 pm
==And I Approved This Message - Friday, Mar 21, 14 @ 1:03 pm:
I find it hard to believe that 44% of those surveyed had the faintest idea what the comptroller’s office does,let alone want a change in the office. It must have been a seriously loaded question to get that result. ==
You took the words right out of my mouth. Unless everyone they polled was a provider or a vendor who is directly impacted by the state’s failure to pay bills on time, I can’t see how such a large percentage would even be able to assess whether the Comptroller’s Office was doing a good job or not.
Comment by ??? Friday, Mar 21, 14 @ 1:17 pm
===had the faintest idea what the comptroller’s office does,let alone want a change in the office==
You must’ve missed the last six months of Rauner’s TV ads. People no likey the government here.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Mar 21, 14 @ 1:18 pm
@FakeSheilaSimon - it’s not like I had a choice taking on, arguably, the most popular Republican in IL, ok. #PatImLeaving #OhNoLisaYouSaid #NowWhat #LastOption
@FakeSheilaSimon - I look forward to campaigning and telling the voters about AG solutions for the Comptroller’s Office #SquarePegRoundHoleApproach
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Mar 21, 14 @ 1:24 pm
When voters rejected Topinka in 2006, they immediately had remorse when Blagojevich was impeached and removed from office. In similar cases when voters reject a candidate to discover that their choice was a criminal, a louse or a scumbag, the loser receives a bit of voter immunity, as though voters are apologizing for their earlier mistake of rejecting that candidate.
Topinka is clearly a beneficiary of her 2006 misfortune. Her standing among Illinoisans rose as Blagojevich went to prison. Her long-term style of remaining in a fiduciary statewide function, as first Treasurer, and now Comptroller, keeps her viable.
Simon chose poorly by taking Topinka on. Judy has become the Michael J. Madigan of GOP statewide office holders. She has become the GOP candidate Democratic voters can embrace as atonement for their support of the hated Mr. Blagojevich.
I bet Rich knows of a few other examples of electoral losers who benefited by losing to a victor who imploded, making the loser appear more attractive to voters. Sometimes losers win.
Topinka has.
Comment by VanillaMan Friday, Mar 21, 14 @ 1:25 pm
@OW at 1:06pm — I love that @FakeSheilaSimon is now using @JoinTomCross hashtags! #DidYouKnowAttyGenWasMyFirstChoice
Comment by Lottie O'Neill Friday, Mar 21, 14 @ 1:28 pm
@FakeSheilaSimon - my numbers will rise when voters understand I have a Law Degree and Ms.Topinka doesn’t. #CredentiallyBiased #MakesCentsToMe
@FakeSheilaSimon - Fiscally speaking, money well spent; commission a poll and publish results of me trailing. Will bring that common sense to the office #Got3QuartersForADollar
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Mar 21, 14 @ 1:30 pm
Meh, I think Sheila has Duke going to the Final Four in her bracket.
Comment by wordslinger Friday, Mar 21, 14 @ 1:32 pm
Seriously, Sanguinetti must base her speaking style off Sarah Palin.
Did anyone else notice that?
Comment by Laflin Friday, Mar 21, 14 @ 1:33 pm
Tom will get his “Day”.
Plus, I am hoping for a golf outing invite from Cross! #FingersCrossEd #CheckingPhoneYepStillWorks
@FakeSheilaSimon - Loyalty ranked low in the poll, so I should be ok if some think leaving Pat is bad #DanceWithTheOneWhoBrungYa
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Mar 21, 14 @ 1:35 pm
forgot all about the Topinka takes a pension and a salary thing. how is that possible? government employees who retire from, say, Chicago or Cook County, cannot then get a State job unless they defer the pension.
garage sale Topinka seems kinda greedy. and that needs more emphasis. it may be legal, but it sure is disingenuous.
Comment by Amalia Friday, Mar 21, 14 @ 1:37 pm
I have a poll that swears I am doing ok… Yeah it was a phone survey of the members of the Illinois Banjo Association, but that is a representative sample.
Did I mention my dad is Paul Simon?
Comment by OneMan Friday, Mar 21, 14 @ 1:43 pm
@FakeSheilaSimon - I look forward to Labor Day weekend, and the kickoff to the real campaigning with all my Labor friends #Crickets
@FakeSheilaSimon - poll shows I am on pace where I need to be #RunningToStandStill
@FakeSheilaSimon - look, I trail by 7; it appears everyone is overlooking my 4 point lead over “Undecided” #SilverLiningsPlaybook
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Mar 21, 14 @ 1:50 pm
Amalia - Judy does not collect a pension .
Comment by State Worker Friday, Mar 21, 14 @ 1:51 pm
@FakeSheilaSimon - I do really question the validity of the poll, and who commissioned it, and it’s results. #OopsMyBad
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Mar 21, 14 @ 1:54 pm
I like Sheila, but among Republicans and Independents in Illinois Judy rules. If my recollection is correct she has been on the statewide ballot 5 times and has led the R ticket in votes 4 times.
Comment by steve schnorf Friday, Mar 21, 14 @ 1:57 pm
@ State Worker, thanks. read something to the contrary.
Comment by Amalia Friday, Mar 21, 14 @ 1:58 pm
Here is a link that Mrs. Simon might want to take a look at.
http://www.law.siu.edu/Faculty_staff/employment.php
Comment by John A Logan Friday, Mar 21, 14 @ 2:00 pm
If Rahm is a Republican Democrat, Judy is a Democratic Republican.
Comment by North Shore Joe Friday, Mar 21, 14 @ 2:01 pm
Bill Brady’s poll had him at 32% a week before the election. When you commission a poll, you’re generally allowed to poll the electorate that you want to imagine rather than the electorate that you’ll have on Election Day.
Comment by Snucka Friday, Mar 21, 14 @ 2:03 pm
Pat Quinn should send Sheila flowers…
Comment by A guy... Friday, Mar 21, 14 @ 2:04 pm
@FakeSarahGarfunkle-Hey if Paul Simons daughter can win because of her dad was so can I! #teamupwithsheila
Comment by SO IL M Friday, Mar 21, 14 @ 2:07 pm
Illinois would be better off if we combined the Comptroller and treasurers offices. you know do more with less like Teachers, cops, fireman and all state workers are forced too. Oh thats right madigan and Cullerton refused to let that happen.
Comment by fed up Friday, Mar 21, 14 @ 2:36 pm
“Judy rules” simply because she earns our respect by performing her job openly and effectively.
She communicates with more clarity, honesty, and straightforward support of our state — than all the other Statewide Officers, (except maybe Bill Holland).
Comment by Walker Friday, Mar 21, 14 @ 3:18 pm
@FakeSheilaSimon - I want to wish everyone a very Happy New Year #TwoMonthsTooLate #Pattern
@FakeSheilaSimon - Thinking about 2014. New Year’s Resolutions? #BetterPolitcalMoves #OopsTooLate
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Mar 21, 14 @ 3:35 pm
Well, no shocker here, really. A nice lady with strongly-held, progressive views, Sheila is. But she picked the wrong Race against JBT, Ms. Lovable, who just has garnered too many Admirers–even aMONG a good chunk of Progressive Dems. and Independents in aDDITion to her usual GOP base by things like taking vocal stances in support of SSM–created and fostered over many years of dedicated Public Service in various Positions of Leadership, has demonstrated competence in those slots, all the while displaying good will, a hearty sense of humor, and who just has that European/Czech-American down-to-earth, fun-loving, and yet serious way about her when called-for, in how she is so well able to adeptly, and comfortably, relate to the Electorate.
Sheia’s not OUT of it by any means, but facing Ms. Popularity, kind of like the Betty White of Illinois Politics (albeit much younger), she’s going to have a real tough row to hoe, and just should’ve stuck with Pat Quinn as Lt. Gov., and likely would have had a much better shot at emerging with 4 more years in a Highly-Respectable Statewide Elected Office in which to serve the People of Illinois…!
Comment by Just The Way It Is One Friday, Mar 21, 14 @ 4:27 pm
Actually, I’m ecstatic that Sheila jumped ship. Vallas is more competent than she or Quinn for that matter.
I’m looking forward to voting against Cross. As should every public sector employee and retiree.
Comment by Norseman Friday, Mar 21, 14 @ 4:28 pm