Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar

Poll: Rauner up by 3, Durbin up by 14

Posted in:

Illinois
Polls

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Illinois Voters shows Republican businessman Bruce Rauner picking up 43% of the vote to Quinn’s 40%. Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate in the race, while 10% are undecided.

The latest Rasmussen statewide poll finds Durbin picking up 51% of the vote to State Senator Jim Oberweis’ 37%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate in the race, while 10% are undecided.

More here and here.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Apr 14, 14 @ 2:50 pm

Comments

Sample just over/about 800?

Durbin over 51% in April; fair shape, work to do.

Quinn at 40% in April; loads of work to do.

Rauner leading, but if you can’t identify, harvest, and finally “vote” all those Pluses, then Rauner ’s Crew is just a high paid Brady Crew come Election Day. Field Operations are critical. A 3 point lead in April with $12 million spent and with no Ground Game to speak of; Rauner’s Crew has their work cut out for them too.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Apr 14, 14 @ 2:56 pm
Not surprised.

Comment by VanillaMan Monday, Apr 14, 14 @ 2:57 pm
I wonder how many “Rauner” supporters are actually “anybody not Quinn”. I bet the bulk of them.

Comment by Walker Monday, Apr 14, 14 @ 3:00 pm
Considering how much time Rauner spent attacking Quinn in the primary, the three point lead should have him very concerned.

He’s got his message out there, and Quinn hasn’t. This seems to show that Quinn has a real chance.

I really thought Rauner would be up by 12

Comment by Smoggie Monday, Apr 14, 14 @ 3:01 pm
Not surprised. Reflects Democrats overall soft support and Governor Quinn’s very soft support levels.

Comment by NW Illinois Dem Monday, Apr 14, 14 @ 3:03 pm
If I were Quinn, Rauner up by three today sounds good to me (especially from Rasmussen).

On TV, Rauner’s been filling in his blank slate and kicking the stuff out of Quinn for months without any real answer. That’s going to change.

Given Quinn’s low approval rating, the disadvantages of governing in hard times, his heavy record of controversial decisions,,,, three percent is pretty sweet, today.

Also, if I were Quinn, I’d say:

“Hey, Rahm! You endorsed me! Want to tap that legendary fundraising network for me, your choice for Illinois governor! Where’s the love, cousin?”

Yeah, I wouldn’t count on that last bit.

Comment by wordslinger Monday, Apr 14, 14 @ 3:12 pm
Snark heavily intended here, but these are the same people who brought us Governors Raushenberger, Brady and likely Topinka by a point or two.

They surely can’t be as bad as We Ask America’s 20-point victory by Gov. Rauner in last month’s primary.

Comment by Polling Blunders Monday, Apr 14, 14 @ 3:13 pm
Neither candidate is going to send anyone running to the polls. I would bet this will be one of the lowest turnout in years. Nothing would surprise me from Illinois voters after Blagojevich was elected for his second term.

Comment by Holdingontomywallet Monday, Apr 14, 14 @ 3:20 pm
This looks good for Quinn. He hasn’t even begun to fight.

Comment by Try-4-Truth Monday, Apr 14, 14 @ 3:22 pm
Surprising Rauner is only up 3. That should have him worried. More ads with his “Democratic” wife won’t help that. Field operation will be key.

Durbin will win by 5-7 more points than that.

Comment by k3 Monday, Apr 14, 14 @ 3:22 pm
Looks like a repeat of 2010 thus far.

Comment by Jorge Monday, Apr 14, 14 @ 3:23 pm
I read this in a news feed. I seem to remember the report saying this poll reported a super high number of people as “decided”- someone help me out here. If that’s the case, that 10% undecided is a group that must have the same type of issues in common. Rauner locks them up and it’s light’s out. Quinn gets them and you’re looking at a late, late election night.

Comment by A guy... Monday, Apr 14, 14 @ 3:26 pm
For two cycles in a row, Rasmussen has shown a +4 bias towards Republicans, on average, at a national level. They really got it wrong in IL in 2010, as did everyone. Read more here: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/10/which-polls-fared-best-and-worst-in-the-2012-presidential-race/

Comment by Empty Chair Monday, Apr 14, 14 @ 3:28 pm
===I really thought Rauner would be up by 12===

Me too. I think a 3 point lead at this point bodes ill for Mr. Rauner. I think he peaked on March 18.

Comment by Mighty M. Mouse Monday, Apr 14, 14 @ 3:32 pm
Four years ago, Brady was up BIG at this point. This poll was from 4/21/2010: http://www.illinoisobserver.net/tag/quinn-brady-poll/

Comment by Anonymous Monday, Apr 14, 14 @ 3:32 pm
To echo most others, this is good news for Quinn. Down 3% by Rasmussen means even or even ahead in the real world, and the electorate has seen nothing but Rauner attacks on Quinn for the whole year.

Also, maybe slightly off topic, I’d bet the “anybody but Rauner” crowd is much more likely to vote than the “anybody but Quinn” crowd.

Comment by Chi Monday, Apr 14, 14 @ 3:32 pm
OW: if they polled about 800 people, then Quinn is within the margin of error (3.5%).

Comment by Nonplussed Monday, Apr 14, 14 @ 3:35 pm
As Rauner goes considerably towards the middle, and with no GOP base from Jump Street, and moving away from the GOP towards Moderates/Indies and non-traditional GOP voters, it will be beyond critical … beyond critical … that two things occur to bake his winning cake;

Identify and actually vote all the ID’d “Plusses” at an unbelieveable rate, to identify those “Pluses” as GOP pluses or actual “I am for Bruce” pluses.

Why?

Rauner’s Crew’s cake is non-tradtional. There is no clear indication that the GOP voters are, or will be, voting, and voting for Rauner.

1/3 of the General Assembly GOP is corrupt.

Sangamon County may have had a large number of crossovers to vote in the Primary, and given the results, is that going to be good or bad for a Rauner in baking a cake, based on abysmal downstate numbers for Quinn.

The infrastructor for the Rauner Crew will dictate the 3 point lead actually being real to grow upon with the ingredients of thier cake, or it could very well fall flat, with no GOTV, and no understanding how the ingredients are mixed and baked and then iced.

They are at $12 million and rising well beyond all our thoughts, but if you can’t vote your “Pluses”, especially against Quinn and the Unions, tough sledding awaits.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Apr 14, 14 @ 3:36 pm
If Rauner and Durbin both win, that would mean perhaps ten percent of voters would opt for both of them, even though Durbin is every bit as liberal as Quinn, if not moreso. Except on abortion, Rauner’s positions are pretty close to the Milkman’s.

Comment by cicero Monday, Apr 14, 14 @ 3:39 pm
- Nonplussed -,

Agreed, but an incumbent below 50%, and within the margin, in a sanpshot in April, has the “trend is not your friend” written all over it.

Run like you are behind, not like, “Whew, we are in the margin of error.”

If it stays close all the way through, it bevomes who do you bet can get their people “out”. The Unions learned what Rauner thought was a good Field Op. There was the “20 point win” thrown around, based on people loving to come and vote for Bruce. A great deal was shown with a Field Operation exposed at it was, or a lack thereof.

The Unions will not make the same mistake.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Apr 14, 14 @ 3:42 pm
Margin of error is +/- 4. Without seeing the crosstabs it is difficult to characterize the undecideds. Still, this is a snapshot of public opinion right now and seems about right. As usual, this election will come down to GOTV work regardless of how many ads Rauner can afford to run.

As a point of reference, Rasmussen polled in April 2010 and Brady led 45-38.

Comment by Snucka Monday, Apr 14, 14 @ 3:45 pm
Context:

FOX News/POR-Rasmussen
10/30/10

1000 LV

Brady 44

Quinn 38

Brady +6

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/governor/il/illinois_governor_brady_vs_quinn-1361.html

Comment by Bill White Monday, Apr 14, 14 @ 3:47 pm
http://chicagotonight.wttw.com/2014/04/11/rauner-quinn-feisty-first-face-face-meeting

Will Mr. Rauner pick up a large segment of State retirees in the future after saying they will keep their 3% compounded COLA (see link)?

Comment by Tsavo Monday, Apr 14, 14 @ 4:00 pm
–Will Mr. Rauner pick up a large segment of State retirees in the future after saying they will keep their 3% compounded COLA (see link)?–

That was confusing, but he did say that. Sybillizing.

Let’s face it, the dude will say anything. He wants the gig. You get bodyguards, people open doors for you and you can see yourself on TV any time you want.

Money can’t buy that, necessarily.

Comment by wordslinger Monday, Apr 14, 14 @ 4:05 pm
Is up 3 percent with the primary bump? if so, VERY SCARY, for the almighty!!!

Comment by poll watcher Monday, Apr 14, 14 @ 4:06 pm
What wordslinger said.

Comment by ChinaTown Monday, Apr 14, 14 @ 4:17 pm
Bill White:

No poll within ten days of election day should give voters the option of saying they are “undecided.”

We have three polls across six months all showing Quinn at 39-41 percent.

In 2010, he had been on the job less than two years, and many voters gave Quinn the benefit of the doubt. They like him, and they didn’t think it was fair to hold him accountable for less than a full term.

Now, he has been on the job for more than five years.

Team Quinn CANNOT make the mistake of comparing 2014 to 2010. It is not 2010, and Rauner is not Brady.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Monday, Apr 14, 14 @ 4:18 pm
wordslinger:

I think Rauner can probably afford bodyguards.

Police escort is hard to come by though.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Monday, Apr 14, 14 @ 4:20 pm
YDD, agreed, but there is also less of a GOP tailwind at this point and Durbin at the top of the ticket trying to push GOTV for Bustos and Callis. Can’t fight the last war, but I like PQ’s chances.

Comment by in the know Monday, Apr 14, 14 @ 4:22 pm
Tailwinds are over-rated. A good sled dog likes to have the wind and snow blowing right in his face.

Durbin at the top of the ticket is not going to help Quinn with GOTV unless the race tightens up considerably, which seems unlikely.

You don’t get couch potatoes to the polls with a 12 point lead.

And speaking of polls, have you seen Quinn’s polling in those two Congressional districts? I would not bet on huge turnouts helping Quinn.

Quinn nearly lost Madison and St. Clair counties to Tio in the Primary.

There is a word in politics for campaigns who expect other people to do the work for them.

@ in the know

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Monday, Apr 14, 14 @ 4:37 pm
–I think Rauner can probably afford bodyguards.–

Not the same, man. Bodyguards by law — money can’t buy that.

Comment by wordslinger Monday, Apr 14, 14 @ 4:37 pm
=== — money can’t buy that.===

Yep.

Can’t by the prestige of being called “Governor” either.

Money tries to buy all kinds of things about a person too.

Rauner can afford it, no doubt. Rauner hasn’t earned the right to have it, and only an election and raising your hand and taking the oath makes it all the more sweeter.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Apr 14, 14 @ 4:45 pm
True. Bodyguards by law is another deal altogether.

Still, a lot of baseball to be played between now and October.

It would be great to have a round of predictions and check back in at the all-star break.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Monday, Apr 14, 14 @ 4:53 pm
YDD, again agreed. I guess I just don’t see PQ playing Scarlett “I’ve always relied upon the kindness of strangers” o’hara. I think he loves this fight in a way he has never loved a political fight before. After all, Rauner is his antithesis. will be fun to watch.

Comment by in the know Monday, Apr 14, 14 @ 5:01 pm
Almost 4 years ago I predicted that Governor will win even polls were showing Brady with over 10 points lead. Take it to the bank. Governor Quinn will be ‘re-elected with bigger margin than 4 years ago.

Comment by Commonsense Monday, Apr 14, 14 @ 5:26 pm
Quinn by 5+ in the General.
Double D won’t spend a dime and win by 12.

Comment by Mr. T. Monday, Apr 14, 14 @ 5:31 pm
OW @4:45 - That was quite close to an endorsement of Gov Rauner - Attaboy I knew you had it in you.

Comment by A Citizen Monday, Apr 14, 14 @ 5:32 pm
I will probably not be endorsing Bruce Rauner for governor.

If Rauner’s Crew even cared to even think about me, which I seriously doubt is on the radar there, they are wise enough to conclude my ednorsement and $5 will get you a cup of coffee, the same as that $5 dollars gets that coffee too.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Apr 14, 14 @ 5:46 pm
–It would be great to have a round of predictions and check back in at the all-star break.–

It will be Rauner or Quinn. You heard it here first.

Beat you to a “prediction,” YDD.

Comment by wordslinger Monday, Apr 14, 14 @ 5:46 pm
And that, folks, is why the Gold Shoe is named for word.

Comment by Arthur Andersen Monday, Apr 14, 14 @ 5:58 pm
Quinn by +5 over Rauner. Polls will continually show Quinn trailing. But on election night, Quinn will come through.

I was actually pretty impressed with Quinn v. Rauner last week. Quinn got a bit excited, but he trounced Rauner.

Problem with Rauner is he will continually go negative for entire campaign. His will be a campaign light on actual policy and voters will eventually sour.

Folks I’ve talked to seem not to like Quinn, but they despise Rauner. The consensus seems to be that he’s a rich guy playing “let’s try and become a governor this year.” The taint of the Kochs and Walker is all over Rauner — and he’s not doing himself any favors by continually going negative and then bringing on his wife to try and soften. Doesn’t work.

Comment by Macbeth Monday, Apr 14, 14 @ 6:16 pm
Obviously President Obama isn’t on the ticket this time, but if he swooped in a couple times with public rallies for Quinn on the South Side, could that GOTV effect do something for Quinn, at the very least combating any Meeks effects?

Comment by Precinct Captain Monday, Apr 14, 14 @ 6:16 pm
First, I doubt Obama is going to risk his political neck on Quinn. For what, exactly? If Rahm can’t do it? Ellen Degeneres? Martin Sheen?

Secondly, anyone predicting a five point win for Quinn is…nutty.

Quinn only beat Brady by .7%, and didn’t break 50%.

You don’t have Scott Lee Cohen or Rich Whitney running this time, so there is an easier path for Quinn to get to 50%, but just barely.

Lisa Madigan got 50.3% in 2002, and Quinn has a tougher row to hoe.

In fact, Quinn should probably be asking Rahm Emanuel to do everything he can to help circulate petitions for Chad Grimm, the Libertarian candidate for governor, who could really go after the 2nd Amendment vote outside of the metro area.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Monday, Apr 14, 14 @ 7:50 pm
OW

I am endorsing Quinn.

Comment by Jacob S Monday, Apr 14, 14 @ 8:34 pm
You beat Rauner by succeeding in governing. If Quinn wants to win, he addresses the State’s problems. The more problems addressed, the better he looks. Voters want to reelect good governors, not crappy ones. Rauner wouldn’t stand a chance if Quinn and the Democrats governed well and gave Illinois a fighting chance towards our future.

Quinn is behind because he is a lousy governor. If he wins, he will still be a lousy governor. What he has to do is convince enough voters that Rauner would be worse than lousy.

Nice.

Comment by VanillaMan Monday, Apr 14, 14 @ 8:35 pm
==I just don’t see PQ playing Scarlett “I’ve always relied upon the kindness of strangers” o’hara. ==

That wasn’t Scarlett Ohara. Blanche DuBois said that. They were pretty different characters and PQ doesn’t remind me of either one, so I’m not sure what your point is.

Comment by Responsa Monday, Apr 14, 14 @ 8:37 pm
–First, I doubt Obama is going to risk his political neck on Quinn.–

How would it be possible for Obama to “risk his political neck on Quinn?” What’s Obama running for?

Get over it. The black dude from the South Side won. Twice. With no help from any “yellow dogs.”

I have no idea what you’re talking about. What does that mean?

I think any president, of any party, in his second term, would be very happy to stump for a governor who has been a 100% supporter through six very difficult years, if that governor wants him.

Quinn has been a 100% Obama supporter from day one.

A big, fat, bald,, Irish Catholic supporter from the West Side. Not always the most popular position at the post-mass coffee, or in the taverns on the West Side, but the times, they are a changing.

I think Quinn wants him. If Obama doesn’t go whole hog for Quinn against Rauner, then….. the rules of the house forbid me from expressing myself.

Third, if Obama has any LBJ in him, he’d go whole hog for Quinn to stick it to Rahm.

Rahm is Rauner’s buddy. Rahm was a horrible, selfish chief of staff to the president of the United States.

He was a spinmaster punk. If things went well, he was out front and took credit. If things went bad, he was no where to be found and talking trash behind Obama’s back.

This old reporter had no problem reading between the lines on the NY Times and Wash Post stories and columns that, in bad times, were kicking the stuff out of Obama.

Basically, the hook would be, “insiders say, if only Obama had listened to Emanuel……”

Gee, I wonder who those insiders were.

Emanuel was an awful, disloyal chief of staff and he’s shown nothing as mayor. He’s a fundraiser and a spinmaster. And a punk.

Who needs him?

Comment by wordslinger Monday, Apr 14, 14 @ 9:44 pm
Right on, Word. Right on.

Comment by Yep Monday, Apr 14, 14 @ 10:20 pm
And PQ within the MOE at this point is much better than the 10 or 11 points I expected PQ to be down right now.

Comment by Yep Monday, Apr 14, 14 @ 10:26 pm
@Wordslinger:

Obama sticking it to Rahm? That would be fun to watch. I believe he supported Rahm for mayor, so highly doubtful.

What Obama has to risk is the prestige of the Presidency. It is one thing to lose a toss up race in Georgia, Florida, Ohio or even Hawaii, states where I think Obama could prolly do much good.

Heck, Michigan and Colorado have tight Senate and Gov races.

But lose a toss up race for governor in Illinois, and, well…let’s just say you better not lose.

Maybe I am wrong. You are right that Quinn backed Obama way back in 2004 for US Senate. I don’t recall seeing much of President Obama in Quinn’s Primary or the General election in 2010, but that could have been too close to the Blago trial for comfort.

Time will tell.

And for the record, I was for Obama and against Rod long before either were trendy, so in the words of our host…

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Monday, Apr 14, 14 @ 11:09 pm
@Yep:

David Miller got 41% of the vote in 2010. Nothing against Miller, but Topinka’s 53% is just about as good as you can expect. Kirk won with 48%.

So, if you were honestly expecting a 12 point gap at this point, you need to understand that 41% is floor for a Democrat. Rauner should be up at 46 or 47 right now, but he did just take a pretty serious beating, and it is not unusual for support for a challenger to be a wee soft/noncommittal at this stage.

Quinn is at 40, and that is what he needs to focus on, not worrying about what Rauner is at.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Monday, Apr 14, 14 @ 11:21 pm
YDD, I have no idea what you’re talking about when it comes to politics. I
think that makes two of us.

I would be stunned if Obama didn’t go whole hog for Quinn. Makes no sense.
Not like there’s a surplus of white Irish guys who want the president on
their side.

Where are you coming from, man?

As far as Obama supporting Rahm, he kicked him out the door. And good
riddance

. Obama gave tepid support for Rahm over Carol and Chico. What a risk.

Rahm was a horrible, selfish, chief of staff. Hit the wayback machine and
read the nasty stuff that Rahm peddled on Obama when the Tea Party was on
the rise in 2010 and things were going south.

Awful man, a backstabber in hard times, not a friend, and not a guy you’d want in a
foxhole.

Comment by wordslinger Monday, Apr 14, 14 @ 11:30 pm
This race would have been over by Labor Day, if not sooner if Dillard was the nominee. Dillard had the GOP base, unions, crossovers and minority support as well. But hey Rauner likes buying elections and his consultants will have a good year - let’s just hope they spend some of that money in IL.

Comment by funny boy Tuesday, Apr 15, 14 @ 6:48 am
This is why you should take every Rasmussen poll with a grain of “conservative bias” salt: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2014-national-house-race#!selectedpoll=19215&selected=Democrat

Comment by Researcher Thursday, Apr 17, 14 @ 11:03 am